Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Some other news throughout the business... Consolidator's sesamoid injury has now been deemed serious enough to retire the horse. D. Wayne Lukas says that surgery is not needed, but that they will treat him with stall rest... Michael Gill, the nation's leading owner in victories and earnings for the last 2 years, says that he's getting out of the business due to trackside politics. His 200+ horse operation, including facilities will be offered as a package at public auction , and failing that, he will put the horses in races where they are likely to be claimed... Magna Entertainment, the owner of Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park, Laurel, Pimlico, Golden Gate Fields as well as other tracks, reported a $4M loss last quarter. They blame rain in Southern California and the reconstruction of Gulfstream Park for much of the loss. Gulfstream was operating out of temporary pavilions that can only accomodate 1/3 of the people who came out in previous years. In addition, Golden Gate Fields had racing dates relocated to later in the year... NYRA begins raceday detention barns for all horses tomorrow... All horses racing in the Triple Crown this year will undergo pre-race blood testing for milkshakes and post-race urine testing for 140 different banned substances... Finally, Rick Dutrow, Jr, trainer of Kentucky Oaks favorite Sis City, has agreed to serve a 120 day (60 days deferred) suspension for several past violations of medication policies and claiming/reselling policies, in addition to paying a $5000 fine. Dutrow was the leading trainer of the Aqueduct main track meet, and has a ridiculously high 46% win percentage off the claim.
Notes on The Works (5/3) Kentucky Oaks Draw: 1 Runway Model (Valenzuela P) 6-1 2 Dance Away Capote (Velazquez J R) 15-1 3 In the Gold (Bejarano R) 7/2 4 Sis City (Prado E S) 4/5 5 Summerly (Bailey J D) 6-1 6 Rugula (Kuntzweiler G) 20-1 7 Aspen Tree (Castellano J J) 8-1 8 Memorette (Desormeaux K J) 15-1 9 Gallant Secret (Smith M E) 30-1 *** Afleet Alex had the only timed work, and went very smoothly, going four furlongs in 48 and 3. Wilko had a little gallop to get familiar with the track, but had a minor rearing incident. He looks like he traveled well. High Limit also galloped out nicely, and Sun King looked fairly strong, and moreover, he's been consistent, tugging his rider along every day. Bellamy Road had his head bowed the entire way, pulling on the reins, wanting to run in his 6.30 AM gallop. Greeley's Galaxy was smooth, with a slight pull on the reins. By and large, the majority of the horses we're seeing on The Works are showing signs of wanting to be cut loose. Horses know when race day is approaching, and with few exceptions (Greater Good, Closing Argument), they're raring to go. Giacomo ships out tomorrow, and I believe Buzzard's Bay will also ship on that plane. *** By the way, as much as I like Runway Model, she had a horrible work, just out of control, and as a result, I hate her rail draw. *** Tomorrow, Greeley's Galaxy and High Limit will have their last blowouts, and at 5PM ET, ESPN will be carrying the Derby post position draw.
Kentucky Derby 131 Post Position Draw Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds 1. Sort It Out B. Blanc B. Baffert 50-1 2. Andromeda's Hero R. Bejarano N. Zito 50-1 3. Sun King E. Prado N. Zito 15-1 4. Noble Causeway G. Stevens N. Zito 12-1 5. Coin Silver P. Valenzuela T. Pletcher 20-1 6. High Limit R. Dominguez R. Frankel 12-1 7. Flower Alley J. Chavez T. Pletcher 20-1 8. Greater Good J. McKee B. Holthus 20-1 9. Greeley's Galaxy K. Desormeaux W. Stute 15-1 10. Giacomo M. Smith J. Shireffs 50-1 11. High Fly J. Bailey N. Zito 8-1 12. Afleet Alex J. Rose T. Ritchey 9-2 13. Spanish Chestnut J. Bravo P. Biancone 50-1 14. Wilko C. Nakatani C.Dollase 20-1 15. Bandini J. Velazquez T. Pletcher 6-1 16. Bellamy Road J. Castellano N. Zito 5-2 17. Don't Get Mad T. Baze R. Ellis 30-1 18. Closing Argument C. Velasquez K. McLaughlin 30-1 19. Going Wild J. Valdivia Jr. D. W. Lukas 50-1 20. Buzzards Bay M. Guidry J. Mullins 20-1 Quick notes: Aside from #6, High Limit, most of the speed drew outside, with Spanish Chestnut at #13, Bellamy Road at #16, #19 Going Wild, and #20 Buzzards Bay. I particularly like the draws for horses 14-16. Wilko sits in the last spot in the main gate and Bandini gets the first spot in the auxiliary gate, meaning they have plenty of room, and Bellamy Road has off the pace runners two deep in both directions, so he'll have room to get free and get to the front. Ominously for him, however, is the fact that Spanish Chestnut is equally free. Particularly nice is the fact that most of the no-hopers are either pinned inside or stuck so far outside they'll be starting in Versailles.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I'm a big believer in the fitness "rules" that preclude seemingly talented horses from winning the Derby. A 3YO must have the proper foundation to win a 1 1/4 mile race against the best of his generation, and history has shown that it takes a certain amount of preparation in order do accomplish this. To avoid elimination based on this minimum level of prep: A horse must have raced at least once as a 2YO. He must have at least 5 lifetime starts. He must have at least 3 prep races as a 3YO. Horses who have not followed these guidelines generally do not win the Derby. There are a few examples of past winners that haven't fit this profile, but they are few and far between, and almost non-existant in the recent past. The above rules have successfully ruled out such high profile horses as Point Given and Congaree, among others. This year, Bellamy Road, Greeley's Galaxy, Flower Alley, Closing Argument & High Limit are all throwouts based on the above fitness angles. I don't believe this is hocus pocus like some of the past Derby "rules" about favorites, NY-breds, geldings, dosage, etc. Throwing out a horse for seemingly not being fit enough is sound logic. If the trend is bucked this year, so be it. But for now it makes too much sense for me to ignore. After throwing out the above horses, the rest of the field is narrowed down based on Beyer speed figures. Since Sea Hero in 93, every winner of the Derby has earned a Beyer figure of 100 or higher in one of his route preps. I'm not married to Beyer figs, but in general they are a nice tool to help seperate the very talented from the less talented. Horses that have earned a Beyer fig of 100 or higher over a route of ground this year are: Bellamy Road Afleet Alex Bandini High Fly Noble Causeway High Limit Greeley's Galaxy Sun King Going Wild Eliminating horses based on the previously outlined fitness rules, we're left with: Afleet Alex Bandini High Fly Noble Causeway Sun King Going Wild From the above list, Going Wild is a common sense throwout due to his running style and his poor recent form. That leaves my big five: Afleet Alex Bandini High Fly Noble Causeway Sun King The beauty of the Derby is if you can beat the favorite, you can make a little money if you can get alive to the winner on a pick 3 or pick 4 ticket. I'll be using all five of the above horses on my tickets, and if I had to pick one to put a little more money on it'd be Sun King. He has a great foundation, a perfect prep schedule, has shown the ability to run fast, rate and finish. And best of all, he'll be a great price. Somewhere around 15-1 if we're lucky. All that crap being said, it wouldn't shock me if Bellamy Road were to win. But at 2-1 he's totally unbettable...
Notes on The Works (5/4) Quote of the Day: I think it's disgraceful that Spanish Chestnut is running. He has zero chance of winning and the Kentucky derby does not need rabbits. Tabor and Smith may need rabbits in England where without one they might run the first half in 54, but this horse is just clutteing up the field. You could give him a 10-length headstart and he still wouldn't win.-- Steven Crist *** First pick in the Draw was Bandini, 2nd Afleet Alex. Bellamy Road picked 10th. Buzzard's Bay had the 20th pick. *** Weather is expected to be between 74-80 degrees Saturday at race time. *** High Limit and Greeley's Galaxy worked today. High Limit was under exercise rider Jose Cuevas and went 48 and 1 under no urging whatsoever. Greeley's Galaxy was more relaxed than his mile last week, and went 5f in an easy 101 and 3. High Fly had a gallop under Maxine Correa, and really started pulling when a horse doing a timed work passed him. Carlos Correa had to use hands and feet to restrain Noble Causeway in his gallop today. *** Nick Zito said while he will not sit with any of his five owners on Saturday, he will "be involved" in saddling all of them.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail My honest feeling is that this race is going to be decided on pace and race shape, and not on rules, even if they have historically stood up. Steven Crist was discussing that in his chat on DRF.com tonight. Most of these rules (including the one you didn't mention of no more than 4 weeks layoff, which would eliminate High Fly and Noble Causeway) may be ready to pass on because they held up in the past because the exception to the rule was much more out of the ordinary, whereas this year, the horse that followed the "rules" is the exception. So what if, for instance, no Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has ever won. Someone's gotta be first. How many former claimers won before Charismatic? Dosage once made sense, too. And it's not like the whole scope of things hasn't been changed by the shuffling of dates by the folks at the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial, or the suddenly outsized purses/bonuses the Arky Derby folks put out. Moreover, today's thoroughbred is a more fragile animal than even the one of ten years ago. What worked for Tim Tam or Foolish Pleasure simply doesn't apply. Look, it's no secret I like most of the horses on your list, and I'm doing some serious rethinking of my opposition to Afleet Alex right now. And I agree that the Pick 4 ($1M guaranteed) and the Pick 6 ($500K guaranteed) are a great way to play these horses. But I wouldn't make it my primary way of playing them. The only horse that I think is going to give you value compared to his win odds is Bellamy Road. Take a long look at the card for Saturday. http://www.drf.com/entries/07/eCD07.html#5 (I've set this to start at the 5th race because that's when the Pick Six begins. The pick 4 begins with the 7th.) You mean to tell me that your money is better invested in trying to pick two tough turfers and a G1 distaffer than in win bets on those horses you've named? I have a rule I try to manage money by: if you've got a live horse who's 10-1 or better (and I think 3 of those will be), make sure you cash a ticket. Bet win and key in the exacta and the triple if you have to, but get paid for your good handicapping. I did that with Gygistar today. He was better odds than I expected, and I keyed him in all three holes in the Westchester Handicap at Belmont, and he managed to win it outright. He paid $84 on the $2 triple (I had it for $1) and $7.80 to win, which I had 5 times. Obviously in the Derby, it's a lot harder to hit the vertical exotics, but with 20 runners, this is one of those races where there's no shame in playing the place bet. I guess what I'm getting at is that it will take some handicapping and not just feeding in a punch card.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I aint gloatin but I've drop $270. on week. Yesturday went for Supafecta. If you got $96 for box on $2, you take $1000.00 to $10,000.00. This is hefty wagers but once a year aint bad. Yesturdays second race went 8149 for $21,000.00. You box it and bamalistics for $10,500.00. So keep Chase, Discover and Express yourself! Seriously, half folks can lose. If you don't find methodologies, phone calls can ignore.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Today, I saw the biggest super payoff at Belmont. $35757.00 The pool was $47676 which confirms what I suspected. One winning ticket. The only way you can play the super regularly without a massive bankroll is the new 10 cent supers. Unfortunately, NYRA still doesn't allow you to play it at that amount, even when playing tracks that have the dime super. Fortunately, Nassau and Suffolk OTB's do allow you to play it. I'd never consider playing the super for more than a dollar a ticket. I gotta introduce you to ZANI. He makes as much sense as you do.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I purposely left out the angle regarding the 5 week or more layoff, because of the Florida Derby move. In the past I don't recall there ever being a major prep exactly 5 weeks out, so it's a relatively meaningless rule this year. When Bandini came out of the FOY and won the Blue Grass, it just flattered High Fly's form, and by association Noble Causeway. Incidentally, I was in on the drf chat this evening. I asked the question about his feelings on the strongest prep race, since every single prep this year has been degraded for one reason or another. Predictably, he said the Wood and the ARK... I believe there's a good reason why no Juvy winner has won the Derby. The winner of the BC is usually a faster-developing horse beating other 2YO's who are less developed. Arazi is a perfect example. He blew by those other 2YO's as if, like Trevor Denman would say, "he just jumped in at the quarter pole!". But Arazi was like that 6-foot tall twelve-year-old in your rec basketball league. He's bigger and better than everyone at 12. But come high school, the others have usually caught or passed him, athletically and maturity-wise. Not saying it's impossible for a BC winner to win the Derby, but it makes sense that it hasn't happened... Look at Wilko. On paper he hasn't really improved since October... Still, you're right in that training methods are definitely changing, and eventually some horse will buck the "rules" and win without the same preparation that it used to take, but at 2-1 I'm not about to guess it's gonna happen this year... I haven't really looked at the form yet for Saturday, but in general I'm more comfortable handicapping for the win than for the lower rungs of the exotics. I've hit a few decent supers over the years, but more often than not I'm frustrated because someone who had no business being there clunked up for 4th and I didn't hit the "all" button. And hitting the "all" button gets way too expensive if done on a regular basis. And this year, aside from Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild, I can't eliminate anybody with confidence for the 4th or even the 3rd slot. And since I don't have a strong enough opinion about a particular horse or two that I could key on, a tri or super ticket that I'd feel comfortable with would cost much more than I'm willing to invest. Last year was different, when I liked 3 horses for the top two slots (Smarty, Lion Heart and Cliff's Edge) and about 5 others for 3rd. The whole trifecta ticket only cost me $36, and paid nicely. But had I elected to play the super, there's no way in heck I would have had Limehouse without hitting the all button. That ticket would have cost well over $500. Granted it would have paid $20K, but how often does that happen? I think in the barrage of available exotics these days, I've lost all appreciation for the exacta. Perhaps in a race like this year's Derby it would be a good time to revisit that line of thinking. I tend to agree with you that race shape, pace and trip are the most important factors when all is said and done. With speed drawn inside (Spanish Chestnut) and out (Going Wild), it will be interesting to see if Bellamy Road wants to run with the leaders. He sure looked like he rated on the lead in the Wood, but he wasn't head and head with anybody so it's not a surprise that he was able to relax in spite of the fast fractions. So, he either runs with the cheap speed or stalks. There's always the possibility of the "stalker's duel" among the second flight of horses who all want position. Bellamy Road could still be about five wide into the first turn when Sun King, Coin Silver, High Fly, Afleet Alex and Bandini among others try to hold their ground. My gut feeling is that Bellamy Road will either have some sort of trouble during the race, a la Holy Bull, or will range up at the quarter pole and hang, a la Unbridled's Song. I'm hoping it's the latter because it will validate the fitness argument. But either way I'll be happy, because if BR does lose I feel I've got the race covered on the win end. Nice hit on Gygistar. I've always liked him, and to be honest I didn't realize he was running today. But, I digress... I've always liked the Derby undercard. I'll probably play a reasonably priced pick 4 that ends with the Derby. If I'm alive after one race I'll sit. If not, I'll play a pick 3 in the next race. If I'm not alive heading into the Derby, in most year's I'd play a trifecta but I'll probably take your advice and play the exacta instead. I can't see putting $10 to win on each of my five horses, where the most I could expect to get back would be $200. If I had any sort of conviction about just one or two horses I'd probably play to win and also up and down the exotics like you said. I've always felt like good handicapping should be rewarded, but I'm not sure my narrowing the field down to five constitutes good handicapping, although some might say that if you've logically identified a vulnerable favorite then you've handicapped the race well and should be rewarded. I hope we can both be rewarded this Saturday...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Bellamy Road trained by Zito, owned by Steinbrenner For the record, Coach Rick Pitino had two race yesterday. He finished forth on first and won with second. There is some indication here.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I saw that one. I have to say, DRF does a better job of screening questions than a lot of other chats I've followed. I didn't like the Arky Derby, though. The field was crap. I'm not fond of the Wood field, or the Florida Derby one, which was decimated by the strangles scare. Wilko's a good reason to look at the replays rather than taking the DRF at face value. His Hollywood Futurity was very game despite a cracked hoof on the first turn, and he ran huge against the track bias and a slow pace in the SA Derby, and it was obvious he would have overhauled the leaders with any more ground added. The Awesome Again in his blood says 1 and 1/4 is his distance, I think. I don't blame you. Since Bellamy Road hasn't shown some ability to rate, and because this certainly isn't the War Emblem field, I'm hoping he finishes 3rd or worse. It's a widespread belief among my friends that I'm a super type of guy. They've overlooked that I only like the super at 10 cents a pop. Until that gets to NYRA, I'm not going to be playing it. The exacta box and part wheel is still my primary bet, especially at a time like this, when we're transitioning from winter to spring tracks. I don't like to go back to the win bet until I understand the track bias, unless I absolutely loathe a favorite. I cashed a $60 ticket ($15 wagered) on a HollyPark race yesterday, because I hated the favorite, who was stretching from 6f to 1 & 1/16ths, while P-Val was on a guy who had won recently at the distance, and I had no idea if any of the others would lift a hoof. I think that's very likely, or he gets the lead after a 21 and 3 first quarter and dies at the sixteenth pole. Thanks. He's so ultra consistent, I knew he'd be on the board, especially at Belmont. I still think the two horses that followed him (Swingforthefences and Value Plus) are going to turn out to be better handicap horses, so I keyed him in the triple. I haven't figured out how to manage my Derby bankroll yet either. But with 8 of my 9 Future Wager horses making it to the starting gate, there's a good possibility I sit on this and hope my biggest payoffs (Wilko or High Fly) come in. I'd say you still need to identify a live longshot. But amen on the reward part.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail My live longshot is Coin Silver. He showed a new dimension in the Lex, and he would have won by more had he found room on the turn and not had to steady. Still, he showed a nice turn of foot and seemed to win easily and effortlessly indicating he didn't leave it on the track. He seems to be improving rapidly and he fits on all my angles except the triple digit Beyer, but his 99 is close enough. If he can avoid getting squeezed on the first turn he should enjoy a nice ground-saving trip, at which point it will just be a matter of whether or not he'll have the same turn of foot at 1 1/4. He's definitely bred for it... I looked at the entries for the pick 4 races leading up to the Derby. Without having looked at the form, it appears that Madcap Escapade is a single in the Humana. I like about 5 horses in the Woodford Reserve, so I just need to find two or three horses in that turf race for F&M's (can't think of the name) to start it off and I can keep the ticket under $100. Hopefully I can find an alternative to Ticker Tape in that first leg, otherwise with Madcap expected to be 3/5 in the second leg I can envision a disappointing pick 4 payout even if BR gets beat. The key will be that first leg, and getting at least a 5-1 shot home. Or at the very least beating Ticker Tape... any thoughts on that race? Who do you like in the Oaks tomorrow? I want to play Summerly, as she broke poorly in the Ashland and then the rider had to sit down in the saddle briefly on the first turn. Throwing that race out she looks very good, and I doubt Sis City wants to duel with her. My only worry is Rugula. I watched a couple of her races on replay, and she looks like the type that will just be sent hard at 50-1 under Greta Kuntzweiler and blow any chance Summerly had of wiring the field. However, Rugula's fractions are usually around 48-ish, and I have no doubt Summerly can run a 47 and change well within herself, but I just don't trust Rugula to run her normal first quarter. Incidentally, that's one of the things that's always bugged me: a horse with no chance on paper (and not overtly acting as a rabbit) seemingly hell bent on dueling the leader into submission rather than actually trying to win the race. I'd like to see Bailey send for the first 100 yards to discourage Rugula and Kuntzweiler from even thinking about dueling. If that happens, and the track is as fast as they're saying it will be tomorrow, I'll have a great shot at cashing my Summerly - Sis City straight exacta. It will all come down to the break...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail for some reason i dont like this thread....mmm...maybe it is because i work in a Racabook and i have to work next saturday for 13 rushed hours....welll...that's my life...good luck for the bettors of the Derby!
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I love Coin Silver. It's a shame that Anees is no longer with us, as he would have been a major stamina influence in my opinion. My only worry is that he may be a wet track specialist. I haven't decided if I'm going to use him or Flower Alley as my live longshot... that is, in addition to Wilko. I don't know the runners in that race, but I always like Mott/Bailey on the grass. Don't worry about the prices on Derby day, also. Every inexperienced player in the world is out there on Saturday, and 1/3 of the on-track handle is drunk. I fully expect 7 children to be conceived on the infield on Saturday. Summerly is everyone's sexy pick for this race. I don't know if I buy into her, to be honest. I'm not sure she likes crowds (see Greater Good) and this may spook her. My play Friday will be win bets on In The Gold and Runway Model and exactas with Sis City over In The Gold and Runway Model.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I hate having the sexy pick. I decided when they were on the backstretch of the Ashland that I was going to play Summerly in the Oaks at overlaid odds. It's like when I left the theater after watching Pulp Fiction or Run, Lola, Run. I saw them early in their runs and couldn't stop talking about them to friends who hadn't seen them, but eventually the hype surpassed the actual quality of the movies. Oh well... If Rugula sends then I like your horses. Interesting opinion on Summerly possibly not liking crowds. She ran on a big weekend at Churchill last fall and faded to 3rd. That's likely neither here nor there, but if she liked the surface then maybe she just hated the big crowd, because she rattled off three in a row after that race and before the Ashland fiasco... Mott and Bailey have Sand Springs in the 7th at CD on Saturday. She's second choice on the M/L behind Ticker Tape, but Mott and Bailey are like Baze and Hollendorfer in NorCal. You never really get a fair price on them...
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail On the closing day of the 2nd Future pool, I got 5-1 on a Baze/Hollendorfer turfer. I bet to win with both hands and scored a $120 payoff. Again, remember the dumb money factor on Derby Day. Even if most casual players only bet the one race at an OTB, there's a lot of dumb money passed out in the infield and sitting at tracks across America on that day.
2005 Kentucky Oaks (G1) http://www.drf.com/row/pps/05kyoaks.pdf A more in-depth look at the Kentucky Oaks. Scratch the 2, Dance Away Capote, and the 7, Aspen Tree. Dance Away Capote has a fever and Aspen Tree ran 5th today in the LaTroienne. Say this with me... Churchill Downs is not Keeneland. Repeat until it sinks in. Ashland Stakes winners generally do not win the Oaks. Sis City (4) is a big favorite here because she met and beat many of these horses in the Ashland, but take a look. It's only 3 points better than the rest of this field on top Beyer, and does she have another lifetime best in her? Sis City is likely to go to the front, and Summerly (5) and Rugula (6) are going to go with her. Summerly was bumped at the start in her last race, and has been working tremendously this week. I'm still not sure that she likes crowds and Oaks Day may intimidate her, but I always hate it when horses with similar running styles have consecutive posts, and with three speedballs in succession, I hate this draw. Let's assume one of these won't fire by the time they round the far turn. Even then, this will likely be a speed duel, and I want a closer. Runway Model (1) has had an awkward work this week, but I can't ignore the big run she had against the bias in the Ashland, and she's my pick, but I'm also going to use the other two closers, In The Gold (3) and Memorette (8) as a part wheel over the 4,5, and 6 for a total play of $18. The 9, Gallant Secret is a throw out and I wouldn't even consider her for the super.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Before I forget... Runway Model is the only horse in the Oaks field with a win at Churchill-- in fact she has two, for those of you who love horses for courses.
7May05 CD 10th: Kentucky Derby 131 (G1) http://www.drf.com/row/pps/05kyderby.pdf We started talking about this race back on January 23rd. Only two of the eight horses mentioned in the original post are here. In fact, only half the field even got a mention on the first page of this thread. This is the most difficult race to handicap in racing on dirt. I consider it a huge thing to have even gotten 8 of my 9 Future Wager picks to Louisville. That's right: 40% of the starters can cash a ticket for me, and even if the worst of them comes home, I'll show a profit on the wager. That said, TVG was talking about a guy today who, using Vegas future books, will cash at a big profit if any starter except Going Wild crosses the wire first. He's safe: Going Wild (19) is simply the worst horse in this entire field. I've been predicting all week that the horse may never win another race again. When he faded in the Coolmore Lexington, it marked an April where he'd been beaten by a combined 57 1/2 lengths in 2 starts. If that isn't a horse whose will to win has been completely and totally smashed for all time, I've never seen it before. The Lewises would be well advised to stand him at stud now before he loses all value. Other immediate throwouts: Buzzards Bay (20) won a paceless Santa Anita Derby and that is the complete opposite of this race. He lacks the pedigree and the speed figures and he's been exiled to somewhere in Fayette County as far as the starting gate is concerned. Sort It Out (1) has a sprinter's pedigree, is pinned on the rail, and hasn't lifted a hoof since he left Allen Iwinski's barn. He couldn't even beat listed stakes company at 1 and 1/8. I'm convinced Baffert doesn't even really know this horse based on some of his comments about his pedigree. Spanish Chestnut (13) is here for one reason-- to set the pace. Joe Bravo is on a suicide mission to set the table for Bandini, who is also owned by Michael Tabor. Strangely enough, he has the highest Tomlinson distance ratings in this race, but that's because his sire, Horse Chestnut will brings stamina to turf horses. If Bellamy Road tires in the lane, Spanish Chestnut will win his personal Derby, but he'll never see a blanket of roses unless Bandini brings it over. Pretenders Chief among these is Greater Good (8). He's already outrun his pedigree, and has yet to show any serious speed. He'll need a 20 point Beyer jump to hit par for the Derby, but the real reason I hate this horse to no end is the fact he left his Arkansas Derby in the paddock when he got spooked by a crowd of 70K. How do you think he'll do when he's faced with 140,000 crammed into Churchill? I'm guessing you'll be able to identify this ridgeling in the post parade by the kidney sweat dripping off of him. I want to like Andromeda's Hero (2), I really do. He's got the Fusaichi Pegasus pedigree, but he and Spanish Chestnut share the lowest Beyer tops in this race. He has yet to beat any horses of consequence, and a first-time Derby rider is the final nail in the coffin for this Zito horse. If you really must use him, he might find his way into the superfecta. I doubt he's even getting into the trifecta. Flower Alley (7) is another one who simply doesn't have the speed to keep up. Remember that his signature win in the Lane's End came about largely because Norberto Arroyo sent Mr. Sword far too early in the race. The horse is improving somewhat, but the preps are too light and the pedigree doesn't make me take notice, despite sharing a sire with Funny Cide. I'm not encouraged by the addition of blinkers, as 20 horse fields are the wrong time to foist something new on a horse. Greeley's Galaxy (9)may be here, and he may be helping to boost the purse from $2M to $2.4M, but he certainly isn't ready. Last week, Greeley's Galaxy worked a mile in 1.40 and 3, and was absolutely worn out at the end of the move. I just don't see that the form is here to be a factor. Closing Argument (18) is another which has not impressed in the works, and I'm not sure how sound this horse actually is. I expect some improvement in the second start off the layoff, but I don't think he's ready, particularly for 10 furlongs. Giacomo (10) is still eligible for a NX1 allowance. He's hung in the lane a couple of times now against relatively poor fields, and was beaten for the place in the Sham by a maiden. As a Holy Bull colt, he's bred for middle distances. So far we've eliminated half the field. Let's start looking at horses who could win, or at least finish in the money. Live Longshots Coin Silver (5) has a great pedigree for this distance, and he's rounding into form at the right time. He came from off the pace at Keeneland, albeit in the mud. He did all this with a horror of a start, hitting the gate and being bumped by another horse off the break. There's reason for this horse to improve. Personally, I'm probably still going to discard him. Don't Get Mad (17) has one obvious thing working against him: He raced last Saturday. He is one of the few runners here with a win over the track here, however, and has actually won all three of his starts at CD. He's part of Stephen Got Even's first crop of runners, and it's unclear if that group is going to find their limit at middle distances or not, but it is clear that his runners tend to be late developers. (I had that reiterated to me Thursday afternoon when Stephen Got Lucky routed an allowance field at 11 to 1 and I was left out in the cold.) Still, this horse looks like he will be a one-turn specialist, suited to one-turn miles and maybe the one-turn races up to 1 & 1/8 at Belmont. High Limit (6) has trained as impressively as any horse at Churchill over the last two weeks. He really is ready to race. His Blue Grass wasn't horrible, finishing 6 lengths behind Bandini, as Bobby Frankel was trying to get the horse to rate (relax behind other horses on the lead). Sharing the same sire as 2001 winner Monarchos, you would believe he has the distance in him, but there's not the same class on the female side of the family. I'm not a big fan of his Louisiana Derby victory, as it was aided by the track bias and he showed a lack of professionalism when he tried to jump a tire track left by the starting gate in the stretch. I really like Wilko (14). This horse is a half brother to Breeders Cup Classic winner Ghostzapper and his sire also won the BC Classic. He's making the third start of a form cycle, and he's game every time he comes out, even on a cracked hoof. I don't think this horse has shown his best race yet, and he wants more ground. If Frankie Dettori was on board here, I'd be betting him to win and keying him in the triple. As it is, I'll have to be creative, and if I play Pick 3's or Pick 4's, I'm not leaving him out. Contenders Bellamy Road (16) heads this list, but the shape of this race plays against him. The only way I see Bellamy Road winning this race is if he proves to be speed of the speed, and beats Spanish Chestnut to the first turn, and goes gate to wire. If you see that the opening half mile is faster than 47 seconds, you can be pretty sure that the pace is going to fall apart here. I'll safeguard against it in my exacta/trifecta wagering, but I expect Bellamy Road to back up badly in the final furlong on Saturday, and finish off the board. Sun King (3) is the horse Nick Zito has referred to most of the year as the "captain of my team." He had a bad trip in the Blue Grass, going 7-8 wide into the stretch run. He has one of America's best jockeys in Edgar Prado. He's also a professional racehorse who knows how to look other horses in the eye and skip away from them. He's by Charismatic and he has the distance in him. Afleet Alex (12) is the horse that scares me most. I do not have him covered, and I'm sure that my wagers this weekend will take that into consideration. Still, I'm bothered by his pedigree. Some say that his dam will give him the foundation for anything up to a mile and a half, but I was taught that distance and surface come from the sire, and class comes from the dam. I've never been fond of the group that Alex ran against in Arkansas-- it simply isn't very good, and you'll note that none of my other contenders or longshots went the Oaklawn route. He's got the Beyers, yes, and he's got the bankroll. But he has one of the most inexperienced jockeys in the whole field, and Jeremy Rose gave the colt a horrible ride in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Rumors are still circulating that Tim Ritchey tried to find another rider for the mount, but no more experienced rider was available. High Fly (11) is the forgotten horse. All he's done is win 5 of his 6 starts, and the one loss was at 1 & 1/8 at Gulfstream, breaking from the 8th post-- where post positions 1 and 2 win over 50% of the races at that distance on dirt. The Beyers are there, and he's raced more furlongs this calendar year than any other horse in this race. The pedigree is a little suspect, as the distance is there, but mainly if you consider turf background. He's a real professional, however, and he has a lot of fight and determination in him, as even his loss in the Holy Bull underlines. Jerry Bailey gets the call. Noble Causeway (4) was last seen gamely cutting into High Fly's lead in the Florida Derby, when the wire flashed by. This horse might have the single best pedigree for the distance in this race. He's looked sharp in his workouts and there's a lot of buzz over this horse right now. I think he's improving steadily and is poised to toss in the best race of his life on Saturday. Furthermore, Gary Stevens has been on fire ever since he stepped off the plane in Kentucky, maintaining his form through the switch from Keeneland to Churchill, and now he's going to move out to Ky. permanently. The Pick Bandini (15) has done everything you've asked of him. He beat the best field assembled this year in the Blue Grass, and he did it from off the pace, against the track bias. He's got stellar breeding, and his connections include the reigning Eclipse winning jockey (John Velazquez) and trainer (Todd Pletcher). He's won 3 of his 4 starts this year, and he cut deeper into High Fly's lead in the Fountain of Youth than Noble Causeway did in the Florida Derby, which he was unable to run in due to illness. *** The $30 play: $10 win on Bandini, $2 Exactas with the 4 and 12 over the 3, 11, 14, 16 and 15 ($20). Alternatively, I would consider playing the exacta with 4, 12 and 15 over 3, 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16 ($36) and skipping the win bet. I'm not taking a stab at the trifecta if I have less than a $120 bankroll (unless I played the trifecta in $1 increments, which would knock it down to $60), since I believe that the size of the payoffs will make it worth it. If I were to go for it, I think I would key High Fly in my calculations, since I believe he will hit the board in most scenarios. It would take 3 tickets: Ticket A: 11 with 3, 4, 12, 15, 16 with 3, 4, 12, 15, 16 (20 combinations) Ticket B: 3, 4, 12, 15, 16 with 11 with 3, 4, 12, 15, 16 (20 combinations) Ticket C: 3, 4, 12, 15, 16 with 3, 4, 12, 15, 16 with 11 (20 combinations) If you really have money to throw around, you could key a horse in the super instead. If you did it with 5 other horses as shown above, you would be looking at 60 combinations per ticket, or $240 dollars, as a Ticket D would be required.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail The simple version: The pick: Bandini Second Choice: Noble Causeway Under the Radar contender: High Fly Live Longshot: Wilko *** Good luck!
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Most horse players don't put one trifecta ticket together, but play a group of them. At the bottom of the long analysis, I put together a $60 ticket that I hope will return somewhere in the $150-3000 range, depending on who wins. The low end is based on Bellamy Road coming home, and I don't think that happens. If he finishes off the board, and someone other than Afleet Alex or Bandini wins, the IRS will be withholding a cut of your $1500+ in winnings. If you're going to go for the suicide route and play just one ticket, you're hoping for a miracle, frankly. So start praying now if you're going to bet this one: Bandini with High Fly with Wilko.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Those of you wanting to play the publichandicapper.com game this season have a matter of hours left to register-- You must select your picks for the Kentucky Oaks by 1 hour before post time today. You can pick the Oaks and leave the three races on tomorrow's card for later if you need to. And don't forget to PM me your Publichandicapper.com screen name if you want to be in our custom group. Oaks and Derby PP's are linked in their respective analysis posts.