2012 Race for the White House II: The Two Towers

Sam Wang on Nate Silver: "I think his model is too elaborate. It's like he's build SimCity instead of a real city." Say what? But neuroscientist PhDs probably don't get out much.

Silver's electoral-over-time map is the same shape, only a few points lower for Obama and with a bigger uncertainty band.

 

I'm thinking more about challenges to Silver that come from the other side. After all, Silver doesn't place a huge amount of confidence in the accuracy of state polls, which is why he still gives Romney a 19% chance of winning. Sam Wang uses the same data and has a headline model for Romney that's below 1%.

That's a big difference, and it'd be nice to see Silver doing more to justify his approach.

EDIT: You guys beat me to it. Me and my slow typing!

 

Ah, I see.

This seems pretty straightforward to me. If you assume state polls today are as accurate as in the recent past, and that errors are uncorrelated, you get Wang's figure. Never mind all the happy stories from the Romney camp. Mitt's about 60% for Florida, 40% for Virginia, and 10% for Ohio. That means a 2.4% chance that all three states break for him. And even after that, he needs a couple of more winners to get to 270. It's very, very long odds.

So it all comes down to unknown/uncertainty and the fudge factor that is used to say "this time might be different." Wang has no fudge factor, Silver has a large one, and Fox/Rove have created a fudge factor the size of Sandy.

 

Fox and Rove really know how to pack the fudge. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.)

 

Let's build a model to evaluate this assertion.

 

You're nearly 30 years late, my friend...

 

I saw this and was going to post it this morning. It was pretty much 8:31 minutes of sadness.

I might as well post this on Romney and the Jeep controversy. Was going to post an article but realized it was a breitbart article. Hey, I'm learning

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/opinion/mitt-romney-versus-the-automakers.html?_r=0

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/30/chrysler-romney-jeep-ad_n_2046038.html

 

Yeah, I generally agree that each side attracts its share of crazy, misinformed partisans.

But when you listen to the crazy people, and this is totally anecdotal, I think the crazy lefties are just crazy conspiracy theorists or just dumb people yelling about Obamaphones. The crazies on the right, on the other hand, are repeating campaign-issued talking points. Which is to say, the sane people and the crazy people are saying the same things. And partisanship aside, that's really weird.

 

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/1...cratic-turnout-machine-is-cleaning-our-clock/

 

The last week's Florida polls. -

10/25 Romney +2
10/27 Obama +2
10/28 Draw
10/28 Obama +1
10/28 Obama +1
10/29 Obama +1
10/30 Romney +3
10/30 Romney +0.9
10/31 Draw
11/1 Obama +1

Media conclusion - win for Romney, let's talk about Ohio and Wisconsin.

Virginia -

10/25 Draw
10/26 Obama +4
10/26 Draw
10/26 Romney +5
10/28 Obama +2
10/31 Obama +3
10/31 Obama +3
11/1 Obama +5

Media conclusion - likely Romney victory, let's talk about Ohio and Wisconsin

Nevada -

10/25 Obama +4
10/28 Obama +6
10/29 Obama +4
10/31 Obama +6

Media conclusion - too close to call.

New Hampshire -

10/25 Obama +3
10/25 Obama +3
10/28 Obama +5
10/28 Obama +2
10/29 Obama +2

Media conclusion - too close to call

 

FWIW, Romney can lose the Gold Coast and still win if he wins by enough in the I-4 corridor, which I expect him to. But to your point, I have faith in the Obama ground game to deliver the other battleground states.

 

Yep that's the key.

I remember black talk radio with its obsession about how the white American government planted AIDS. That was lefty crackpot fake science. But mainstream lefty didn't believe a word of it.

Whereas no climate change, that's righty crackpot fake science that is embraced -- indeed, pretty much demanded -- by the mainstream of the Republican Party.

Big difference.

 

Those polls weren't for the Gold Coast only (which you know).

If you put a gun to my head, and please don't, I'd pick Obama for Florida. The polls have been tightening to almost even, the early voting seems to be good for the Dems, Clinton is pounding the state hard today, and the Sandy response has to help. But of course it will be close.

My point being though, Florida is hardly in the bag for Romney. Everything else the Romney campaign does is meaningless if Mitt can't win Florida. And he has a real and nonsignificant chance of losing Florida.

Side note - Odd decision for Romney to campaign in Pennsylvania on Sunday. I don't know what to make of that. Everybody has Obama up solidly in PA. Even Rasmussen had him up 5 points in its poll last week. What's that about?

 

Clinton is pounding Florida?

 

He certainly will try.

 

Mother F#cker. That's funny.

 

Never fear. My parents and their 2 Dem votes have arrived back in Boynton Beach(not that Palm Beach County needed the votes) after summering in CT.

 

A pollster/strategist was on one show this morning claiming that it was sort of a late hopeful hail mary in the state in the hope of stealing it.

 

I am not sure if Obama can win Florida, at least from what I see where I live and work, but hey, I'm surrounded by Cuban-Americans...

Palm Beach is in a sense a Republican paradise, with plenty of funds and the ubber rich making the calls. So if they're loosing there, chances are that in other neighborhoods that are more Democrat leaning they're really taking a pounding.

Too close to call, but I'm very happy to see the ground game of the Obama campaign delivering such amazing results.

 

Hail Mary is right. Romney has been beaten in every PA poll since February. This is like Obama visiting Arizona.

Winning PA would be akin winning the game down 6, on your own 40, with 4 seconds left. See if Flutie is available.

 

Thanks for doing this. I voted week before last and - I think I've posted this before - was tickled to death to vote for Obama, gay marriage and legalized weed all that the same time.

 

If he's trying to win PA, why not campaign in Pittsburgh instead of Philadelphia, so he can get coverage in southeast (?) Ohio and work on turnout in central PA?

 

The WP is horrible and shameless. I stopped reading it a year or so ago because I couldn't stand the way it gave voice to idiots and liars.

 

There's a joke in there somewhere, I just don't know where.

You are not a friend of Amurica that is for certain.

 

Yeah, seriously. I don't care whom and what issues you vote for, just go vote and tell your friends and neighbors to vote.