... he would be on the team. As for Pope it's too much of a generalization that he hasn't played well in almost two years. It's also true that during these past two years Pope has played a number of games with the nats, some of them quite good. Arena keeps going to Pope and he says that Pope is a likely team member. Yeah, that's not standard opinion here on BS. Not the first time that Arena disagrees with what many folks here thoink, for better or worse.
He's also not gone with Pope despite Pope playing with RSL. Popes a veteran and Arena hardly counts veterans out unless he's retiring them. The likelihood of Armas playing well is about the same that of Pope playing well. Maybe Bush had more information about those weapons of mass destruction; so no need to criticize the man going to war. The last I checked this was discussion forum not a Bruce Arena tribute website for the True Believers.
Another thing in Pope's favor is that he's a right-footer defender who could theoretically play a center-right position in a 3 man backline (aka in a 3-5-2). As such, his competition is Conrad, Marshall and Spector. Onyewu is too big and heavy to play wide right and Bocanegra, Gibbs and Berhalter are all lefties who would probably be exposed at that position. That would likely mean only a 4-man backline which significantly cuts down the number of strategic options for the head coach.
First of all I am most interested in who's going to Germany. Since I am not picking the squad and Arena is, I'm more interested in what he might do rather than go on and on about my preferences. I definitely have judgments on the players but I'm setting them aside for a bit. Rant on all you like about "True Believers" crap unless you don't like the idea that I "Truly Believe" that Arena will select the team instead of a BigSoccer contingent. Now I am going back into 2005 and seeing if Arena favored any central defenders especially over any other. I looked at the WCQs plus England. I didn't look much at the Gold Cup games because it was clear back then that Boca (and Berhalter and Gibbs) wasn't on the team because he was getting ready for the EPL season with his team so there was little competition for starting there. (However I think the experince gained in thre GC by Onyewu and Conrad was huge for them. Also, including the GC would have shown even more that Gooch is the #1 CD now.) I looked at the six main CDs: Pope, Gooch, Boca, Gibbs, Berhalter, and Conrad. I was especially interested in if they recorded any DNPs or only played as a sub. In other words I wanted to see any indications of, "So and so, if called in, was an automatic starter." First, the number of games each played: Boca- 7 Pope, Gooch, Berhalter- 5 Gibbs- 3 Conrad- 1 It should be stressed that every CD wasn't called in for a few games. Boca played the most but still he didn't get called up for for three games (and didn't play in a fourth.) Clearly (as we know) Conrad is low man on the totem pole. Also of course Gibbs played in only three since he got really hurt. Pope got hurt too, in the GC which probably stopped him from playing more. Too bad really because if Gibbs had been healthy Arena would have really had to bench some of these guys more often. Now let's look at each player. Pope He started every game he was called in for except the last one, Panama where Marshall and Califf started, and he DNP'd there. He even started after he played poorly: a poor England game was followed by starts vs CR and @ Panama. In all three of those games Berhalter was the odd man out, subbing in twice (CR and Panama) and recording a DNP vs England. It should be mentioned that until he got hurt in the GC he and Gooch were Arena's favored pairing in CD there (over Conrad who thus benefited.) Most of Pope's games came in the first half of 2005; he only played afterwards @ CR. This was also after his injury in the GC. His DNP was of course in October. Outside of that DNP he was an automatic starter if called in. He did not finish the year well and his status in the pecking order deteriorated. My opinion is that when Pope gets nicked up his play goes downhill fast. I've seen this happening for years as Arena has often started him while he's nicked up. With Arena saying he doesn't want to carry nicked up players in Germany, Pope's chances to go there will really depend on his health. But if he's healthy this spring the odds are strong that he not only go to Germany but start as well (leaving Gibbs aside for now.) Onyewu Gooch played in five games plus the GC and the games were sprinkled all through the year. Every game he was called in for he started- the only CD who can say that. (Until Pope's DNP vs Panama, the same was true for him as well.) At various games Gooch started over Gibbs, Berhalter, Bocanegra and Conrad. To me this says, "Starter in Germany' all over it. Bocanegra Boca played in the most games (not including the GC games that Pope, Onyewu, and Conrad played). But he's the most complicated player to analyze as he mainly played at left back early in the year: the first three games he played (@T&T, Mexico, Guatemala). Then Arena ended the Boca @ LB experiment, instead playing Hedjuk, Lewis, Spector, and Vanney (GC) there. With Boca now back in CD for his last four games, he started two (CR, Panama), subbed in for one (England- Pope and Gibbs started) and recorded a DNP vs Mexico (Gooch and Berhalter started. Interestingly Gooch and Berhalter started both Mexico games, the most important games last year.) Clearly there's not pattern here suggesting that he's a definite #1 or #2 among the central defenders. But also clearly he's "in the mix". I've been holding out on declaring him a lock for Germany; there's where this post comes from. I'm still holding out but again he's very very likely IMO. Gibbs Only playing in three first half games before his injury, here's what happened: -@T&T he started w/ Pope with berhalter subbing in and Boca @ LB. -Vs Guatemala he started w/ Gooch and Boca @ LB with Berhalter a DNP. -Vs England he started w/Pope with Boca subbing in for Pope and Berhalter not playing again. Oddly enough though he recorded a DNP @ Mexico in favor of Berhalter and Gooch. Otherwise you would definitely think that if healthy and in form he'd be starting with Gooch in Germany. But there has to be some doubt until he comes back. Berhalter Greg started three of his five games played (@Mexico, T&T, Mexico), subbed in twice (@T&T, Panama) and had three DNP's (Guatemala, England, CR). It looks like he's #5 in this group of players. Still, he started both Mexico games benching Gibbs in the first and Bocanegra in the second. Odd. Conrad He's clearly #6 here. His first callup came in the GC. Then a few games later he started his lone WCQ @ Guatemala (with Marshall). In between he recorded a DNP vs Mexico. Summary 1) Onyewu looks like a strong #1 starter in Germany. There's nothing in how Arena used him that says otherwise. 2) After that it gets cloudy mainly because Gibbs got hurt. he could be the #2 starter or not. We'll just have to see him playing regularly again. 3) But Gibbs aside, I still say it's wide open for next on the pecking order based on 2005 games. I would say that Boca and His Holiness have the inside track for Germany, if not to start. If Gibbs isn't there one of them will probably start w/Gooch. But who? Both had uneven performances in 05. Both had games in the fall where they were called in and didn't get selected to play. I see no indication based on 05 that Pope or Boca are ahead of the other. It will comes down to their play this winter and spring. 4) I think the Boca to LB experiment, at least in emergencies is dead. If will definitely be dead if Eddie Lewis takes control of the position this spring. As such I don't see Arena using the possibility of playing Boca @ LB as a reason to include him on the Germany squad. (However if Lewis doesn't pan out then Boca will be an emergency backup.) 5) Berhalter is a wild card. He sure looks like #5 in the pecking order except it seems that Arena goes to him in important games. He's like a security blanket. Because of this I can imagine Arena taking all five CDs if they are all healthy. 6) Conrad probably only goes if two of the top five are hurt. Then he becomes the #4 CD. 7) The three-man backline seems to be very much a work in progress. The results weren't so good. It will be interesting to see what Arena does here. "Interesting" as in I'm scared. 8) For completeness sake here are the other players who played in CD in 05 in any game: -Marshall vs Colombia, Honduras, @ Guatemala, Panama -Califf vs Panama -Borchers vs Honduras, and subbed in vs Colombia -Kotchau vs Colombia -Sanneh in the GC vs Cuba and CR
Why don't you email him then? Most of are interested in whose going but don't resort this invocation of authority--'you're not the, so nerr'--as though there were a phoneline to god. OK, so he got playing time while others were hurt or during back-to-backs or didn't want to play in the Gold Cup. Berhalter; broke up his face and was out of the loop for a while. Bocanegra; rolled out at left back with only Vanney and who knows available. Hurt his ankle and was out for while Gibbs; busted up his knee and was out for a while. All four players are regulars on teams that play at a higher level competition than Real Salt Lake. Three of the players are significantly younger and haven't lost a couple of steps. The 4th would be playing the WC in the country he's been playing club for years and also hasn't lost the steps like Pope. But hey if 5 cds go, then Pope doesn't look quite as bad. That's the only other thing Pope has going for him. And even there I'd suggest Albright is better. About the same size; better speed; better distribution; played well in a Nats at that the position. If nothing else throw one of the left sided sided CDs over there before going with Pope.
Great come back. Did you hurt yourself patting your back after you wrote it? I'd post the rest of your snappy reply but once again, you have nothing to add.
Skip, I have to agree with Martin on this one -- it's Pope vs Berhalter. And right now, Berhalter has the upper hand. In the past Pope had to play himself off the team (very unlikely); now, he has to play himself on it. As for a "surprise," I don't think we're going to see anyone who comes out of the woodwork. Then again, I don't think we really saw anyone come out of the woodowork in the last cycle (Mastroeni is closest, but Beasley was ticketed, frankly, by the end of '01, with only Gold Cup to cement his spot).
Yeah, when I wrote that overly long thing above it looked like that to me know too at least in terms of how they played last year. But Arena likes Pope and I think he'll get several chances to make the team, more than most bubble players. It would be a surprise to me if he doesn't start the next couple of friendlies. Pope and Conrad. (Actually the few central defenders in camp point out that the core of that group is abroad.) And, yeah, the possibility of a late surprise, especially by your definition that doesn't include Mastro or Beasley as surprises last time, seems low. appoo above mentions Quaranta but I don't think of him as a surprise now, though Adu would qualify. But I don't think he'll make it either.
One point -- what is Berhalter's status? I personally don't think it is that good. Yes, he started a number of absolutely critical qualifiers. But look at why he started? First, Boca was benched by Fullham and his level dropped (it actually had been dropping for a while as he shuttled between left and central back). Second, Gibbs was hurt. Third, Pope was out of form. Without those events, I do not believe that Berhalter starts. On the other hand, these events can all easily be repeated. Boca could very well be benched or be shuttled out to left back again. Gibbs could recover slowly, and as rumours indicate, not get playing time. Pope could be old and done.
If onyewu and gibbs are fit, I think their athleticism is a must against 1st round foes. Bocanegra is rthe 3rd guy in the rotation. with berhalter and pope fighting it out.... given arena does like both of the two, I think it'll come down to who's playing and training better up till the last minute.... as to onyewu being big and heavy??? I'd take his mobility over pope and berhalter any day of the week right now... just because he's big does NOT make his less fleet
Arena HAS said that if healthy JOB is not only on the squad, but a starter.No idea if he's done the same with Gibbs, but wouldn't be surprised.Have to agree with Jager about Rolfe. When you watch him, he's just got it. Would be more surprised if he DOESN'T go than if he does.
I agree with the recent posts about rolfe... he might be the offense off the bench guy.... If o'brien is a starter, and arena goes with a pure d-mid, I do wonder who sits though
Re: The Pope v. Berhalter discussion Never underestimate Arena's ardor for former DCU players, particularly old and slowing players such as Pope. [See the 2002 WC roster for more information...] Unless Eddie Pope suffers a terrible injury or REFUSES to go, IMO, Pope is a mortal lock, despite his unfortunate loss of ability to time and to an accumulation of injuries. The TRUE battle, whether fair or not IMO, is between Berhalter and Bocanegra.
There's another very key point to make in Bocanegra's favor. He scores goals. In many cases, more than our forwards and our midfielders (Wolff, Convey, Casey, here's looking at you.) Boca is a beast on corners.
Martin, what you wrote here is part of what I've been trying to say all along. Although we have five-six central defenders who at times have looked very good (not even counting Marshall here) at this exact moment in time one guy stands above all the others and that one guy is Gooch. But what about the others? ALL have question marks which you stated above and I stated above that. All could fail to make the team. I feel it's getting past the time where the normal BS discourse of "who should go IMO" that we indulge in because the time is getting very close to picking the team. That lack of time means that injuries and periods of bad form will change Arena's mind. Injuries have already greatly hurt Armas', Casey's, and Mulrooney's chances. Probably killed them. We are getting away from picking a hypothetical ideal 23 like we have for almost four years now but we haven't really understood that yet. But we are starting to see Arena saying things that show he's changing his thinking mode. We also have Galacrep's last article that talks about a what if no Reyna or JOB scenario. Talking about no JOB and Reyna is relatively easy; it's been done a fair amount on BS lately. But we need to ask ourselves the same questions at other positions like here at central defense. Above you gave a good worst-case scenario for the central defender candidates. Great. That's what I'm pointing at too. That's why Boca isn't a lock in my book regardless of if hypothetically he's now better than Pope, that he plays in a better league than Pope, or what have you. As you say, Boca didn't have the best run of form last year. What if that continues? And I fully agree with Khan (Me? Surprise! It's true! ) above when he basically says that Arena has his favorites because in this case we are talking about maybe his all-time fave, Pope, who otherwise has not been looking good in a Nats uniform for awhile. Basically in case of a tie, Pope will win a spot on the team. Now he just needs to be healthy and play decently when he gets a chance. For what's it's worth I don't know if he's up to it either.
Skip, excellent post except agreeing with Khan. I still think he is useful even when his form is at its bottom, mainly because of his athleticism and his ability to play left back. It is possible he won't make it, but, for me, that possiblity is significantly lower than for Berhlater or Pope, whose worst case is being unable to perform at this level.
I believe Pope will go but I don't know how much he'll play. If his form bounces back it'll be because he deserves it, otherwise it will be as a good character veteran to round out the roster.
I see 5 spots as well, but quite differently. As Ursula states above, Arena has his favorites, and that weighs in on how I think the roster will be constructed. His is the ONLY vote that matters: The 5 open spots are (health permitting): 2 back-up Keepers 2 Forwards (likely one "Target" and one "not") 1 Mid-Fielder GK Keller is a obviously a mortal lock. I don't think Bruce has seen enough of any of the other guys directly and/or recently enough to say anyone else is a lock. Howard and Hannemann probably have the inside track, but any of the 4 guys in camp now, or Walker have their shot to impress. Defenders I think we have our 8 here: Starters: Cherundolo, Onyewu, Gibbs, Lewis Reserves: Hejduk (cover at both outside), Berhalter (Central), Bocanegra (Central, and LB cover), and Pope (Experience). Now, two (well probably more actually) things can still change the list. Pope can play himself off with a poor showing at camp and upcoming friendlies. If he shows himself to be dreadfully past his expiration date (I mean the "milk is solid" past) Arena will be forced to call in another central defender. Then it's a dogfight between Conrad/Marshall/Califf/Dunivant/Ihemelu/Spector for one spot. OR BA could reach back for another "experience" guy and bring in Vanney or the Ghost of Tony Sanneh Also Arena may not be sold on Lewis at LB. He's shown a willingness to experiment there (Had Hejduk ever played there prior to Portugal?)...but still. Convey and JOB (and Boca, above) can cover, but still... So, that opens up a need for another "true" LB. Then it's a battle between Albright, Pearce, and Spector for the open spot. Spector's apperance in both lists above make him attractive cover. Midfield Seven are set: Reyna, O'Brien, Donovan, Beasley, Mastroeni, Convey, and Ralston (yes, Ralston - I can't see him being left off at this point) I believe Dempsey has the best shot at taking a hold of the last spot. If Pablo, Reyna and JOB are all healthy, I hope BA does not see the need for another "Destroyer", but he very well may. If so Brian Carrol is likely for the open spot, with Clark a long shot. All the other guys in camp Quaranta, Noonan, Adu, Mapp, Martino, and Olsen are options here as well. Lastly, don't count out Cobi. Fowards Mcbride and Johnson are the likely starters. It's open season for the other two spots, with a fairly depressing list of candidates. Wolff can move closer with a few good showings. I guess the favorite for the last spot would be Ching as the other Target. Twellman, Rolfe, and Jacqua and Quaranta, Noonan, and Adu are still in it for this spot I guess. Maybe even Cunnigham, Gomez, I dunno...get/stay healthy GAM!