2012 Race for the White House II: The Two Towers

Discussion in 'Elections' started by argentine soccer fan, Feb 17, 2012.

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  1. nicephoras

    nicephoras A very stable genius

    Fucklechester Rangers
    Jul 22, 2001
    Eastern Seaboard of Yo! Semite
    Yeah, the transportation system right now is FUBARed; 9/11, as terrible as it was, basically eliminated one transfer hub (albeit a key one) from the network. Not to mention that ConEd isn't even sure yet when parts of the city will have power/water again (I'm hoping I get mine back on Saturday).
     
  2. Demosthenes

    Demosthenes Member+

    May 12, 2003
    Berkeley, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And after 9/11, everything south of 14th street was already closed off to traffic. Even foot traffic! Only residents were allowed in, and no vehicles.
     
  3. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    Of course they are different. But that doesn't mean you can't draw valid analogies and distinctions between events that aren't directly on point. There were press following Obama to NJ as well and Christie invited the president and made it happen. Bloomberg didn't want to, which is fine. But then if the people of NY want are angry because of the different level of treatment to NJ, then they should look to the mayor. I get that it's a pain in some ways to have the president come for a visit to a disaster areas, but there are many benefits as well. Bush was in New Orleans 4 or 5 days after Katrina. It was too late at that point as the inaction of all involved had truly eroded the situation, but the point is that a presidential visit is more the norm than the exception in these disaster.
     
  4. nicephoras

    nicephoras A very stable genius

    Fucklechester Rangers
    Jul 22, 2001
    Eastern Seaboard of Yo! Semite
    True, and as I recall it didn't last that long - we have literally no clue when the tunnels to Jersey/Brooklyn might be operational again. Although they can take their time with Jersey.
     
  5. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've been wondering.. I know he uses Rasmussen's party affiliation poll to "unskew" the national polls, but does he use the same poll for the state ones too? I don't think Rasmussen's party affiliation has state by state break downs like Gallup's.. If they don't, it seems rather stupid to use national numbers to skew numbers at a state level when the affiliations between the various states can be quite different.
     
  6. phats_away

    phats_away Member

    Jul 28, 2001
    Atlanta, Ga
    Hararea repped this.
  7. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Their methodology:
    The QStarNews poll works with the premise that the partisan makeup of the electorate 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats and 30.0 percent independent voters. Additionally, our model is based on the electorate including approximately 41.0 percent conservatives, 20.0 percent moderates and 39.0 percent liberals.

    Republicans are 89 percent conservative, 9 percent moderate and 2 percent liberal. Among Democrats, 3 percent are conservative, 23 percent are moderate and 74 percent are liberal. Independents include 33 percent conservatives, 49 percent moderates and 18 percent liberals.

    Our polls are doubly-weighted, to doubly insure the results are most accurate and not skewed, by both party identification and self-identified ideology. For instance, no matter how many Republicans answer our survey, they are weighted at 34.8 percent. If conservatives are over-represented among Republicans in the raw sample, they are still weighted at 89 percent of Republicans regardless. This system of double weighting should ensure our survey produces very accurate results, not skewed either way for the Democrats or for the Republicans.

    So whereas Nate Silver and other poll aggregators average the polls and let them cancel each other out, what Unskewed/QStar does is "unskew" individual polls, basically contaminating the raw data, by making the numbers fit their turnout model. The trick is how to weigh each poll - I believe Silver weights them by the "freshness" of the numbers and the organization's historical accuracy.

    Now, party affiliation tends to go hand in hand with how confident people feel about announcing their party ID and partisan lean. So if Obama's numbers keep going up, Unskewed will go the other way, as they are going to overcorrect for partisan lean, and their maps will become more red.


    EDIT I misread your post - yeah, I can't tell if they're using the same party affiliation for every state, because that would really ******** up the numbers in the blue states. I'm assuming they have state-by-state models.
     
  8. Demosthenes

    Demosthenes Member+

    May 12, 2003
    Berkeley, CA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I understood your point. I just think it's a little too facile to say George Bush visiting ground zero is a precedent for any presidential visit to a disaster in Manhattan. Each situation is different.
     
  9. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/conservatives-embrace-alternate-polling-reality

    Since July, Chambers has re-weighted national polling data from organizations like Gallup, ARG, and the three networks, to fit the Rasmussen Reports partisan trends. Chambers has published 30 "unskewed" polls on his website and on examiner.com, a national network that pays independent bloggers on a wide range of subject by traffic. In the last month, Chambers's tooled polls have Romney up by seven or more points.

    Rasmussen's most recent partisan breakdown shows that 37.6 percent of Americans consider themselves Republicans, 33.3 percent Democrats, and 29.2 percent Independents.

    Even the founder of Rasmussen Reports, whose surveys often show higher Republican numbers, cast doubt on Chambers' methods: Scott Rasmussen told BuzzFeed in an e-mail that "you cannot compare partisan weighting from one polling firm to another."

    "Different firms ask about partisan affiliation in different ways," explained Rasmussen. "Some ask how you are registered. Some ask what you consider yourselves. Some push for leaners, others do not. Some ask it at the beginning of a survey which provides a more stable response while others ask it at the end."
     
  10. Yoshou

    Yoshou Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah.. I hope they have state by state models, but considering how much of a hack job this is, I wager they are using the national breakdown.
     
  11. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    I never cease to be astonished at how far journalism has fallen. I stumbled across the blog of one Jennifer Rubin at the Washington Post, who wrote a Rove/Morris article that cherry picks early voting data to make the case that Romney is springing a massive surprise, and that the state polls are massively wrong.

    I say cherry picks because she does stuff like this county in North Carolina or these 3 days in this state, then ignores things like Obama leading in the early voting in Iowa, Ohio, and several other states.

    And she never even touches on why all the state polls might be hugely wrong this time around, when in 2000, 2004, and 2008 they were almost almost directly on target.

    As I wrote, it is a Rove/Morris spin article that should generate advertising revenue for the Post. It sure as shooting shouldn't be writing by an alleged Post employee.
     
  12. HouseHead78

    HouseHead78 Member+

    Oct 17, 2006
    Austin, TX
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Rubin is a right-wing henchperson masquerading as a columnist. She doesn't even try to contradict the party line every once in a while to appear like an independent thinker. She transcribes talking points directly from the RNC into a newspaper column. They should cut out the middleperson and just give free ad space to the RNC.
     
    GiuseppeSignori and chaski repped this.
  13. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
  14. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Shame on the Post for hiring her. Shame on the Journal for hiring Rove. Shame on CNN for hiring Carville ... although at least his articles seem to be more in mocking Republicans than in lying about poll results.

    Why on earth should party hacks and spin doctors be treated as journalists? They are not, and they do no belong on a newspaper site.
     
  15. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    You really shouldn't associate these words with each other.
     
  16. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Says Washington Post. That makes it journalism. Maybe execrable journalism but journalism.
     
  17. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Blogs are journalism.

    Well, to be more accurate, blogs are merely a platform upon which content is delivered. And in the case of WaPo blogs, the content is journalism.
     
  18. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    So there is a viable career path out there for Vfish. Good to know.
     
    GiuseppeSignori and DynamoEAR repped this.
  19. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    Here is a definition I found online for journalism.

    1.
    the occupation of reporting, writing, editing, photographing,or broadcasting news or of conducting any news organization as a business.




    Jennifer Rubin may have started her career off as a journalist but now she is really no more a journalist than Richard Cohen or George Will. Just because you work for a media organization and you write doesn't make you a journalist.
     
  20. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Both of whom are journalists.
     
  21. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
     
  22. That Phat Hat

    That Phat Hat Member+

    Nov 14, 2002
    Just Barely Outside the Beltway
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Japan
    Dude, don't ******** up the grammar with your FYP.

    Second, that you disagree with their point or view or that you've become disenchanted with their output doesn't change their profession.
     
  23. song219

    song219 BigSoccer Supporter

    Apr 5, 2004
    La Norte
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Vanuatu
    I mostly agree with Richard Cohen but I still don't believe him to be a journalist anymore.
     

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