2009 MLS Attendance Analysis: Week 27

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Andy_B, Sep 14, 2009.

  1. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Code:
    % of season completed				
    81.3%				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	17957	15471	21.5%	29.2%
    1997	14780	13152	22.3%	15.4%
    1998	14363	11763	25.6%	16.0%
    1999	14542	13101	31.4%	15.4%
    2000	13466	12347	36.5%	10.9%
    2001	14937	13376	25.8%	18.0%
    2002	15464	13493	18.6%	15.9%
    2003	14787	13771	23.8%	18.0%
    2004	15132	13064	27.9%	23.0%
    2005	14897	12311	30.1%	16.0%
    2006	15187	12979	21.2%	16.7%
    2007	16009	14623	9.5%	23.4%
    2008	16349	15078	11.8%	24.1%
    2009	15710	14516	15.8%	19.7%
    				
    				
    Final Numbers				
    Year	Average	Median	%<10K	%>20k
    1996	17406	15093	21.9%	26.3%
    1997	14619	12733	25.0%	16.3%
    1998	14312	11871	26.6%	16.1%
    1999	14282	12973	32.3%	15.1%
    2000	13756	12690	34.4%	12.5%
    2001	14962	13431	26.6%	17.7%
    2002	15821	14108	17.1%	18.6%
    2003	14898	13641	23.3%	18.0%
    2004	15559	13285	24.7%	25.3%
    2005	15108	12619	27.1%	17.7%
    2006	15504	14175	18.8%	18.8%
    2007	16770	15353	8.2%	29.7%
    2008	16459	15188	11.0%	24.8%
    
     
  2. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    AAQ:

    Average: 4th out of 14
    Median: 4th out of 14
    <10K: 3rd out of 14
    >=20k: 5th out of 14

    AAQ = (4+4+3+5)/4 = 4
     
  3. bunge

    bunge BigSoccer Supporter

    Oct 24, 2000
    What's it going to take to bump the median up over 15K?
     
  4. Andy_B

    Andy_B Member+

    Feb 2, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    a miracle? :)

    I have not looked at the data but I am not even sure it is realistically possible at this time.

    It certainly is mathematically possible but once you factor in the games that are dead certain to lower the median I think it is fair to say it will not happen.
     
    1 person likes this.
  5. RerunStubs

    RerunStubs Member

    Dec 8, 2006
    28 out of the last 42 games above 15,000. And not that you asked, but it would also take 28 out of the last 42 games above 15,093 to finish with the third-ranked median in history.

    Both seem pretty unlikely at this point.
     
  6. GunnerJacket

    GunnerJacket Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 18, 2003
    Gainesville, GA
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Provides a not-said-often-enough "Thank you" to Andy for the regular stats showcase.
     
  7. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I come up with 19 matches remaining that are likely to draw 15k or more, that is not to say that they will, just that if any are going to for certain it will be them. I do not have the dates in front of me but they are not hard to decipher. They are the remaining home games for

    Seattle - 2
    Toronto - 2
    RSL - 2
    Galaxy - 3
    DC United - 3
    Houston - 3
    Chicago - 3
    Dallas - 1 (The Cotton Bowl match)

    This is also not to say that the odd match elsewhere, (particularly Columbus and Chivas) won't draw 15k or greater. It was just easier to list those most likely too.
     
  8. RedBullSoccer

    RedBullSoccer New Member

    Apr 28, 2008
    This year would be much lower if not for Seattle.
     
  9. Aaron d

    Aaron d Member+

    May 15, 2005
    Wooster
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Columbus will be hosting the Beckham show for the only time this year. I would count on that as being 15+. Also, I think Columbus has gotten 19+ something like 5 out of the last 6 years for a final regular season home match.

    But we'd have lower expectations if we didn't add Toronto and higher numbers if we didn't add SJ. Expansion bumps are the norm for most the last years. If you stop including Seattle, you must compare numbers excludingToronto, SJ, Houston (new team bump), etc.
     
  10. cthomer5000

    cthomer5000 Member+

    Apr 23, 2007
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Wouldn't have been an attendance thread without this.
     
  11. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Its replaced MOVE KC/SJ!!!!
     
  12. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Can't wait for next year when it will be Philly saved the leagues attendance, and where would we be if Seattle hadn't opened more seating.

    :rolleyes:

    And Aaron I did not realize that Columbus had yet to host Bex & Co and you are correct that the finale usually draws very well. So add those 2 matches to my numbers above and we are at 21 that are likely to draw 15k+
     
  13. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZbtAFq7dP8"]YouTube - Bill Murray - Best scenes from the "Groundhog Day" - 4[/ame]
     
  14. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    With Philly having a capacity of 18,500, I doubt many people will be saying that.
     
  15. BirdsonFire

    BirdsonFire Member

    May 9, 2008
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Yeah, but KC has come around with a very innovative approach to the Move KC contingent.


    The Move KC crowd is now saying Move KC to KC.


    I gotta respect them for their ability to find the silver lining.
     
  16. PhantomTollbooth

    PhantomTollbooth New Member

    Jul 20, 2004
    Appleton, WI
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Why would you move SJ to KC? There's no way that market can support two teams!

    :D
     
  17. UNION S.C.

    UNION S.C. Member

    Feb 15, 2007
    Los Angeles, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I still wonder why Philly is building Chester to seat 18,500. With 10k season tickets sold, why not add 1,500 or 2,500 more seats during the stadiums construction that's in progress.
     
  18. Matrim55

    Matrim55 Member+

    Aug 14, 2000
    Berkeley
    Club:
    Connecticut
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Because it would take that much longer to get the stadium built.

    Right now they just want it ready for April. After a year of sell outs (presumably), they'll go back in and add another 4k seats. The stadium itself is designed to be expanded.
     
  19. BirdsonFire

    BirdsonFire Member

    May 9, 2008
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    high demand can be a very good thing
     
  20. Chris '66

    Chris '66 New Member

    Aug 9, 2007
    Brooklyn, NY
    It will certainly be interesting to see if Philly goes gangbusters for the Union or if they end up as a solid 15 to 17k season average. A full house each match would indeed be awesome and then as mentioned the expansion can start in two seasons. Does that party deck have any options to place temp stands if needed?
     
  21. DoctorD

    DoctorD Member+

    Sep 29, 2002
    MidAtlantic
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The counterargument is that, thanks to the expansion draft, the rest of the league is weaker than it would be without Seattle. All those expansion players would be with their old teams (or at least in the league) improving the league quality. And as is constantly asserted on these boards, an increase in quality will directly lead to higher attendance and income for the league.
     
  22. patrickwsu

    patrickwsu Member

    May 7, 2009
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Is that a real argument that people are giving? Seattle thinned out the talent? Seattle had 10 expansion draft picks. Who were the picks that Seattle took from elsewhere in the league? Jaqua, Sturgis, Parke (still not eligible to play), Jarrod Smith, Khano Smith, Vagenas, Wahl, Riley, King and Evans.

    Jaqua, Riley and Evans are usual starters. Vagenas has worked his way into the lineup frequently, and Wahl and King have some playing time too. Khano Smith was given to New York for some extra allocation money and then New York cut him.

    Seattle added a lot from outside the league that would not have been in the MLS without Seattle. I would guess that Ljungberg, Keller, Montero, Alonso, Le Toux and Levesque have more positive impact on play in the league than our expansion draft "detriment" to the league. Of those players, only Alonso was likely to be with a different MLS team if the Sounders didn't come in and make a deal to get his rights. I could include Hurtado in the list, but his contract stuff is even weirder than Montero's so I won't speculate as to where he would be without Seattle.

    People can't be thinking about this deeply, because noone would claim that Seattle's expansion draft thinned the quality of the league more than Seattle added with players they have brought in such as Keller, Ljungberg, Montero, Alonso, Le Toux and Levesque.
     
  23. edwardgr

    edwardgr Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 6, 2006
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And if they average 18.5k they will positively impact <10k, Median, and Average, while only negatively affecting >20k. So maybe save was the wrong word, but we could still get the ridiculous without Philly statements that have been made about Seattle this year.
     
  24. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    People seem to forget that Red Bull Arena is also opening. Not that I'm expecting them to positively affect >20k. But the new venue alone with the supposed easier NYC access is likely to produce a boost as well.

    But, I guess, what with the Red Bulls sucking so horribly this year and with the evidence that some have pointed out at various times that new stadiums don't really increase attendance, maybe I shouldn't mention that.
     
  25. crookeddy

    crookeddy Member+

    Apr 27, 2004
    Red Bulls sucking this year is really the worst thing that could have happened. The Galaxy opened the HDC by winning the title the previous year, and that might have helped. Who knows how that great opening would have gone had Galaxy been the worst team of all time the previous year?
     

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