2010 Seeds, a Look Ahead

The 2002 formula was:
(WC90 + 2*WC94 + 3*WC98)/6 + (Rank99+Rank00+Rank01)/3
If the same is used for 2010 the formula will be:
[/i](WC98 + 2*WC02 + 3*WC06)/6 + (Rank07+Rank08+Rank09)/3[/i]
As you can see only 1/4 of the total points have been determined so far (for teams that didn't qualify 1/2 has been determined already).
If we give 8 points for WC06 for all the teams that Qualified (the worst they can do) which is 4 points in the final score the top 16 are:

19.83 Brazil
18.67 Germany
17.00 England
15.00 Korea Republic
14.83 Spain
14.67 Italy
14.67 Mexico
---------------------
13.67 USA
13.33 Japan
12.00 Croatia
12.00 France
11.83 Denmark*
11.50 Argentina
10.67 Sweden
10.00 Turkey*
8.83 Netherlands

* - Can not improve.

Because of the weighting the impact of WC06 is bigger:
+12 for winning
+8.5 to +11.5 for losing between quarterfinals and final of WC06
+4.5 to +8.0 for losing in 2nd round of WC06
+0.5 for finishing 3rd in WC06 group

This means that reaching the Quarter Finals could move the Netherlands from 16th to 4th, or that a 3rd place finish (worth 15 in the formula) could move anyone all the way to 4th.

Some corrections:
- the ranking portion is based on the 32 teams that made the WC not the top 32 in the FIFA ranking.
- each ranking/year is worth 1/3 of a point in the final result, gaining/losing a spot for all three years is worth a point.

If we use Oct05 ranking as a projection (not very reliable) of the ranking in Dec07, Dec08 and Nov09 (using the top 32 teams in the FIFA ranking) we get:
51.83 Brazil
41.67 Mexico
40.50 Argentina
40.50 England
40.00 France
39.83 Netherlands
39.83 Spain
---------------------
39.67 USA
36.67 Germany
35.67 Italy
34.00 Czech Republic
32.00 Turkey*
30.83 Denmark*
30.67 Sweden
30.50 Portugal
30.33 Japan
26.00 Croatia
20.00 Costa Rica
19.00 Korea Republic
18.67 Uruguay*

* - not in WC06

The top 11 are clearly in the chase (6 points can be made up in no time). Sweden, Portugal and Japan need to gain points in the WC in order to have a realistic chance.
Croatia and below, even reaching the Semi-Finals next years might not be enough.

Once the WC is over we will probably be down 10 teams or so going after the 7 spots (assuming the formula stays the same).

 

Excellent point! Rep on the way

I added some more scenarios, the columns are:

• Oct05: Number of point if the team keep their Oct05 ranking for the three years in question. Teams that are in the WC get credit for a 4th place group finish (the worst they can do).
• WC Win: number of points if the team wins the WC and ranking stays the same as Oct05 during the three years in question.
• #1*3: Number of points if the team finishes 4th in the group (for those in the WC) and ends up #1 in the FIFA ranking for the three years in question.
• Max: Number of points if the team wins the WC and is #1 in the FIFA ranking for the 3 years in question. This is the maximum number of points a team can have.
• Diff: Max - WC win. This is the upside a team in the FIFA ranking (= current ranking - 1)

Code:

   Team        Oct05   WC Win  #1*3    Max    Diff
 1 Brazil      51.83   63.83   51.83   63.83   0.00
 2 Mexico      41.67   53.67   46.67   58.67   5.00
 3 Argentina   40.50   52.50   43.50   55.50   3.00
 4 England     40.50   52.50   49.00   61.00   8.50
 5 France      40.00   52.00   44.00   56.00   4.00
 6 Netherlands 39.83   51.83   40.83   52.83   1.00
 7 Spain       39.83   51.83   46.83   58.83   6.00
 --------------------------------------------------
 8 USA         39.67   51.67   45.67   57.67   6.00
 9 Germany     36.67   48.67   50.67   62.67  14.00
10 Italy       35.67   47.67   46.67   58.67  11.00
11 Czech Rep   34.00   46.00   36.00   48.00   2.00
12 Turkey*     32.00   32.00   42.00   42.00  10.00
13 Denmark*    30.83   30.83   43.83   43.83  13.00
14 Sweden      30.67   42.67   42.67   54.67  12.00
15 Portugal    30.50   42.50   39.00   51.00   8.50
16 Japan       30.33   42.33   45.33   57.33  15.00
17 Croatia     26.00   38.00   44.00   56.00  18.00
18 Costa Rica  20.00   32.00   39.00   51.00  19.00
19 Korea Rep   19.00   31.00   47.00   59.00  28.00

* - Not in WC06
Teams not listed, that are in the WC can get to at least 48 points by winning the WC and being #1 for the three years in question.

Based on the 2002 & 2006, a team will need to be in the low to mid 40s in order to be in the top 7. This means that teams not in the WC (e.g. Turkey, Denmark) have little to no chance of being seeded in WC10.

 

Aren't the holders automatically seeded, if they qualify?

 

My guess would be yes, I don't think that we ever had a case in which the holder wasn't in the top 5.

 

I don't understand this one. If a team finished 4th in their group, there is no chance they are going to be ranked #1 in the FIFA rankings... so what is the point of it?

Unless maybe I misunderstood what this colum is for... please explain! Thanks.

 

Brazil has a big lead in the FIFA rankings. Is it big enough so that if they somehow finished last in their World Cup 2006 group they could still be ranked first or fall out of first but be ranked first again at some point during the WCQs for 2010? I agree that it's very unlikely or impossible.

 

I think that Evan is right in his post. The main reason I added the "#1 *3" column is to support numerista statement that "Because the Croats are currently 19th, they have an upside that the Czech Republic (3rd) does not".

 

lol this is amusing because it is so far ahead....things could change in the other continential championships.


great stats though

 

Anyone got numbers using the new formula?

 

Code:

   Team        Nov05  Cur Rank
 1 Brazil      48.00    1
 2 Spain       41.67    6
 3 Mexico      38.67    7
 4 USA         38.67    8
 5 England     38.33    9
 6 Argentina   37.33    4
 7 Turkey*     37.33   11
--------------------------
 8 Czech Rep   36.33    2
 9 France      36.00    5
10 Netherlands 35.33    3
11 Germany     32.67   16
12 Italy       32.33   12
13 Japan       31.33   15
14 Portugal    31.33   10
15 Sweden      31.00   14
16 Denmark*    27.67   13
17 Croatia     21.33   20
18 Costa Rica  20.33   21
19 Iran        19.33   19
20 Korea Rep   19.00   29

* - Not in WC06

Winning the WC gets you 16 points.
Rank movement is worth a point for each position change over the three years.

 

No, I meant the new method based on how FIFA tweaked it this time, using only the past two World Cups. So if they keep it, that means that 1998 won't be used next time.

 

That's what I tried to do, but I had an error with Turkey .

It should be:

Code:

   Team        Nov05  Cur Rank
 1 Brazil      48.00    1
 2 Spain       41.67    6
 3 Mexico      38.67    7
 4 USA         38.67    8
 5 England     38.33    9
 6 Argentina   37.33    4
 7 Czech Rep   36.33    2
----------------------------
 8 France      36.00    5
 9 Netherlands 35.33    3
10 Germany     32.67   16
11 Italy       32.33   12
12 Turkey*      32.00   11
13 Japan       31.33   15
14 Portugal    31.33   10
15 Sweden      31.00   14
16 Denmark*     27.67   13
17 Croatia     21.33   20
18 Costa Rica  20.33   21
19 Iran        19.33   19
20 Korea Rep   19.00   29

* - Not in WC06

Examples:
Brazil:
Ranking: 32 = (32+32+32)/3 (using Nov05 ranking for Dec 07, Dec 08, Nov 09)
WC standing: 16 = (32*1+8*2)/3 (they get 8 points for 06 WC since they qualified)
Total:48

USA:
Ranking: 25
WC standing: 13.67 = (25*1+8*2)/3
Total: 38.67

Turkey:
Ranking: 22
WC standing: 10 = (30*1+0*2)/3 (no points for 06 WC)
Total: 32

I think that this is what you asked for.

 

Using the December FIFA Rankings

Country - Rank - Performance - Total - Current Rank

Code:

 1 Brazil         32 16.00 48.00 1
 2 Spain          27 14.67 41.67 5.1
 3 Mexico         28 12.67 40.67 5
 4 USA            25 13.67 38.67 8
 5 England        24 14.33 38.33 9
 6 Argentina      29  8.33 37.33 4
 7 Czech Republic 31  5.33 36.33 2
------------------------------------
 8 Netherlands    30  5.33 35.33 3
 9 France         26  8.00 34.00 5.2
10 Germany        17 15.67 32.67 16
11 Italy          21 11.33 32.33 12
12 Turkey         22 10.00 32.00 11
13 Japan          18 13.33 31.33 15
14 Portugal       23  8.33 31.33 10
15 Sweden         19 12.00 31.00 14
16 Denmark        20  7.67 27.67 13
17 Croatia        13  8.33 21.33 20
18 Korea Republic  6 15.00 21.00 29
19 Costa Rica     12  8.33 20.33 21
20 Iran           14  5.33 19.33 19

* Mexico, Spain and France are all in the 5th place, but Mexico is first so it gets 28 points, Spain 2nd - 27, France 3rd - 26.

 

January update

Code:

 1 Brazil         32 16.00 48.00 1
 2 Spain          28 14.67 42.67 5
 3 Mexico         26 12.67 38.67 7
 4 USA            25 13.67 38.67 7.1
 5 England        24 14.33 38.33 9
 6 Argentina      29  8.33 37.33 4
 7 Czech Republic 31  5.33 36.33 2
-----------------------------------
 8 Netherlands    30  5.33 35.33 3
 9 France         27  8.00 35.00 5.1
10 Italy          21 11.33 32.33 12
11 Turkey         22 10.00 32.00 11
12 Germany        16 15.67 31.67 17
13 Japan          18 13.33 31.33 15
14 Portugal       23  8.33 31.33 10
15 Sweden         19 12.00 31.00 14
16 Denmark        20  7.67 27.67 13
17 Croatia        13  8.33 21.33 20
18 Korea Republic  6 15.00 21.00 29
19 Costa Rica     12  8.33 20.33 21
20 Iran           14  5.33 19.33 19

 

Am I right that if the US were to make the Q-finals in Germany (not likely, but humor me), that only four teams could score significantly more points than us and we'd be an almost certain seed for 2010?

 

Basically, yes.

 

February update:

Code:

 1 Brazil         32 16.00 48.00 1
 2 Spain          27 14.67 41.67 6
 3 Mexico         26 12.67 38.67 6.1
 4 USA            25 13.67 38.67 6.2
 5 England        24 14.33 38.33 9
 6 Argentina      29  8.33 37.33 4
 7 Czech Republic 31  5.33 36.33 2
------------------------------------
 8 France         28  8.00 36.00 5
 9 Netherlands    30  5.33 35.33 3
10 Turkey         22 10.00 32.00 11
11 Italy          20 11.33 31.33 12.1
12 Portugal       23  8.33 31.33 10
13 Sweden         18 12.00 30.00 15
14 Germany        13 15.67 28.67 19.1
15 Japan          15 13.33 28.33 18
16 Denmark        19  7.67 26.67 14
17 Nigeria        21  2.67 23.67 12
18 Cameroon       17  3.00 20.00 16
19 Korea Republic  5 15.00 20.00 31
20 Tunisia        10  8.00 18.00 23

 

March update:

Code:

 1 Brazil          32 16.00 48.00  1
 2 USA             28 13.67 41.67  5
 3 Spain           27 14.67 41.67  6
 4 Mexico          26 12.67 38.67  7
 5 England         24 14.33 38.33  9
 6 Argentina       29  8.33 37.33  4
 7 Czech Republic  31  5.33 36.33  2
--------------------------------------
 8 Netherlands     30  5.33 35.33  3
 9 France          25  8.00 33.00  8
10 Turkey          22 10.00 32.00 11
11 Portugal        23  8.33 31.33 10
12 Italy           20 11.33 31.33 12.1
13 Sweden          17 12.00 29.00 16
14 Japan           15 13.33 28.33 18
15 Denmark         19  7.67 26.67 14
16 Germany         11 15.67 26.67 22
17 Nigeria         21  2.67 23.67 12
18 Croatia         13  8.33 21.33 19.1
19 Cameroon        18  3.00 21.00 15
20 Korea Republic   5 15.00 20.00 31

 

Whoa!

Under this formula (and assuming status quo with above rankings) You could see 2 concacaf teams & 1 African team seeded in 2010; along with Argentina & Brazil, that only leaves 3 Uefa teams. I just don't see the powers to be letting this happen. We (USA) have to make sure that we are ahead of Mexico in every possible scenario to make sure we are the concacaf representative.

Go USA!

 

A friendly suggestion: add column headings to your table and perhaps even an explanation of what they mean. I forget each month, and always have to search through the beginning of the thread to figure out the significance of everything. Keep up the good work.

 

No problem.

 

April 2006 update

I make the following assumptions:

1. The place-allocations are the ones used for WC 2006.

AFC 4,5
CAF 5
CONCACAF 3,5
CONMEBOL 4,5
OFC 0,5
UEFA 14

2. Highest ranked teams qualify from each confederation.

3. Highest ranked teams win the play-offs.

4. Each team qualified for WC 2006 gets 8 points for performance.

AFC:

Japan (17), Iran (22), Korea Republic (30), Saudi Arabia (34)

Play-off: Australia (44)

CAF:

Nigeria (12), Cameroon (15), Egypt (18), Tunisia (21), South Africa (51) - host

CONCACAF:

USA (4), Mexico (6), Costa Rica (26)

Play-off: Honduras (41)

CONMEBOL:

Brazil (1), Argentina (8), Uruguay (22), Colombia (27)

Play-off: Paraguay (33)

OFC:

Play-off: New Zealand (120)

UEFA:

Czech Republic (2), Netherlands (3), Spain (5), France (7), Portugal (8), England (10), Denmark (11), Turkey (13), Italy (14), Sweden (16), Germany (19), Greece (19), Croatia (24), Romania (25)

Play-offs:

Australia (44) - Honduras (41)
Paraguay (33) - New Zealand (120)


Columns:

1 - Rank in the seeding
2 - Country
3 - FIFA Ranking points
4 - WC Performance points
5 - Total
6 - Current FIFA ranking

Code:

------------------------------------- 
|1|    2        | 3 |  4  | 5   | 6 |    
------------------------------------- 
 1 Brazil         32 16.00 48.00  1
 2 USA            29 13.67 42.67  4
 3 Spain          28 14.67 42.67  5
 4 Mexico         27 12.67 39.67  6
 5 England        23 14.33 37.33 10
 6 Czech Republic 31  5.33 36.33  2
 7 Netherlands    30  5.33 35.33  3
------------------------------------- 
 8 France         26  8.00 34.00  7
 9 Portugal       25  8.33 33.33  8
10 Argentina      24  8.33 32.33  8.1
11 Italy          19 11.33 30.33 14
12 Turkey         20 10.00 30.00 13
13 Denmark        22  7.67 29.67 11
14 Japan          16 13.33 29.33 17
15 Sweden         17 12.00 29.00 16
16 Germany        13 15.67 28.67 19.1
17 Nigeria        21  2.67 23.67 12
18 Cameroon       18  3.00 21.00 15
19 Tunisia        12  8.00 20.00 21
20 Korea Republic  5 15.00 20.00 30

* Portugal and Argentina are both in 8th place, but FIFA.com shows Portugal above Argentina. The same for the rest.

 

Again, there's no chance that FIFA would give Mexico and the USA seeds, with France, Argentina, and Italy left behind. I wonder if FIFA will adjust its' seeding formula for 2010.