http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/newsid=2236360.html Next season's group stage will have a modified seeding format: the Pot 1 seeds will go to the title-holder and the champions of the top seven countries in the coefficient table. (For this sequence, it is Spain, England, Germany, Italy, Portugal, France, Russia). If the titlist is already a the winner of one of these seven, then the eight-ranked country gets the seed. (In this case, Netherlands.) This changes the current system of having the top eight clubs in the rankings getting the #1 seeds. I had advocated something like this a few years back when the Bundesliga champion hadn't been in European competition for a while, so they didn't have the five-year-point rankings to seed them.
Imagine if whoever of Barcelona and Real Madrid doesn't win La Liga gets drawn with Bayern Munich. The club coefficients currently have Real Madrid first, Barcelona second, and Bayern Munich third. Edit: "doesn't win La Liga" should say "doesn't win La Liga or the Champions League."
Yes, Evan, that thought did cross my mind: that it is possible to have two super-teams in one group. That's why I would have modified the proposal to say (Titleholder + 6 champions + 1 highest-ranked) or (Titleholder + 5 champions + 2 highest-ranked). Or even a group of (Barca / Madrid), Bayern, and Manchester City, if City would be in seed #17. (They barely got to #16 this season.) Even in these scenarios, it is possible that two top teams would get paired in the R-16. ..in the end, I guess any tweak that could help break up the top-8 dominance isn't that bad. As an aside, if the new seeds hold, you'll end up with a QF of teams from at least seven different countries. That happened a couple years ago, and people said that it was a refreshing change from having 3 or 4 teams from one federation (or 5 to 6 teams from two fed's); saying it was like the old days where only one team per federation made the tournament.
Nah, that's over-complicating matters. And it doesn't really solve the "problem" you're trying to address (e.g. Real Madrid weren't among the 2 highest-ranked teams the season that they won the CL so they would have ended up in pot 2 anyway). I put 'problem' in quotes because its not really a big problem either. Even if Barca/Madrid get paired with Bayern (only 14% chance), the odds of having a 3rd strong team in one group is now reduced due to this change. And that's really what matters since 2 teams advance .... This is a good adjustment by UEFA.
Well here's what could happen if the leagues were over now and the club coefficients didn't change. I'm going to assume that the Champions League winner also wins their league, which will happen if it is Juventus or Bayern Munich and could happen if it is Barcelona or Real Madrid. Manchester City is currently 17th. Here's a breakdown of the 16 clubs ahead of them by country with club coefficient rank in parenthesis: Spain: Barcelona/Real Madrid (one Pot 1, other Pot 2, Real Madrid is 1st and Barcelona is 2nd in the club coefficients), Atletico Madrid (5th), Valencia (13th, currently 4th in La Liga and if they stay there they would be seeded in the Playoff Round for the Champions League) England: Chelsea (Pot 1), Arsenal (9th), and Manchester United (10th) Germany: Bayern Munich (Pot 1), Bayer Leverkusen (16th), Schalke 04 and Borussia Dortmund will not qualify for the Champions League Italy: Juventus (Pot 1) Portugal: Benfica (6th) and Porto (8th)- One will win the league and be in Pot 1, the other in Pot 2 France: Paris Saint-Germain (Pot 1), they lead Ligue 1 and if they don't win it another French club will be in Pot 1 and Paris-Saint Germain will be in the same or a better pot than Manchester City Russia: Zenit St. Petersburg (Pot 1) Netherlands: PSV Eindhoven (Pot 1) A possible list of Pot 2 clubs is Barcelona or Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Valencia, Arsenal, Manchester United, Manchester City, Bayer Leverkusen, and Benfica or Porto. It looks like as long as Paris Saint-Germain wins Ligue 1, Manchester City will be in Pot 2.
Yup, could get Bayern, Madrid and Roma all in the same group (hopefully not for Roma). Also, close to 80% chance of Chelsea drawing a Spanish team.
We won't know the probability until we find out if Manchester United and Valencia reach the Group Stage.
I hope Juventus and Manchester United are drawn in the same group if Man Utd qualify. Its just that I'm a Juve fan and one of my friends loves ManU so we would have a rivalry.