Pre-match: Can't believe it took this long for this thread, the 2024 Presidential election thread!

The NYT/Siena pollster says Biden is leading among those who voted in 2020. I think it goes without saying that given the age demographics, more Republicans have died since then, and more Democrats have turned 18.

Trump’s only in the race because he’s doing well with disengaged voters, who are also low information voters. So either Biden needs a low turnout election, or, he needs to convince those disengaged voters that the economy is doing awesome.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/...e_code=1.uU0.Ij4h.qZUvp7tZJxuS&smid=url-share

 

Other options are either convincing them not to vote, or not giving them a reason to vote. They are the exact kind of people that make up non-voters, after all.

 

I don't know if Trump will get 50% of the hispanic vote (I am very doubtful though) but I will bet my bottom $$ that he will not get 15% of the black vote. Not a chance!

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/25/opinions/trump-guilty-verdict-2024-vote-mellman/index.html says that people are incapable of predicting how they will act in a hypothetical, such as if Trump is convicted. For example, in January 1998, 55 percent of people said Clinton should be impeached if he lied under oath, and 58 percent said that if he is impeached, he should resign rather than having a Senate trial. After everybody knew he lied under oath, 30 percent of people supported impeachment, and the president's party did better than usual in a midterm. Republicans kept a 55-45 Senate majority, but Republican Al D'Amato lost to now-Majority Leader Schumer, and Democrats gained 5 House seats. People rarely change their mind about politics, which is bad news for Biden who trails in polls.

I'm not saying he will get 15 percent of the Black vote that way, but what percent do you think he would get if he chooses a Black as VP? Senator Tim Scott, Representative Byron Donalds, and Ben Carson are considered the most likely Blacks for him to pick.

 

[QUOTE="EvanJ, post: 42238193, member: 38757"

I'm not saying he will get 15 percent of the Black vote that way, but what percent do you think he would get if he chooses a Black as VP? Senator Tim Scott, Representative Byron Donalds, and Ben Carson are considered the most likely Blacks for him to pick.[/QUOTE]

Fair question, he will get the same % was the last time, 11 or 12%, worst case, 13% of the AA vote.
Black people will not be bamboozled by a Tim Soott or Ben Carson as VP.

 

Trump is speaking at the libertarian convention and they are booing him hard.

 

I hear you but that same story was told in 2020, 22 and 23 and the GOP / Trump gains with black voters specifically have been marginal at best. There is no elections data to support this significant shift so far (a 10 or 20 % shift that is).

 

I don't know about that.

In the 2020 presidential election in Ohio the split for black voters was 91-8 in favor of Biden.

In the 2022 governor election in Ohio the split for black voters was 67-32 in favor of the Democrat, while the Senate was 86-13 (JD Vance getting the 13).

Recent polling for the 2024 presidential election in Ohio shows the following for black voters:
FAU poll (March 16): Biden 62.1%, Trump 26.8%
Survey USA poll (March 14): Biden 66%, Trump 18%
Emerson poll (March 13): Biden 72.2%, Trump 18.5%


Obviously the Governor and Senate elections in the midterm are not Presidential elections, but Ohio black voters did vote in much higher numbers for Republicans in 2022. The numbers for the 2024 presidential election from the three polls I looked at fall inside the range for the 2022 elections, suggesting there is a significant shift of 10-20% in Ohio. Of course, the question then becomes is Ohio representative of other states?

 

As you said governor elections can't be compared to Presidential ones. I will use the JD Vance number as the benchmark. I do not expect Trump to get significant bump from there. A poll showing him at 26% of AA voters is totally ridiculous in my views. I would love to se the cross tabs there, likely the have a sample of 20 black voters for it. It is totally off.

 

I just looked up North Carolina using similar sources as I used before (CNN exit polls for 2020 and 2022 and a recent Bloomberg poll that I accessed via 270towin for North Carolina) and it is also showing roughly a 10 point increase in Trump/Republican support from 2020 to 2024.


edit: And if you are willing to use the JD Vance number, which showed a 5% increase from 2020 to 2022, is it that difficult to think there has been a further 5% increase from 2022 to 2024? That would make a 10% shift, which is what two of the polls are showing (the 18 and 18.5% ones; I agree the 26% seems much too high, but it is the outlier compared to the other 2 polls - and just for the record, that poll had a sample of 63 black voters).

 

I am talking about elections data not various polls....we have not had any elections yet in 2024 showing a 10 pt increase in NC or for that matter I the country at large. If that ever happen, we can have this conversation. Until then, I do not give any credence to that.
PS. A poll of 63 black people showing a 26% for TFG should be automatically discarded by a serious pollster as a massive outlier.

 

It's heavily edited. However, I mentioned before that she pulled this in 16 and 20. I don't even live in her district but I'll fund a primary challenger that has a chance of ousting her. She's nothing more than a clown.

 

When I saw that name, Richard Hanania, I recognized him as a right wing provocateur. He’s no rando on twitter. Believe him at your own risk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Hanania

 

He seems to have walked away from his earlier white supremacist beliefs. Largely because they’re bad politics, not because they’re morally reprehensible and entirely founded on delusions.

 

Pundits love that kind of crap, because it’ll never happen. So if Biden wins, everyone forgets, and if he loses, they get to say I told you so for four years.

We see the same thing around here, with all the catastrophizing, so hey he’s only human like the rest of us.