Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I think you'll get 12-1 or better tomorrow. This is the horse no one talks about. The media acts like he's the #4 horse in the Zito stable. My worry is that in each of his last two races, he's had another horse taking big chunks out of his lead at the wire, and I'm not sure he gets the extra furlong. That said, he's a fighter, and he might just gut it out. In all probability, this is Jerry Bailey's last Derby. His skills are declining, although he's not mired in the horrible slump he was in at the beginning of the year, when I made piles of money betting against anything he rode. Incidentally, I just finished his biography-- that's one guy who doesn't pull any punches when examining himself.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Oaks day action. I'm not investing a lot of money today, in order to not blow the bankroll for tomorrow. As such, I've played an early pick 3 today. If it hits I have the pick 3 surrounding the Oaks all set to play. If it doesn't, I'll watch the Oaks and live to play another day. Here's what I've got, a pick 3 beginning in the 5th at CD: 5th: Dynamite Lass, Rich in Spirit, Sweet Talker (I think Cape Hope is a beatable favorite) 6th: Limehouse 7th: Sgt. Bert, Wrzeszcz, Parker Run, Da Valmont, Mighty Beau Total investment: $15
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I'm going to play a small Oaks ticket, but other than that, I'm playing Belmont only today. Frankly, I don't want to get preconceived notions today about the track when I know they're going to tighten it a little for tomorrow. But I hope you're playing closers today, because that's all that's winning.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I need to get Limehouse home in the 6th. He looks to hold a class edge, and if closers are getting up then I like his chances (I'm at work with no access to video). After that, I think I've got the 7th race covered, although I've seen some strange sh1t in that Oaks day 5f turf sprint. We'll see what happens there... My late pick 3, if I can manage to hit my current pick 3, would start in the 9th. I've got about 4 horses I like, then in the Oaks I'm torn. If I spread and Sis City wins it will feel like a loss. I haven't decided how I'm going to play it. I think you've talked me off Summerly, though. But the key to the whole thing would be beating Mother in the 11th. If the outside is the place to be today, then we've got a good chance to upset the favorite there...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail So far, so good. When I saw Skipaslew was in that race, I was worried for you. Runway Model and In The Gold really look good to me today, the way the track is playing. But I should mention, I get killed when I let someone else talk me off a horse.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I'm thinking of just using the 5 main contenders in the Oaks and hope Sis City doesn't win. Here's my problem: in the 11th there's a horse called Exploivacious. She ran head and head from the rail the whole way in her last at Keeneland, and ended up gutting out the win in what's turning out to be a very productive maiden race (the 2nd place finisher returned to win, and the 3rd place finisher won the 1st race at CD this morning). It's too early to deem her a speed horse after only two lifetime starts, but I've got to think she'll be right up on the pace with Mother. If it weren't for the apparent track bias I wouldn't be worried and would just use her. But at 4-1 on the M/L and in light of the fact that speed isn't holding up, should I throw her out and use Southern Barfly instead? I just can't throw out Mother (although I'll be rooting my ass off against her, just like Sis City), and I only want to go five deep. I'm going to use Soul Search, Lacy Gray and Atlas Valley for sure, along with Mother as insurance. So I'm left to choose between Exploivacious and Southern Barfly for the final spot. Whadda ya think?
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I’m with Steve Crist on this when he said that if this race were the sixth race on a Thursday, any sane handicapper would turn the page and move on to the next race. But it’s the Derby, my annual chance to make a fool out of myself… Sort It Out has shown little space out of the gate, and will be pinned back to the inside. I’m not thrilled with Blanc on him. I think Baffert is fishing here. Toss him. Andromeda’s Hero has rising Beyers and has some close in him, but if he can’t handle Flower Alley how will he be able to handle Flower Alley’s superiors? Sun King has regressed off that nice allowance win at Gulfstream, and although there is a history of horses running poorly in the Blue Grass but bouncing back to win well in the Derby, his Tampa win was awfully slow, and he’s had his chances at Bandini, High Limit, Afleet Alex, and Wilko, and been beaten by all of them. Noble Causeway is another improving horse. He has some late kick in him, and I trust Stevens as much as anyone to have him in decent position to make a move if he has any horse. I would have liked to see him make a little bit of a better move against High Fly, but because I think he’s improving I’m not gonna toss him just yet. Coin Silver is the hot longshot pick right now, and in some ways I can see why -- the rising Beyers, the nice finish in the Lexington, and the Pletcher-Valenzuela connection. But tomorrow’s track will be hard and fast, which may not be to his liking, and I think he’s gonna get a fair amount of play on the board. Including him in exotics will be post parade-time decision. High Limit will challenge for the lead. He might even get it. But he can’t carry it a mile and a quarter. Sorry Frankel, try again. Flower Alley has rising Beyers, but got hammered by Afleet Alex, and hasn’t beaten anyone worth mentioning. He might be a nice horse down the line, but he takes none of my money tomorrow. Grater Good was outclassed in the Arkansas Derby. He will also be outclassed in the Kentucky Derby. Greeley’s Galaxy is a little intriguing. I don’t like that he didn’t run at all at age 2, but that Illinois Derby race did draw a decent figure. I worry about his ability to get the distance though. While he won’t get any of my money, I’ll be interested to see how he runs. High Fly is no joke. All he’s done is win five out of six, and he has an excuse in the race he lost. He’s put away two decent horses in Noble Causeway and Bandini, Should be able to run a mile and a quarter. I like him. Afleet Alex is a very, very nice horse. Two of the top four figs in the race (behind Bellamy Road’s 120 and tied with Greeley’s 106), he rates nicely off the pace, and that Arkansas Derby race, while admittedly on Oaklawn’s very favorable stretch run, was impressive. Can’t ignore him. Spanish Chestnut will try for the lead. Spanish Chestnut has as much of a chance of winning as I do of wooing Shakira. Wilko is dealing with the curse of being the Juvie winner, and with the curse of likely being a little too plodding for this race. Possibly underneath in triples of supers, but I don’t see him figuring in the exacta. Bandini is a nice horse improving horse, and the Blue Grass was impressive. Velasquez will give him a good ride. Many things to like. I’ll include him. Bellamy Road is either a freak and he stomps on this field and we bow down to his greatness, or he is pulled along by a very fast pace and fades in the last quarter of a mile. I say it’s the latter, but even if it is the former, you’re only gonna get 2-1 on him, so I’m tossing him on value. Don’t Get Mad is going to be waaaaay off the pace. He may be able to pick up some pieces and slide into the triple. Closing Argument is a little outclasses here. No play. Going Wild is in trouble. Buzzards Bay may slide in and make exotics payoffs very nice. The SA Derby was crap, but he does have rising Beyers, Mullins’ drugs, and a nice six furlong work on Monday. I like High Fly and Afleet Alex – both just go out and win races (the Rebel aside…). I think they’re both good enough to toss a 108-110 at us, and that gets the job done tomorrow. Bellamy Road and assorted cheap speed go to the front, they run too fast, and the next group of stalkers goes by them. Afleet Alex and Noble Causeway are coming late. Afleet Alex is going to be tough, but I’m not sure how much I trust Rose. So if I had 30 bucks to toss on the race, here goes… $10 win on the 11. $2 exacta box 11-12. $2 exactas, 11 and 12 over 4, 5, 15, 20
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail With the pick 3 on races 5-7 paying just over $80, I've decided to throw out Mother in the 11th race and hope for the best. Here is the pick 3 I just played, beginning in the 9th race at CD: 9th: Dubleo, Exceptional Ride, Rey de Cafe, Rush Bay 10th: Runway Model, In the Gold, Sis City, Summerly, Memorette 11th: Soul Search, Lacy Gray, Exploivacious, Atlas Valley Total investment: $80
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail It just dawned on me that there could be a minus show pool in the Oaks. It might be worth a shot to put $2 to show on Runway Model and In the Gold in case Sis City runs out of the money...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I was reading the USA Today, and they had High Fly as their pick. I don't know who i'm gonna bet on yet, but i do like Noble Causeways name. I really need to buy a dart board or something, the lawn darts i've been using are too imprecise.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail While I agree with most everything you said, I think you should take a longer look at this guy. His Tampa win was slow for a reason-- Prado's instructions were to make sure the pack caught him before asking the horse-- Zito wanted to find out what the horse would do when confronted by other horses.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I'm glad you kept Summerly after all-- I thought of you as soon as the race was over.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Noble Causeway gets his name from two sources. First, he's the son of European champion Giant's Causeway, and second, his owner is one of the founders of Barnes and Noble Booksellers. Many horses are named that way. Afleet Alex is the son of Northern Afleet, and a number of the people in his ownership team have children named Alex. Spanish Chestnut is the son of Horse Chestnut. Don't Get Mad is the son of Stephen Got Even, while Closing Argument was sired by Successful Appeal, and finally, Buzzards Bay was sired by Marco Bay. Another common thing is using the names of both the sire and the dam. Sort It Out is the child of Out Of Place and Vex. Greeley's Galaxy was sired by Mr. Greeley and his dam (mother) is Ascot Starre. Giacomo is named after one of Sting's kids.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail More importantly, I also played her in the publichandicapper.com contest you told me about... I have to admit I was somewhat disappointed in the late pick 3 payout. The morning line on the 12 horse in the last race was 6-1, but she went off at 5/2 and the pick 3 payouts reflected a horse with a bad M/L. It ended up paying roughly the same amount that the pick 3 to the 7/5 morning line favorite would have paid. Very strange. Still can't really complain in that I started the day with $15 in my TVG account and really didn't want to make a deposit this weekend. Ok, I just played a pick 4 that ends with the Derby for Saturday (KY Derby Advance on TVG). I don't really like the 7th race, and I had toyed around with the idea of just using them all to start off the pick 4, but I wanted to try to beat Madcap Escapade in the Humana just to give myself the opportunity to hit a nice pick 4. So I used two horses in the Humana instead of just the favorite, meaning I had to cut down the number of horses I used in the 7th race to 3. It's scary because I can make a case for all 7 entrants (some more convincing than others, but nothing would shock me), and if I'm out after one race and Madcap Escapade ends up winning the 8th I'm gonna second guess myself the rest of the afternoon. Whatever, you can't use 'em all... Here's my $1 pick four: 7th: Boasting, Warning Zone, Ticker Tape 8th: Bending Strings, Madcap Escapade 9th: Meteor Storm, Sweet Return, Senor Swinger, Mustanfar, A to the Z Derby: Sun King, Noble Causeway, High Fly, Afleet Alex, Bandini Total investment: $150 I'm scared to death of Miss Terrible in the 7th, and of course Coin Silver in the Derby. But I had to draw the line somewhere to keep the ticket affordable. I'll play a few savers if I'm alive heading into the Derby, that's for sure... I also played this early pick 3 at CD beginning in the 1st race. Hopefully I can hit it (before I wake up) and have a little money with which to play the undercard before the big pick 4 starts. $1 pick three: 1st: Yes Yes Yes 2nd: Engineered, Watchem Smokey, Wildcat Shoes, Key Deputy 3rd: Elijah's Song Total investment: $4
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail $1 Pick 4 Ticket: ($56 Outlay) Race 7: 6, 7 Race 8: 9 Race 9: 1, 2, 5, 7 Race 10: 3, 4, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16 I would make a second ticket as well, using Souris instead of Madcap Escapade in the 8th and taking Sun King and Bellamy Road off, to make a backup ticket at $40.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail http://www.alexslemonade.com/ I haven't remembered to mention this, but Afleet Alex's connections are sending a check here everytime they run in the money. It's a great (but sad) story.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail OK, here we go $2 Exacta Box, High Fly, Bellamy Road ($4) $1 Exacta Box, High Fly, Afleet Alex, Coin SIlver ($6) $1 Exacta Box, Bellamy Road, Greeley's Galaxy, Afleet Alex ($6) $1 Exacta Box, HIgh Fly, Wilko, BAndini ($6) $1 Exacta Box, HIgh Fly, Noble Causeway, High Limit ($6) $2 Win, Wilko (hunch play as I'm seeing the band tonight) In fact, I have to watch the race on my portable tv because my train doesn't get into the station until 5:09.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail And almost on cue: 7th race - Churchill Downs - May 07, 2005 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 1 Miss Terrible (ARG) 12.40 6.00 4.40 8 Sand Springs 4.60 3.60 2 Shaconage 4.80 Fvck me!!!
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail 20 horses, anything can happen. I don't think Bellamy Road can beat 19 horses unless she gets a perfect trip/pace. My sentimental (no other reason) pick is Afleet Alex.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I have never felt worse cashing a win ticket than I did today. If Closing Argument was a neck better, my payout would have doubled. As it was, I still have a great story... I correctly picked the winner of the Kentucky Derby... on the first week of February. It's just that he paid double that day than he did in the first Future Wager pool. Oh, well-- the bragging rights will go on long after I spend the cash.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Just don't tell anyone your other pick came in 19th. I wonder if anyone hit the million dollar superfecta? Thats a good day at the track if they did.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I also had the second and 4th place finishers in my future wagers. *** Someone hit the super. If they hadn't, it still would have paid out, and they would have paid any super tickets that had the top 3 in order. Incidentally, the super, paying over $1.7 million, paid more than the winner's purse.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I still have yet to see a replay of the race, or hear the call. *** Ken Rudulph, one of TVG's studio hosts, was the only one of their broadcaster's to pick Giacomo. As he signed off from that broadcast, he said, "I just want to say something to my girlfriend... Daddy did it. I told you last night, and I came through. Daddy did it. Daddy's coming home with some money."
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Giacomo, left, with jockey Mike Smith up, wins the 131st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, Saturday, May 7, 2005, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Al Behrman )