I have always been struck by how you analyze football as if it were an individual sport, as if the players generate goals by themselves, completely ignoring the fact that the goalscorers wouldn't be able to do practically anything without a team behind them creating goal-scoring opportunities. The players who score the most goals do so because they receive the ball more frequently in favorable positions to attempt a shot, not because they have a superior ability to the rest. The 'goal-scoring ability' does exist, but it is not as decisive as you think. In fact, statistics like 'expected goals' demonstrate this point. Mediocre goal scorers in great teams will score more goals than top goal scorers playing in mediocre teams. It's not much more complicated than that. I don't want to undermine the goalscorers, though. Achieving the objective of scoring a goal deserves recognition, and what Cristiano Ronaldo has done is excellent. However, he, and this also applies to Messi, would be nothing without a great team behind them. Speaking of Messi, he is a player who can offer much more to his team than just goals. In fact, Messi often tends to drop back and focus on creating plays for the team, especially in difficult matches. This has been seen several times with the Argentine national team. So, it is obvious that, due to the player's characteristics, he won't be solely focused on scoring goals. Creative players who generate opportunities for their teammates are equally valuable as goal scorers, and statistics can hardly represent something like this.. It would be interesting to know his number of 'winning assists' throughout his career. One piece of data I collected some time ago is the number of 'assists that put the team ahead' between the 2007/08 and 2019/20 seasons. Only in clubs, Messi has 86, and Cristiano has 44.
Something similar to this exists https://www.messivsronaldo.app/detailed-stats/points-contribution/ And the “assist thing that put a team ahead” would be a totally subjective and pointless exercise because no two people agree on what an assist actually is while nobody I have ever spoken to has disagreed on what a goal is Even if we both agreed on what qualifies as an assist I would not be surprised if Messi had significantly more important assists as Ronaldo due the growing gulf between them in assist totals the older they have become So that is a point I would grant you without having or even needing to do any sort of research or investigating Even then I am not even talking about assists I am talking about GOALS and only GOALS
Almost 6 months into this thread and not a single poster has voted for Karim benzema I think he is the best of second tier strikers The category of Sergio Aguero Gonzalo higuain Edison cavani Robin van persie Ciro immobile hasn’t been mentioned but I think he would’ve been a devastating league goalscorer in any era of Serie A Radamel falcao at his best was probably not worse than Gabriel batistuta at club level IMO and actually I though he was the best CF in the world during 2012 His peak is actually underrated In 2012 Atlético's manager, Diego Simeone, said “Falcao is the best striker in the world." Pep Guardiola had expressed the same opinion six months earlier. Fabio Capello agreed. https://amp.theguardian.com/football/blog/2012/dec/14/radamel-falcao-atletico-madrid-barcelona @Sexy Beast Nobody would dare or even dream comparing Karim benzema to radamel falcao during 2011-2013
Just quickly on Messi - Ronaldo since weve oppened it up again but the argument applies to any discussion. Points via goals statistic is still only a proxy for importance of the goal. It is flawed and doesnt capture everything. Statistical randomness still plays a role. For example, Messis goal against Mexico for 1-0, which is the definition of a quality, clutch play at the highest level of pressure and importance that completely changed the fate and trajectory of WC22 and football history for that matter, wouldnt be included in such statistic because they scored 2nd goal and won 2-0. In theory, without Messis first goal they would still win 1-0, but that is not reflective of what actually happened on the pitch. This is one example of a clear insufficiency of the statistic and I am not arguing that Messi has more of those moments than Ronaldo across his career. The point is that we cant tell from that statistic and the statistic doesnt tell us a full story. It is very difficult to capture value of goals and on top of that quality of goals as well. It would be interesting to think about how to do it. Also, goals and assists are not the end of impact. People dont like it for some reason, but tracking pre-assists would give and even greater picture of players impact, and as one might guess, Messi is exceptional in that area as well (countless gamewinning, exceptional preassists) and this is really where Ronaldos limited role compared to Messi starts to show. Some are not preassists but you can see that some of those passes are more impressive than an assist or a finish. This is btw, Messi out of his peak in one season. On more on-topic conversation. Haaland for example has 8 assists this epl season which is pretty solid for a striker, but that comes down to his positioning in front of a goal where basically any of his passes have a good chance of being scored by a virtue of closeness to the goal. Assists dont capture decisive passes and chance creation well. It is incomplete analysis.
That is true. His peak was incredible for few years. He is underrated. I also thought of him as the best striker in that period.
Haaland officially ends his epl season at lower non penalty goals per 90 rate than Suarez and Salah Erling Haaland ends the season with 29 non-penalty goals, the second most ever scored in a 38-game Premier League season.Only two players have scored more in a single Premier League season, both with 31.🇪🇬 🇺🇾 pic.twitter.com/zpdewubi5Q— VisualGame (@avisualgame) May 28, 2023 Given he is 22 years old and probably will put on better performances, he might already next season beat it, but he is still not at some insane level of goalscoring despite what the beginning of the season might have suggested. Also both Salah and Suarez exceeded their xG by a higher amount.
Penalties have to be scored From recollection I know haaland actually won quite a few of those penalties aswell A penalty won and scored by the same player=Same value as a open play goal
Not necessarily He won one penalty. Also the point is about goalscoring abilities which is strictly in game performance. Penalty taking is a separate conversation and it is valubale and adds to overall performance, but that is not the point. If we are talking about performance this season, he is easily worse than Salah and especially Suarez who have done way more outside scoring. He is also worse than few KDB campaigns and Hazard, perhaps even Drogba, Fabregas, etc.
@Sexy Beast If we are actually witnessing Haalands peak in real time and he doesn’t improve on his current level then maybe then there is some substance to your criticism I looked at most of the strikers who scored minimum 34 goals in a single league campaign since 2009/10 and Haaland has the second lowest WS rating of all those players Using 34 goals as a benchmark for something elite seeing as this was R9s highest ever domestic league tally Before haaland broke it it was also a EPL record held by shearer and Cole Edison cavani 2016/17 35 league goals Whoscored rating 7.37 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/24328/History/Edinson-Cavani Erling haaland 2022/23 36 league goals Whoscored rating 7.54 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/315227/Show/Erling-Haaland Gonzalo higuain 2015/16 36 league goals Whoscored rating 7.74 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/19729/History/Gonzalo-Higuaín Robert lewandowski 2021/22 35 league goals Whoscored rating 7.89 Luis Suarez 40 league goals Whoscored rating 8.00 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/22221/History/Luis-Suárez Robert lewandowski 2020/21 41 league goals Whoscored rating 8.07 Robert lewandowski 2019/20 34 league goals Whoscored rating 8.13 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/29400/History/Robert-Lewandowski Zlatan ibrahimovic 2015/16 38 league goals Whoscored rating 8.29 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/3281/History/Zlatan-Ibrahimovic There is definitely something there I think Haaland is doing a lot of what the great strikers of the past generation did in their scoring peak but he is also not doing a lot of things that they did either
That is a great find. I think perhaps you went too restrictive with minimal 34 goals in a season. It would be super interesting to see how well he compares to lesser goals campaigns. I mean, the gap makes the intuitive sense. I am not sure what football algorithms see or dont see specifically there, but he is definitely not doing a lot of things that other strikers do. But I am surprised that Cavani got even worse rating tho albeit, Ive never actually seen him play for PSG at the time.
We would be here for too long Instead I’ll restrict it to strikers who have played in England and scored either less or significantly less than Erling Haaland 22/23 To make this fair I will only include EPL players who have played a minimum of 20+ matches Romelu lakaka PL 2016/17 WS rating:7.50 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/78498/History/Romelu-Lukaku Jamie vardy 2015/16 PL WS rating:7.51 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/106981/History/Jamie-Vardy Erling Haaland PL 2022/23 W.S rating:7.54 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/315227/Show/Erling-Haaland Robin van persie PL 2011/12 WS rating:7.80 PL 2012/13 WS rating:7.77 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/4564/History/Robin-van-Persie Wayne Rooney PL 2009/10 WS rating:7.91 PL 2011/12 WS rating:7.73 PL 2013/14 WS rating:7.62 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/3859/History/Wayne-Rooney Sergio Aguero PL 2017/18 W.S rating:7.81 PL 2013/14 W.S rating:7.71 PL 2014/15 W.S rating:7.67 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/14260/History/Sergio-Agüero Mohammed salah PL 2017/18 WS rating:7.69 PL 2018/19 WS rating:7.57 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/108226/History/Mohamed-Salah Didier drogba PL 2009/10 WS rating:8.32 PL 2010/11 WS rating:7.55 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/4384/History/Didier-Drogba Carlos tevez PL 2009/10 WS rating:7.57 PL 2010/11 WS rating:7.59 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/14167/History/Carlos-Tevez Fernando Torres PL 2009/10 WS rating:7.65 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/4056/History/Fernando-Torres Harry Kane PL 2020/21 WS rating:7.79 PL 2016/17 WS rating:7.71 PL 2017/18 WS rating:7.60 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/83532/History/Harry-Kane Luis Suarez PL 2012/13 WS rating:7.89 PL 2013/14 WS rating:8.43 https://www.whoscored.com/Players/22221/History/Luis-Suárez That’s 20 different PL seasons by strikers rated higher as haaland 22/23 even though he scored significantly more than them This season He was basically a Peak Jamie vardy level player albiet with 10 more goals
Wayne rooneys last world class season before his form fell off a cliff This version of Rooney in 2013/14 would be the best player in the PL today
I missed out the European golden shoe winner Ciro immobile in 2019/20 He scored 36 league goals and was rated 7.57 which is still 0.03 points ahead of Haaland https://www.whoscored.com/Players/70141/History/Ciro-Immobile The relative ‘weakness’ of Serie A compared to the EPL is mitigated by the fact immobile didn’t play for any of the heavyweights in Italy He in fact played for lazio who finished in 4th place and that 4th place position had a lot to do with immobile in the first place Lazio isn’t a regular CL team by any stretch of definition Lazio 19/20 scored 79 league goals and Immobile contributed with 36 goals+9 assists which works out to roughly 57% direct contribution https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Serie_A Erling Haaland for first place Manchester City Scored 36 goals+8 assists with City scoring 94 league goals which means Haaland was directly involved in 47% of his team’s goals And as their whoscored ratings reflect they were pretty much identical in non goalscoring aspects There was no ballon dor in 2020 but you can bet your house if there was ciro immobile would’ve not finished in the Top 10 places probably not even 20 He is probably the best comparison to this current version of Haaland
All of this is very interesting. I have to look at it more closely. I am not sure what do football algorithms value so much to create such different ratings amongst strikers (also including Modrić vs Kroos debate, etc.) My initial thought is that number of touches are overvalued any maybe skewes the ratings a bit, maybe something more specific. I don't see a correlation. I wouldn't say Haaland's season is that far down compared to the best seasons of different strikers, but it is also not some legendary top tier season that many in media are suggesting. I am not sure what I think about all of that atm.
Now that Karim Benzema has decided to leave Real Madrid for Al-Ittihad, has it swayed your opinion about him in this topic? 🚨EXCL: 🟡⚫️ 🇫🇷 #SPL |◉ Karim Benzema a annoncé au Real Madrid son envie de rejoindre Al-Ittihad Club 🇸🇦.◉ Même si au sein de la Casa Blanca, on ne désespère pas de le convaincre de rester une saison de plus… mais les chances sont minceshttps://t.co/rEHfDSbqMz pic.twitter.com/TZWFGUpLqv— Santi Aouna (@Santi_J_FM) May 31, 2023
Why would leaving Europe change anybody’s opinion about him Generally at least since the 90s only thing that matters is what happens in Europe and not outside of it Or maybe you mean he will gain more appreciation now that he has left? That depends on who replaces him and what they go on to achieve individually and perhaps collectively If someone like Harry Kane replaces benzema and improves on benzemas peak output on let’s say his first attempt I can see a narrative being constructed that Kane was better as benzema all along and he just didn’t have the team to fulfil that potential Obviously Benz will always be a legend in Madrid I don’t know of a player who is the second all time top scorer of a club but isn’t considered a legend aswell His career will be remembered like Rauls Perhaps Maybe Raul will be remembered more fondly due to being a home grown talent but there is not much difference IMO
Benzema is great at controlling the ball, exchanging short passing combinations and has a great IQ. But Benzema always lacked the killer instinct. In a way, he resembled Patrick Kluivert. Both were tall, very technical strikers who scored few goals. Benzema has a season of 47 games and 12 goals at Real Madrid. Very low. Until CR7 left Real Madrid, and Benzema exploded in two or three seasons. He deservedly won the Ballon d'Or in 2022, but I still think he should have a more consistent career as a top scorer to be considered at the level of Suarez, Henry, Ibra, even if they don't have the Ballon d'Or. Most of his career, he was just a good supporting player, not a star.
Patrick Kluivert never scored 20 league goals in a single season even once in his career Never Benzema was a regular 20 league goal striker playing with or without Ronaldo He was a vastly more prolific/clinical player as Kluivert Benzema literally has seven seasons with 20 or more league goals Kluivert has 0
I (most certainly) don't think he was as good as Benzema at his best but you are doing him a big disservice now. Kluivert was Barcelona their most productive player in a few seasons (more than Rivaldo if you take out the PKs) and 39 goals in 52 games in 1999-00 cannot be that bad. Factor in his assists and that he usually didn't take penalties, and it is reasonably good what he did. He delivered at all levels (be it CL semi finals, knockout stages on a regular rate or WC semis). Biggest issue is his early decline (Gabriel Milito whacked his knee). And still: not too many players of that generation achieved 30+ CL goals and 45 european goals (without any penalties). It is also not like scoring goals means you are rated. Roy Makaay was the most productive player in 2004-05 but the BigSoccer brigade rates him outside the top 70 or so (zero votes), so do the other usual suspects. No other chart topper of the past 35 years (edit: even if you take out Cr7 and LM10 out of the seasonal lists) is rated anywhere near as low. So will happen with Kluivert or Van Nistelrooij had they scored 100 goals in a season. Doesn't matter for (in modern terms) the clickbait awards. All that is left is being adornments for other ones their greatness, and regarded as a colony for the Premier League. But I don't believe his best level was like Benzema his best level. Just that you misrepresent him and compatriots with many more goals didn't receive a bump perse. As they say, when men perceive things as real, they become real in their consequences.
Lewa Bayern 2019–20 31matches 34goals (30.7)xg 2020–21 28matches 41goals (31.3)xg 2021–22 34matches 35goals (33.2)xg 1.18 average Barcelona 2022–23 34matches 23goals (24.3)xg 0.69 average He dropped 0.48 in his scoring productivity (no injuries along the season). He also used to be above expected goals at Bayern (xg) and at Barcelona he was below. Perhaps because scoring is easier when you're playing in dominant teams, even though the goal situations are similar. One thing is a clear chance to score when the game is 0-0, another is the same clear chance to score when the game is 3-0. Lewa remains one of the most lethal strikers in the world. 0.69 are very good numbers, world class. But the numbers indicate how much difference it makes for a pure goalscorer to get good assists and key passes.
Use non penalty goals per 90 metric to compare accumulation of chances.. Those show that Lewa has dropped his xNPG90 by something like 0,1-0,25 compared to Bayern days. Have in mind that Bayern is a more offensive team than Barcelona and Bundesliga a more offensive league than La liga. It is really inconclusive whether Lewa has dropped off his performance in terms of getting into chances or if age is catching up with him or nothing of the above. And in terms of overperforming xG, this is such a variable metric that changes a lot even for the most consistent of players. In 2018/19 season, Lewa had one of the worst displays of finishing in any league this century. Two years later, in 2020/21, he beats Gerd Mullers record in bundesliga with an all time great finishing display. To associate over/underperformance of xG to the league change, the team change and to the hypotethical 0-0 scenarios is false, especially since it is a such minor underperformance.
Lewandowski's shots p90 dropped from 4.77 in the last season to 4.24 in the current season. Lewa has less chances of finishing at Barcelona than he has at Bayern. There's also the fact that Lewandowski is adjusting to a new team in a new gamestyle and a new league. It is expected that next season he will score more goals
As a fan who watched almost every Lewandowski match for a decade I'm pretty confident that he's actually declining: *He's not elite header of the ball anymore. *He's possibly not elite penalty taker anymore (and Barcelona hardly got any penalties in the league this season anyway). *He's easier to dispossess. *He drops to midfield/wing a lot to create plays, but then doesn't run into penalty box as fast and as often as he used to, so he's not in a position to poach easy goals or otherwise finish plays. *There's some issue regarding him receiving the ball. It kinda weird because I wouldn't say his first touch got terrible, but one way or another something is missing and he doesn't control the ball and carry it as seamlessly as he used to. To be honest, some of this was visible to me in his last season at Bayern too. I don't have any proof to back it up, but I always thought that his xG underperformance in 2018/19 season coincided with him wanting to leave Bayern and go to Madrid. Maybe he lost faith that this team can get him CL, and winning Bundesliga was just meh to him. There were reports that he completely turned his attitude around in 19/20. And in 20/21 he was already CL winner so maybe he was inspired by this or something.