2010/2011 Portugal Clubs Coefficient Watch [R]

Another great day for Portugal--three games, one win, two draws, but most importantly, Porto, Benfica, and Braga all advance through to the quarterfinals. Brief summary:

Porto 2-1 CSKA Moskva

PSG 1-1 Benfica

Liverpool 0-0 Braga

This nets us only .8 UEFA points for the three results, but also .6 thanks to the three bonus points for advancing to the quarterfinals of the tournament. Hence we're now at 14.4 points overall. This more or less locks up fourth place, since we're ahead of Italy in fifth at 11.571 points (and they have only one team left, so no real shot at catching up).

But of more interest, there's a plausible shot at catching up with a couple of the countries still ahead of us--Spain and Germany, at 2d and 3d place respectively, have about 14.8 points, and that's not very far ahead of us. Germany in particular has only one team left--Schalke--and if they lose in the CL quarters as they well might, then we could catch them if we keep our run alive.

On the other hand, teams are not seeded in the quarters, and sides from the same national association are permitted to face each other, so a lot will depend on the draw. The best outcome would be for all three teams to get separated in the draw, and then win; though if two teams did get drawn against one another, that would guarantee points in the quarters, a team in the next round, and bonus points for reaching the semis.

FWIW, I calculate the chances of two Portuguese teams facing each other in a randomly drawn quarterfinal to be about 50%. Here's how:

1. Start with a Portuguese team and randomly select an opponent. Chances of a Portuguese opponent: 2/7.

2. Next round: assume another Portuguese team and that the previous chosen team wasn't Portuguese. Chances of a portuguese opponent: 1/5.

3. 2/7 + 1/5 = about 50% (.485).

Is this right? I am no stats person, so I'd put the probability that this is flawed at like 70%.

 

It's actually a little more complicated than that (more multiplying and what not). If I find time later tonight I'll find the probability, isn't hard, but the last thing I want to do after work is look at more numbers .

Good stuff per usual, um_chili.

 

Thanks, and because I'm a total dork, I'd actually be interested to see how to correctly calculate the probability if you have the time/interest.

 

Haha, well, it actually is more complicated than I first anticipated (largely since I haven't done probability like this in years). For starters, the simplest calculation would be assuming that a Portuguese team is the first team drawn out of the lot of 8. Thus there is a 3/8 possibility of that happening. Then there are 2 Portuguese teams left in a lot of 7. The probability that the initial Portuguese team is drawn with another Portuguese in that case would then be (3/8)(2/7)= an 11% chance. Now, the problem with this type of overall scenario is that we don't know how many Portuguese teams there will be after the first round of picks, how many there will be left after the second round of picks, after the 3rd round, etc. etc. For example, if we follow my first example and assumed the first team drawn is Portuguese and the following one is Portuguese (an 11% chance of happening) then there would be a 0% chance of the 3rd Portuguese team being drawn with another Portuguese team because they'd be the only one left. I'm sure I'm forgetting a simple formula that could easily get the answer, but for now, there isn't much more I can remember

 

Yeah, that was an awesome day for Portuguese teams.

But who am I kidding? The highlight yesterday was watching Balotelli Fail:
http://www.101greatgoals.com/fail-m...to-put-his-bib-on-man-city-dynamo-kiev/87640/

(sorry, it's hardly pertinent to the topic except I found the video while reviewing the highlights of the Portuguese club games - I was laughing so hard I was tearing up - I just had to share). Balotelli is either insane, retarded or both. I think Manchester City now knows what Inter had to suffer through.

Anyway, good draw for Portuguese teams! They avoid each other for another round. Porto and Benfica have been so strong this season I wouldn't be surprised to see them both go through. Braga, not sure - a huge surprise they managed to beat a resurgent 'Pool.

 

The fantastic form of the remaining Portuguese clubs has benefited...Sporting If we finish in 3rd place at the end of 2011/12, at least we'll get into the qualifying phase of the CL. Of course, finishing first is always the main goal however that happens only once every decade

 

Interesting and fortunate in two respects. First, that no Portuguese teams got drawn against one another. And second, that the toughest non-Portuguese team out there--Villarreal IMO, though others are welcome to disagree--got drawn into the only other bracket.

I rate Porto to advance, as well as Benfica if they play to their level. Braga has the toughest of the three draws, I think. Dinamo Kiev is a pretty distant second to Shakhtar in the Ukraine premier league right now, but Braga doesn't do so hot playing away in colder climates. Then again, people have been writing them off all year, and they've kept right on kicking ass so I wouldn't dismiss them either.

 

Really? ok good the work is done.

now forca PSV, Spartak, and Dynamo Kiev.

2011/12 season will be the epic Revenge of Sporting CP

 

I thought you were a die hard Sporting fan? This season, you are a "vira casacas"

It must of hurt seeing Porto beat CSKA Moscow. I'm sure CSKA still give Sporting fans night terrors.

 

Holy crap--another massive day for Portuguese teams in Europe:

Porto buries Spartak Moskva at home, 5-1, thanks to Falcao hat-trick

Benfica crushes PSV Eindhoven at home, 4-1, thanks to Salvio and Saviola

Braga draws Dynamo Kyiv away, 1-1, thanks to an own-goal from Gusev

It's a major haul of UEFA points that puts us ahead of Germany and Italy for third place outright in Europe on the year, with 15.4. Even Spain isn't that far ahead, with 15.645.

And it should make us cautiously optimistic about Portuguese teams in the semis. Both Porto and Benfica head away in the next round, though it would take crushing losses--4-0 and 3-0 respectively--to give up their leads. And Braga comes home, where they've played excellently so far this year, needing any win, or even a scoreless draw, to advance. Lots of work to do, but the chances of three Portuguese teams in the semis are very realistic, and the hope of an all-Portuguese final remains plausible too. Props to all three teams for continuing to contribute to a banner year for Portugal in Europe.

 

Does anybody has a link to see the current coefficients? How's la liga compare to the epl?

 

Go nuts

http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/

 

thanks very helpful

 

1 win and 2 draws today and 3 Portuguese teams advance to the semi-finals!

 

Congrats! that will put you in 3rd place.

 

Whoa--the dream continues as Portugal gets three teams into the Europa League semis. Benfica will face Braga, and Porto will face Villarreal. Today's results more or less clinch finishing no farther down than third in Europe this season, though in theory Germany could still pass us (for that, Schalke would have to win the Champs league with four victories--not terribly likely). We remain third behind Spain, but just barely--we're at 16.8, they're at 16.98. And both Portugal and Spain have two teams left in the competition, but two of Spain's are in the Champs League, and that gives them a big edge--victories in the CL garner many more bonus points than victories in the Europa League at this stage, and that's probably fair. But in any event, it's been an insanely great year for Portuguese teams in Europe so far. Worst-case, we have a Portuguese team guaranteed to be in the Europa League final, and a real chance at two. Here's the data from Kassies for those who are interested:

http://www.xs4all.nl/~kassiesa/bert/uefa/data/method4/ccoef2011.html

 

Hey guys, this is starting to lose it's fun if you are going to troll between each others in an european forum. Dissing the russians is one thing, disputing your domestic bitterness is another. It just makes us look bad.

My club is buried down, 2 leagues below, and is still included in trolling comments to FC Porto as a collateral damage. Show some maturity, restrain and class to the fact that we have 3 portuguese clubs this year in Europa League (we're not winning the CL ffs) and take your rivalries to this forum where it belongs.

Our reputation as whiny, intrusive and etc is already unfairly propagated around, don't give them anymore reasons to find this amusing.

 

I know what you mean but if I see Porto's name being slurred then I'm going to defend the club.

 

How feasible is to overcome France at the start of next season?
As it stands now, we're 2 points away from that (since Frances loses 2 with the withdrawal of 06/07 season) and to my surprise I'm completely clouded to how much is a victory at this stage, etc.

It would be nice to start the next season with the 5th place and going shoulder on shoulder with the french.

 

It's 2 points per win divided by 5 (the number of teams), so 0.4. We would need 5 wins, if there is no winning bonus. Can't find if there is...

 

This is only hypothetical, but let's say a Spanish team wins the CL final, and Villarreal wins every game in the Europa league including the final. How many points would la liga have then?