Here we go. That's my ecosystem ranking for CONMEBOL using the same exact model I used for the AFC. Bear in mind my model takes into account - NT Form => 50% weighting - Youth results => 20% weighting - Pedigree = 20% weighting - Club Success => 10% weighting National team form since 2019 has been considered. Youth results since the year of 2013. Subject of my my research were the results at the U20 level and the Summer Olympics. Pedigree refers to the past results. To be precise it starts with 2006 WCQ and the 2007 Copa America. Everything before that was not taken into account. Club success refers to results obtained in the Copa America and the Copa Sudamericana since 2016. All results for each metrics were calculated based on a formular. It's not feelings related but stats related. Nation_____________________Score 1. Argentina_______________9.15 NT Form___________________10 Youth______________________6.5 Pedigree___________________10 Club success_______________8.5 2. Brazil__________________9.15 NT Form___________________9.5 Youth______________________7.5 Pedigree___________________9.5 Club success_______________10 3. Uruguay________________6.90 NT Form___________________6.5 Youth______________________10 Pedigree___________________6.5 Club success_______________3.5 4. Colombia_______________6.25 NT Form___________________6.5 Youth______________________7.0 Pedigree___________________5.5 Club success_______________5.0 5. Ecuador________________5.15 NT Form___________________5.5 Youth______________________5.5 Pedigree___________________3.5 Club success_______________6.0 6. Peru___________________5.00 NT Form___________________7.0 Youth______________________2.0 Pedigree___________________5.0 Club success_______________1.0 7. Chile___________________4.80 NT Form___________________5.5 Youth______________________3.5 Pedigree___________________5.5 Club success_______________2.5 8. Paraguay_______________4.75 NT Form___________________5.0 Youth______________________4.0 Pedigree___________________4.5 Club success_______________5.5 9. Venezuela______________3.55 NT Form___________________4.0 Youth______________________4.5 Pedigree___________________2.5 Club success_______________1.5 10. Bolivia________________2.05 NT Form___________________2.5 Youth______________________1.5 Pedigree___________________1.0 Club success_______________3.0 I think it's safe to say that Argentina and Brazil form a top 2 while Uruguay and Colombia round off what is a strong top 4. There are in Ecuador, Peru, Chile and Paraguay four nations that can pretend to be the fifth best nation in CONMEBOL. The margins are very small as highlighted in my ranking. The upcoming 2026 cycle will give us a better indication on which nation is fifth. For more information check out the following link: https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtopic.php?t=6049 For taking a part in a poll check out the following link: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/conmebol-nations-ecosystem-ranking.2125583/#post-41341029
Youth would be 10 if it was between 1997 and 2008. Needs to be worked on again. Aligns with my rant in the youth thread recently. The club success is obvious. Brazil got it's shit together, and is fixing the league. The Argentina league is affected by multiple issues. Both issues need to be resolved. Shouldn't your scores for Argentina read 8.75 and Brazil 9.1?
My man, you need to pay more respect to Ecuador's youth system. They did really well in this current U-17 championship and U-20; La Tricolor does really well with youth development. Kendry Paez looks like the real deal. I would would change the Youth to a solid 7 (or at least 6.5) And as always, Albanian cuisine is widely underrated! Who doesn't like a good Byrek
Argentina's and Brazil's score is 9.15 since you need to consider the weighting I gave each category. I ranked Argentina ahead of Brazil since they are better in the most important metric - which is NT form. Argentina___________________________Brazil NT Form => 50% 10 x 0.5 = 5__________________________9.5 x 0.5 = 4.75 Youth => 20% 6.5 x 0.2 = 1.3________________________7.5 x 0.2 = 1.5 Pedigree => 20% 10 x 0.2 = 2__________________________9.5 x 0.2 = 1.9 Club Success => 10% 8.5 x 0.1 = 0.85_______________________10 x 0.1 = 1.0 Then you add up everything 5 + 1.3 + 2 + 0.85 = 9.15________________4.75 + 1.5 + 1.9 + 1.0 = 9.15 If you say change the weighting and put club success at an higher percentage then you'll get Brazil first. However I think club football is not the best metric when assessing a nation's program. The national team with its youth teams is. That's why I gave these a higher weighting.
Thanks again for the shout for the Albanian cuisine. My metric "youth" includes only the results at the U20 level and the Summer Olympics. So it has 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2023 editions of the U20 South American Championship + the results of the U20 World Cup of these editions + The 2020 CONMEBOL Pre-Olympic Tournament and the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo itself U17 level was not considered. I personaly think that the U17 level is a bit too premature to draw any healthy conclusins from for a nation's program. A relatively large portion of U17 national team players disappears later on. They don't make it to the highest tier of the domestic league. Some of them dissappear completely and can't even grab a pro contract. A player that ends up playing for the A senior's natiomal team eventually rarely has gone through all the underage categories. It's rather the exception than the rule. That's why I decided to disregard the U17 level. I think the U20s is the level we should look on. Success in the U20 level quite often but not always boads well also for the subsequent years for the A senior national side. And with the U20 level most players have already a pro contract in the bag and are already getting some playing time in the highest tier of domestic football. Ecuador's U20 qualified for three World Cups out of these five editions. In 2017 they exited in the group stage. In 2019 they won bronze. For this year's edition in Argentina they are qualified.
I'm surprised I've got an own thread here in the Argentina forum. I opened a separate thread for this in the CONMEBOL sub-forum but it seems nobody visits that forum currently. I did such a ranking also for the AFC. Next up is CAF. But for that I'll wait until AFCON qualifiers wrap up in September. I plan to update these rankings after a while. So this is going to become a permanent thing. It serves as a quick and objective review on where each nation's program is. Next update for CONMEBOL will come once the U20 World Cup is concluded + the Copa Libertadores and the Copa Sudamericana are wrapped up and the 2024 Pre-Olympic Tournament is in the books. So that might be sometime in February 2024 or so, I guess.
The last two olympic tournaments have been a complete joke, many teams attending heavily understrengthened. I'd disregard them as a metric altogether.
I took only the 2020 Olympics. I faced some criticism for putting Peru at 7.0 for NT form while putting Ecuador only at 5.5. My calculation format weighted the Copa Americas too heavily compared to WCQ. I see where people come from. A set of 18 matches in the Eliminatorias serves as better assessment for a nation's form than two Copa Americas where for the latest edition the group stage was a joke and too much depends on the bounce of the ball and a good draw. I'll probably change my calculation format and revise these rankings.
Very interesting. The results of CONMEBOL nations at the U20 World Cup reflect pretty accurately the scores I had calculated for 'youth' for them based on the results in the last 8-10 years. Look at this: Uruguay_____________10______________Finalists Brazil________________7.5_____________Quarterfinals Colombia____________7.0_____________Quarterfinals Argentina____________6.5_____________Round of 16 Ecuador_____________6.5_____________Round of 16 So, the performances of the CONMEBOL nations at the U20 World Cup were pretty much in line to what you could have expected based on how these nations did at the U20 level in the last decade. My CONMEBOL 2026 WCQ predictions will drop by the end of this month.