The On-going Never-ending Brexit Story Part Four

They directed the press to the wrong location. Twice.

 

The gift that just keeps giving. This has to be deliberate

Press photo from his flight to NI.

Seriously, though. His handlers really, *really* hate him, don’t they? pic.twitter.com/C6eSV3Mbi3

— Nick Pettigrew (@Nick_Pettigrew) May 24, 2024

 

Day 1 - Stand in the rain looking a twat
Day 2 - Ask Welsh fans if they’re looking forward to the Euros
Day 3 - Stand in the Titanic Quarter

Fuck me he is epically dense
pic.twitter.com/Wvr9MZHC8C

— JPC (@jpxan71) May 24, 2024

 

Michael Gove standing down. There's going to be nobody left to laugh at when they lose other than Rees-Mogg.

 

Sunak: where am I going tomorrow?

Comms team: pic.twitter.com/tSHbAVHMNO

— Robin Flavell (@RobinFlavell) May 24, 2024

 

3 polls since election announced

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 44% (+1)
CON: 27% (=)
RFM: 10% (-1)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @Moreincommon_, 22-23 May.
Changes w/ 17-19 May.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) May 23, 2024

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 19% (-2)
RFM: 14% (+2)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 5% (-1)

Via @techneUK, 22-23 May.
Changes w/ 15-16 May.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) May 23, 2024

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 47% (+1)
CON: 22% (-1)
RFM: 12% (+1)
LDM: 8% (=)
GRN: 6% (-2)
SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @wethinkpolling, 23-24 May.
Changes w/ 16-17 May.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) May 24, 2024

 

That's now 76 Tories running away:

– Adam Afriyie
– Nickie Aiken
– Lucy Allan
– Stuart Andrew
– Richard Bacon
– John Baron
– Sir Paul Beresford
– Sir Graham Brady
– Steve Brine
– Lisa Cameron
– Andy Carter
– Sir Bill Cash
– Jo Churchill
– Greg Clark
– Chris Clarkson
– Dame Tracey Crouch
– Dehenna Davison
– Jonathan Djanogly
– Sir James Duddridge
– Philip Dunne
– Sir Michael Ellis
– George Eustice
– Sir David Evennett
– Mike Freer
– Nick Gibb
– Jo Gideon
– Michael Gove
– Sir Robert Goodwill
– Chris Grayling
– James Grundy
– Robert Halfon
– Stephen Hammond
– Matt Hancock
– Trudy Harrison
– Sir Oliver Heald
– James Heappey
– Chris Heaton-Harris
– Gordon Henderson
– John Howell
– Alister Jack
– Sir Sajid Javid
– David Jones
– Sir Greg Knight
– Kwasi Kwarteng
– Dame Eleanor Laing
– Pauline Latham
– Sir Brandon Lewis
– Tim Loughton
– Craig Mackinlay
– Theresa May
– Stephen McPartland
– Huw Merriman
– Kieran Mullan
– Sir Bob Neill
– Matthew Offord
– Mark Pawsey
– Sir Mike Penning
– Andrew Percy
– Will Quince
– Dominic Raab
– Sir John Redwood
– Nicola Richards
– Douglas Ross
– Paul Scully
– Sir Alok Sharma
– Chloe Smith
– Henry Smith
– Royston Smith
– Bob Stewart
– Sir Gary Streeter
– Edward Timpson
– Sir Charles Walker
– Robin Walker
– Ben Wallace
– Jamie Wallis
– Craig Whittaker
– Nadhim Zahawi

 

More polls from yougov polls on demographics.

Mega-poll mega-thread/ How does voting intention look as the campaign kicks off?

First up: age. Age will once again be a key factor in how people vote, and currently Labour are ahead among every age group except the over-70s

Labour / Tory vote by age group
18-24: 57% / 8%… pic.twitter.com/5QDkP1hvvB

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 24, 2024

Education level is also a key factor in voting intention – those with more education qualifications are more likely they are to vote Labour/a left wing party

Low (GCSE or below): 35% Lab / 28% Con (+22% Ref UK)
Medium: 43% Lab / 22% Con
High (degree or above): 55% Lab / 13% Con… pic.twitter.com/SAHl8f1l2w

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 24, 2024

How are men and women intending to vote?

Lab: 44% men / 47% women
Con: 19% men / 20% women
Reform UK: 15% men / 10% women
Lib Dem: 9% men / 9% women
Green: 6% men / 9% womenhttps://t.co/yGSFGduVE0 pic.twitter.com/x5N4I3PwNP

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 24, 2024

Class is no longer one of the strong predictors of whether someone intends to vote Conservative or Labour

AB: 50% Lab / 18% Con
C1: 46% Lab / 19% Con
C2: 42% Lab / 22% Con
DE: 42% Lab / 22% Conhttps://t.co/yGSFGduVE0 pic.twitter.com/WorIuq3rUq

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 24, 2024

According to our VI merge from 3-21 May, the Conservatives are holding on to only 49% of their 2019 vote, compared to 83% for Labour.

26% of 2019 Tory voters now say they intend to back Reform UK, while another 16% are going to Labourhttps://t.co/yGSFGduVE0 pic.twitter.com/RHCfbjLMDc

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 24, 2024

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1793975197328105745

 

Here is a thread on why the UK in terms of age is one of the most polarised in the world

NEW: we often talk about an age divide in politics, with young people much less conservative than the old.

But this is much more a British phenomenon than a global one.

40% of young Americans voted Trump in 2020. But only 10% of UK under-30s support the Conservatives. Why? pic.twitter.com/XJYqkUF62T

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) February 9, 2024

 

Goving

Goving

Gone

 

Add Andrea Leadsom to the list.
Make a phrase out of the following words:

Sinking
A
Deserting
Rats
Ship

 

Laughable.

I think Michael Gove will go down as one of the 10 or so most significant political figures since 1945. One of the ablest, too.

— Gabriel Milland (@gabrielmilland) May 24, 2024

 

At this rate, I'm going to have wasted a day's holiday taking 5th July off.

 

🚨 NEW: Senior Tories expect a lot more MPs will stand down over the weekend

[@Peston]

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) May 24, 2024

 

I’m a Yank so correct me if I’m wrong.

The system there is completely different in that candidates and the party have to agree who is going to run where.

What’s been happening lately in this thread is counting Tories who have opted out.

As a practical matter, won’t they just go further down their list of potentials to fill out the list? What I’m asking is, this doesn’t directly affect who is going to win the election, it’s just evidence the Conservatives believe they’re in for an historic pasting so it’s better to refuse to run than run and get your ass kicked, right?

 

Technically it's down to the local party association in each constituency who runs for them, but sometimes the central party will determine the candidate or provide a small list to choose from. There isn't usually an automatic backup, especially for sitting MPs who are rarely subject to a primary - once you get a very safe seat you usually have a job for life (for example, whoever gets Theresa May's seat in Maidenhead is highly unlikely to ever lose). Usually they would give their local party sufficient notice to determine a suitable replacement, but we're not in usual times here.

It's not going to make a difference here, although in a close election it could. Historically, incumbents often get a slight boost in polling, but this government is so unpopular it could possibly give a new candidate a (very small) boost by not being directly associated with them. Likely, it just means a different face gets the bad news on the night. Traditionally the parties, especially the Tories, would blood new prospective candidates in unwinnable seats to test their commitment and campaigning (Rees-Mogg had to do the rounds in Scotland in 1997 when Labour would win if they put up a dead person).

 

So, parties practice promotion and relegation even for candidates for political office.

 

Yes, historically they have. More recently prospective candidates tend to serve as an assistant to an existing MP, especially in Labour, as their route in and bypass the "proving".

 

At this stage, it would not surprise me in the least if I woke up on Monday to a letter on Sunak’s account saying what “a huge honour” it’s been to represent his constituents and that he moved out of No10 during the night and nobody can find him. ~AA https://t.co/x60fb6qccV

— Best for Britain (@BestForBritain) May 24, 2024

 

It just gets better and better

🚨 BREAKING: Rishi Sunak will take a day off campaigning tomorrow to regroup with his aides in a highly unusual move so early on in the election campaign

[@guardian]

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) May 24, 2024

 

We've got another 41 days of this carnage. Starmer just needs to avoid falling in the sea or calling someone a bigot and he's home and dry.

 

They would do if the party hadn't been gutted by 6/7 straight local election defeats which have shredded their candidate pipeline.

 

He could be caught in bed with a live boy and a dead girl, plus Maradona and 1kg of blow, and Labour would still win in a landslide.

 

A front page of two halves.

They know what's coming

 

Even if that was the way they do it, with the closing date for nominations being June 7th and the election called out of the blue a lot of those "potentials" are out of the country on business or, if they have college kids, on holiday with family this week and incommunicado for the constituency party and party HQ.

Call it "Rishi Sunak just isn't very good at politics: episode 3,743"