2003 Russian Premier League, RPL Cup & Russian Cup-Schedule, Predictions, Results (R)

Shinnik!! I'm going to yaroslavl on monday for a semester abroad. Let's see if I can play a little soccer while I'm over there.

 

Title favourites:

No surprises here. This is CSKA's season to lose and Lokomotiv are the only reasonable challenger I see.

Contenders:

You always gotta watch out for Spartak. This is a side that doesn't give up. I don't see them doing anything less than competing for medals this year.
Torpedo and the Wings will also remain solid and may be able to sneak into the Top Three.

Dark horses:

Watch out for Saturn and Chernomorets. Both have talent to rely on and money to fall back on.

On the rise:

Dinamo, first of all. Lots of money and new leadreship should promise good things ahead. May be a season or two away from title contention.
Torpedo-Metallurg, with solid financial backing and an influx of talent will be an interesting team to watch. Team chemistry is a consern, especially with a rookie coach Sergei Aleynikov.
Uralan should also do much better, but here as well one must wonder whether the inexperienced Shalimov will be able to bring this colourful group together.
The young Rotor side will also stay in the top 10. Watch for the promising young star Aldonin, who may end up in Moscow or in Europe in the near future.

On the fall:

Zenit are still too young. Also, so far there hasn't been any history of foreign coaches succeeding in Russia, so Vladimir Petrzela has a brave new world to explore. For the sake of the Neva boys, let's hope he follows in the footsteps of his hockey counterpart Vuitek.


This leaves 4 sides to battle against relegation: Spartak-Alania, Rostselmash, Shinnik and Rubin.
Gotta give a nod to the inexperienced Rubin and RSM, who have been due for a send-down for ages.

 

Cup Winner: Spartak (giving Torpedo a European berth)

Top Scorer: Gusev (CSKA). He has finally gelled under Gazzayev's tutelage and should have an explosive season. Watch also for teammate Kirichenko, the marvelous youngster Kerzhakov (Zenit) and the ever-dangerous Moldovan export Rogaciov from Saturn.

Top Keeper: Mandrykin (CSKA) has loads of potential, Malafeyev (Zenit) is past-due for a great season and the elderly Cherchesov (Spartak-Alania) is the Russian version of Peter Shilton, but I am going to go with Ovchinnikov (Lokomotiv). He will be greatly added by his side's formiddable defense. Chichkin (Rotor) is looking to solidify a National Team spot and look for Levytsky to try to revitalize his career now that he is back with Chernomorets.

Top player: this title usually goes to a halfback, and here we have all the usual suspects, those being Loskov (Lokomotiv), Semak (CSKA) and, providing they fully recover from injuries, Titov (Spartak) and Izmaylov (Lokomotiv).
Izmaylov in particular will be very interesting to watch. He has the potential to become the next great Russian playmaker, but he is coming off a horrendous World Cup effort and a domestic season practically whiped out by a knee injury.

Additional predictions:

* Loko will steal some points from Dortmund, Milan and/or Real but won't make the cut in their CL group despite a respectable performance.

* Torpedo will bomb out of the first round of the UEFA Cup. Spartak will get past 2 opponents.

* Loko and CSKA will both make the 2003/04 Champions League and one will advance to the Round of 16.

* The national team will finish first in their qualifying group and Gazzayev will quit CSKA at the end of the season in order to concentrate his efforts on the upcoming European Championship.

* Petrzela won't last at Zenit beyond 2003.

* Aleynikov is fired in mid-season.

* Dzodzuashvili (Spartak-Alania) will be the first coaching casualty.

* Sokol and Dinamo-SPb earn a promotion.

Some bold ones:

* Romantsev is kicked upstairs at the end of the season, ending the Spartak dinasty. He won't last long in the management role and the Red-Whites spend the next couple of years mired in a rebuilding process.
* Dmitri Sychev tears up the nets for OM and the national team and is named the Sport-Express 2003 Athlete of the Year.
* Nigmatullin's European career gets on a fast track to nowhere. Before the year is up, he is welcomed in his native Kazan as the new starting keeper for Rubin.
* Saturn and Ren-TV's partnership breaks down, leaving the Moscow Region side's financial future in doubt. First Division's FC Khimki picks up the slack and tries to become the region's premier club.
* Igor Simutenkov finishes the 2003 season in MLS and signs up with a provincial RPL side over the winter.
* Oleg Dolmatov is coaching in the RPL before the season is over. Probably, with Torpedo-Metallurg.
* Torpedo-Metallurg set the all-time Russian low in home attendance (excluding Moscow derbies) and get an OK to move to Krasnoyarsk at the end of the season. Spartak become full-time occupants of the Eduard Streltsov Torpedo Stadium.
* Come wintertime, CSKA's and Spartak's own facilities are still nowhere near being built.
* At this time next year we will be witnesses to another inane name change. Or five.

 

I was never too high on him. I've seen all the hype and comparisons to Igor Netto but after watching him play a few times I was never able to ascertain what all the boo-hoo was about.
However, it is not I who picks the player of the year. It is indeed those sports writers who have created the hype to begin with. My guess is that all it would take for Titov is to recover from his injury and put up a half-decent season to receive serious consideration.

 

I think Dinamo might do well this year. They've been active as hell on the transfer market getting Alberto - top scorer in brasil last year. They've made new additions in the back and midfield too. Dinamo would be 3rd or 4th last year if not for the 6 games lost in a row in the beggining of the season. But with Prokopenko in charge now, I think they have a really good chance of starting well this year. I bet they can make europe next year. One thing is certain - they'll do better than spartak.

Also dont forget that in the preseason they've beaten Torpedo twice, and had some other nice wins.

I'd say watch out for Uralan and Krylya this year. Uralan has some good signings, while KS will build on what they've done last year. They have some nice players like karyaka and bober.

I think CSKA will win overall. They are a far better attacking team, and with an even stronger midfield, i think they'll be able to both penetrate loko's defense and gain some consistensy (ie won't lose to lower teams as much). This year their season won't depend on matches with the leaders.

On a different note, i have a question: Can CSKA make it to champions league next year, or do we only get just one potential team?

 

I think that this year it will work as follows.

UCL:

The champion (Lokomotiv) and the silver medalist (CSKA) will get the berths. CSKA will have to go through two qualifying rounds, Loko through one.

UEFA Cup:

The bronze medalist (Spartak) gets a berth. They will be joined by the Cup winner.
The bronze medalist will have to go through the preliminary round, while the Cup winner goes straight to the first round.
If Spartak win the Cup, they will get in as the Cup winner, while the 4th place team (Torpedo) will go to the preliminary round in place of the bronze medalist.
If Lokomotiv win the Cup (CSKA are already eliminated), the Cup finalist (whomever they may be) will go in as the Cup winner and Spartak will play in the preliminary round.
If Lokomotiv beat Spartak in the final, Spartak go in as the Cup winner and Torpedo goes to the preliminary round.

Intertoto Cup:

Russia is given 2 berths and 4th and 5th place teams (Torpedo and Krylya Sovetov) have the right of first refusal, unless they qualify for the UEFA Cup.
However, it is very unlikely that any Russian team will take advantage of this right. There doesn't seem to be any time in the league schedule.

 

I'm a little hazy on the whys and whats of the Intertoto, but don't x number of Intertoto teams get invited to the UEFA Cup? Wouldn't it be in the interest of any Russian teams, not to mention the league as a whole, to make the time in the schedule?

 

I agree, however there isn't much revenue generated for RPL sides by playing the likes of Dinaburg Daugavpils and NK Primorje in the early rounds of Intertoto.
Granted, there have been some success stories, such as Juventus visiting Rostov and Zenit's run to the "final" in 2000, but overall RPL clubs tend to think of an Intertoto commitment as a liability. There is nothing to gain from it (no Russian team has ever advanced to the UEFA Cup via this route) and it gets the players tired during the most brutal part of the Russian season.
I think that the RPL has deliberatly overlooked possible Intertoto fixtures while preparing its 2003 schedule (overstuffed with the addition of the Premier League Cup, which, I think, is a terrible idea) precicely because they share the sentiment.

I know that Krylya Sovetov have already expressed their interest in participating in Intertoto, but the Wings are having second thoughts now becuase of the scheduling difficulties. Besides, they are still in the hunt for the Russian Cup, which would give them an UEFA Cup berth.

 

Just guessing my arse off...

Torpedo-Metallurg - Spartak 1:3
A brutal first test for Aleynikov's boys.

Krylya Sovetov - Rotor 1:0
Ahhh, bad-weather spring football in the Russian province. Beds are available at special prices. Just make sure to bring lots of blankets.

Torpedo - Rostov 2:0
We are new, we are improved, just look at our logo! Sure, our roster is the same load of crap, but, by golly, we are so much easier to pronounce now!

Zenit - Saturn-RenTV 2:2
This may be the Teletubbies' last chance to crack the top three and they figure to be a tough side all year long, but Zenit usually play well in home openers.

CSKA - Rubin 4:0
Welcome to the big leagues, indeed. This is like going to pick up your prom date and being smacked in the face by her redneck father.

Spartak-Alania - Dinamo 0:0
Dinamo aren't there yet and Alania don't figure to be there for a while, but they usually give it a decent fight at home.

Shinnik - Chernomorets 2:1
Spring football galore. Snow, wind, sloppy play, questionable refereeing, god-awuful goalkeeping. See it all in Yaroslavl this Saturday!

 

What the bookies say (no one in the wagering forum cares so I though I'd post here):

Kriliya Sovietov v Rotor Volgograd 1.50 3.35 6.00
Zenit Petersburg v Saturn 2.00 3.10 3.30
Torpedo Moscow v Rostselmash 1.70 3.15 4.50
Torpedo ZIL v Spartak Moscow 5.00 3.30 1.60
Uralan v Lokomotiv Moscow 4.00 3.10 1.80

Alaniya v Dinamo Moscow 2.50 2.90 2.60
Shinnik v Chernomoretz 1.75 3.15 4.15
CSKA Moscow v Rubin Kazan 1.25 4.50 9.00

All prices are return on a dollar bet including your original dollar. First price is for the home team, second for a draw, third for the away team. Prices from gamebookers.

I think the best value is a Torpedo win, but I don't really know what the hell I'm talking about.

 

Well, it IS a home match, plus Saturn are unknown in Europe.
I agree, Torpedo looks like a safe investment. Theoretically, a Shinnik win is just as safe and would yield more, but these Mud Bowls sometimes turn out funny. And I wouldn't touch Spartak-Alania v. Dinamo with a ten-foot pole.

 

Maybe the writers never left the airport.