2010 Seeding Formula: January 2008 update

Discussion in 'World Cup 2010: General' started by Edgar, Jan 23, 2008.

  1. Gold is the Colour

    Dec 17, 2005
    Perth Australia
    Club:
    Perth Glory
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Don't mind group C for us (Aussies) - definate chance for 2nd behind Germany.

    Group A yet again Group of life.

    Group F is closest to G.O.D for me, with D and H not too far behind.
     
  2. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wow. That came early this month. Looks like they've pushed the release date to early in the month now. I got used to looking for this around the 15th - 20th.
     
  3. hihi

    hihi Red Card

    Mar 17, 2006
    Internet
    Club:
    Ulsan Horang I
    Nat'l Team:
    Paraguay
    I'm pretty sure South Africa will get teams easier than Japan and Paraguay. Something along the lines of Uzbekistan and Venezuela sounds a lot more like it.
     
  4. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is just a random draw according to FIFA rules. It doesn't take hot/cold balls into account...
     
  5. hihi

    hihi Red Card

    Mar 17, 2006
    Internet
    Club:
    Ulsan Horang I
    Nat'l Team:
    Paraguay
    Host, Ecuador, Poland, Costa Rica - 2006
    Co-Host, Belgium, Russia, Tunisia - 2002
    Host, Denmark, South Africa, Saudi Arabia - 1998
    Host, Romania, Switzerland, Columbia - 1994
    Host, Czechslovakia, Austria, USA - 1990

    Yes, random.
     
  6. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ok, one last time. This is a hypothetical draw. It is random. It doesn't take into account any cheating that may or may not go on during the actual draw. Which this isn't.

    Jeesh.
     
  7. hihi

    hihi Red Card

    Mar 17, 2006
    Internet
    Club:
    Ulsan Horang I
    Nat'l Team:
    Paraguay
    You need to calm down madam. Why do I have to be talking about one or the other? Until my last post, I was commenting on the draw that the site had predicted in reference to the actual draw (that will take place). Kind of like the same thing 'Gold is the Colour' was doing. Are we understanding each other now?
     
  8. seadondo

    seadondo Member

    Apr 8, 2008
    Redondo Beach
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    hihi, why do you think south africa will get easier teams like uzbekistan and venezuela? It sounds like you feel that the draw favors the host nations into getting easier draws, is this correct?
     
  9. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    FIFA and it's various confederations are notorious for having tournament hosts get very "lucky" draws. I don't know if anyone's done a statistical analysis, but the circumstantial evidence seems to point to a distinct lack of the supposed randomness that comes with a draw.
     
  10. Diego Maradona

    Diego Maradona Member+

    Apr 8, 2007
    London, England
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Will England start 2nd in the group stage or 1st

    As they didnt qualify for the Euro 2008, how much will that dent them ?
     
  11. code1390

    code1390 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 25, 2007
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Re: Will England start 2nd in the group stage or 1st

    Are you talking about WC Qual? If so, than yes. England was in pot B because they were the #10 European team in the FIFA rankings with only 9 groups.
     
  12. Diego Maradona

    Diego Maradona Member+

    Apr 8, 2007
    London, England
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Re: Will England start 2nd in the group stage or 1st

    I mean if they qualify for the WC 2010, out of the 4 will they be automatic top or second
     
  13. Gary V

    Gary V Member+

    Feb 4, 2003
    SE Mich.
  14. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  15. Diego Maradona

    Diego Maradona Member+

    Apr 8, 2007
    London, England
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    So could England be pot B at this rate?
     
  16. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'll take a wild guess without doing math and say that it's possible. Since they're not in the Euro Cup this summer, Portugal could rack up points and go past them in the rankings. Netherlands, Czech Republic and Croatia could rack up points as well, but with that big gap between those three and England, I think its unlikely they could move past them.

    But someone that knows the math better than me can probably give a more substantive and numerically supported opinion.
     
  17. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    england quite frankly does not deserve a seed. Portugal or Holland would be much better.
     
  18. justboy

    justboy Member

    Jun 21, 2005
    Portland, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    Scotland
    You, are correct sir.
     
  19. Sagy

    Sagy Member

    Aug 6, 2004
    I think that Portugal is the only one with a realistic chance of overtaking England.

    Based on WC points (1/2 the formula) England started with a 4 points edge over Portugal, 7 over Mexico 10.67 over South Korea and 11.67 over Netherlands. 1/6 of the second half (FIFA ranking) is also in, if Netherlands, Croatia and Greece make it to the WC, then Portugal made up 2/3 (4/6) of a point and Netherlands 1/2 of a point. Por, Ned & Eng are currently 9th, 10th and 11th. By Dec Eng might fall as low as 13th but no much lower (if Eng doesn't do well in WCQ they will not be in the WC so non of this makes any difference).

    Por could end up 3rd, but for that they will need Italy, Germany, Czech Republic, France and Greece to fail (Portugal is only 49 a head of 12th ranked Romania, but 65 points behind 8th ranked Greece). They also need Ned to not pass them (they are only 8 points back). Realistically the best they Por or Ned can expect by Dec is 5th (great Euro run and near perfect start for WCQ).

    For Ned that will not be enough, gaining 2.67 points (2*8/6) will still leave them 8.5 points behind so they will need to be 17 places ahead of England (out of 32 WC teams) bu Nov 2009 in order to make that up - this is not going to happen if Eng is in the WQ.

    For Por this is doable, if they can finish 6 places ahead of Eng this year the will close the gap to 1.33 points, this means that they will only have to be 3 places ahead of Eng in Nov 2009 to take over 7th place (If Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Italy, Spain and France qualify). If any of the teams between Por and Eng, fails to qualify they are not counted which means that Por will probably need another place or two ahead of Eng in the FIFA ranking.
     
  20. tomwilhelm

    tomwilhelm Member+

    Dec 14, 2005
    Boston, MA, USA
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Repped for awesomeness
     
  21. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    See, this is why I didn't even try to do the math.:)

    Thanks for laying it all out for us, Sagy!
     
  22. Edgar

    Edgar Member

    June 2008 update -> link.
     
  23. Gold is the Colour

    Dec 17, 2005
    Perth Australia
    Club:
    Perth Glory
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Easiest to hardest:
    A - Sth Korea could win this group:eek:
    B - France and Croatia
    C - Spain or Ghana just over Bulgaria

    . - Break in quality

    G - Even group but all could struggle in other groups (don't underestimate the Uzbeks!)

    . - Break in quality

    D - Germany and Netherlands should have it over Japan and Egypt, but no certainty
    H - Argies first, Cameroon just over USA and Czech
    E - Brazil first, Australia and Nigeria to battle for second just over Greece
    F - Mexico just squeezed out by other three in G.O.D

    My tips:
    R16
    KOR - CRO
    ESP - NED
    BRA - POR
    ENG - CAM*

    FRA - SCO
    GER - GHA *
    CIV - AUS*
    ARG - UZB

    QUARTERS
    CRO - NED
    BRA - CAM
    FRA - GHA
    ARG - CIV - match of the cup

    SEMIS
    NED - BRA
    CIV - GHA

    FINAL
    NED - CIV

    THIRD
    BRA - GHA

    * I have given a lot of creedence to it being an African cup - hence CIV beating Italy and Portugal and Cameroon and Ghana doing well.
     
  24. Lusankya

    Lusankya Moderator
    Staff Member

    Nov 14, 2007
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    You really think that Ghana could beat Germany, France and Brazil? And only three European teams in the quarters but three Africans??? Even 2002 by far the worst Tournament for european teams, they had still 4 teams in QF and 9 in round of last 16.
     
  25. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    D E F H are all very rough groups, while the others are substantially weaker. It would be a great tournament.
     

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