Sources: Cavan Sullivan's record-breaking homegrown deal averages out to just north of $500k per season.Previous record was Freddy Adu at $500k/seasonSullivan's deal escalates every year (like most). Curious to see year 1 when MLSPA releases contractshttps://t.co/oYJgEV2z6f— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) May 9, 2024
On the labor law question they are still figuring it out but it’s possible the NY law may apply with MLS being New York based A lot of excitement, and rightfully so, surrounds the signing of Cavan Sullivan.However, what truly is the pathway to see the 14-year-old feature for the first team at Subaru Park (or on the road)? Are Pennsylvania Child Labor Laws an issue?I asked Ernst Tanner, and this is… pic.twitter.com/xBMhp2B2bv— José Roberto Nuñez (@JoserNunez91) May 9, 2024
I've spent some trying trying to figure out if we got low balled on him considering how much Paez and Kendrick went for in recent bidding wars the last year. Paez went for 21.5 million dollar fee around his 16th birthday to Chelsea, Kendrick went for 72 million euros to Real Madrid. Cavan's deal does not sound remotely in that universe, so I'm a bit befuddled on it. Note that I'm not saying that he's Kenrick or Paez, for one thing he's a good 3 years younger than those guys at least, maybe 4, so he's a less finished product, but good lord man, if Paez is worth 21.5 at age 16 in spring '23, and the Kendrick bidding was won when he was 16 back in December of '22 for 72, I'm struggling to see why Cavan was literally a tiny fraction of that (basically about 1/11th the size of the Paez deal). Maybe incentives which apparently are inside the deal could make it more valuable and I'm sure Philly gets a piece of sell on fee's, but man, it sure does look like 2 million vs 72 for Kendrick and versus 21.5 for a Paez who didn't look any better than the rest of our U20 team a year ago this month seems, I don't know, a bit odd. I can play into it that Cavan's still just 14.5 years old basically and those guys rights were purchases a good 18-20 months later in the aging process, but we are talking Kenrick going for 36x what Cavan did, and again, Paez going for 11x. It just seems a bit short. I was definitely expecting something closer to 10 million. I imagine it has to be built into the incentives, and the sell on value, because otherwise, it just seems like Philly got taken (otoh, it is better than nothing, and they do get to keep him for another 2-4 more seasons so there's that). It could also just be that Philadelphia didn't control his rights so if they didn't play ball, Man City could just sign him directly with no fee at all, but man, its just weird. I do kinda feel like MLS has to figure out how to avoid losing guys like this for nothing, glad they pulled it off with him, even if it seems a bit short to me. I am curious how this will go, as we've been talking about him over the past year, I've tried to negotiate that sweet spot of not suggesting he's WC relevant, while also suggesting, technically, its possible he could be, just extraordinarily unlikely (as he'd be 16 going on 17 a few months after we host it). Its possible, technically. Pulisic was 17 years and 4 months old more or less when he played for the first time for Dortmund's seniors, and 2 months later he debuted for the USMNT. I'm a touch bitter that the WC doesn't fall in '28 instead as I think he probably would play in that. We'll just need to play Copa America. It's exciting to watch needless to say. Very exciting, especially during a period thats been a bit light in terms of truly USMNT starter caliber players coming up the past few years. Since Pepi and reyna in '19-'21, we haven't really seen any of the '04's to '06's really lay down a marker as a "must start" option, so to have Cavan just crushing it as an '09 is exciting, we definitely need some of those inbetween guys like Keyrol and Berchimas etc to break through while we wait.
I think it’s 1) those players were both older when those deals were made, and 2) the Union had very little leverage in this situation given that the alternative was he just never signs with them and goes to Belgium at 16. That wasn’t the case for either Paez or Endrick.
Yeah, that does seem like the explanation. I think the latter is the big bit. He didn't want to go to Europe and get lost in some nowheresville in Belgium, but he also didn't want to be locked into a homegrown where he lacked control to dictate his own choices, so basically Philly got thrown a bone because it was a better situation than Man City's plan, and for giving them some loyalty, the sense I get is he got from them the release clause (which i think is 18+ the ability to leave sooner), but man, we really need to figure out how to get value for these guys. Man City has ---- all to do with Cavan Sullivan's development, it's all about his family and Philly, and it's aggravating to imagine them pulling in the vast bulk of the value if he hits as so many think he may. Hopefully Philly got a nice piece of sell on, and not a paltry one because if he hits, to the degree everyone seems to think he will, he could sell for way beyond the # McKennie and Aaronson pulled (the comp of Szoboszlai, went for 60 mill last summer).
Both Paez and Endrick were already under contract when they got attention and had started playing in the top league during negotiations. If Cavan were not an EU citizen it would have been the same story for him but that out at 16 gave his camp a lot of leverage.
I think it’s tough when someone is on the Pulisic/Reyna track where they have an EU passport and it’s clear at a fairly young age they are a top prospect. Those are going to be harder sales to make a ton of money as MLS teams don’t have a ton of leverage. The big sales for MLS are going to be players with the profile of a Davies or Pepi where they don’t have an EU passport so they can’t go over till 18 and they don’t have a good alternative to signing with the team.
Yeah, and I do think at this point, we're much farther along, having layed down markers with dozens of players that have gone from MLS to stardom in Europe at times, and if not stardom, certainly "legit big 5 starter" territory. I think the days of teams getting steals like Bayern Munich got for Davies are done. Europe knows there are supreme talents bubbling up in our league nowdays, no matter how --- it may be at times (and Messi just tearing it to pieces aint a great look in some ways), there's no doubt whatsoever that there are special talents here. Exciting times.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he does. Then Philly gets recognized as having the youngest debutant in MLS.
Some salary comparisons (based on last year) Per @tombogert's sources, Cavan Sullivan is slated to earn "just north of $500,000" per season through 2028.Let's put that into perspective based on the MLSPA salaries (guaranteed compensation) from last year. While it's not perfect as some of the following players may have… pic.twitter.com/rj3midIJZd— José Roberto Nuñez (@JoserNunez91) May 9, 2024
The interesting thing about all this is that it's opened a Pandora's box for MLS teams. The Athletic article noted that players like Carrizo signed for $100k+ -- great money for a 14 year old, but nothing like what Sullivan got. Given that a lot of young players have leverage with a EU passport, other teams could find some pretty large requests financially coming in. Now, most European teams won't match it, but still, once something like this is public, other players make comparisons.
I mean anyone who’s a good prospect with European options and a EU passport is definitely going to have options. But how many potential homegrown players are going to be getting European offers of 500,000+?
I don't think it's impossible. And it doesn't need to be $500,000. If the previous non-Adu highs were $100k or so -- and originally bound by homegrown rules, I think, then there's going to be a decent number of players who can demand a higher deal. I don't think it's a bad thing. Just interesting that MLS decided to open this can of worms. Probably best they recognized they are going to need to pay to keep players.
Do we think someone like Mathis Albert is getting 500,000 Dortmund? I just don’t think there are going to be that many potential homegrown players who are going to get those sorts of offers. The Union were also trying to match City here who probably pays a bit more than most.
There might be a team that'd pay that for him. City or Chelsea, sure. But even if it's $300k, that's $200k more than the highest pre-Sullivan.
Yup. This is a pretty special case in 2024. And if other clubs want to give 14 year olds this kind of contract? Go for it. Not really a can of worms as far as I'm concerned. This is what MLS does. They make it up as they go along. Then they'll codify this in the rules, and other clubs will be able to do it if they want. Over the next 20 years all sorts of kids are going to be signing MLS/MLSNP deals as clubs look to retain domestic talent. The league is going to find ways to enable it, particularly when it comes to retaining the perceived "star" prospects. How much does a first round draft pick coming out of high school make in baseball as he's entering the minor leagues? Has done nothing whatsoever at the professional level. Is years away from MLB. 3rd overall pick Max Clark out of high school in Indiana. $7.7 million. That's not his salary. That's just to friggin' sign the contract. Baseball teams have money. MLS teams have money. I get it. Cavan is 14 so this is making headlines. But over time, MLS clubs are going to keep ratcheting up the money they're going to spend on these types of prospects. What's the problem? There is none. What we hope is that this is NOT a special case 20 years from now. That we're routinely pumping out kids of this quality level.
Couple things that struck me- the parents said Jim Curtin really made this deal happen. It wasn't going to happen, I guess Philly didn't realize they had no leverage and weren't going to play ball but Jim got things moving. Also, the decision to join Man City came from Cavan. Parents said they made him write a list of the pros and cons of each club and he went with City. This doesn't make me feel any better as a fan.
I don’t know if it’s been mentioned here but I saw someone call him “Philly Foden” on Twitter and that nickname goes hard.
I think with the English teams it’s going to be hard for them to sign any American players before the age of 18 so the fact they offer more also comes with a significant delay. And if someone like Albert is getting like 300,000 that’s still not going to apply to a ton of other cases given he’s a prospect some scouts have said they see on the same level of Cavan Sullivan. I feel like there’s very few homegrown players where MLS is going to have an issue in terms of competitive offers with their current limit of 200,000.
I'm a little confused about the language around "Homegrown" contracts. MLS rules are that you can sign a "Homegrown" player with the subsidy and keep them on your supplemental roster for more salary than a non HG would allow. That way they don't count against cap. There's also a new rule that's not in the official ones posted where you can put players on an "Off Roster" designation. I'm not really sure how that works, but the roster profile dump MLS did had a number of players there. Sullivan getting 500K a year amortized would put him well above the subsidy. He'd have to be a senior player and count towards the 20 spots. You could still call him a Homegrown because that's what he is, but he'd be a "super" Homegrown where the designation doesn't really mean anything. So maybe MLS changed the rules so Sullivan can stay on the supplemental, or even off-roster designation. If the latter is the case he isn't playing in MLS this season. He'd probably be ok to play in Leagues Cup though. Philadelphia and Curtin specifically have always played a short roster. 22 players last season out of an available 30, for example. I don't think Philly wants to give up a senior spot to a player who can't meaningfully contribute for a couple years, but I do think it's weird that MLS would change things to let them. Of course, roster changes were discussed at the latest owners meeting and maybe this was one of them.
Somewhat related to that: https://www.inquirer.com/soccer/cavan-sullivan-philadelphia-union-jay-sugarman-20240510.html The Union signing Sullivan was so important that Sugarman personally made the case to MLS headquarters. “This is the type of talent that we want to see grow up in this league," he tells The Inquirer. So I don't think it's weird at all. MLS talks a big game about wanting to grow and become a top league, and bending to adapt new rules for top prospects like this is part of it. Like imagine if Sullivan is winning CLs with Man City in 10 years time and all MLS can say about it is "yeah, Philly wanted to sign him but we didn't let them because of some HG contract rules that were created in 2009. oh well lol." or something. That would be really weak.
What's confusing? Back in 2006 (?) LA Galaxy had the crazy idea of signing David Beckham. At that time the league's roster rules would not have made that possible. League HQ pivoted, made an exception and then created a new mechanism to use to sign exceptional "star" players that made above a certain amount of money. This is no different. A MLS team has an exceptional talent in their academy that teams outside of MLS want to sign. MLS team wants to sign their exceptional talent, however, the current roster rules won't allow them to sign said talent (outside MLS teams are offering above the max number). Team owner walks down the street to MLS HQ and makes his case to the minions. "You talk about being a league of choice. You talk about being a league that develops young american players. Well.... we have a potential once a generation talent in our academy, who would like to see develop and get his professional start in MLS with our team. BTW, the EPL team that wants to sign him is Manchester City........ no insider knowledge of MLS roster rules there....." IOW, MLS has to walk the walk. They need to back up their talk with actions. The league can';t just let Miami and the LA teams sign who ever the hell they want, and then turn around and stone wall the lower spending teams, and those that prioritize their youth academies. This is just as much about showing young prospects that MLS is a viable path to realizing their dreams of playing at the highest levels of the game (Real Madrid, Man City, etc.). This helps to stamp out the noise that "MLS holds players back," "MLS prevents transfers to Europe," etc.. It's also Philly stating to the rest of the league, and the promising young players across the country: if you want to get to Europe or play in MLS, we'll find you and we'll help you get there. Yes, this is going to ruffle a lot of feathers in MLS youth development circles. It's not a bad thing either. From the articles it sounds like Cavan's contract with Philly escalates each season, so there's a decent chance that this season's number would be near the current max HG level. Then in the subsequent years it escalates to a U22/YDP contract. I'm probably wrong, but that's what it sounds like to me.