2011 Playoff format and seeding thread

They are cramping the playoffs into a tight frame. Conference semifinal second leg is 3 days before the conference final. Gives next to no time for teams to sell the game. Especially if you're like the 3rd seed and while you top the 2 seed the first gets upset by the 4, meaning you're hosting.

 

But they do recognize the FIFA date.......

 

8 points from our last 9 games should do the trick.

 

The main problem that I have with the playoff schedule is that the higher seed hosts the midweek conference semifinal leg, not the weekend match. This essentially penalizes the better team, or at least their fans who have kids in school (like me) and thus are reluctant to take them out to the stadium on a Wednesday or Thursday night. It almost makes me want SKC to finish 3rd in the Eastern Conference, which would guarantee a home game on Saturday 10/29 or Sunday 10/30.

 

A man after my own heart.

 

Aren't you British? That was kind of your thing.

 

Why do I find it funny that he thought you were British though????

 

Well damn. The imperialism joke doesn't really work if you aren't British.

 

All these games between the contenders, plus DC's SIX freaking games in hand make it tough to do much in the way of meaningful analysis. I've posted a scenario that effectively qualifies us for the playoffs this weekend in another thread, but there's no way to project the East winner yet.

FCD can also lock in a spot with a win or (I think) a draw this weekend, but beyond that I doubt we see anything but the final nails in the coffin for New England, Toronto, and potentially San Jose and Chivas.

 

Hopefully DC's schedule will result in some fatigue for those games and even the playoffs should they make it.

 

Percent chance of finishing in the top three in the Eastern Conference based on current standings (before PHL-DCU) and remaining matches:

82.9% - Sporting Kansas City
62.6% - Philadelphia Union
52.1% - DC United
46.9% - Houston Dynamo
27.0% - New York Red Bulls
24.0% - Columbus Crew
04.5% - Chicago Fire

Source: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

 

I'm not 100% sure how his methodology works, but the guy at sportsclubstats.com says MLS has a couple of huge games this weekend:

Chicago at Houston: Anything but a win here crushes the Fire, and a Houston win nearly locks up a spot for them.

RBNY at TFC: A loss would be very, very bad for Red Bull.

DC at Columbus: This is pivotal for the Crew. Even a draw drops their playoff chances below 50%

Portland at Vancouver: Anything but the full three points knocks Portland's playoff chances below 10%.

Interestingly, losing at San Jose tonight doesn't hurt our playoff chances very much. According to the model, anyway.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

 

If CBus miss the playoffs, will we be talking about NY or Columbus as one of the worst collapses in league history? NY's was a long, slow fall from grace whereas Columbus stand to be very late and a near vertical drop, as if their bridge to the playoffs is out, as it were. We'll see what happens.

As well it shouldn't - we should need no more than a couple of points to punch our playoff ticket, and depending on results, we may have already done so. At this point I'm concerned about seeding. If I were the cynical sort, I would be hoping that Philly finished first and let them deal with Dallas - if I were the cynical sort.

 

New York for pure talent that they weren't able to make it if they don't.