Every day, I give thanks that my kids weren't college-level athletes. Actually not even too sad that they weren't high school players.
I wouldn't doubt it. I would not count anyone out who is pursuing their thing. But its impossible to predict the path of any one player. Just too many moving variables. And so much competition.
This is good advice. While somewhat dated, my oldest son played a couple of years in an Academy Program in late high school fifteen years ago. They had a good team and three of his teammates had been part of the US Youth Program. Marc Pelosi was one of his teammates who went on to play for Liverpool youth teams and MLS, but retiring after never fully recovering from an injury suffered at Liverpool. This was prior to MLS Academies and more youth players going to USL. There was two tier of players on the team: those who were on the path to college and those who could go straight to pro's at some level. It didn't mean that the college kids wouldn't make pro's (another teammates plays for the Oakland Roots in USL), but it was a just a longer/different path. So, it depends. What will be your son's goals after soccer? Does he want to stay in the sport? How realistic are his chances? Most players will level off at some point. My son leveled off at 16 (didn't have the mental side) and ended up not playing college (he had some limited opportunities at non-D1 schools). In the end, he was interested in the competition and attention, but didn't really love the sport.
This is understandable. My oldest son has a tough time with the competition and process and it impacted his mental health through college and post-college. His brother had a great experience as walk-on and ended up playing/starting fours years of D1 Football. Dealing with money, parents, coaches, etc. You need to be prepared for all kinds of outcomes.
If your goal is to pro, then its best to try it first. If you fail you can always do college and then try pro again. Unfortunately it seems that college is becoming less of a good route to pros though. It seems that a decade ago it was a more decent route, and there were more routes in general that didn't go pro academy --> pro first team. Look at the 30 something MLS guys and they were from all over. Gyasi Zardes played at Cal State Bakersfield. Christian Ramirez played NAIA then USL then NASL with Minnesota United FC, which then became a MLS team and kept Ramirez who then scored the team's first ever MLS goal. Fast forward a few more years and he's an MLS champion with Columbus Crew in his 30s. Will we ever see a path like that again? I highly doubt it. Now it seems that the path to pro in the USA is trending to mirror the same pathway that Europe uses, which is namely pro academy to first team, with maybe some loans here and there, or signing the player and then selling him to another pro team. With MLS Next and all of their various tournaments, and what looks like a trend in homegrown contracts... it seems to be the new pathway for most players, which I think is kind of unfortunate.
One more good example: Will and James Sands. I would rather have my son take the Will Sands route, going to Georgetown first, even though James Sands has been on the national team and played briefly in Scotland and is now a highly paid player. But if my son still loves soccer and wants to trial first, I'll support him, as long as it doesn't affect scholarships.
The recent NCAA ruling will definitely affect college soccer in some way, especially because college soccer doesn't generate revenue. More scholarships / smaller rosters? Cut programs? Will parents be as willing now to pump so much money into youth soccer?
do you think it’ll affect D1/D2 only or will it have a trickle down effect on D3 as well? I wonder if more talented kids will try to go D1/D2 for $ especially at big programs or will they flock to D3 instead.