Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail i read some of these posts and they sound like gibberish to me. i know nothing of horse racing
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail This week, on the Trail, we've got three Derby preps as things get down to the elimination stage and graded stakes earnings take precedence. (In the event of more than 20 starters being named to the Kentucky Derby, only the top 20 in Graded Stakes earnings will go to the post.) Two of the three races are part of the NTRA national Pick 3, so I'll give you my thoughts for the Carter Handicap in the Sprint Division as well. Out west, however, the best race of the day is the G1 Santa Anita Derby, where Sweet Catomine, the filly, has been installed as a 7-5 favorite. The race looks relatively devoid of pace, as the best horses in the race, Sweet Catomine, Don't Get Mad and Wilko are dead closers. The only horse with a recent move to the front early is #1, Allright, who has ridiculously low Beyers and only went to the front on the lawn, and has never done that on dirt. My pick here is the #2, Giacomo, who is also a sustained pace runner, but has enough early foot to be close when they turn for home. *** The NTRA Pick 3 starts off with the G1 Carter Handicap for older sprinters. The two best Beyers of the year have been recorded by the two outside horses, Don Six (5) and Forest Danger (6), while the dangerous Medallist (4) sits inside them. Throw in the 3, Mass Media, and you've got one of the deepest Sprint fields you'll find outside of the BC Sprint at Belmont later this year. For the Pick 3, I'd cover the 3 outside horses, Medallist, Don Six and Forest Danger. I'm a big Don Six fan, but I'm leaning towards Forest Danger for the win here. Forest Danger is 2 for 2 at this distance, while Don Six wants 6 furlongs, not 7. He's lightly raced and is 4 of 5 lifetime. I'd stay out of the exacta here, because of the nature of the talent in this race. There may be enough to burn the 4 major horses out, and then I'll be out of the Pick 3 in the first leg. *** Next race in the sequence is the G1 Wood Memorial, which is one of the weakest Grade 1's I've ever seen. Lots of early pace here, especially supplied by the two new shooters, Going Wild (5) and Bellamy Road (3). The closers here are weak bunch, as demonstrated by the tortoise like final fraction of the Gotham, where most of these also ran. I'm inclined to pick Scrappy T (1), who's coming off an 8 week freshening. For the Pick 3, I'm going 4 deep, with the 1, 3, and 5 joined by the (8) Naughty New Yorker, who draws a favorable post and had a rough trip in the Gotham. *** Finally, the Illinois Derby makes the Wood look like the Breeders Cup. Most of this field is still eligible for an N1X allowance, and I wouldn't consider any of them legitimate contenders for the Roses next month. Best of a bad bunch is Monarch Lane (2), who has only 2 races under his belt, but placed 3rd in an entry level allowance last out. The only reason I mention that is that the horses who ran past him were only Sun King and Survivalist, the winners of the Tampa Bay Derby and the Gotham Stakes. I think it's going to be a key race, and I'm going with the 2 to win. I'm covering the 9, Kansas City Boy, and the 3, Magna Graduate as well. Kansas City Boy had a bad La Derby, but was very good in the Holy Bull, and Magna Graduate won the Battaglia at Turfway Park two races back. So, I'm going 3 deep in the outer legs, 4 deep in the Wood, for a $36 dollar ticket. That's a lot more than I usually play in the Pick 3, but I think that there's a lot of potential to get a price today. *** In other races, I like Letgomyecho (5) in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland today, and I like Grand Reward (4), who's lone speed in the Oaklawn Handicap.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Wow. That's all I can say right now, after watching Bellamy Road's performance in the Wood a second time. The first time I watched it was down by the paddock at the Big A, and we waited forever for the rest of the horses to come home after George Steinbrenner's colt crossed the wire. I'm looking forward to picking up the Racing Form tomorrow just to see what the Beyer Speed Figure for Bellamy Road was, as he equalled the track record for 1 & 1/8 miles on a day when the track was playing lightning fast. I'm guessing he'll have superceded the unofficial 110 (by Andy Beyer's personal records) that Blues And Royals recorded in the UAE Derby. The group of horses he ran against was not that good, but quite simply, if he can run that race a second time on May 7th, he'll be led away wearing a blanket of roses. Bellamy Road was bet down to $3.30-1 odds in the final Future Wager pool, which, of course is a little excessive. If one of the big boys in the Blue Grass on Saturday runs a big race, you may be able to do better on Bellamy Road on Derby Day. That said, I looked over his past performances again today, and I liked what I saw more and more. The horse has now run four times in 2005, which is a better resume than most. Wilko, for instance, has only run twice, although both were in top level races. Rockport Harbor has made one start and is now being pushed back to the Coolmore Lexington Stakes two weeks before Derby Day due to his problems. The Godolphin colt, Blues and Royals made just one start over the last 6 months and will have a six week layoff before the Derby. Makes the Steinbrenner colt look better every moment. *** Greeley's Galaxy won the Illinois Derby by 9 1/2 lengths as well, over an unimpressive group of allowance horses, but the colt's owners have indicated all the same that they will pony up the late supplemental fee of $200K just to run in the Derby. Seems like a lot to pay for little chance of winning the $1.2 M first prize, but some people just want to be there, I guess. *** The long-awaited look at Sweet Catomine against the boys was a real washout, with owner Marty Wygod indicating after the race that she bled after a workout earlier this week and also went into heat before running a lackluster fifth as the odds-on favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. The Jeff Mullins-trained Buzzards Bay (30-1) pressed the pace early, got in front on the backstretch and held on under a drive from General John B (64-1). Wilko was up late, but could not overhaul the leaders, although with an extra furlong, he might have won, which is an important consideration. Giacomo ran fourth, but was well beaten. This is the third year in a row that Mullins has trained the SA Derby winner. *** With all this in mind, I placed two $10 wagers on the final future wagers pool, covering Sun King (10.20-1), who runs next week in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, and Wilko (20.70-1), who I felt looked considerably sharper under Frankie Dettori, who piloted him home in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. While I tried to play more with an eye to winning over value compared to my other future wagers, I could not conscience a stab at Bellamy Road at those low odds. Basically, my hopes rest on 5 major shooters in the Derby, High Fly (who I covered in the earlier two rounds), Bandini and Noble Causeway (2nd round) and these two horses. I'll collect $76.50 if Bandini comes in, $99.50 if it's Noble Causeway, $160.40 in High Fly, $112 on Sun King, and $217 on Wilko. Should Giacomo or Closing Argument, my two remaining secondary shooters, come home, I'll pick up $52 and $108.20, respectively. In other words, here's to Wilko!
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Since I've had a couple of outside requests for the Arkansas Derby, I'm gonna get this one up well in advance. We're getting to the three last preps for the Derby, and it's now a scramble for the last graded stakes earnings slots in the Run For the Roses. (Note that if 20+ horses do declare for the Derby, Greeley's Galaxy and his $200K supplemental fee are screwed because earnings for late supplemental nominees cannot take precedence over regular nominees. I'm not sure if that also affects Blues and Royals, who supplemented in the first round.) This week will feature the Arky Derby and also the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The Blue Grass is a considerably stronger race, and has the most eventual Derby Champions to come out of it. Next week will be the Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland, and I cannot guarantee that I will be able to handicap it for you, as I'm flying out to Lexington for the race on Friday of next week. *** The Arkansas Derby has a dangerous shape. To be specific, it's stacked with closers... and one early speed horse. A lot of big names here: Greater Good will be the favorite, Afleet Alex was the Ky Derby favorite for weeks until his clunker in the Rebel, and Flower Alley won the Lane's End recently. But the horse that jumps out at me is Canteen (3). The Fusaichi Pegasus colt is still improving, and is the only one in this group that shows a desire to go to the front early. He's bred to get the distance, which is more than I can say for any of the three we just mentioned. I think he's going to get brave and wire this field, so I'm playing him as the $2 win ticket. There's one other horse who's got the breeding for this distance, and he's trained by America's hottest trainer of 3 year olds. I certainly can't argue with you if you play Andromeda's Hero (2), who attempts to join 4 other colts from Nick Zito's barn in Louisville. The price should be considerably shorter, obviously. I'm going to box the two of these in the exacta, and if it comes up wet on Saturday, I'll add #5, Flower Alley to make a 3 horse exacta box.
3/16: Keeneland 9th: Toyota Blue Grass Stakes-G1 This is one of the more interesting Derby Preps. Seven tough horses here, and all of them have the potential to win this one. There's also a lot of early speed signed on here, with Spanish Chestnut, Consolidator, and High Limit likely to go to the front from the beginning. Closing Argument and Sun King are likely to sit just off the pace, and Mr. Sword and Bandini will be coming up late. The Blue Grass is likely to be held under optimal conditions, so you should be forgiving about the mud that Spanish Chestnut (3), for one, encountered, as you should also be forgiving about the early move that cost Mr. Sword (1) the win in the Lane's End, as he's gotten a jockey upgrade to Jerry Bailey. The question, inevitably in the last Derby preps, is simple, however: Who can get the distance? Despite being a little light in the breeding, Closing Argument (2) has already answered that question in the affirmative, winning the 1 & 1/8 mile Holy Bull. The Fusaichi Pegasus colt, Bandini (7), sports the highest Tomlinson numbers for distance by a wide margin. The Nick Zito trainee, Sun King (6), has Derby winner Charismatic for a sire. Finally, High Limit's sire has already thrown one Kentucky Derby winner, Monarchos. I'm a little frightened away from High Limit(5). The colt wired the field in the Louisiana Derby, but he was lone speed on a track heavily biased towards early speed. Couple that with an obviously green stretch run-- despite wearing a shadow roll, he still got spooked and jumped a set of tread tracks in the dirt-- plus what will probably be a hot pace, and I'm not liking this one. Consolidator (4) also was the beneficiary of a sealed track that was a conveyor belt for front-runners in his last race. Again, I expect him to burn out in the speed duel. Spanish Chestnut is cheap speed. He's not put up convincing Beyers, nor has he shown any desire to rate. The pedigree's light, and I'll pass Mr. Sword has only beaten inferior horses and I'm not convinced he wants this distance. I see him as more of a miler or mile and a sixteenth horse. I'm going to exacta and trifecta box the last three horses, Closing Argument, Sun King and Bandini. They're the three most professional horses in this group, and I expect all of them to rate behind other horses and handle the distance. I expect this trio to skip past the leaders at the 3/16th pole and not look back, but I expect Bandini to be in front. Closing Argument hasn't raced since February and I think he'll need a race, while Sun King has the earnings that this race is more for the prep than for a needed win. He's going to Louisville one way or the other. Bandini needs a graded stakes win or place to secure his spot at Churchill Downs, so Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez are going to send him hard. He's shown in his last race, he desperately wants the extra ground, and I think he gets the win here. To recap, Bandini to win, Exacta and Trifecta boxes featuring Closing Argument, Bandini and Sun King.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail The dance card is nearly full for the Kentucky Derby now. Nick Zito will send Bellamy Road, the favorite, as well as Florida Derby winner High Fly, Tampa Bay Derby winner Sun King and Noble Causeway. Afleet Alex has re-established his credentials with a 108 Beyer, outkicking the field in the last eighth in the Arkansas Derby. Bandini skipped away from a much tougher field in the Blue Grass, posting a 103 Andy. Buzzards Bay will go, but Blues and Royals, the Godolphin horse, is ill and will stay home. Consolidator and Wilko will also make the trip from California. High Limit and Flower Alley are going, as is the Wood Memorial runner-up, Survivalist. Greeley's Galaxy would like to go, but requires less than 20 other nominated horses to step up. Welcome to the Last Chance Saloon, better known as the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2). D. Wayne Lukas wants to send Going Wild, but he'll need to generate some earnings this weekend to secure a spot. Lucas may also send Skye'n Thunder,who has only a maiden win to show for three starts. Rockport Harbor comes to Keeneland for a different reason: the earnings are there, but the colt has faced one problem after another and needs a race to show the fitness needed for a run at the Roses, or he'll be held back until the Preakness, closer to home. Storm Surge hasn't won in a while, but he's got the bankroll. Steve Asmussen sends Actxecutive, on the outside looking in, sitting on the 21st spot in the earnings chart. Bob Baffert brings Sort It Out, who can only go with a win, as none of his earnings have come in a graded stakes. Other nominees to the Coolmore Lexington who are more unlikely to show include Borderland Derby winner Southern Africa, the dangerous maiden Papi Chullo, Vicarage, Byanosejoe and Proud Accolade.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Nowadays the Derby Trial has absolutely nothing to do with who will run in the Derby itself, but I find that it often makes for an interesting wagering proposition, especially when compared to trying to make sense out of the cavalry charge that the Derby generally is. Big Top Cat doesn't look like he wants a route. Much better race last time out, but Lukas has to be pretty disappointed with how this one has run, even if the late splits in the Bay Shore were awfully quick. Maybe good enough to keep underneath in exotics, but nothing more. Miracle Man could pose a problem. He's yet to lose, he's coming off a bullet work, and his running style fits this race well. I see him stalking the pace and trying to go by them on the turn; it'll be interesting to see if he has it. My money says no, but I recognize the risk I take in throwing him out. Vicarage ran a nice race in the La Derby, and has an excuse in the Florida Derby, as hitting the gate with that group knocked him out as the race started. No doubt he's running against an lighter group today, and he looks to stalk. Could be the play at the right price. We know Ultimate wants the lead, but I question whether he can wire this group after being unable to win in either of his two starts since breaking his maiden. Tough call. Santana Strings has an excuse in his last, yet he still ran a 99 and almost got there to win. Did that last race take everything out of him and today he bounces, or is the 99 close to his true form, and we say that with the extra distance he gets there and wins it today? This horse is a little bit of an enigma. Tough spot for Gallardo. Took him six tries to win his maiden, didn't do it in overly impressive fashion, and I think he's outclassed here today. Crimson Stag struggles once he leaves Louisiana state-bred company. He has excuses in his last, which was a pretty quick race. He looks to have improved some, but not enough for my money. Underneath if at all. Don't Get Mad will take a lot of money. This is a considerably easier spot for him than his last couple, but he needs the pace scenario to be just right. Who's the speed in this race? Big Top Cat, Miracle Man, Ultimate? Ultimate looks to be a little bit quicker than the other two, but can he carry the lead the entire way? We know Don't Get Mad will be coming at the end, and so might Santana Strings. And Vicarage cannot be taken lightly. I'd want to see the board before I play this. If Don't Get Mad takes substantial money I'd play Vicarage by himself and with Ultimate and Miracle Man. If Vicarage is chalk, I lay off it, not liking the value. And you, Ian?
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Just got back from a very wet Keeneland, which kicked my butt on Saturday and again on Wednesday. I only played the first today, hitting the triple for $111 off a $12 investment, so I'm getting the feel of playing the place when it's wet. Tomorrow however, is opening day at Churchill, and I'm assuming we're looking at an off track there as well, as the track was sloppy for morning works. The Derby Trial is the featured race, but having lost its graded status, it's not really going to figure in the Derby picture as General John B was forced to pull out of the Derby today, and that means Going Wild is in, which accounts for all runners with graded stakes earnings. The end result is that Don't Get Mad, who's entered here, is almost certain to be pulled from consideration, allowing his stablemate Greeley's Galaxy to be supplemented to the Derby. First off, I'm going to throw out Gallardo (6) and Crimson Stag (7). Gallardo's clearly out of his league and since this isn't turf, I don't like Brice Blanc getting the call. Furthermore, he's not bred to like it wet. Crimson Stag is fine beating up Louisiana statebreds, but Albarado's quick to jump elsewhere. I expect Ultimate (4) to go to the front, and Big Top Cat and Miracle Man will go with him, probably Crimson Stag as well. Ultimate doesn't thrill me, not being able to win with a clear lead against a weak field in the John Battaglia, and his pedigree says Sprinter to me. Miracle Man (2) still hasn't faced anyone yet, but with Saint Ballado as his grandsire, he's got a miler's pedigree. That said, Yankee Victor, his sire, was not a great mudder, and I'm going to play him underneath in exotics. Big Top Cat (1), however, is a legitimate contender. He gave Lost In The Fog the toughest race he's had yet before fading late in the Bay Shore, on a track that was a conveyor belt for early speed. He may get the lead outright here, and if he does, he'll be hard to catch, especially with the best Tomlinson wet numbers in the field. Lukas thinks highly of this one and having seen him in person, I don't blame him. I'm not a big believer in Vicarage(3). I expect him to be the favorite off the class drop, but my concern is this: In quality company, Vicarage has shown no inclination to pass other horses. Vicar, his sire, was also a horse who lost something in the mud as well. That said, a mile, mile and a sixteenth is what Vicar runners are expected to get, and with Dixieland Band for a damsire, that's not a bad distance pedigree either. I'm still going to keep him underneath. Santana Strings (5) has kept some awful good company. He's been beaten by Lost In The Fog as well, Storm Surge, and Smoke Smoke Smoke, who's previous start was a loss to Afleet Alex. I agree that he looked good in his last start as well, and I think he's still developing. Not sure that he has the kick to get up for the win here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the money. Previous readers know I like Don't Get Mad (8) a lot. This horse has a monster closing kick, and I'm willing to throw out his Santa Anita Derby, which was the toughest field any of these horses have faced, far better than the Florida Derby. He ran well in the San Felipe as well, considering that the sealed track was playing extremely fast and nothing but early speed won all day that time out. With a Stephen Got Even pedigree, he's going to be full of run in the slop, and middle distances suit him well. He's the best horse in this field, and I think the pace scenario suits him. If you're playing exactas, I'd suggest boxing him with Big Top Cat, but if you can play the trifecta, I'd want to spread a little more, 1,8 with 1,5,8 with 1,2,3,5,8 ($24 on a $2 wager). Throw in the 3 on the last line on a $1 Super for a $36 ticket.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I got the form so I'll look at the Derby Trial later. The only horse I could ever remember than won the Derby Trial was Houston. It's become a local stake. For the Derby, let's post our picks on (or just before) race day. I'm thinking whoever wants gets $20 mythical dollars to bet any way he/she pleases. What do you guys/girls think?
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I'd prefer that it be a $30 limit, since that's the number I've used for most of the year. Allows you a stab at a decent triple or even a super if you can budget it right. Incidentally, Churchill has hinted that after the Derby, they're going to start offering the dime superfecta. Hollypark added it for this meet as well.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail http://kyderby.breezecentral.com/p55002547/ A look at the Derby contenders and Derby Trial analysis from Dave Gutfreund courtesy of CDSN.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Just a note... Publichandicapper.com offers 3 spots in the DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Contest in the "meet" that starts next week with the Derby. It's a free contest in a straight $2 win format, no payoffs in excess of 30-1. You pick 4 races each week, and they have giveaways for weekly best performances as well. PM me your screen name for it, and I'll put together a custom group.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail 1. Fine by me. I don't know how many lurkers there are to the thread who'd want to play along. If there were some newcomers, I didn't want to throw things like trifecta wheels and the like at them. 2. Yes, I read that in today's form about the dime superfecta. I'm wondering if Arlington will be on board with that.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Horseplayer Magazine keeps stats on the payoffs of dime superfectas. (http://www.horseplayerdaily.com/stats/dime/) Their page for the dime super lists Arlington as one of the parks that will be offering it, which is not a surprise, considering that corporate partners HollyPark and Churchill Downs are going to be on board. I saw an interview with the president of the Keeneland Association yesterday where he talked about a dramatic increase in their handle from the super pools. It has a certain appeal when you consider that you can get a four horse box for $2.40, and my experience is that the payoffs are fairly comparable to the exacta. Since you can only play it when 8 betting interests are named and six actually start, you only get a handful of opportunities on most cards. You'll have a better opportunity to hit it for a reasonable amount if you can identify a key horse to win and a board horse that has to be in the mix. Let's say the 1 is your key, and the 2 is your board horse, but you like 3 other horses. You would need three tickets in this scenario: A:1 with 2 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5= $0.60 B:1 with 3,4,5 with 2 with 3,4,5= $0.60 C:1 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 with 2= $0.60 This allows you to get in for $1.80 with 5 horses, and you only need to have reasonable confidence in 2 of them. To add an additional horse (which had better be a significant longshot considering the additional cost), your cost doubles per ticket, which is a $3.60 ticket. Adding an 2nd extra horse, however, brings each ticket up to $2, or $6 total. Still pretty reasonable, considering a 5 horse box costs $12 and a six horse box costs $36. This bet doesn't offer much value if the top horse is odds-on, and the second favorite comes in in the two hole, so try and avoid the super when you think the pace scenario favors that outcome. The other thing about supers is you really have to think hard about who has no hope of winning the race, but will be among the trailing pack. I've had a few of these blown up by horses that were cheap speed, but still held on to the 4th spot. There's nothing more frustrating then seeing a 5/2 come in with two mid prices underneath, and some horse you thought was Alpo eke out the last spot over the second favorite.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I don't expect to touch this bet until maybe late summer. I'd like to get a hold where I'm getting the exacta rather frequently, move up to the tri, then the superfecta. When I was more into handicapping, I was finding often I was having the horses in my three horse box finish in the top 5, but also a horse I hadn't considered would jump up and finish 1st or 2nd, killing my ticket. Now that I'm starting from scratch again, I kinda want to crawl before I walk, so to speak. As for the Derby Trial, I like the fact that Don't Get Mad usually seems to have something left in the stretch run as distances 7f and longer. I'd probably rate him on top.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail Ian, well done with Don't Get Mad. It's a shame Gallardo was able to hold second, but a Don't Get Mad-Vicarage exacta wasn't going to pay much anyway. Did you play the race? DRF was claiming that Don't Get Mad's connections are trying to get him in the Derby. If he does get in, I'll be rooting like hell for him to win (or at least run well) to counter some of this foolishness of not racing horses unless they haven't so much as coughed in the last two weeks, worked three bullets, and the weather is 72 and sunny with no rain for the past four days.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail I didn't get a chance to play the race-- I was at my brother's birthday party instead. Unless someone else has to drop out or owner B. Wayne Hughes realizes that it's a little nuts to put up $200K at 5-1 odds on a good but not great Greeley's Galaxy in a 20 horse field... Let's face it, the Illinois Derby was a slightly above average NX1 allowance. Believe me, I hope Don't Get Mad is in there-- it would mean that 8 of the 9 horses I covered in the Future Wager pools would be in the Derby, and the one who's out is Proud Accolade, who I only had for $2. That said, I can't see Don't Get Mad getting the distance. He's a one turn specialist in my opinion, and I think 1 & 1/8 is the absolute maximum for him.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2005/contenders.pdf Past Performances for the 21 starters being considered (includes both Greeley's Galaxy and Don't Get Mad).
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail http://www.drf.com/news/article/64626.html And then there were 20. Consolidator out with a fractured sesamoid, meaning B. Wayne Hughes gets both Don't Get Mad and Greeley's Galaxy in. *** Yesterday, Bellamy Road, Noble Causeway, High Fly and Bandini were among those who worked. (You can see The Works on TVG at 11.30 AM and at 9PM nightly.) Bellamy Road put a nice time up (1.00 and 2 over 5f), but seemed a little rail-shy. High Fly (1.00 and 2 over 5f) split two work partners very nicely, but seemed to hold his head a little high during the stretch. Bandini had one of the most visually impressive works, drilling 5f in 1.00 and 3, but did not gallop out as far as the others. However, he had a brisk gallop this morning as well. Noble Causeway drilled his 5f in 59 and 4, passing his workmate in mid stretch under some urging. Flower Alley (1.00 and 2) worked in conjunction with Ashado for 5f, and the latter fell apart late. Ashado did not look good in her one race this year, and you have to wonder about how her Distaff season is going to go. Today, Coin Silver worked with Hall of Famer Angel Cordero, John Velazquez's agent, up, going 5f in 101 in tandem with Monarch Lane. Sort It Out had a bit of a wild ride, putting up some fast fractions early (11.74, 23.25, 34.63) before spinning out 4 wide on the turn and tired a bit at the end, going 4f in a credible 47 and 2. Closing Argument went the first furlong of 5 in 11.74, but lost his focus after passing his workmate and finished in 1.01 and 2. Buzzards Bay worked at Santa Anita, firing a 6f bullet in 1.11 under Mark Guidry.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail The Derby horse-by-horse Until mid-week draw, I will go here. Mighty fine thoughts and alot of loose lip trots. Bwahahahaha! Kentucky Derby contenders I have personnally won under these jockeys. Bailey Rose Prado Desormeaux Nakatani McKee Blanc Smith Orange not ride favorite. Olive really like jockeys
Pedigree time... Profiles of the Derby contenders: Make sure you take a long look at the pedigree analysis. Some things I took away from the pedigrees: Afleet Alex has speed to 1 & 1/8ths on his sire's side, but his dam is out of Hawkster, who's the world record holder at 1 & 1/2 miles on turf, and there's a lot of stamina and loads of class on the dam side. Andromeda's Hero and Bandini are both by Fusaichi Pegasus, Mr. Prospector's only Derby winner. Andromeda's Hero has turf and stamina influences through Roberto and Arts and Letters further back in his damsire's side. Bandini's Dam is by Dixieland Band, which brings lots of stamina and some turf as well, and her dam's dam is part of the Northern Dancer/Seattle Slew lines. Both should be able to get the classic distances. Bellamy Road is from Concerto (Chief's Crown) who finished 9th in the Derby, but won at 1 & 1/4 later in his career and all of his wins were around 2 turns. The Grandsire was a 3rd place Derby finisher as well. Bellamy Road's dam is the daughter of a Preakness winner, and remarkably, has no inbreeding in her last 5 generations. There's more distance than I would have assumed here, but I'm not convinced on class. Buzzards Bay has a sprinter's pedigree, with turf thrown in as well. Closing Argument is another with sprint breeding on both sides, being by Successful Appeal (Valid Appeal) out of an unraced Mr. Greeley mare. Coin Silver has one of the more interesting pedigrees, being out of the late Anees (Unbridled), with an obvious stamina pedigree. This is Anees' first 3 yo crop. He's out of a Conquistador Cielo mare, and CC won the Belmont in a romp. I saw the pedigree in Lexington and played him underneath in my triple and supers-- never thought he'd show up on top. Flower Alley's sire (Distorted Humor by Forty Niner) has already thrown one Derby winner (Funny Cide) and the grandsire was a nose short of Winning Colors in the Derby as well. Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer both appear three-deep in the dam's pedigree, but the distaff side of the family is largely minor stakes winners. I think the distance is there, but I'd like him more if it was wet. Giacomo is out of Holy Bull, who won the Travers at 1 & 1/4, but most of his runners have flourished at a mile to 1 & 1/16ths. Going Wild is by Golden Missile, who finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup Classic, and his grandsire was A.P. Indy. His dam was a sprinter, but her sire, Strawberry Road (Nijinsky) brings turf and stamina to the table. I suspect he can get the distance. Greater Good's pedigree has sprint all over it. The sire, Intidab, who now stands in NY, was a sprinter, and his sire, Phone Trick, was good to a mile. The dam was a sprinter, but the damsire, General Assembly, won the Travers and was 2nd in the Derby. I think the horse has already shown you its limit, however: 1 & 16th. Greeley's Galaxy may be in, but he's not bred for the distance-- he's got a sprinter's pedigree, and there's not that much class on the dam side. High Fly is hard to get a read on, because Atticus is still a work in progress. He won the Oaklawn Handicap in the States, but he ran in Europe as well. Atticus is by Nureyev (turf influence by Northern Dancer) out of a Secretariat mare. High Fly is by a Slewpy mare, who has been the broodmare sire to an Arc winner, so turf may be part of this horse's future. The distance should be there, and his pressing style may work well here. High Limit is by Maria's Mon, who threw 2001 Derby winner Monarchos. His dam was unraced, and his dam's dam has had a number of two-turn winners. The distance is there, but the questions surrounding High Limit have always been more about his professionalism. Noble Causeway is by Giant's Causeway, a European champion who raced only once on dirt-- a game second to Tiznow in the Breeders Cup Classic. His grandsire is Storm Cat and his sire's mare beat Serena's Song once. The mare is by Seeking the Gold, who brings a lot of fight to his runners, and won the Louisiana Super Derby at this distance, as well as placing second in the Travers and BC Classic. An obvious contender on distance and class. The NY bred Sort It Out is by Out of Place, a two-turn specialist by stamina influence Cox's Ridge. The dam side suggests turf, with Kris S. for a damsire, but should impart the stamina necessary as well. There's no link to Spanish Chestnut's pedigree, but from memory, I know that he's by South African Champion Horse Chestnut, who also threw Grade I winner Lucifer's Stone. He's already shown that he probably will not have the staying power for this distance. Sun King is by Charismatic, the 1999 Derby/Preakness winner who broke his cannon bone 3 strides before the wire in the Belmont while leading. Charismatic was by Summer Squall, and is inbred to Secretariat on both sides. The dam side brings class and some speed influence. Wilko is by Awesome Again, a BC Classic winner who also threw BC Classic winner Ghostzapper. I'm not familiar with his female side, and the pedigree analysis is unavailable. Assume that the distance is there from the sire side alone.
Re: 2005 Kentucky Derby Trail There's a lot of video available through the Kentucky Derby official site. Make sure you get a chance to look at the preps again, and consider some of the track biases involved as well, especially in light of Bandini's off the pace win over a speed favoring Keeneland surface. In addition, when you watch Afleet Alex's closing kick in the Arkansas Derby, remember that Oaklawn is not flat-- there is a slight downhill grade to the stretch run.