Outstanding. Repped. Okay, so as a TFC side, if I'm looking at this from a USA perspective, the chance of it being any specific combination of Germany-CSF-UEFA-USA is .8291, but since there are 16 different pairs of CSF/UEFA opponents, the chance of a general GER/CSF/UEFA/USA group is 16 x .8291, or 13.2656%. Then, any specific GER/OTH/UEFA/USA is .1535, but there are 48 such pairings (6 CAF/OFC x 8 UEFA), so 48 x .1535 is 7.368, so the chance we get Germany is 13.2656 plus 7.368, or 20.6336. This is confirmed by (and re-confirms) your matrix. Okay, I ran through the numbers because they confused me at first and I had a horribly confused analysis and plea for help, but on thorough review, the numbers make eminent sense, and they are actually quite beautiful. (Can I be any more of a nerd?)
One more thought I'll share before going to bed is that on other threads (sorry if I sound like a broken record to those reading all of them), I observed that USA's fortunes will depend far more on our non-seed Euro opponent than on our seed and "minnow" combined. This is because it is very likely that our seed will win, our minnow will finish 4th and we and the Euro will finish 2-3 or 3-2. Therefore, its better to get a strong seed and strong minnow and a weak Euro than to have a "weak" seed and a "weak" minnow and a strong Euro because that Euro will probably take second. The other reason this is true is that if our minnow is weak and we beat it for three points, in all likelihood the seed and the Euro will beat it as well. If our seed is Brazil and it beats us, it probably will beat the minnow and the Euro as well. The key is the nonseeded Euro, and I think that simulations based on ratings bear this out. Okay, I'm going to sleep now! Sorry if that all was either too obvious or impossible to follow . . . zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I can't believe Germany (by being in Group A) would through get itself roped into a 32% chance of drawing Paraguay and a 20% chance of drawing the US--arguably the two toughest teams from their respective pots. At least this tells me that the pre-draw rules aren't rigged.
I did a second analysis to see who was "hurt" by the draw rules - whether Serbia were victims and so on. Basically, I simulated a whole lot of draws (100,000 in fact) and the competition that followed - with the results of the matches determined "randomly" but based on FIFA ranks. Then I compared the probability of getting to the 2nd round with those ranks - the results themselves are meaningless, but the rankings of them are reasonably valid. Not surprisingly, even given the higher likelihood of getting Paraguay and USA in their group*, Germany got the biggest boost from the draw - a seed with a low FIFA rank. Other winners from the "restrictions" were: Brazil - avoid Paraguay in Pot 2, as do Argentina to a lesser extent. Ukraine and Switzerland also improve as do Trinidad and Mexico. The big losers included Iran, Paraguay and the Dutch. However, the US got the 2nd worst deal. The biggest loser of all - well it was Tunisia. Don't know why - could be just random noise or there could be a conspiracy at play we just can't see . My best guess would be it is because they are the highest CAF side and because of their pot are more likely to hit a good Euro team or 2 than would be the case if the pots were simply done by rank. Serbia were pretty much average. J * - so this unintended tweak to the draw actually makes it fairer!!!
Better late than never, here is my mock draw. Group A Germany, Tunisia, Czech Republic, Paraguay Group B Argentina, Togo, Poland, USA Group C France, Cote d'Ivoire, Netherlands, Ecuador Group D England, Ghana, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia Group E Italy, Angola, Trinidad & Tobago, Portugal Group F Brazil, Croatia, Serbia & Montenegro, Australia Group G Mexico, Iran, Japan, Switzerland Group H Spain, Korea Republic, Sweden, Costa Rica
I think we have a winner: FOUR groups that aren't possible! (Iran + Japan; Korea + Costa Rica; Cote d'Ivoire + Ecuador; Tunisia + Paraguay)
My mock draw: A - Germany, Paraguay, Croatia, South Korea B - England, Ivory Coast, Poland, Japan C - Spain, Australia, Sweden, USA D - Mexico, Togo, Portugal, Saudia Arabia E - Argentina, Ghana, Ukraine, Serbia & Montenegro F - Brazil, Tunisia, Holland, T & T G - Italy, Ecuador, Switzterland, Iran H - France, Angola, Czech Republic, Costa Rica
Better very late than never. Following the fifa rules as on their stupid pdf Group A Germany Czech Republic Japan Paraguay Group B England Ukraine Ecuador United States Group C Mexico Sweeden Iran Ghana Group D Spain Tunisia Republic Korea Netherlands Group E France Croaia Australia Saudi Arabia Group F Brazil Togo Trinidad and Tobago Poland Group G Italy Costa Rica Portugal Angola Group H Argentina Serbia and Monternegro Switzerland Ivory Coast
My predictions for the draw Group A Germany Ukraine Angola Trinidad Group B Spain Croatia Tunisia Saudia Arabia Group c Argentina-Czech-Togo-CRica Groupd-England-Switzerland-Paraguay-Japan GROUP E Italy-Holland-Ivory Coast-SKorea GROUP F Brazil-poland-ghana-iran GROUP G France-portugal-ecuador-usa grouph mexico sweden serbia australia
I hate it when people pose the same question in multiple places, but I feel I have to ask it in the relevant threads, and this looks like as good place as any. Why exactly did they draw the Concacaf sides out of Pot4 before the Asian ones? Of course, they drew Iran with Mexico, but otherwise it was Concacaf first. In other words, there seemed no possibility that the US had a chance at Groups F, G or H. And, it seemed, to me that the English announcer said that the US was going to Group E before they pulled the ball. Anyone know? The DrawRules here certainly seemed different than the DrawRules used.
They did not do that. e.g. an Asian side was drawn into Mexico's pot prior to the U.S. being drawn into group E. The rest was just the luck of the draw, unless you're a conspiracy theorist.
Yeah, I pointed out that I know Iran was drawn for Mexico, because they HAD to, but it certainly appeared they had two separate bowls, and the ESPN2 announcer distinctly said the US was going in Group E, before they had opened the ball. Did you watch the draw or not?
Don't know, but I repped someone whose mock draw included Italy, USA, and Czech Republic in the same group (and I believe in the same position).
Well ESPN2's coverage was so fricking lame it was difficult to hear anything - the audio was muffled - I don't know why they felt the urge to mix the studio commentators so much louder than the actual presenters. I wanted to hear the presenters, and could not see much value in anyone offering their two cents on anything until the draw was completely done. I do remember the commentator saying that the US would go into group E but that was just a guess at that point; we could have ended up anywhere in E - H after Iran was put into Mexico's group. After Serbia was put in Group B, CRC in Group A and T&T in group B, we could not obviously been put in group D, so we had to be E or later maybe that was what was trying to be said. I actually followed the draw on FIFA's draw thing on the internet and they actually screwed up France's group initially by mixing up Togo and Tunisia that was wierd. Anyway, how are we gonna make it through 6 months now that we can't talk about the draw anymore?
On 27th January there's the draw for the Euro2008 qualifying competition. Maybe Serbia will be in with Netherlands again? (etc. etc.)