2015 Projections / Predictions

Been working on the following projections for this season, assuming that the most recent Home/Road results vs every other opponent in 2014/2013, are going to repeat themselves for each team in 2015.

For the Caps, the projections for 2015 would be:

• Points: 55 (setting new club record with 15W-9L-10T)
  
• MLS Western Conference Standings: 3rd
  
• MLS Overall Standings: 3rd
  
• MLS Cup Playoffs: Play-in Round

What's yours?

 

Cascadia Cup - Projected Scores:

Date	Home Team	Road Team	Home Score	Road Score
2015-03-28	Vancouver Whitecaps	Portland Timbers	0	3
2015-04-26	Seattle Sounders	Portland Timbers	2	0
2015-05-02	Portland Timbers	Vancouver Whitecaps	3	0
2015-05-16	Vancouver Whitecaps	Seattle Sounders	1	0
2015-06-28	Portland Timbers	Seattle Sounders	2	4
2015-07-18	Portland Timbers	Vancouver Whitecaps	3	0
2015-08-01	Seattle Sounders	Vancouver Whitecaps	0	1
2015-08-30	Seattle Sounders	Portland Timbers	2	0
2015-09-19	Vancouver Whitecaps	Seattle Sounders	1	0

Standings:

Rank	Team	P	W	L	T	GS	GA	Pts	GD
1	Portland Timbers	6	3	3	0	11	8	9	+3
2	Seattle Sounders	6	3	3	0	8	5	9	+3
3	Vancouver Whitecaps	6	3	3	0	3	9	9	-6

Results:

Portland Timbers to win on Goals Scored (11) with 3 teams finish level on points, and the Top-2 level on GD.
Portland Timber to win the Cascadia Cup for the 1st time since 2012,
and move ahead of Seattle Sounders on All-Time Titles Count (4-3):​

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_Cup#Previous_seasons
http://www.thecascadiacup.com/​

​

 

Well, the scores of the individual games aren't exactly the ultimate purpose of the projection, but collectively they contribute the potential picture for Playoffs / SS Race, on the basis of the Most Recent Scores.

Methods explained:
http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads...s-projection-by-most-recent-meetings.2009760/

Basically, the most recent, corresponding Home / Road results vs every other opponent are expected to repeat themselves once or twice in 2015 (except NYCFC & OCSC where 1-1 applies).

For FCD, the most recent results vs other Western Teams can be derived from those in 2014 season.

However, results vs Eastern Teams would date back to 2013, base on theHome / Road match-up with them in alternating seasons, due to the Imbalanced Schedule currently in place.

Hence, through the combinations of:

• home/road scores for each conference from different seasons,
• schedule changes across seasons, and
• the late form of last season;

the Projected W-L-T Outcomes are not simply a carbon copy of the previous season, especially in the case of NER, for instance:

• 2014 Actuals: 17W-13L-4T, 55 points.
• 2015 Projection: 14W-9L-11T, 53 points.

For their Cup Nemesis LA Galaxy, the differences are even more drastic:

• 2014 Actuals: 17W-7L-10T, 61 points.
• 2015 Projection: 12W-10L-12T, 48 points.

 

As explained above, it's not just last year (vs Western Teams), but from the year before too (vs Eastern Teams).

Using the Most Recent Scores is just one of the Methodologies, among the the many used by others predictions (e.g. Bias for Favorite / Hated Teams, Gut Feel, Cost of Roster, Records of Roster, Perceived Capabilities of Roster, etc...).

Of course, every team are different across seasons, your predictions are good as mine or any others, since no one can predict the future anyway (especially on injuries to key players mid-season)...

Hence, it's never meant to be credible in anyway, but just for fun...

 

Enjoy the game:

http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/mls-game-photos.1976127/page-57