2010 Seeding Formula: January 2008 update

Discussion in 'World Cup 2010: General' started by Edgar, Jan 23, 2008.

  1. shocker

    shocker New Member

    Oct 23, 2007
    Thanks Edgar !!
     
  2. Gold is the Colour

    Dec 17, 2005
    Perth Australia
    Club:
    Perth Glory
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    G.O.D??

    C over H IMO

    Again group A is easy and Brazil are let off fairly lightly.
     
  3. Lusankya

    Lusankya Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 14, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    A, B and E are easy groups. The rest is pretty competitive because of the strong second tier UEFA and the strong CAF/COMNEBOl teams.
    But every European team wants to get in South Africas group. :rolleyes:
     
  4. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I assume you mean D and not E?
     
  5. TimB4Last

    TimB4Last Member+

    May 5, 2006
    Dystopia
    Just using the July FIFA rankings as a snapshot, we have ...

    Group D: Brazil (4), Greece (18), Japan (34), Egypt (24)
    Group E: Spain (1), Turkey (14), USA (30), Nigeria (27)

    which makes it seem fairly close, but from from my (non-neutral) perspective, I would agree that Group E definitely appears stronger than Group D.
     
  6. Jwaksman

    Jwaksman New Member

    Jul 7, 2007
    USA
    Club:
    Maccabi Haifa FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Yeah, group D is an easy one for Brazil. Group E has the European Champion, a Euro semifinalist, and then arguably one of the top two teams in each of the final pots.
     
  7. Lusankya

    Lusankya Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 14, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I meant D. Greece just isn't a good team. But they may qualify, because their group is a joke. But I think Israel and Switzerland are stronger.
     
  8. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Quote:
    Group A: South Africa, England, Korea Republic, Chile
    Group B: Argentina, Romania, Honduras, Ghana
    Group C: Germany, Netherlands, Australia, Cote d'Ivoire
    Group D: Brazil, Greece, Japan, Egypt
    Group E: Spain, Turkey, USA, Nigeria
    Group F: Italy, Croatia, Saudi Arabia, Cameroon
    Group G: France, Russia, Iran, Paraguay
    Group H: Portugal, Czech Republic, Mexico, Colombia


    GOD is easily C, H is not even close

    C you have 2 of the top 5 european teams and arguably the best sides in Asia and Africa.

    A: England 7, Chile 5, SA 2, Korea 1
    B: Argentina 9, Ghana 6, Romania 3, Honduras 0
    C: Holland 5, Germany 5, CIV 4, Australia 1
    D: Brazil 7, Egypt 4, Japan 3, Greece 1
    E: Spain 9, Nigeria 4, USA 2, Turkey 1
    F: Italy 7, Croatia 5, Cameroon 4, KSA 0
    G: France 5, Russia 5, Paraguay 3, Iran 1
    H: Portugal 5, Mexico 5, Colombia 3, Czech 1
     
  9. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Funny that, with this mock draw, England losing its seeding benefits them massively.

    I'm sure they'd take that trade ANY day.

    Thanks, Egdar, for the US draw :rolleyes:

    These draws just convince me more and more that we were mostly lucky in 2002 to get the draw we got, and it's going to be a long time before we ever get into the knockout rounds again.

    Unless we host again.
     
  10. seadondo

    seadondo Member

    Apr 8, 2008
    Redondo Beach
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Possible Draw:

    Group A: South Africa, Greece, USA, Chile
    Group B: Argentina, England, Mexico, Cote d'Ivoire
    Group C: Germany, Netherlands, Australia, Cameroon
    Group D: Brazil, Czech Republic, Saudi Arabia, Egypt
    Group E: Spain, Romania, Korea Republic, Ghana
    Group F: Italy, Russia, Honduras, Paraguay
    Group G: France, Croatia, Iran, Columbia
    Group H: Portugal, Turkey, Japan, Nigeria

    This would be a good draw for USA :p
     
  11. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The odds of us getting a group of that level are what? 2%
     
  12. Jwaksman

    Jwaksman New Member

    Jul 7, 2007
    USA
    Club:
    Maccabi Haifa FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States


    You can do the math yourself. The odds of any set of groups is (1/8)^3 = 0.2%


    Any of these random "draws" are just exercises for fun, they mean nothing. What are important are the pools. Picking one out of 512 equally possible draws is irrelevant.




    Note: Before someone tries to be a stickler, I'm not accounting for different second round/quarterfinal draws. So, I'm saying that there's only one way to draw Greece, South Africa, Chile & the US, and ignoring the fact that technically that group could be group A, B, C... If we only look at first round match-ups, then any team can be paired with any one of eight teams from the other three pools. That's all.
     
  13. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I meant a group that easy. It wouldn't necessarily have to contain Greece or Chile specifically, just a pool B and D team of that level. There are 2 or 3 "lesser" teams in each of those pools at the moment.

    South Africa knocks it down to 12.5% by themselves, as no one is like them in pool A.
     
  14. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    Looking ahead -> link.
     
  15. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    August 2008 update -> link.
     
  16. goalkeeperlng

    goalkeeperlng New Member

    Aug 9, 2008
  17. Gold is the Colour

    Dec 17, 2005
    Perth Australia
    Club:
    Perth Glory
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    I don't think you've done one of these yet where Australia hasn't been in one of the tougher groups

    IMO H is G.O.D over F (Italy, Romania, USA, Cote d'Ivoire)
     
  18. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    You liked this one.
     
  19. Gold is the Colour

    Dec 17, 2005
    Perth Australia
    Club:
    Perth Glory
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Yeah - forgot that one :eek:
     
  20. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    hopefully the groups are not this hard, we are assuming with this exercise that all the best teams qualify. There will probably be a few that don't make it to be replaced by weaker teams. BUt I do think the groups on average will be harder than 2006.
     
  21. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    September 2008 update -> link.
     
  22. guynice_101

    guynice_101 Member

    Mar 24, 2005
    GTA (Toronto)
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    GROUP A....what a dream group to be in:D
     
  23. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My perspective must've been recently warped. I don't really see anything that stands out as a group of death in there.
     
  24. guynice_101

    guynice_101 Member

    Mar 24, 2005
    GTA (Toronto)
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    i thought group F looked a wee bit tough;)

    ITALY
    CZECH REP.
    AUSTRAILIA
    CAMEROON
     
  25. scmcbride21

    scmcbride21 New Member

    May 9, 2006
    United States
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Whatever way the seeds work out. Group A will be the group every non seeded team will want to be drawed into.
     

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