FIFA World Cup '26: News & Analysis

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by Nico Limmat, Jun 27, 2018.

  1. uuaww

    uuaww Member+

    Nov 21, 2007
    New Orleans, LA
    Club:
    Aston Villa FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thats what hope for honestly. Qatar had 23.5 million applications. I personally think that there will be 10x that but another user said just over double at 52 million application so I will go with that. 48 games with an average stadium size of 65,000 equals 3,120,000 million seats available. He divided those numbers to get a 6% chance of success, which probably would be more or less true if each application was for 1 ticket, but they aren't. In Qatar you could apply for 12 games with 6 people each. While I don't think we will have that here. The average application will be well over 10 tickets per application. This will be skewed by the fact that EVERY tout application will be for whatever the max is, be it 30 tickets or more. So even if we take the low end and say the average application is for 10 tickets only that 6% chance turns into 0.6%. Then add in that all 65,000 seats won't be available. Sponsors and FIFA get a large chunk. that 0.6% drops to somewhere between 0.4% and 0.5%.

    Now take these numbers are with a grain of salt Not all games are created equal but it gives you an idea. If you think the demand is going to be higher... watch out.
     
  2. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So how do you increase your chance of scoring a FIFA ticket? Like for a specific game, e.g. USA@Seattle, can you submit multiple applications in parallel (using different email addresses or whatever) or do they have a way of catching that somehow? Or by saying your open to all 4 categories of seats? Or... what other tricks might people use to increase the odds of their application being accepted?
     
  3. soccer_23

    soccer_23 Member

    Feb 6, 2014

    Apply for only Cat 1 tickets (by far biggest pot of tickets) and select that you'll also accept lower categories. Submit as many applications as you can using different accounts. Each account needs only a unique email address (all other account info can be the same - physical address, credit cards, name, birthday, phone number).

    For US matches, join the US Soccer Insiders program at the highest tier you can afford. At the $1000/year level, you're nearly guaranteed to get tickets from US Soccer's allocation.
     
  4. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And she's a shit soccer player. What on earth will it cost to watch the good ones?
     
  5. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In 1990 only about half the games sold out.

    In 1986 things had been worse. Paraguay v Belgium attracted 16,000 and Hungary v Canada 13,800. Even Italy v Argentina left 14,000 tickets unsold in Puebla.

    But that was better than Spain 1982, where there were several attendances under 20,000, including just 11,000 for Peru v Cameroon.

    And in Argentina just 9,624 had turned out for Poland v Tunisia.

    I imagine that when FIFA selected the US they had visions of giving away thousands of free tickets. I think they were shocked when everything sold out.
     
  6. jesta

    jesta Member+

    Feb 9, 2014
    guess everyone was shocked including hosts:cool:
     
  7. BocaFan

    BocaFan Member+

    Aug 18, 2003
    Queens, NY
    I was thinking something somewhat similar. In my previous WCs, I have applied for primarily group stage and R16 tickets because I needed to be successful in getting tickets to minimum 3 matches to make the travel worthwhile. But I think I'll do the reverse strategy this time (since travel will be minimal in my case). Apply for late round tickets and if I'm lucky to get a semi or final by some miracle then its totally worth the short flight or car ride.

    Also, because with the new format the group stage will be significantly less interesting.
     
  8. NorthBank

    NorthBank Member+

    Arsenal; NYRB
    United States
    Mar 29, 2006
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh yeah, I forgot about USSoccer Insider. But $1000 is a bit steep, especially if you're just planning to buy 1 or 2 tickets. I remember there was a discussion not long ago that speculated about the different tiers of membership and the probability of them leading to successful ticket purchases.

    I think the key word there might be "speculation". I think that this WC'26 may be hard to predict. For example, our country is a vastly vastly different landscape in terms of footy love and demand, compared to what it was in 1994. So WC'22 might be a better comparison but Qatar vs USA... how comparable is that really??
     
  9. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
  10. uuaww

    uuaww Member+

    Nov 21, 2007
    New Orleans, LA
    Club:
    Aston Villa FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Dallas is really where all the information is coming from. I've learned more from them than anyone else.
     
  11. Tryhard1

    Tryhard1 Member

    Everton FC
    Australia
    Sep 8, 2022
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Sorry if this has already been mentioned or asked, but do we have any idea or guesses of FIFA Bringing in implications in regard to travel and transport? There is going to be some point where we will need to cross from the west to east zone, or Mexico into Canada/USA, so flying is the way you would assume? The Distances between stadia seems insane and if you are not following a specific team, then you will have to travel some distance to view different groups. Would FIFA Partner with an Airline?
     
  12. uuaww

    uuaww Member+

    Nov 21, 2007
    New Orleans, LA
    Club:
    Aston Villa FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Travel within the USA is very straightforward and should not be an issue. We have so many airlines and every one of these cities is hub (except KC) of some sort. Honestly prices will probably not be that much higher than normal, just search google flights and southwest and you will get the cheapest flights possible. Some of these airports also have smaller airports nearby as well that you can fly into that are just as good. Mexico to USA is definitely going to be by plane.

    The areas of Mexico with games are no where near drivable to the border. Canada to the USA air travel is seamless and you actually will clear US Customs in Canada so you can make short transfers easily (this is called US CBP Pre-clearance). You could drive from Toronto to the NE but it is a hell of a drive and I doubt many will do it. Seattle to Vancouver however is totally doable and people do it all the time, even in rental car.

    Seattle/Vancouver and Dallas/Houston are drivable easily. NY with Philly and Boston is drivable but NY in of itself isn't and most people will very likely just take a train as that is probably easiest.

    This isn't going to be Qatar with the easy trips to all the stadiums. This is going to be more in line with Russia and Brazil where if you wanted to travel between cities, more or less you had to fly.

    Based off what we have been told almost all groups are going to be regionalized. So they will be all East/West/Central. The exception to this will be Canada's Group which will have 2 teams (one of which will be Canada) who will start in Toronto and then go West. The worst team is Canada's opponent in the opener who will go from Toronto to LA to Seattle. Every other team will at least stay in a region.
     
  13. uuaww

    uuaww Member+

    Nov 21, 2007
    New Orleans, LA
    Club:
    Aston Villa FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    These are all my predictions for groups based off of the limited info we know.

    Group A will have Mexico and will be entirely played in Mexico. It will also have the caveat of having 2 teams (neither being Mexico) who will play their second game of the WC before 2 teams in Group K (or maybe L) have played 1.

    Group B will have Canada. Canada's opponent in the opener has the worst travel of the tournament. Going from Toronto to LA to Seattle. On the plus side, they get a group with the seeded team being Canada. Every other game in this group is played on the West Coast after the opener.

    Group C will be Northeast USA based with the final 2 matches played in MIA/ATL.

    Group D will have the USA in it and all matches to be played on West Coast.

    Group E will be East based but 2 matches will not (HOU and KC) along with a TOR match.

    Group F will be Central based with 2 matches in Monterrey, Mexico. A team will get to play their first to matches in Monterrey to start.

    Group G will be Southeast USA based with the first 4 matches in MIA/ATL before 3rds in BOS/TOR.

    Group H will be West Coast based with 2 Vancouver matches.

    Group I will suck. Someone could getting KC>SF>GDL while someone gets SF>SF>HOU. Hopefully they force the team that got the back to back SF games to travel to GDL, the only game in this group outside the USA. 4 games in this group are Central except the 2 in SF.

    Group J will be all Northeast USA based for all 6 matches (Neutrals, this is the group you want for low travel)

    Group K and L are a bit interchangeable as either could really have each other's slate of games. They have one big * and that is M24 in Mexico City. I believe it will actually be apart of Group A to keep Mexico's group all in Mexico. That makes M25 to be apart of groups K or L; I put it in K. Travel in each group is actually not bad. K is fully East USA with 2 TOR games, while L is fully Central USA with one in GDL.


    A lot of teams will have good travel and some will have downright great. (You want to be B3, Canada's second opponent who will go VAN>VAN>SEA). Some teams will get shafted. Any team going from USA>MEX>USA is going to feel slighted but only 2 teams have to do that. Really if you avoid Group I by my prediction, travel will not be bad. Group B, F, and L will each have 1 team with shit travel and probably 2 teams (maybe 3) in I will have shit travel.
     
  14. PabloSanDiego

    PabloSanDiego Member+

    West Ham United
    United States
    Jan 18, 2014
    San Diego, CA
    Club:
    West Ham United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I hope this is true but unless you have some real insider info I'm not that confident. Have you (or anyone) ever seen any statistics as to how many accounts are at the various levels? Assuming they use the same weighted random draw process in the past we could do some rough calculations, but without knowing the numbers, we really don't know.

    Also, my rep told me that longevity comes into the equation also. But he didn't tell me how. I think the algorithm that sets each member's odds is based on current level and longevity, or maybe just total $$ contributed to USSF over the years, but I don't know.

    I expect a ton of new people join in 2025 before the cutoff just to get into that first ticketing Pot. It wouldn't be fair if they had the same odds as someone who's been contributing for say 10 years or 20. But I don't know, it might be that straightforward.

    I will be super disappointed if I don't get tickets though as I've been Captain's Circle ($1k/year) since 2022 and was Supporters Circle ($500/year) for all the years before that when they started the Insiders thing. 90% of the reason I've been contributing is to get 2026 World Cup tickets. Yeah I know when I add up what I've contributed it makes no sense so don't remind me of that, I can do the math and it's painful

    The next level up for me is Coach's Circle at $5K/year and that's not going to happen for me. But I can see some people jumping in at that level next year to get the edge on tickets.
     
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  15. uuaww

    uuaww Member+

    Nov 21, 2007
    New Orleans, LA
    Club:
    Aston Villa FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    i think the demand for US games will far outpace the supply that the US will receive. I would love to be wrong but those games are going to have stupid demand. I wouldn't pay $1000 a year to US Soccer (who has a very shitty track record of supplying tickets to games they don't actively control), unless I get hard data on the expected success rate.
     
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  16. soccer_23

    soccer_23 Member

    Feb 6, 2014
    If USSF only has access to the usual 8% of capacity for each US match, then those will go quickly. But perhaps they’ll be able to negotiate access to a larger block for favored Insider members, being the host federation.
     
  17. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Looks like FIFA might be going down the same route as UEFA did with the Euros in Germany, where there was massive over-demand, as opposed to Qatar where some remaining tickets were sold on a first come first serve basis followed by a random draw phase.

    1994 is useless as a reference as FIFA wasn't even expecting it to sell out.
     
    Ric_Braz, ValenAle. and soccer_23 repped this.
  18. ValenAle.

    ValenAle. Member

    Port Vale
    Scotland
    May 31, 2021
    #2894 ValenAle., May 22, 2024
    Last edited: May 22, 2024
    I’m personally expecting this to be the most expensive and most difficult WC to get tickets for of all the ones I’ve been to/applied for.

    My luck in the lotteries has been nonexistent since 2010 anyway, and I think I’m going to have to apply for Cat1, even for Group Game, just to stand a reasonable chance of any confidence of maybe getting something. Obviously, some will get lucky in Cat 2 and Cat 3 but I suspect far more won’t. Of course I’ll then be paying top $ for what might be not the most attractive match up.

    We will be going anyway, as I’ll be combining it with my general love of road tripping in the US and have a few things to do, people to see, 50 States collection to complete, so I can wait it out for FCFS if I have to, but I expect that will be difficult with high demand as we’ve seen with the Euros.
     
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  19. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    I have been saying this for years around here and people laughed and scoffed at the idea.

    Between tickets and flights and accommodations it will be very, very expensive and mostly rich people will be able to go to most matches. Or at least the matches that are involving teams that actually have a chance to win the Cup.
     
  20. uuaww

    uuaww Member+

    Nov 21, 2007
    New Orleans, LA
    Club:
    Aston Villa FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #2896 uuaww, May 22, 2024
    Last edited: May 22, 2024
    Right here with you on game tickets. I don't expect flights to be that much more than summer travel but if you are used to Intra Europe/Asia prices on flights, you will be mistaken. A flight from Dallas to New York will probably run between $200-$300. Thankfully, you can make 1 place your home base and venture out from there with minimal flights. Accommodations will be easy too. All these cities are so massive that it won't be an issue. Also a lot of these stadiums are on the outskirts anyways, some in areas you wouldn't want to stay in. Easy doesn't mean cheap btw. Summer hotel prices will suck. but US based fans who are in the know can do hotel points and airline points to make this more barrable. An example would be I assume all the nice hotels in downtown Dallas will be blocked for FIFA but I would be stunned if the Hampton Inn in Frisco or Fort Worth are.

    I am in the 'get tickets first' camp and than figure out my strategy after. When I go for the lottery, outside of the USA games I am sticking to applying for Dallas, Houston, Miami, Atlanta and Kansas City. Tickets will be hard. Flight and Accommodations will be easy to book and normal priced imo.
     
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  21. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    I mean when comparing to other World Cups when you can take trains or busses to the other venues. It is all relative.
    Qatar people were able to go to multiple matches in a day without spending much.

    It all adds up.
     
  22. uuaww

    uuaww Member+

    Nov 21, 2007
    New Orleans, LA
    Club:
    Aston Villa FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh 100%.

    Qatar was an anomaly tho for ease of getting to games bc it was so small. Qatar's flights pissed me off to no end. Almost no one I talked to flew on Qatar Airways because they were so expensive for the World Cup. It was insane. From what I heard they flew 1/2 to 3/4 filled planes during the World Cup from the USA and that is a failure on their part. We were lucky that accommodations in Qatar weren't jacked up too much as long as you stayed away from the hotels. We had a 4 bedroom place and it was fine.. served its purpose.

    Russia flights to and from were actually easy and normal priced. Moscow is so big that if you weren't in the heart of the city, hotel prices were completely normal. We loved our hotel in Moscow. Russia's problem was if you went anywhere other than Moscow/St Petersburg. Intra-Russia flight prices were insane and hotels in smaller cities were jacked up in prices.

    Brazil flights were fine for us but we stuck to Natal and Manaus. Nothing was crazy and the 1 time charter from Natal to Manaus was $450 which felt like a good deal to not have to backtrack to Rio/SP. Hotels were jacked. Natal was 4x normal price and Manaus messaged us the day before that the price was 10x what we paid online. We ended up booking the worst Airbnb ever instead... along with a converted love hotel... which was actually pretty entertaining and awesome.
     
  23. PabloSanDiego

    PabloSanDiego Member+

    West Ham United
    United States
    Jan 18, 2014
    San Diego, CA
    Club:
    West Ham United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    yeah everyone agrees demand is going to be off the charts, WAY higher than previous tournaments. I asked a lot of questions of my rep and USSF isn't giving any hard data/information and certainly no guarantees. My feeling on this is the Presidents Circle at $10K a year are guaranteed. Coach's Circle at $5K/year are probably very likely. I don't think Captain's Circle at $1K/year are guaranteed or even likely, just an increased chance.

    My rep told me that longevity also comes into play. That makes sense, a one time $5K contribution to get into Coach's Circle the year before the draw shouldn't put someone at better odds than someone who's contributed a lot more in total over many years but we really don't know. USSF is not going to give us any solid information, just that high level Random Weighted Draw process graphic without actual info on how individual weighting factors are calculated.
     
  24. PabloSanDiego

    PabloSanDiego Member+

    West Ham United
    United States
    Jan 18, 2014
    San Diego, CA
    Club:
    West Ham United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    there's a lot of good info in here. As someone who's traveled extensively for work for many decades these are good points.

    I don't think flights are going to get crazy expensive. The trick is to book early while the cheaper fares are available. Airfares can be weird with timing but I don't expect in the summer of 2026 that fares to host cities will go down as match dates get closer. Book early and lock in the lower fares. This is even more important if using miles, there's a limited number of seats available at low miles and need to get in early to book them. On international flights I even book the first day seats are released, google will tell you how far in advance airlines release tickets and it's good to track it daily as that date draws near.

    I also agree accommodations won't be a big issue because the room inventory is so large in these cities. If a stadium holds 65K how many extra rooms are needed even considering all the extra people attending. many attendees will be local. As @uuaww said there's also all the non luxury chains, and then add in AirBnB. But like airlines good to book early. Hotel chains have similar release dates for rooms as airlines but the good part is they are usually fully refundable.

    One thing in the past though is that big chains (I'm Bonvoy and IHG) block out rooms for points in host cities for the duration of the tournament. I've seen this with Olympics too. The big higher end chains in the downtowns of host cities will be hard or more likely impossible to get.

    We know what days will be played in which city, but not who is playing even the Pot number. I'm not sure when that comes out. The draw won't happen until after the airlines and hotels have released seats/rooms. Refundable airfares usually don't make sense but refundable rooms are usually available. It'll be interesting as the tournament gets closer as far as travel planning.
     

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