Quarterly Quarrel - The Financial Discussion Part 5

Right when you think the Glazers have screwed this club for the last time, imagine they take the lower bid so that they can stay on and collect dividends instead of taking the higher offer with an owner who can clear the debt and invest in the team.

 

Why wouldn't they? They're all about the $$$, they'll take the offer that gives them the most and SJR is most likely exactly that.

 

If that happens i think there will be regular protests, walk outs or maybe like one we had in 2021.

 

I highly doubt it. There'll be some initial intense backlash, but it'll go away, just like the protests did during the season. Everyone wants the Glazers gone, but you never heard anything about meaningful protests. Stadium was always full, merch still sold, etc.

It's empty threats, and the Glazers are counting on it - and I'm pretty sure they're right.

 

Why are you so sure they will be able to collect dividends? If they stay, it's a long term equity play.

It's not about dividends at all.

 

That’s true I guess. We don’t know if they’ll be able to take dividends. By all accounts they want to keep ahold of shares because they feel like the club is being undervalued and they could potentially cash out later for me. Which, if true, shows how big piece of suits they are. They know that if ram properly and given proper investment, the club could flourish. But rather than do that themselves, they want a piece of it when someone else does it.

 

There will still be dividends under an Ineos takeover.

Ineos cant afford to buyout the non-Glazer shareholders (or fully write off the club debt).

While a minority but significant share of the club is publicly traded, dividends will continue to be expected and that and the club debt will continue to weigh the club down.

The Glazer brothers wanting and being permitted to hang around is for both dividends and capital growth. They want to have their cake and eat it and Ineos are offering them that.

Make some large capital gain now (ie reduce their stake), plus retain a stake in a club with a supposedly larger market value than previously, plus get dividends on those, plus sell the remaining stake at a later date (when according to one possible scenario being pushed by Ineos the club will have been successful and be worth more).

Given the Glazers have already gained hugely with a partial cashout can see why this is attractive to them.

However you would need to have faith that Ineos can run the club well, get new club revenue, resolve issues with declining sponsorship (partially caused by split between fans / Glazers), resolve squad / stadium / training under-investment issues. Most importantly compete with City, Liverpool, Newcastle, Arsenal etc for regular CL needed for income.

I have zero faith that Ineos can deliver that.

Firstly they have no track record (their record at the two french clubs should be of huge concern).

Secondly with the debt and Glazer remaining issues a significant number of fans will continue to boycott shirts, sponsors etc and the negative vibe will remain.

But that looks to be where we are heading …

 

PSG president Nasser Al-Khelaifi has played a significant role in talks over the purchase of #mufc fronted by Sheikh Jassim. Al-Khelaifi has been contacted by the Glazers in an attempt to persuade Sheikh Jassim to increase his bid [@David_Ornstein] pic.twitter.com/k2XNrcFAmP

— utdreport (@utdreport) June 9, 2023

 

Well, look at that. If it weren't Fabrizio, I'd ignore it.

EDIT: Is that his actual account? Under18B?

EDIT 2: It's a fake account.

https://twitter.com/FabrizioRomano?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

I never believed they'd walk.

 

Reports now say they haven’t walked but won’t be increasing their bids anymore. It’s take it or leave it at apparently around 6 bil.

 

Yes, those reports dropped over 12 hours ago now.

 

This is a very interesting podcast about INEOS, its environmental issues and green-washing.

As I keep saying, neither bidder should be championed and we should hold either owner to account.

Irrespective of your preference do not ignore the valid issues with both of them‼️ https://t.co/wmigpUg3ep

— 𝘾𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙤𝙣𝙖 𝘾𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙧𝙨 - aka Larry 🇾🇪 (@Cantona_Collars) June 10, 2023

 

Given this process has run into the transfer window, may be an opportunity for whoever may win to do some transfer business under “Glazer” ownership.

They could agree the framework of a deal, delay announcement and do some business before prices get more jacked than usual.

Most likely outcome is though is the Glazers half-arse the transfer window then continue to half-arse the sale …

 

Obviously take it with a grain of salt, but Mike Keegan is saying an announcement coming this week.

Have a sneaky feeling that last SJ may have given him the edge. Just my gut instinct given the timing from last week.

Hopefully a resolution of some kind comes this week.

 

Keegan also said that the latest SJ bid is about the same evaluation as the SJR bid. So now it’s just a matter of if the Glazers want to remain invested or want to sell completely.

 

Article on the above

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/f...assim-Jim-Ratcliffe-prepare-final-offers.html

 

Will fans revolt if they get their wish for SJR but the Glazers are still around?

 

Rumours just kicked up another level. The share price just rocketed and sounding more and more like SR has won the bid.

Edit: And, is the Mbappe news purely coincidence?!? Or???

 

I am seeing that supposedly a news network owned by SJ’s dad in Qatar have announced that they’ve won the bid.

Hope there is some conclusion to all this soon.

 

Yeah seems like either something is imminent or people are just guessing based on latest rumors that a takeover is near.

Actually, looking at the share spike, it’s too significant to be a coincidence. Something is happening soon.

As for the Qatari paper reporting it, that could just be another PR turn to sway things. But hopefully this is nearly wrapped.