Here's more than you probably wanted to know: The Draw is in December. The US will then play a Group of 3 "beginning in Spring 2004" according to the official CONCACAF release below or "in February or March 2004" according to the Soccer Times article below. However, the Soccer Times article mentions, "CONCACAF has not announced its schedule, but the FIFA 2004 calendar lists March 30, April 27 and two unspecified days in May as international play dates which will probably be used for the first round." Only the winners advance from the First Round groups. Beyond that, there's a Semifinal Round Group of 4 later in '04 (top two in each group advance) and a Final Round Group of 6 throughout '05 (three go to World Cup, fourth goes to playoff with Asian team). Although there will be at least one Group of 2 in the first round (only one Group of 2 is scheduled, but it seems one of the smaller countries in CONCACAF ends up suspended from WCQ), according to the Soccer Times article, the draw is set up in such a way that the US, Mexico, and Costa Rica can't be in the smaller group. We're in "Pot A" so, assuming they draw against the various Pots in order, a "Pot C" team (Canada, Barbados, El Salvador, Guatemala, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Panama) will probably end up in a Group of 2. http://www.concacaf.com/news/article.page/1202 http://www.soccertimes.com/international/2003/feb25.htm
New from Arena: "Additionally, it gives me a great opportunity to evaluate some of our players as we prepare for not only the Gold Cup in July, but also World Cup qualifying which we anticipate will start next January." http://www.ussoccer.com/news/fullstory.sps?iNewsid=37218&itype=113&iCategoryID=0
Exactly! We've got the potential for two cool island trips in this round. Of course, it could be two unusual and more expensive trips too (say, if we drew Suriname and Guyana).
Atouk, I have been reading about travel to Surinam and Guyana for a long time, not because of any interest in soccer. I even called the U.S. Embassy in Suriname last year to get some updated information. Will it come to pass that we can have a Paramaribo Travel Tips thread? Stranger things have happened. Devil's Island is lovely in January!
I can't wait for qualifying to start back up again. The sooner it starts, the sooner we can go back to kicking the crap out of those who underestimate us. And isn't Aruba in CONCACAF, hmm... sounds like an interesting trip, maybe they'll be in our group of 3.
I don't think anyone in CONCACAF understimates us any more. Except Mexico for some reason. I guess their strerling record against us for the last few years somehow leaves them overconfident.
Nobody in CONCACAF underestimates us because we've been whoopin on them for the last 2 years+. I really wish the Bruce would schedule some friendlies against the Englands, Frances, Italys, Brazils, Koreas of the world so we can prove to the rest that US Soccer deserves respect. Hopefully the Confed Cup may prove it, even though Brazil isn't sending the cavalry. Tommy said on ESPNews today that even if Brazil sends its 3rd or 4th team to the Cup the US would have trouble hanging with them. We shall see next week.
Have I mentioned how much this new set up scares me. When I did before I was assured we'd draw a couple of serious minnows like Aruba and the Bahamas and whump the crap out of them, but now I look and see that we could play Cuba or Haiti or both and... I can see it coming: we're going to get drawn with Cuba and Turks & Whatever in the first round, and drop a politically charged 3-0 loss to Cuba on three penalties (plus a couple of red cards) with Castro looking on. And watch as we then beat Cuba at home and then have a race to see who can beat the uber-minnow by the most goals (or worse yet, we get the minnow early and instead of giving them the American Samoa treatment, we let up on them and it bites us in the ass on GD). A little bad luck, and it's four and done for four more years... Wonderful. Cuba's currently the 7th best team in the FIFA Rankings in CONCACAF and a win or two away from being ranked 5th, and yet because it's based on the last qualifying pull instead of something sensible (like something that gauges how well the team has been playing more recently than four years ago), they're in Pot D where all the minnows are supposed to be. Grrrrrrrr... If we do get Cuba, I'd rather we get Haiti or something as well, so at least we'd have a chance of the other team taking points off them.
Be careful what you wish for. Brazil just sent a squad to Nigeria. The article says the plane trip took 20 hours (which sounds exagerrated). But regardless, they had only practiced together for 40 minutes yesterday and today they beat Nigeria 3-0. In spite of that, I remain optimistic that we'll do well in the Confederations Cup. http://soccernet.espn.go.com/headlinenews?id=269621&cc=5901
I could care less who we draw in the first round. We're not going to lose to Cuba or Haiti. And frankly, a little stiff competition at the beginning might toughen us up for the later rounds. What does bother me, however, is the possible favorable draw for a team like St V and the Gs. The very fact that they're seeded ahead of Cuba and Haiti gives tham a much higher chance of advancing to the final round than Cuba or Haiti. How is Cuba supposed to prove that they're one of the top 12 teams in Concacaf, if they're drawn in the same group as US or Mexico? Meanwhile, are St V and the Gs deserving of being in the final 12 (and possibly being seeded again in another 4 years) if they're drawn with Anguilla and Montserrat? There must be a fairer system than this! By the way, isn't "St V and the Gs" the coolest name ever???
Didn't someone run a computer sim on this where we beat the Bahamas something like 14-0 in the first round? Bocanegra had 4 goals IIRC. And Cleazer is right, we're not going to lose to Cuba or Haiti. We might beat them 2-0 or 2-1 instead of the 15-goal smackdowns we would lay on someone like Aruba (who actually managed a 1-1 draw against me once in qualifying for the 2010 WC in Championship Manager--it was one of 2 games during the entire qualifying process that I failed to win, the other being a draw at Jamaica in the Hex a week after putting a 5-0 past Mexico at the Azteca), but we won't lose to them. Even if they we do only get 1 point in Havana or Port-au-Prince, you can bet your ass we beat the living crap out of them at home, which gives us 10 points to their 7 (assuming both teams beat up on Bermuda or whoever home and away).
Last time we played Cuba, at home, we won 1-0 in the Gold Cup. FIFA has Cuba roughly at the level of Wales and New Zealand and frankly, I'd rather not have to deal with that in a round we shouldn't have to qualify from in the first place. Cuba's tied S. Korea and beat T&T 3-1 on the road in the last year. That's too stiff for a round that's supposed to be batting practice for us. If the last game of the group is Cuba needing to beat the Turks & Caicos Islands (currently ranked below American Samoa) by x amount of goals to beat us with 9 points on goal differential, I'm going to be majorly pissed.
True, but at least when that happens in CONCACAF, you get Cuba. When it happens in UEFA, you get a group that has Portugal, Ireland, and Holland! Our odds of drawing Cuba are small. After that, Haiti shouldn't worry us too much -- they worry Trinidad or someone, sure. Next down the list is St. Lucia, I believe. The odds are we'll have something like Bahamas and the British Virgin Islands, but, yes, one of the 12 "seeds" in the first round is going to have to battle Cuba, so lower seeds like St. Vincent & the Grenadines or Panama should be very worried.
Could be, Tom. At this point, I'm planning to make at least one (probably both) of our first round trips. Should be fun. Hope you can make it!
Voros is right. If the draw is random and the refs fair, we will be fine. But look at recent history and I think you will see that the draw has not been random and the refs unfair. If we draw Haiti and Cuba and get the same refs we had during 2000-2001 we will be planning for 2010 in short order. Coach Arena told Sports llustrated recently that the Confederations Cup "draw" was rigged. It is possible the next draw will be too, and this is the one that counts. Just my opinions.
Who knows, maybe he has tried this and they didn't want to. Knew we would be playing them in the Confed Cup Played them last year Knew we'd be playing them in Confed Cup and they are in the Gold Cup
Even if the draw is rigged, what possible incentive would Concacaf have for getting Haiti or Cuba rather than the US through to the semifinals? They draw less fans, generate less revenue, pose more logistical difficulties, and won't represent the region with the same level of quality soccer. If the draw is rigged, I suspect it will be to make things nice and soft for us and Mexico (here's hoping for matches against Aruba and Turks and Caicos). What's more, with 12 groups, the chances of drawing either cuba or haiti is low -- about 1/6 (1/12 + 1/11). And the chances of drawing both of those teams is far lower (1/12 x 1/11). And even if we do draw Cuba, I'm sure Bruce will recognize the seriousness of the situation and prepare accordingly. Have a little faith, y'all. We'll be fine in the first round and, I think, thereafter.
Um Chili, a thoughful post, and I agree with your calculations. But if the U.S. is good for CONCACAF we really would have had better refs in the last round of qualifying. Not everyone thinks only about money, and there are enough people out therre who absolutely hate the U.S. the joy they would get from seeing us fail is better than money. Of course there are those who put profit first, but they may not have the referee's whistle! I will be holding my breath during the "random" draw! Just my opinions.