1. Qatar; 2. ? Let's start the traditional 1 to 32 teams qualification watch discussion thread. Who can be the first teams to qualify to Qatar and when that might happen.
If Denmark wins at Moldova and hosting Austria, they will qualify on October 12 without needing help. France leads Group D by 7. In October, I think they can clinch finishing above every team individually, but not every team together. Belgium leads Group E by 9 points, but in order to qualify in October they need help from Belarus and Estonia against Czech Republic and Wales. England leads Group I by 4. In October, they go to Andorra and host Hungary. If they don't clinch over Hungary on October 9, they will clinch over Hungary if they beat them on October 12. To qualify in October, England also needs Albania to lose or draw hosting Hungary and draw at Poland, who will be coming off a win hosting San Marino. With 3 wins and a lot of help, Brazil could qualify in October.
After the October FIFA date most teams in CONMEBOL will have 18 points left to play for. Brazil are currently 11 points ahead of 5th place. It would take a lot of help to keep 5th place more than 18 points away after this window, but it could happen. The key matches are basically anything with Colombia and Paraguay, especially: Colombia (5) x Brazil (1), Colombia (5) x Ecuador (4), Chile (8) x Paraguay (6). But even if Colombia and Paraguay are somehow kept below the 15 point mark there's also a small chance Peru or Chile could leapfrog them in that scenario. Realistically Brazil has been practically qualified since before the September matches, but because of the suspended match with Argentina they may have to wait to make it official. Those potential three points could end up being the difference between mathematically guaranteeing qualification in October versus only in November.
We can guess how many teams will qualify each month. October: Denmark (1 this month, 2 total including Qatar) November: 9 in UEFA, Brazil (10 this month, 12 total) January-February: Argentina, Mexico, one in AFC (3 this month, 15 total) March: 3 in UEFA, 2 in CONMEBOL, 2 in Concacaf, 3 in AFC, 5 in CAF (15 this month, 30 total) June: 2 in interconfederational playoffs
Germany have at last taken the lead against North Macedonia, and with Romania ahead against Armenia they are set to qualify...
Let's say they win their next three games, including the third one hosting Brazil. They would have 31 points after 14 matchdays that would be 13 games for them and Brazil because of the suspended game. They would have to be at least 13 points above fifth, meaning at least six teams would have to have 18 or fewer points after 14 games. Colombia (15) hosts Ecuador, goes to Brazil, and hosts Paraguay. If they lose to Ecuador and Brazil, it doesn't matter what they do against Paraguay in terms of if they exceed 18 points. Paraguay (12) goes to Bolivia, hosts Chile, and goes to Colombia. Give them losses to Bolivia and Chile, and it doesn't matter what they do against Colombia. Peru (11) goes to Argentina, hosts Bolivia, and goes to Venezuela. If they lose to Argentina, they can't exceed 18 points in 14 games even if they win the following two. Chile (10) hosts Venezuela, goes to Paraguay, and hosts Ecuador. The only way they exceed 18 is if they win all three. I already gave them a win over Paraguay above. Bolivia (9) cannot exceed 18 points then. It is possible for Argentina to qualify next month. Some of the possibilities can become impossible after Thursday's games. If Brazil wins their next three games, they qualify. Germany went from not in first to the first team to clinch first. They're in the only UEFA group with 5 teams alive. Denmark qualifies tomorrow if they get at least as many points hosting Austria as Scotland does at Faroe Islands. Denmark and Scotland are both likely to win, which would qualify Denmark. Nobody else can qualify this week. England cannot qualify tomorrow, but they can come close. If they win hosting Hungary, and Albania vs. Poland is a draw, they will clinch over Poland and Hungary, and they will lead Albania by 6 points and at least 17 goal differential.
And they have done so. Only perfect team in UEFA. 8 games. 8 wins. 1. Qatar 2. Germany 3. Denmark Dance card gonna really start filling in in November. 8 more from UEFA + likely Brazil.
AFC and CONCACAF is a no. CAF is obviously a no since they have a playoff round. UEFA will have eight teams qualify. Brazil is 15 points clear of 5th place Uruguay with all teams except BRA/ARG having 6 games left. If Brazil beat Colombia and Uruguay fails to win against Argentina then they are through. Argentina is 9 points clear of Uruguay. A win on the first November MD puts them 12 points clear with 5 games left. Argentina would need to beat Brazil to get to 31 and then have the 5th placed team have 18 or less pts. There is also the issue of the suspended ARG/BRA game that we don't know the result of. Although assuming there aren't point deductions, all of the above math stands.
A few UEFA teams have a chance of qualifying on the next matchday. 11 Nov: Sweden can go through if they win in Georgia and then Spain fail to win in Greece. Russia, if they beat Cyprus (at home) and then Croatia fail to win in Malta. 12 Nov: England, if they beat Albania (at home) while Poland fail to win in Andorra, or if England draw while Poland lose. 13 Nov: France, if they beat Kazakhstan (at home), or if France draw after a Bosnia draw v Finland. Belgium, if they beat Estonia at home, or (anyway) if meanwhile Wales fail to win v Belarus. Netherlands, if they win in Montenegro after Norway fail to win v Latvia.
In addition, Scotland could clinch a playoff spot with a win in Moldova. Croatia would clinch a playoff spot with a loss to Russia. Spain would clinch a playoff spot if they lose to Greece, or if Sweden wins and Spain don't beat Greece. Wales would clinch a playoff spot if France get anything from their match against Kazakhstan and Belgium beats Estonia. [But correct me if I'm wrong ]
I think Spain (as an alternative to France) can impact Wales. I was generally going to try to list the Nations League playoff possibilities but my brain keeps melting. If Spain or France get any points they are assured top-two finishes. If they both do, then Austria and Czech Republic go to the playoffs. Wales as well, if they lose sight of Belgium like you implied (...but wouldn't a Wales failure to win also do that?) If one of Spain or France lose, then Wales get a playoff spot if they can't make 1st. I think the Czechs and Austria would still be waiting (Wales/Czech Rep would still be competing for second place.) If France and Spain both lose then I guess nothing gets decided NL-wise. Maybe.
To clarify south america: -Brazil will qualify with a win against Colombia regardless any other result. If they draw that game they can also qualify if Uruguay loses to Argentina. In any case Brazil also has the Argentina match next and a lot of variables that favor them to qualify this window. -Argentina can qualify in this window if they win both games (URU & BRA) and if two of the following happen: 1.Uruguay fails to beat Bolivia (assuming they also lost to Argentina of course). 2. Chile fails to win the 6 pts. 3. Colombia fails to pick up more than 2 pts. 4. Ecuador fails to pick up more than 1 pt. Argentina can also theoretically qualify by getting 4 out of the 6 pts, but the mentioned teams would have to earn even less points to allow it (eg. Uruguay would have to lose both games).
Massive shock in Batumi: Georgia 2-0 Sweden Spain about to kick off in Athens where a win would vault them top of the group ahead of Sunday's big clash.
Does anybody know what the fewest wins by a team that qualified was? Ukraine could finish second with 1 win! If Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Finland is 0-0, Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Ukraine is a draw, and Finland draws or loses hosting France, Ukraine will finish second with 1 win and 7 draws. Ukraine and Bosnia and Herzegovina are +1, and Ukraine has 1 more goal. If the combination happens with Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Finland 1-1, Ukraine and Bosnia and Herzegovina will come down to head-to-head away goals after the first game was 1-1, so Ukraine would need a draw with at least 2 or a 1-1 and winning the fair play tiebreaker. If the combination happens with Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Finland a draw at 2-2 or higher, Bosnia and Herzegovina would win the goals scored tiebreaker over Ukraine. Finland is +0 and trails Ukraine by 1 point, so if Ukraine draws their only game and Finland draws twice, Ukraine will have a better goal differential. In WCQs for 2006, Switzerland finished second in Group 4 with 4 wins and 6 draws, and they got a win and a loss in a playoff against Turkey to qualify on away goals, so Switzerland had 5 wins.