Just saw this update about the House vs NCAA case. Settlement discussions are on going apparently. The NCAA and power conferences are in "deep discussions" to settle the House v. NCAA class action lawsuit, per ESPN's Pete Thamel and Dan Murphy, who report: "While sources stressed that no deal is imminent, details about what a multibillion-dollar settlement could look like are expected to be shared with campuses in the near future. There are myriad variables to get to the finish line and still some obstacles and objections at the campus level, but sources indicate that progress has ramped up in recent weeks. A settlement would provide some legal relief for a college sports industry that's been peppered by lawsuits. It could also serve as a keystone piece to formulating a more stable future. With the settlement expected to cost billions in back pay for former athletes, it would likely also require the NCAA and conferences to agree to a system for sharing more revenue with some of the players moving forward." https://www.espn.com/college-sports...-deep-talks-settle-nil-antitrust-case-vs-ncaa
Here’s another recent update. Alabama AD quoted about the loss of revenue, from paying athletes, affecting Olympic Sports. Paying college athletes appears closer than ever. How could it work and what stands in the way? https://apnews.com/article/ncaa-lawsuit-settlement-891f8252255048d8e5961c9b863175c3
In case you aren't paying close attention, the NCAA and the P4 conferences are going to get rocked this summer. Some of the figures are out as the settlement terms are now floating around Conf meetings and schools now. Coming from a proposed 60% cut in revenue distributions to schools - $20M maximum per school in Revenue Sharing per year to student athletes? with some kind of "opt in" for this model? Back compensation provided to those in the legal cases Expanded scholarship limits and roster sizes for revenue sports- assume for FB. Notably, not much mention of Title IX and impact on women's sports. The lawyer Kessler is quoted as basically letting the gender equity part of the settlement be determined by the courts at the school and/or conference level. As in some past financial crisis moments, its very likely the non-revenue men's sports are the most in jeopardy. NCAA could face $20B in damages, bankruptcy if proposed settlement offer isn't agreed upon https://sports.yahoo.com/docs-ncaa-...tlement-offer-isnt-agreed-upon-232315637.html
News about the settlement terms and conferences voting has made it to local papers now via the AP. There seems to be a deadline this week with the courts to agree to the framework of the current settlement terms but still TONS of questions. How far "down" D1 to the non P4 teams and conference will the payments go (or reduced revenue distributions). Will FCS and even non-football schools be adversely affected? The entire gender equity issue looks unresolved if not even considered much by this settlement. Already hearing AD's start to make statements about significant budget tightening. Examples paraphrased: If I was expecting 50M in revenue over the next 3 years and now that is lowered to 30M, then there will be cuts coming somewhere. Another one said something like, if I have an 80M budget and now have to pay athletes 20M from that, then there will be big reductions coming and I'm not even sure how to do that at this point. Do not be surprised if some conferences start talking about major reductions to non-revenue sports. Individual sports like swimming, golf, tennis, track, could all start to become non-scholarship or even just club sports at some places. Cuts will not be coming to P4 FB and BB when AD's will NEED that revenue more than ever. Buckle up folks! Crazy 24-25 coming.
What I saw is that the current proposal being voted on puts 40% of the cost on Power 4 conferences and 60% all the other conferences.
Lots of news about the P4s signing on to the settlement outline but still way more questions than answers about how to implement this change and who will be affected. Spoke with some p4 folks and no one has a clue really. Will be interesting summer. I did find one commentary that seemed reassuring. An "everything will be okay" take below. For the record, I believe only 1 D1 school has announced actual cuts of programs for next year and that was Loyola Marymount and months ago. College sports will prosper still if ‘pay-for-play’ becomes reality https://www.ajc.com/sports/michael-...y-becomes-reality/KDX4U2VSIBBENC5MQRNNNBYNME/
Once these schools start paying the players directly won't that transform the relationship where the NCAA would need to be officially sanctioned as a division 1, 2, or 3 league?
@Eddie K That was an interesting read. One thing that caught my eye was this quote: "They can start by cutting the fat from their athletics departments, then shift payments from their less valuable employees to the athletes who drive the revenue." That, to me, means potentially cutting sports and who knows what/who else. It will also be interesting to see how this affects Title IX and some other pieces. Yes, college sports may continue but I think it will be a very different beast.
There is so much up in the air at this point that it is impossible to make predictions about the future of college sports with any degree of accuracy. For example, what will Congress do? Is it possible that there will be college team payroll caps? Will there be roster size limits and, if so, how severe will they be? For example, if there were roster size limits for D1 women's soccer of, say, 24 players, it actually might distribute talent more evenly among teams and, to some extent, increase parity. I think that actually is a pretty appropriate number for a team.
24 is way too low. That’s a full field 11v11 scrimmage with two subs. Counting in injuries which there always a few…you’re never scrimmaging 11v11? And then in the spring when you lose 4-6 seniors…you are down to 17 or 18 players? 30 is realistic. Sports will be cut. It is coming.
The only question is what questions are you most interested in! Cuts- No doubt there are ADs that want to make cuts and will have a reason. Like any business, evaluate and cut the unprofitable divisions. I speculated earlier that some individual sports, for example, might move to club status. Could an entire conference decide to demote or just cut sports and collectively defend it? There is some "tiering" of sports in conferences already. Alumni and donors will make a lot of noise- recall the pandemic cuts at Stanford among others. There were lawsuits and judgements to reinstate sports some places. Pay- I can't believe that freshmen football players are just going to get 5 and 6 figure payments over and above the full-cost they get now (and now NIL goodies). Are they? Another speculation is that there will be some limits and some use of annuities. Future payments and benefits like health care extending over years. These can be financed like retirement benefits are. Sooo many questions.
National Championship roster sizes in the 21st Century: 2023 Florida State 21 2022 UCLA 35 2021 Florida State 24 2020 Santa Clara 26 2019 Stanford 25 2018 Florida State 24 2017 Stanford 26 2016 Southern California 29 2015 Penn State 27 2014 Florida State 21 2013 UCLA 33 2012 North Carolina 33 2011 Stanford 26 2010 Notre Dame 25 2009 North Carolina 31 2008 North Carolina 33 2007 Southern California NA 2006 North Carolina 28 2005 Portland 22 2004 Notre Dame 30 2003 North Carolina 29 2002 Portland 19 2001 Santa Clara 22 2000 North Carolina 27 Average, if my math is right: ~25.5