No disagreement there. I'm just providing a baseline minimum value for a coach's worth that I'd think everyone here can agree on. Which I still think even at that most conservative estimate would justify investing some reasonable level of time and resources to aspire above mere competence.
Absolutely. And I hope we get a great coach that elevates the team. I think that's harder to do with a national team than a club, though. And I don't think it is particularly easy to identify that person and sign them. Toss in on top that International Play is small sample size theater -- tiny moments have big impacts -- and it's just a tough eval. For example, I don't really want Jesse Marsch as a coach. But I don't think he's a bad coach, and I don't necessarily think we are going to suffer badly for it in terms of results if we do hire him. At the end of the day, he'll truly be judged on just a few games that honestly can be influenced more by the player execution than the gameplan. Doesn't mean we shouldn't try to get the best coach.
'' Of course, you want the "best" coach you can get. But for tournament soccer the "best" coach may well be one who is super good at motivating the players. Sets up an atmosphere where the players really want to be there. That may me just as impactful as the "best" tactics coach.
I'd say the difference between a good and bad coach is a lot, but the difference between an ok coach and a good coach is sometimes noticeable but not often. The difference between Berhalter and whoever the next coach is will likely be close to zero (unless we get someone seemingly unrealistic like Pep or Mourinho). I also really double down on the players being the key. Pep isn't winning the Prem if he decided to replace Man City's roster with San Antonio's, but he'd dominate USL with it. Edit: I guess in the same line of thinking, I can't see Berhalter winning the Prem with Man City's roster either...
You have to consider fit too. Does anyone think the Argentine coach would have won the WC with any other team? Could another coach have won with Argentina (a bit trickier but considering how many failed with Messi before I think it's a good question)? Mourinho is a really good coach but I think he's a terrible fit for the US team. Pep may even be a bad fit because the quaility of player he is used to may frustrate what he's unable to do with middle of the road national teams. He'd be exceptional with Brazil or Spain and not sure who else.
Right, so replace "bad" with "ok" in my original statement, and what you appear to be saying is that replacing one manager with another doesn't add or subtract as much value as replacing an entire roster with a different level of talent. No disagreement there either. But, to go back to my original point, I'm assuming you wouldn't deny that the value of replacing one competent manager with a good manager is any less than replacing one competent player with a good player. Say the upgrade from Maurice Edu/Rico Clark to Jermaine Jones between 2010 and 2014. Or the upgrade from Jorge Villafana to Antonee Robinson between 2018 and 2022. Again I'm being very conservative there, but I think even those changes added enough value that you couldn't fairly say the overall effect on the team was close to zero.
Mentioned this as possible a week ago https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/former-usa-boss-gregg-berhalter-26997862
I think I would deny it, if I am reading this right. I'd take a slight upgrade to a player over a slight upgrade to the coach. Not sure it's the best example but hopefully it works... I'll take Berhalter starting Pepi over Ferreira before I take Marsch starting Ferreira over Pepi. Give our team a slightly better forward and we do better. A slightly better manager I don't think gets much more out of the team. Emphasis on slightly.
Everyone should know what a "good player looks like" to use Crocker's words. A good coach is much harder to define until after the fact.
even American owners aren't enough for Gregg to nepotism his way into this one looks like... Gregg Berhalter is not getting the Swansea City job, I’m told. He’ll end up somewhere else, tbd.— Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider) May 27, 2023 The Chicago Fire will need a new coach in 2024, and we know Gregg likes coaching jobs where you have to live in Chicago....
My guess is he’ll wait till this summer to see what opportunities are in Europe and if none materialize he’ll end up in Chicago or with the LA Galaxy.
Swansea would never have worked for GB after the Bradley stint. Can't believe the owners seriously considered that.
How about an American coach trusting them to get a real chance? I see old Brazilian league impatience as the biggest fault in the PL and to a lesser extent the Championship. If you pick a coach and the coach doesn't get at least a couple of windows (and time after the window to implement the new players) then you didn't make a reasoned hire in the first place or you are panicking. It doesn't even seem teams are getting much of a new coach bounce now as every team has their own new coach.
If Berhalter took over for Pep in 18/19 and he got the same signings, City wins at least 1 title, most likely 20/21 when VVD missed almost the entire season.
The first word of your post says it all. Like they said of Bush Sr., "he was born on third base and thought he hit a triple". But, no, Gregg is not capable of winning a title in the Prem. That's just hubris. Having the players is one thing. Getting them to play is what counts. How is Sterling doing in Chelsea. How about the Ukrainian guy at Arsenal. How about the guy who went to Bayern? Like Bum Phillips said: "It's not what you know; it's what you can get your players to do". Big Sam, on being hired at Leeds said he knew just as much about football as Pep. Big Sam was right. He does. So what?
Taking over that City squad directly from Pep would be like being born after rounding third. Players are responsible for like 70% of results, luck is responsible for 25%, and managers for 5% (outside of selecting players). Here’s how much of a head start a freshly post Pep City squad would have in 20/21, I think you could manage them to a title.
What you're saying, almost, is that if Pep should leave after winning a title in the last year of his contract, you would take a bet that the guy who assumes command will win a title in his first year, even if it is Berhalter. I say no, Berhalter would find that he can't get the players to do what he wants them to do.
The point is that if the players with their talent just revert to what they know (aka what Pep has taught them over multiple years) they will win.
I guess the flip side is look how quickly Man U’s title winning team fell apart the year after Sir Alex left and he was replaced by Moyes. I believe they fell out of the top 4 entirely if I remember correctly. I think the biggest issue someone like Berhalter would face following Pep is the players not being bought in. It’s incredibly hard to be the guy who follows a great coach. It’s also just a different beast coaching at a big club. It’s not even a knock on Berhalter, but look at someone like Moyes who is a decent coach and has had success elsewhere in the EPL. Whoever follows Pep at Man City is going to have a very tough act to follow.
It'll be interesting to see. I'd say SAF is one of very few managers with more impact than we're giving in this thread. Part of the problem was just how long SAF was there and papered over cracks. So far for Pep, the following managers had success and so did the team. Barca won another treble just 3 years after Pep and Bayern after 4 years. (Which ironically is the same number of coaches they went through... but only 1 "trophy-less" season.)
Since he's coming back for a second cycle, I thought I'd do something I've done for other coaches in the past and document Berhalter's record last cycle against Elo top-40 opposition. (Elo ranking heading into each match in parentheses.) 2019 Friendly: 1-0 win v Ecuador (26) Friendly: 1-1 draw vs Chile (18) Friendly: 0-3 loss vs Venezuela (30) Gold Cup: 0-1 loss vs Mexico (17) Friendly: 0-3 loss vs Mexico (16) Friendly: 1-1 draw vs Uruguay (8) 2019 Record: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses (all home games, one of them competitive) 2020+2021 Friendly: 0-0 draw @ Wales (20) Friendly: 1-2 loss @ Switzerland (15) Nations League: 3-2 win vs Mexico (14) Gold Cup: 1-0 win vs Canada (39) Gold Cup: 1-0 win vs Qatar (40) Gold Cup: 1-0 win vs Mexico (13) WCQ: 1-1 draw vs Canada (39) WCQ: 2-0 win vs Mexico (15) 2020+2021 Record: 5 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss (6 competitive home games; and 2 away friendlies) 2022 WCQ: 0-2 loss @ Canada (27) WCQ: 0-0 draw @ Mexico (19) WCQ: 0-2 loss @ Costa Rica (40) Friendly: 3-0 win vs Morocco (34) Friendly: 0-0 draw vs Uruguay (12) Friendly: 0-2 loss vs Japan (29) [neutral ground] World Cup: 1-1 draw vs Wales (25) [neutral ground] World Cup: 0-0 draw vs England (9) [neutral ground] World Cup: 1-0 win vs Iran (24) [neutral ground] World Cup: 1-3 loss vs Netherlands (3) [neutral ground] 2022 Record: 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses (2 home friendlies; 3 competitive away games; 1 neutral friendly, and 4 neutral competitive games) Total Record: 8 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses Home Record: 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses Away Record: 2 draws, 3 losses Neutral Record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses Competitive Record: 6 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses 3 toughest teams faced in Competitive Play: 1) 1-3 Loss vs 3rd place Netherlands in '22 World Cup 2) 0-0 Draw vs 9th place England in '22 World Cup 3) 1-0 Win vs 13th place Mexico in '21 Gold Cup 3 toughest teams faced in Friendlies: 1) 1-1 Draw vs 8th place Uruguay in '19 Home Friendly 2) 0-0 Draw vs 12th place Uruguay in '22 Home Friendly 3) 1-2 Loss vs 15th place Switzerland in '21 Away Friendly (Note: I've excluded January camp friendlies as I typically do. However, even though I typically haven't included matches from B team Gold Cups when I've done this exercise in the past, I did include matches from the 2021 Gold Cup, because it seemed to me that the top 40 sides we faced in that tournament brought more representative squads than we're typically used to seeing. If you disagree with that decision, then remove 3 wins from Berhalter's record)
Now that Berhalter will be back I very much agree with what he said about our shortcomings at the World Cup. https://www.backheeled.com/what-gre...from-the-usmnt-work-to-do-with-reyna-tactics/ “I didn't think we're good enough on set pieces, attacking set pieces in the last World Cup,” Berhalter said. “That's definitely an area of opportunity. I think offensive transition moments let us down at times in the last World Cup. Our defensive shape was excellent, the high pressure was excellent. But then when we win the ball, how can we more effectively create chances on the counter attack?” Working on these two things and our depth in general and the key priorities for now.
I think you’re arguing against your own 5% claim. On the one hand, we probably massively overrate the importance of a good coach - on the other hand, the Bulls didn’t become the Bulls without Tex and Phil. There’s an art to managing supremely talented teams. Or in SAF’s case, an art to making a supreme team out of players that weren’t always supremely talented. On the other other hand, Belichek never becomes Belichek without Brady and Pop never becomes Pop without Duncan. At the end of the day, if we are going to do better we need better players with more experience. You can blame Berhalter for running guys into the ground to get out of the first round, or you can blame the players for not qualifying sooner. Was Herdman brilliant or is Davies a generational player supported by a solid mix? Bruce Arena probably deserved to beat Germany in 2002 to get to the semis and a date with powerhouse South Korea. Is he a master coach or did he have an excellent mix of experience and young talent? Even if we had made it to the finals in 2002 - what does it say about us as a footballing nation? I don’t want to be Greece, I want to be Croatia or the Netherlands. Develop better players and the coaches will look like geniuses.
The closest analog to Berhalter inheriting City would be of Marsh at RB Leipzig. Leipzig had finished 2nd the season before Marsh's arrival.