http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/04/03/central-winger-why-possession-stats-are-misleading...
Quite a bit of Premiership data and analysis to be found here including a fairly comprehensive justification for Stoke's style of play and a...
Here's a basic method. Take the goal expectancies of each side. Work out the poisson probabilities of each team scoring 0,1,2,3 etc goals in...
Hi Voros, it's a good point. But the effect is still there if you take those games out.It's also there in the English football legue cup(or...
HFE. taking the Champions league/European cup as an example. I've looked at around 700 two legged ties. 78 games ended level after 180...
Anyone attempting to rate club sides from different countries when they face each other in knockout tournaments may benefit from the following....
Re team dependent deviation. So called 'draw specialists' records in subsequent seasons.From the English divisions since '86. 'Draw...
I agree(i think). If you take all the 'draw specialists' from one season and look at their combined results the next season,they always end up...
Adding, 37.8-(0.4757*fav's win%)=Percentage chance of the outsider winning at both half and full time. So if a fav's true chance of winning...
You can certainly get a regression line to derive the likelyhood of say a fav winning at both HT and to still be winning at FT from the match odds...
Hi CJ, you can certainly tweak the poisson to better mimic reality,especially in it's ability to correctly predict the likelyhood of low...
The usual method would be to use the goal expectancies for each team that you used to derive the home win/away win/draw odds to derive correct...
That's just a quick and dirty 'does the theory roughly fit the data'. If you want more specific you have to use the 1.45(X^0.83),combined with...
Hi Sagy, I've looked again at the scatterplot for offsides verses goals and it's a mess.So I've chucked alot more individual games data at it and...
Adding,the effect of the absence or presence of a team's main striker. It's easier to deduce the worth to a team of it's best player because...
Re red cards, just picked a EPL season at random. Teams that had a red card(and the other team didn't) won 26% of those games.A team with that...
Adding red cards. A red card worsens a team's expected goal supremacy by around 1.45 goals over a whole game. So more generally a red card...
All of what you say makes sense.You can rate sides from the same league fairly easily using some kind of smoothed average of their goals for/goals...
Adding fouls drew vs gls scored;not sig,totally random scatter plot. Fouls drew correlate to fouls conceded.Significant and +ve. Basically...
Looked at these stats for a couple of epl seasons but never got around to doing much else with them. I correlated various individual stats with...
Maybe you need to find constants using only results of the better teams?There's alot more average sides than truely outstanding ones so any catch...
Interesting idea,HFE. Aren't you losing information on the likelyhood of a draw though by going straight to win shares,you don't really know...
Slightly more time so here's a few more little pointers. The major problem when teams don't have a high goal expectation is the goaless games.A...
Hi CJ, the negative binomial distribution's a good place to start.You can run in in excel or openoffice.. Essenially you're looking at the...
Hi Hosehead, regards using previous results,try this method. You'll need,firstly the average number of goals per game that a team scores and...