2026 WC USA (et al): Worldwide Opponents Watch [all R's]

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by TimB4Last, Mar 27, 2023.

  1. Sebsasour

    Sebsasour Member+

    New Mexico United
    May 26, 2012
    Albuquerque NM
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Keylor Navas ends his NT career for Costa Rica. Interesting he didn't want to go for one last hurrah in The Copa America

     
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  2. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Despite all of our great American keepers, one should make the case that Navas is the best keeper in the history of CONCACAF. Best of luck to him in retirement. We'll be happy to see the back of him. :)

    His trophy cabinet at the club level is insane.

    He started in four Champions League finals alone. Winning three.

    [And by the way, he even led Saprissa to a CCL title and a 3rd place finish at the Club World Cup. 2ne best finish ever after Tigres in 2020.]

    And, of course, he had his moments on the biggest of stages. Costa Rica at the 2014 World Cup.
     
  3. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    My updated CONCACAF Ranking



     
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  4. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    My Americas Ranking



     
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  5. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don’t think there’s any question in terms of him being the best CONCACAF goalie ever.
     
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  6. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    You would think so.

    ................but there are Mexico fans who will stump for Antonio Carbajal.

    Just a different era. It really is apples & oranges.

    Antonio was recognized by the IFFHS as the top CONCACAF keeper of the 20th century.
    Actually, blew away everyone else in the voting.
     
  7. KALM

    KALM Member+

    Oct 6, 2006
    Boston/Providence
    I had to look up who that was.

    I think at the very least then everyone can agree Navas is the best CONCACAF keeper of the last 50 years.
     
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  8. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    He's #1, I don't think there's any question at all. I wonder why he decided to not play in Copa America? Does he want the kids to have a chance of prep before the WC in 2 years, or is it more, just tired of national team soccer and ready to retire in general?
     
  9. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    First thing that sticks out immediately is Chile's overranking. Chile is beyond donezo. As an example, they wrapped up 2022 WC Qualifying with losses in 4 of their last 5 matches with everything on the line. In their first 5 matches of 2026 WC Qualifying they've won 1 match. and sit in 8th place, just 2 points above moribund Bolivia (zero qualifications for the WC since USA '94 and perennial cellar dweller), maybe they did better at Copa America '21? Nope. They stunk there too, winning 1 match of 5 against, you guessed it, craptacular Bolivia, 1-0 (credit to them that they did manage to draw Argentina and Uruguay, damn good accomplishments).....but the evidence is pretty compelling at this point, in their past 15 matches against Conmebol foes in qualifying and the Copa America they've managed to win 3 matches. For Conmebol, they've officially entered punching bag territory. Their golden generation circa 2010-2018 has retired and the next guys up simply aren't that good, much like Paraguay's decline after their 1998 to 2010 or 2014 run (I forget which) Chile is now in sharp decline too.

    Currently I'd rank Conmebol:
    Tier 1:
    1.Uruguay
    2.Argentina
    3.Colombia
    4.Brazil

    Tier 2:
    5. Ecuador
    6. Venezuela

    Tier 3:
    7. Paraguay
    8. Chile
    9. Peru

    Hot Garbage:
    10. Bolivia


    In fairness to Brazil, they started qualifying horribly which is why they are 4th, but it seems like they might be waking up, if they are, we all know they can shoot up to #1 without a second thought.

    I struggle to tell where Ecuador fits, at times they feel right there with Colombia and Uruguay, at other times they clearly show they are a bit on the struggle bus for the consistency of teams like Uruguay and Colombia when it comes to playing and beating the big dogs at the Copa America and WC, so for now I put Ecuador a tier below, and Venezuela, in their current form, definitely seem like the last of the high performing conmebol sides.

    How to rank concacrap sides during our worst form in eons in comparison? The US is weird because there's the talent piece, which would seem to sit us somewhere around 4th or 5th, and then there's the performance piece, that's probably more deserving of 5th or 6th. El Tri is hot garbage right now, the worst Mexico has been in my lifetime of watching (late eighties), and that makes them a tier 3 side for me, below Venezuela and Ecuador but probably above the trio of Paraguay, Chile and Peru. Canada fell off post WC, w/a new coach, I'd slide them in around Ecuador and Venezuela. Everyone else in the region is differing levels of garbage, with Panama and Jamaica probably the best of them.

    When you look at concacrap right now you have:
    Tier 1:
    1.USA
    Enormous Chasm
    Tier 2:
    2. Canada
    3. Mexico
    4. Panama

    Then you have the perennials: Costa Rica, Honduras, usually Jamaica, and nouveau riche Panama. Costa Rica and Honduras are in the midst of rebuilds, Jamaica is a mess at the fed and a mess at integrating dual nats and domestics, they can produce nice results but no consistency, if it wasn't for the prat fall in the Gold Cup Final last summer, I'd have Panama ahead of Mexico, but they choked, so for now, Panama stays in this next tier of crap, I'd probably rate it:

    Tier 3:
    4. Panama
    5. Jamaica
    6. Costa Rica
    7. Honduras

    As you can tell, I can't decide if Panama belongs in tier 2 or not.

    Anyway: What do I expect in the tournament?

    Group A:
    1.Argentina
    2.Canada
    3.Chile
    4. Peru
    Argentina wins this easy as hell. Canada can take runner up so long as they don't choke. Chile and Peru stink right now so there's no excuse, but w/a coaching change and general instability, who knows?


    Group B:
    1.Ecuador
    2.Mexico
    3. Venezuela
    4. Jamaica
    I think Venezuela is better than Mexico, in fact, I'm almost positive they are, however, Mexico is playing at home, and Venezuela probably won't have a ton of supporters, those games will be in Texas (hot bed of El Tri support), Arizona (hot bed of El Tri support) and in the bay area where as we saw during their brawling in Santa Clara at a recent friendly (or Gold Cup match? Can't remember), El Tri has no problem bringing in travelling fans. So Mexico basically we'll enjoy home field advantage for all 3 matches. Probably the only piece of good news for Venezuela, is that they'll get the Bay Area match with Mexico, I think the Texas and Arizona matches will be even more intensely partisan, but we'll see. For now, I'd pick Venezuela to beat Mexico at a neutral, but it isn't, so I think they finish behind Mexico (fingers crossed they beat them anyway).

    Group C:
    1.Uruguay
    2.USA
    3.Panama
    4. Bolivia
    I have Uruguay as the #1 team in Conmebol right now, so no chance I can pick them as runner ups to the US. The weird thing about the match is two fold: #1 is that its matchday 3, and sometimes teams rest guys for yellows if they know they're through and this group should be a 2 horse race, so both could easily be through on 6 points at this point. #2 its at a weird site: Kansas City, so the US should have heavy home field advantage here (compare that to Uruguay's other matches, in Miami and New York/New Jersey: I can definitely see fans for those, but traveling to freaking KC? Hell no...but maybe the site doesn't matter).

    Group D:
    1.Brazil
    2.Colombia
    3.Jamaica
    4.Paraguay

    Much like C, it's easy as pie to pick the 2 advancing teams here, it's just picking the winner that's a bit difficult. I'll go with Brazil who I think are figuring things out but it wouldn't shock me at all if Colombia locks this down.

    Sets up for knockouts of:
    Argentina vs Mexico (feels like the billionth time they've played: Confed Cup '05, WC '06, WC '10, WC '22, now this)

    Canada vs Ecuador: Nice test of athleticism and pace.

    Brazil vs USA: Oh ----.

    Uruguay vs Colombia: Oh YEAH!!! (they had an epic qualifier back in October featuring a back and forth game that ended with a Darwin Nunez equalizer in injury time for a 2-2 draw).


    Definitely seems set for Argentina vs one of Brazil, Uruguay or Colombia in the final. Argentina's side of the bracket is pretty cake w/only 1 team I'd rank in the top 5 of the team's I have at Copa America.
     
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  10. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    Hmmm, it's weird, looked him up, clearly had the lock down on the GK position for them for a very long time, but its hard as hell figuring out just how good he was when he played in the forties, fifties and sixties. I tend to think you need blatantly obvious data/reports etc to back up an argument to beat out a guy like Navas who was just flat out absurd the past 15 years or so, and I don't see any Gordon Banks saves so I'm gonna go with Navas (I'm sure there were some that were epic). I wonder if there's any good footage of him available.
     
  11. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Its like comparing Johnny Unitas to Tom Brady.

    Just different eras.

    We can't say "but Carbajal didn't play on Champions League teams like Navas!!"

    Players from the Western Hemisphere didn't do that type of thing in that era. Not even the elite Brazilians.
    And the Champions League was in its early existence.

    But anyway, all I'm saying is that's a name you hear a lot in the "best GKs in the history of CONCACAF" argument.
    Carbajal played in 5 World Cups.

    The list of players who played in 5 World Cups is a very short list..............and he's the only keeper.
    Ronaldo, Messi, and Andres Guardado just joined the list.

    [Ochoa was in the squad for Mexico in 5 World Cups, but only actually played in 3]

    As we know, the leader for the USMNT in World Cup tournaments played is DeMarcus Beasley at 4.
    Reyna was on 4 rosters, but only played in 3 (didn't play in 94).
     
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  12. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Beasley definitely would have gone to five World Cups if we had qualified in 2018. But that wouldn’t have made him the best at his position in the history of CONCACAF.
     
  13. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    No, of course not. Different era. 50 years from now somebody will be talking about best USMNT players of all time. Someone will mention Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey. Then another poster will say "yeah, but they didn't win any Universe Cups or World Super league trophies." Someone will have to remind them that the Universe Cup and World Super League didn't exist in 2006. So how do you compare?

    Carbajal was legitimately the best CONCACAF keeper of the 20th century by a mile.

    And one can google "top goalkeepers in the history of CONCACAF," and he's still very high up on lists.
     
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  14. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Yes Chile is MASSIVELY overrated and that immediately stuck out to me as well.
     
  15. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    #1690 Suyuntuy, May 24, 2024
    Last edited: May 24, 2024
    Right now I think we're clearly a Top 20 team and at home for Copa we should make semis.

    Brazil is a giant with mud feet. The only way we lose to them is if our players go out trying not to lose. Only Argentina is clearly better, while Uruguay and Colombia are close games when we have the home advantage.

    I'm not a homer. I follow international soccer religiously. For all the talk about Senegal and Japan impressing, I think right now we're stronger. Actually, at home, I doubt there are more than half a dozen teams who should be favorites against our A-team*, at this point.

    I just hope we're not peaking too early.

    ----
    * We don't have much of a bench though. Some guys are irreplaceable: pre-injury Adams, Matt Turner (who plays fairly well for the NT, and after him --for the NT-- there is a big dip); Pulisic and Weah, no matter what they do for club; McKennie, our main central engine; Jedi, were he not there, we'd have a big hole at LB; Dest, who for all his defensive limitations is vital in creating chances for the NT on the right.

    We're going to miss Ream.
     
  16. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    It's a problem our playoff game is against either Colombia or Brazil.

    We should be able to beat Brazil and should be even with Colombia, but the psych factor facing Brazil is going to be huge.
     
  17. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    Absolutely no reason to believe that we are level above everyone in Concacaf. We arguably #1, and that should be proved.
     
  18. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    #1693 vancity eagle, May 24, 2024
    Last edited: May 24, 2024
    You do sound pretty arrogant.

    "Only way we lose to Brazil"

    Yeah those are the words of a Homer. Pretty sure there are plenty of ways you lose to Brazil.

    Yeah I don't think you are stronger than either Japan or Senegal.

    Remind me what the US and Japan did against Germany recently.

    Also let's see the US beat Brazil by 2 goals in your upcoming friendly if you really think you are better than Senegal.

    I think you are correct about your top 20 status, but let's not push it.
     
  19. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    My ranking has the tendency to react to recent performances and results. It puts emphasis on current form. I didn't rate Chile either until the March window.
    In March they left their mark by beating Albania comfortably and going toe to toe against France away. These performances made them earn a +3 upgrade. Previously I evaluated them to be on the same level as Paraguay (77).
    My ranking system is super dynamic. There's pros and cons to it. I think the pros outweigh the cons though.

    It remains to be seen whether they can transfer that form shown in March to competitive games.
     
  20. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Na man your rating has no consistency.

    So Chile (who has been absolute shi$ for over 2 years) all of a sudden is ranked above African champs Ivory Coast just because they lost a close game to France, yet Ivory Coast beat Uruguay (one of the hottest teams in the world at the moment)

    Pure joke sorry.

    Super dynamic yet teams like South Korea (who had a very poor Asian Cup) are still ranked highly.

    You're all over the place. That's why rankings with no formula aren't going to be very accurate.
     
  21. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    #1696 Kamtedrejt, May 25, 2024
    Last edited: May 25, 2024
    Ivory Coast have been good since only like 8-9 months. And they are yet to prove that they can play consistently on a high level. They lost 4-0 to Equatorial Guinea at AFCON on home soil for God sake. Ivory Coast are much higher ranked by me than they are by FIFA or ELO. Really don't get what's your issue with my 79.5 rating for Ivory Coast.

    Chile convinced me in March. They beat my beloved Albania 3-0. The last team to beat us this decisively was England.....They took the game to France and scored a beatutifully worked out team goal and hit also the post. They could/should have drawn that game. Against FRANCE AWAY. Chile have a couple upcoming talents. They are not finished. 2 games is a small sample size but based on these two games they are at least on the same level as the USA. The USA have stagnated since the World Cup. The overall level in CONCACAF is low at the moment. I watched all of the latest CONCACAF Nations League finals. The USA-Mexico final was such an underwhelming game. Part of the reason why USA has become CONCACAF's standalone flagship team (previously it was them and Mexico together) is that CONCACAF has declined.

    South Korea are a quality side. They made the round of 16 of the last World Cup and teams who did that unless they perform like hot garbage now can't drop under a certain rating threshold. South Korea's Asian Cup was a mixed bag. The group stage and the semi-final was horrible. But they managed to beat two other fellow big five nations in Saudi Arabia and Australia. All in all it wasn't a good tournament for them. So what. The AFC is on the rise. The AFC is starting to build more depth.

    We had a contest for a very short time. Do you remember? My ranking was in terms of predicting close games accurately so vastly superior to your's that I lost motivation to continue the contest.

    Here you can find the contest: (starting post #368 lasting until post #411)
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/alternative-world-rankings-thread.2092151/page-15

    My ranking is the best ranking in the world for national teams. Better than FIFA. Better than ELO. Better than your's.
    I'm yet to come across a better ranking. And that is me objectively speaking. I vouch for my ranking.
     
  22. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Dude you are all over the place.

    You said CIV have only been good for 8 or 9 months.

    Yet Chile have been crap for over 2 years and only been somewhat decent this past window.

    Sorry but beating Albania and losing to France is nothing to write home about. Look at their results over the past 2 years.

    Absolutely horrific. But we should forget all of that because of 2 friendlies where they lost 1 and beat Albania. You cannot be serious.
     
  23. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    Deluded. USA is not a top 20 NT

    More like top 30
     
  24. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Chile

    Elo 40
    FIFA 42
    My ranking 49 (My ranking even tends to overrate 2nd tier Conmebol teams)

    Kam you only have 19 teams ahead of them (not including Asia) Even if you have Australia. Japan, Iran, Korea above them that would place Chile at 24.

    Thats completely comical. I'm sorry.
     
  25. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    Chile will be probably in my mid 20s. I agree it's higher than they realistically deserve. I explained that my ranking has some recency bias. Especially if a team shows great performances.

    Chile - Albania was supposed to be a draw based on my ranking. But they beat us soundly. They got a +2 Upgrade for that. They got a +1 upgrade for almost tieing France away. Chile's ranking might be inflated because of the March window. What I can say though is that I have bought into them. The new manager Gareca has done already wonders.

    Chile are in my opinion favourites to advance out of their Copa América group. After the type of performances they showed in March I expect a quarterfinal finish minimum. They can hang on maybe with Ecuador and aim for a semi-final finish ultimately.

    The most probably outcome is a quarterfinal finish.
     

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