1 to 48: USA/MEX/CAN Qualification Watch

Just from what we have seen before, I tend to agree. I personally feel the only way that they make a Euro playoff Pot 3 is if EVERY team in the PO is Pot 3 or better. Based off of current projections, that can only happen with 1 group based off current UEFA playoff projections.

They have not.

 

Next matchday of FIFA qualifiers in UEFA is scheduled as follows:

• Groups D, F, I and K will play on November 13th.
• Groups A, G and L will play on November 14th.
• Groups B, C, E, H and J will play on November 15th.

Here are all possible scenarios for qualification, ordered by date and time:

November 13th: All scenarios will be known at 21:45 GMT.

• In Group D, France can qualify if they beat Ukraine at home.
• In Group F, Portugal can qualify (i) if they win at Ireland, or, (ii) if they tie and Hungary cannot win at Armenia.
• In Group I, Norway can qualify (i) if they beat Estonia at home, and Italy cannot win at Moldova, or (ii) if they tie and Italy lose.

November 14th: All scenarios will be known at 21:45 GMT. Observe that no team from Group A can qualify in this matchday.

• In Group G, Netherlands can qualify if they win at Poland.
• In Group L, Croatia can qualify if they do not lose against Faeroe Islands.

November 15th: The scenario in Group J will be known at 16:00 GMT; the ones in Group E, at 19:00 GMT; and the ones in Groups B and H at 21:45 GMT. Also, no team from Group C can qualify in this matchday.

• In Group B, Switzerland can qualify (i) if they beat Sweden at home, and Kosovo cannot win at Slovenia, or (ii) if they tie and Kosovo lose.
• In Group E, Spain can qualify (i) if they win at Georgia, and Turkey cannot beat Bulgaria at home, or (ii) if they tie and Turkey lose.
• In Group H, Austria can qualify if they win at Cyprus, and Bosnia-Herzegovina cannot beat Romania at home.
• In Group J, Belgium can qualify if they win at Kazakhstan.

 

All groups on the next matchday of FIFA qualifiers in CONCACAF will play on November 13th. Here are all possible scenarios for qualification:

• In Group B, Jamaica can qualify if they win at Trinidad & Tobago, and Curacao lose in Bermuda. Both matches will be played at 00:00 GMT (+1)
• In Group C, Honduras can qualify if they win at Nicaragua and Costa Rica cannot win at Haiti. Both matches will be played at 02:00 GMT (+1)

Observe that no team from Group A can qualify in this matchday.

 

My (probabilistic) prediction regarding the possible teams from UEFA that can qualify on the next matchday is:

• More than 75% chance: Portugal, Belgium.
• Between 50-75% chance: France, Netherlands, Croatia.
• Between 25-50% chance: Switzerland, Austria.
• Less than 25% chance: Norway, Spain.

Regarding Norway, even if they win, I believe they will have to wait until November 16th because Italy will also win. And we will have to wait if Italy can score more than 8 goals in the final match (highly unlikely).

Regarding Spain, even if they win, I believe they will have to wait until November 18th because Turket will also win. But Spain is highly favored to beat Turkey and end with a perfect 100% record.

 

In CONCACAF, I believe there is a 50-50% chance that Honduras can qualify. Costa Rica has not been playing well lately, so a tie and a Honduras win can happen.

On the other group, I do not think Curacao will lose. Actually, I expect them to beat Bermuda by a large margin. Also, Jamaica has not been consistent, and actually I do not see them beating T&T.

 

🚨 BREAKING!

💥 We have strong indication that FIFA will CHANGE the seeding principle for teams that will qualify for WC 2026 via Play-offs!

🔙 At WC 2022 in Qatar, all PO teams were automatically placed into Pot 4, regardless of their FIFA pts.

🆕 But for WC 2026, FIFA is… pic.twitter.com/tcRsk9DOwK

— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) November 9, 2025

 

I agree with that change, although I would move the Italy path to pot 2.

You shouldn't be a seeded team if you can't qualify directly.

By the way these rankings are terrible.

How on earth are Italy and Belgium ranked so high ? Ridiculous.

 

I mean take this with a grain of salt but anything is possible. I'd rather deal with Italy being pot 1 then pot 4. However the difference between Italy and Germany is tiny. It would absolutely come down to results in this next window. If they both pick up 2 wins, it would go to Italy, but if Italy don't beat Norway and Germany gets 2 wins, they would pass Italy to pot 1.

Also those rankings aren't 100%. If Costa Rica makes the playoff they are almost definitely going to leapfrog Tunisia and Ivory Coast into Pot 3. So all the playoff teams would be Pot 3 except Italy.

 

Italy squad is definitely pot one quality.

 

That's something I couldn't imagine to happen. But to me it doesn't seem correct to put teams, that are not yet qualified into Pot 1. Italy to qualify via Playoffs of course is the most likely scenario. But they were failing in the playoffs before the last two World Cups.
And we should keep in mind that not all other Pot 1 teams are qualified yet. It's possible that Germany, who could overtake Italy, is losing against Slovakia to not qualify and also that the Netherlands are losing against Poland.
If there will be a surprise in the Playoffs, maybe we have North Macedonia and Scotland in Pot 1 then

And like somebody else was mentioning a few days ago, with these pots there is a theoretical chance to draw 3 Playoff teams into one group. But maybe they will also set the rule, that there can only be one playoff team in one group.

 

This does change a lot of things, it decreases massively the chance of a potential group of death if the strongest Pot 4 team is Tunisia.

The only two thing that pisses me off witj this change is
a) Italy being in Pot 1 as a Playoff team
b) A group can have multiple unknown teams after the draw, like if Italy PO path ends in pot 2 you can end up with a group of:
- Argentina
- European Playoff
- European Playoff
- Intercontinental Playoff

Nah, practically all the current group leaders in UEFA are qualified in everything but name. Netherlands & Spain have to lose to Poland & Turkey respectively by 6-8 goals, Belgium just needs a point of either Kazakhstan or Liechstein, Croatia just needs a point out of Faroe Islands or Montenegro. Switzerland has +9 GD while everyone else has a negative GD in their group.

The three groups in my opinion where something can happen is:
1.- Scotland beating Denmark to top Group C
2.- Bosnia beating Romania and Austria to top Group H
3.- Slovakia beating Northern Ireland and Germany to top group A

and I find Slovakia beating Germany again waaay unlikely

 

Well as things stand there could be no playoff teams except pot 1 and 3.

If Costa Rica make the playoff they will leapfrog into pot 3. This is assuming Nigeria won the Africa playoff, they are the only team that would be pot 3. Baring a weird unlikely upset in Europe, all euro playoffs will be pot 3.

FIFA has the interest of having the best teams make the knockouts. That means a crap pot 4. Doing stupid stuff with Italy is the trade-off to have even pots otherwise.

 

Yes, you are right. I thought Poland and Netherlands are closer in goal difference. So the only surprise concerning Pot 1 could be Germany to lose against Slovakia. Unlikely, but after the last impression of Germany not impossible.
And I don't know why everybody has the opinion, that Italy will win the Playoffs for sure. Of course they are favourites, but they were struggling a lot against better teams (Switzerland, Israel, Norway). If they draw a path with Scotland and Hungary for example. These are teams they could lose in one match.

 

That is not correct. Honduras is 3 points above Haiti, so if they both win, Honduras will lead by 3 points and not qualify yet. Honduras needs Haiti vs. Costa Rica (in Curacao because Haiti cannot host) to be a draw because that is the only way for Honduras to be at least 4 points above both of them. Honduras ends at Costa Rica, while Haiti ends playing Nicaragua in Curacao, so if Haiti trails Honduras by 3 points and goal differential, making that up on the last matchday is possible. Honduras should want to beat Nicaragua by multiple goals so they win a goal differential tiebreaker against Haiti if it is necessary. Honduras is 2 points above Costa Rica. If Honduras beats Nicaragua, they will lead Costa Rica by 2, 4, or 5 points, and in all of those cases they cannot finish tied, so goal differential between Honduras and Costa Rica is unlikely to matter.

On Matchday 6, all six games will be at the same time. That is necessary because with two of three second place teams going to playoffs, groups affect each other.

 

Interesting that Guatemala opts to play these last 2 massive home games at the much smaller El Trebol stadium vs the typical Mateo Flores stadium.

@edcalvi or anyone have insight on that decision?

Massive games, just massive and the country looks ready for it.

 

You are right, I forgot to take Haiti into consideration. Hence the correct scénarios for today in Concacaf are:

• In Group B, Jamaica can qualify if they win at Trinidad & Tobago, and Curacao lose in Bermuda. Both matches will be played at 00:00 GMT (+1)
• In Group C, Honduras can qualify if they win at Nicaragua, and Costa Rica and Haiti tie. Both matches will be played at 02:00 GMT (+1)

Recall that no team from Group A can qualify today.

 

With results at halftime, neither France nor Portugal will qualify today, as France is tying with Ukraine, and Portugal is losing in Ireland.

Surprisingly, Norway could qualify today, as beat Estonia, and Italy is currently tying with Moldova.

 

Functionally, Norway are in. I get that they haven't clinched, but they are +19 on GD with 1 game left, 2 for Italy. Even with a head to head matchup left, in Italy, it is just too much.

Maybe if Italy laid an 10 goal beatdown on Moldova they'd have life, but it is 0-0 at half.

 

Nigeria - DR Congo should be a great match. Were the best of the four teams in the African playoff IMO.

 

About 10 minutes to go (not counting added time), and now France is up 2-0, so it seems they will qualify today.

Also Norway would qualify today, as Italy is still 0-0 in Moldova.

Let's see which match ends first. The second half started first at Moldova.

Ten-man Portugal is down 2-0 at Ireland, with CR7 shown a straight red card. So they would have to wait until Sunday.

 

Italy is now winning 0-2 at Moldova, with 4 minutes of added time left.

So it seems only France will qualify today.

 

29. France

 

Curiously, neither England nor France qualified for the 1994 World Cup in USA. Now, they have been the first 2 European teams to qualify for the 2026 World Cup in USA (and Mexico and Canada).

 

Jamaica just shot itself in the foot.