2010 Seeding Formula: January 2008 update

Discussion in 'World Cup 2010: General' started by Edgar, Jan 23, 2008.

  1. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Translation: "We can't be arsed to figure out the answer to your question. Piss off."

    That's FIFA for ya...
     
  2. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    Actually, FIFA is the most professional sport organization with regards to answering questions :)

    UEFA never answered any of my e-mails. Same goes for the rest of the continental confederations. Many of the national associations never bothered to reply my e-mails.

    FIFA have always been very helpful, although a bit late sometimes at answering.
     
  3. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Whodathunkit? I'd expect their bottom ranks to be just as transparent as upper managament...
     
  4. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, of course they can't, because the World Cup Seeding won't be decided until right before the draw, when they'll adjust things slightly to suit their fancy. So silly little concerns like yours will be 'adjusted' away, should they come up.
     
  5. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Group F: Italy, Czech Republic, USA, Paraguay

    The Group of We Are So Dead.

    I am looking forward to things getting a little more settled.
     
  6. Gold is the Colour

    Dec 17, 2005
    Perth Australia
    Club:
    Perth Glory
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Group A: South Africa, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Chile
    First time I've seen a group that Sth Africa could get out of - KSA could even qualify, although I'd go with Russia and Chile as favourites

    Group B: Argentina, Israel, Korea Republic, Egypt
    Argentina a shoe in with Sth Korea edging 2nd just ahead of Egypt and Israel

    Group C: France, Greece, Australia, Ghana
    Australia and Ghana, France 3rd over Greece

    Group D: Spain, Portugal, Mexico, Uruguay
    Bitchfight

    Group E: Brazil, Croatia, Iran, Cote d'Ivoire
    Brazil and Cote d'Ivoire - although Croatia could upset. Unlucky Iran

    Group F: Italy, Czech Republic, USA, Paraguay
    Italy and Paraguay, not by much over USA 3rd than Czech IMO

    Group G: England, Netherlands, Japan, Cameroon
    England and Netherlands, Japan and Cameroon respectable.

    Group H: Germany, Turkey, Honduras, Nigeria
    Germany and Nigeria. Turkey close. Honduras to the wolves
     
  7. scmcbride21

    scmcbride21 New Member

    May 9, 2006
    United States
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You should've just put Ghana in Group F instead of Paraguay.
     
  8. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He didn't choose to put Paraguay in Group F. It's a random/mock draw.
     
  9. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    The Czechs have been poor for a while now. I would say there are 3 tougher groups in that mock draw. (C,D, G)
     
  10. scmcbride21

    scmcbride21 New Member

    May 9, 2006
    United States
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah I know that. I was being fecicious.
     
  11. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Damn. Where's that facetious smiley when you need it?! :D
     
  12. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That may be true, but we have somehow sucked massively against former Eastern Bloc nations.
     
  13. cmedina1983

    cmedina1983 New Member

    Nov 14, 2008
    California
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    I think that would be a good group for us Australians. The French are entirely in the shit after the glory run they had at the end of the '90s, Greece has fallen back a bit after their Euro win not long ago; Ghana would be our strongest foe and even then I'd predict a tie, or short loss to them. I really think we could manage 6 or 7 points and 2nd place if we took things too easy, or top the group if we put all the chips on the table.
     
  14. Master O

    Master O Member+

    Jul 7, 2006
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  15. scmcbride21

    scmcbride21 New Member

    May 9, 2006
    United States
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd worry more about running into Nemanja Vidic.
     
  16. Sachsen

    Sachsen Member+

    Aug 8, 2003
    Broken Arrow, Okla.
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Hmm. Yes, we got ran over by the Czechs in 06. But we have owned Poland recently, and we only lost to Romania 1-0 in 94. Somehow I don't think any past results would matter, though.
     
  17. Sachsen

    Sachsen Member+

    Aug 8, 2003
    Broken Arrow, Okla.
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  18. GoodDead

    GoodDead Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 8, 2004
    Toronto Canada
    Club:
    Sporting Braga
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    I can't stand how long it takes in between international games.
     
  19. Edgar

    Edgar Member

  20. georgemladenov

    Apr 17, 2006
    Karma will hit those Balkan body snatchers.

    Australia got our revenge against 3 Croatian players who were developed in a tax-payer funded program by knocking them out of the WC in Germany.
     
  21. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    Pot 3 seems like it is the determinant for which is the group of death.

    I'm rooting for a World Cup group of Germany, Israel, Iran and Egypt.
     
  22. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Finally, a tough group for South Africa. There's no way they'd make it out of that one.
     
  23. Smoga

    Smoga Member

    Jan 28, 2002
    Brooklyn, NYC
    Most pointless thread on BS

    I've said this before, and will say it again, despite all the effort that went into making these calculations: this thread is pointless. It may be fun, and give people something to do while we are waiting for the next major tournament, but it it has no basis in reality. I understand that statistics can be helpful in many areas of life (like telling us who will be the next leader of country X, for example), but to go as far as to predict World Cup groups based on FIFA ranking or some other rankings, which will not have any bearing whatsoever on determining who makes it into the tournament, is silly. Sorry for being a spoilsport! Now, a word of advice to the statisticians: go back to the drawing board, and figure out something better, like for instance the probability of each country getting into South Africa based on past results and current position in an elimination group. That would make reading this thread something more than a waste of time.
     
  24. Gold is the Colour

    Dec 17, 2005
    Perth Australia
    Club:
    Perth Glory
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Re: Most pointless thread on BS

    Since this is the reason most of us are subscribing the rest of your post is rather pointless.

    Keep up the good work Edgar:cool:
     
  25. JLSA

    JLSA Member

    Nov 11, 2003
    Re: Most pointless thread on BS

    The whole point of Edgar's work is to show which 7 countries might be seeded - which is an EXTREMELY IMPORTANT factor, both for them and for the draw in general, particularly at the margin. So, knowing whether there is a big/small/widening/narrowing gap in the seeding based on current positions and rankings is quite important.

    The "mock draws" are just an example of what might follow from the seeding. While they are not any use in determining what will happen, they can give a flavour for the type of groups we might get (such as what sort of group of death is possible, or the variety of easy/hard draws the seeds, or South Africa, may get).

    In the end, GiTC is right, the post was pretty pointless - although we now know how seriously to take that poster's analysis in future. So, not entirely wasted then.

    J

    Australia v Kuwait. Asian Cup Qualifier. Canberra Stadium, Canberra. 5 March 2008 - 8pm.
     

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