1 to 48: USA/MEX/CAN Qualification Watch

Well, Jamaica failed to qualify today. In fact, right now they are in second position in their group.

And, with about 35 minutes to go, it seems that also Honduras will not qualify today, as they are losing 1-0 at Nicaragua.

 

CONCACAF is so incredibly weird sometimes. There is no way these scores hold.

 

They in fact, held.

We're in for a doozy next week.

 

It has happened many times before though.

Argentina in 1994
Italy in 1998
Germany in 2002
Spain in 2006
Uruguay in 2014
Portugal in 2022

All qualified via playoffs, and were then seeded for the tournament finals.

 

After the games on Thursday, CONCACAF will define on Tuesday, November 18th which countries qualify directly. All games start at 01:00 GMT(+1).

Group A:

Suriname will qualify:

• If they win at Guatemala, and either (i) Panama tie or lose with El Salvador at home, or (ii) Panama win, but the scores do not allow them to overcome the goal difference that right now favors Suriname (+5 vs +2)
• If they tie, and Panama tie or lose.
• If they lose, but Panama also lose, and the scores do not allow them to overcome the goal difference.

Panama will qualify:

• If they beat El Salvador, and either (i) Suriname tie or lose at Guatemala, or (ii) Suriname win, and the scores allow Panama to overcome the goal difference.
• If they tie, but Suriname lose.
• If they lose, but Suriname also lose, and the scores allow Panama to overcome the goal difference

Group B:

Curaçao will qualify if they win or tie at Jamaica.

Jamaica will qualify if they beat Curaçao at home.

Group C:

Honduras will qualify:

• If they win at Costa Rica, and either (i) Haiti tie or lose with Nicaragua, or (ii) Haiti win, but the scores do not allow them to overcome the goal difference that right now favors Honduras (+3 vs +1)
• If they tie and Haiti tie or lose.

Haiti will qualify:

• If they beat Nicaragua at home, and either (i) Honduras tie or lose at Costa Rica, or (ii) Honduras win, and the scores allow Haiti to overcome the goal difference.

Costa Rica will qualify:

• If they beat Honduras at home, and Haiti tie or lose with Nicaragua.

 

The last matchday for groups D, F, I, and K will be played on Sunday, November 16th. As groups D and K have already defined the countries that qualify directly (France and England, respectively), we only look at the teams that can still qualify in groups F and I.

Group F:

All games will start at 14:00 GMT.

Portugal will qualify:

• If they beat Armenia at home.
• If they tie, and either (i) Hungary tie or lose with Ireland at home, or (ii) Hungary win, but the scores in both games do not allow Hungary to overcome the goal difference that right now favors Portugal (+5 vs +2).
• If they lose, and either (i) Hungary and Ireland tie, or (ii) Ireland win, but the scores in both games do not allow Ireland to overcome the goal difference that right now favors Portugal (+5 vs +1).

Hungary will qualify:

• If they beat Ireland at home, and either (i) Portugal lose with Armenia, or (ii) Portugal tie, and the scores in both games allow Hungary to overcome the goal difference.

Ireland will qualify:

• If they win at Hungary, Portugal lose with Armenia, and the scores in both games allow Ireland to overcome Portugal’s goal difference.

Group I:

All games will start at 19:45 GMT.

Norway will qualify if they win or tie at Italy, or if they lose by 8 goals or less.

Italy will only qualify if they beat Norway by 9 or more goals.

 

Regarding my predictions for Thursday, I was right that France was likely to qualify, while Norway would have to wait until next Tuesday.

I was also right that no team from CONCACAF was going to qualify today, although I did not expect Honduras to lose.

I only missed the prediction for Portugal. I was so sure that Portugal was going to win at Ireland.

 

France IN. Norway all but in if they can avoid losing to Italy by less than 9.

1. United States
2. Mexico
3. Canada
4. Japan
5. New Zealand
6. Iran
7. Argentina
8. Uzebekistan
9. South Korea
10. Jordan
11. Australia
12. Brazil
13. Ecuador
14. Uruguay
15. Colombia
16. Paraguay
17. Morocco
18. Tunisia
19. Egypt
20. Algeria
21. Ghana
22. Cape Verde
23. South Africa
24. Qatar
25. England
26. Saudi Arabia
27. Cote d'Ivoire
28. Senegal
29. France

 

Playoff updates (Ranks)
1. OFC (1): New Caledonia (150)
2. CONMEBOL (1): Bolivia (76)
3. CAF (1): Nigeria (41)/DR Congo (60)
4. AFC (1): Iraq (58)/UAE (67)
5. CONCACAF: atm Panama (31)
6. CONCACAF: atm Jamaica (68)

Still 8 teams for 5 spots in CONCACAF, with each having very realistic auto qualifying and PO qualification scenarios.

Currently in CONCACAF Qualifing:
Group A: Team, Pts, GD, Last match
Suriname, 9, +5, at Guatemala
Panama, 9 +2, El Salvador
Guatemala, 5, -1
El Salvador, 3, -6
--------------Group B-------
Curacao, 11, +10, at Jamaica
Jamaica, 10, +8, Curacao
---------Group C------
Honduras, 8, +3, at Costa Rica
Haiti, 8, +1, Nicaragua
Costa Rica, 6, +2, Honduras
---------

The most like scenario, to me, is:

1) Jamaica beats Curacao at home narrowly, winning Group B. Curacao have 11 points and the best GD atm, and they get a PO spot, even with the loss.

2) Costa Rica get a win, or at least a draw, at home to Honduras. The expected Haiti win at home vs already eliminated Nicaragua wins them the group. A big win could do the same even if Honduras manage a win in CR. A draw likely eliminates Honduras. They likely need a win.

3) Panama win home to El Salvador and secure, at least a PO spot. Suriname likely need a draw to make the POs and win to win the Group at already eliminated Guatemala. I think they get the win, but at least a draw.




Panama needed a last gasp equalizer home to Suriname or else the group would have ended with Suriname's 4-0 win last night. Panama need a big win to get in.

 

For atmosphere and team spirit it really sucks that El Salvador and Guatemala crapped the bed yet again. The Caribbean fans are not going to bring the energy and intensity that those fans would have brought.

Honduras would be the same story if they lose.

 

I'm almost positive that DR Congo will jump Iraq in the rankings if they win. They are so close and in the first round, DR Congo got a win while Iraq got a draw. If DR Congo matches the result of Iraq, that should be enough as a draw vs Nigeria (PK win = draw) is better than draw vs UAE. Even if they draw and PK win, the win vs Cameroon and draw vs Nigeria is going to be worth more points than a win and draw vs UAE.

So I think Africa will be seeded regardless. Panama is going to be seeded if they are in it. Costa Rica require too much and I think are finished. If Jamaica are in the playoff, its because their results suck and they won't be seeded.

So the seeds for the playoff are largely known. Africa representative for sure, Panama if they are there, Asian representative if Panama isn't there.

 

Guatemala is eliminated.

 

I am so interested to see how the crowds will be for the playoffs.
I assume Bolivia will travel well. Their fanaticos have been waiting 32 years for this moment. And I assume the locals will see them as a sentimental underdog team easy to root for. And they wear green just like El Tri.

The other possible teams I am not so sure about.

 

We are currently at half-time, and only Croatia are qualifying right now, although they are only tying 1-1. Netherlands will have to wait until Monday, as they are losing 1-0 at Poland.

Edit 1: All games in group A are currently 0-0.

Edit 2: Croatia's game was the first to start the second half.

 

It is said that FIFA made some changes on the pots deciding method, now if Italy qualifies it goes to the 1st pot! if it's true then how are they going to do it since we can't know who qualifies until after the Draw? like what if Italy plays let's say "Sweden" in the playoffs but didn't qualify, do Sweden gets to take the Group where Italy was supposed to be? If so then is it fair for non 1st Pot teams to take the place of what others have been working hard to get? (aka GER - CRO - MAR...), I think it's better if they'd keep the original plan where all playoffers goes straight to POT-4, sure Italy in Pot-4 is not gonna be good news for whatever Pot-1 team who'll face them, but at least it guarantees some excitement in the group stage, just because FIFA messed with the calendar again doesn't mean they should mess with the whole thing.

 

About 10-15 to go (not counting added time) and Croatia is now cruising to victory. So they will qualify.

Netherlands tied the game, but they need to win to qualify today. In any case, the goal difference they currently have should guarantee a qualifying spot.

 

30. Croatia

 

So now all of the final four from 2022 have qualified for 2026.

the 2018 final four are still missing Belgium.

 

The last matchday for groups A, G, and L will be played on Monday, November 17th. As group L has already defined the country that qualifies directly (Croatia), we only look at the teams that can still qualify in groups A and G. All games will start at 19:45 GMT.

Group A:

Germany will qualify if they win or tie with Slovakia at home.

Slovakia will only qualify if they win at Germany.

Group G:

Netherlands will qualify if either (i) they win or tie with Lithuania at home, or (ii) if they lose and Poland wins at Malta, but the scores in both games do not allow Poland to overcome the goal difference that right now favors Netherlands (+19 vs +6).

Poland will only qualify if they win at Malta, Netherlands lose at home with Lithuania, and the scores in both games allow Poland to overcome the goal difference.

 

Well, I was right that Croatia was going to qualify today.

But I expected the Netherlands to have more than a 50% chance of winning in Poland. In any case, I believe their qualification is all but guaranteed.

 

Belgium could qualify today, but are losing in Kazakhstan, 1-0. Still would be top with a loss. Liechtenstein at home in the finale.

The Swiss are 3 pts an +10 GD up in Kosovo heading into today. If Kosovo drop points (relatively) it is over. The teams do play in the finale, in Kosovo. If the Swiss drop points to the Swedes, that could get real interesting.

Similar story with Spain, 3 points and +12 GD ahead of Turkey. Teams meet in the finale, in Spain. Spanish win today kind of puts them in the "not in, but functionally in" category with Norway & the Dutch.

Austria can qualify with a win in Cyprus + Bosnia-Herzegovina dropping points at home to a still alive Romania. BH travel to Austria for the finale. If BH win out, they are in.


1. United States
2. Mexico
3. Canada
4. Japan
5. New Zealand
6. Iran
7. Argentina
8. Uzebekistan
9. South Korea
10. Jordan
11. Australia
12. Brazil
13. Ecuador
14. Uruguay
15. Colombia
16. Paraguay
17. Morocco
18. Tunisia
19. Egypt
20. Algeria
21. Ghana
22. Cape Verde
23. South Africa
24. Qatar
25. England
26. Saudi Arabia
27. Cote d'Ivoire
28. Senegal
29. France
30. Croatia

 

50 minutes and Belgium just tied their game at Kazakhstan, 1-1. One more goal and they qualify today.

 

Well, Belgium could not beat Kazakhstan, so they will have to wait until Tuesday when they face Liechtenstein at home.

 

Yes and Belgium was very lucky to not have Doku’s Achilles get ripped to pieces on that red card. They will qualify very easily on Tuesday.

 

1-0 for Spain.

VAR is used for the UEFA Qualifiers and not for the CAF ones.