Injuries aside, was Peak Neymar better than any non-Messi player this era?

Leaving health/availability aside (which is a *huge* caveat here, I realize), it seems to me that peak Neymar (2017-2018 to 2019-2020) was playing at a level that no one else of this era has gotten to besides Messi.

Some data below on Neymar in those years, compared to Messi (with the Messi years being compared to depending on what years we have data on for the given stat).* Having looked through a ton of stats recently, it has just continually struck me that peak Neymar is the only player that really gets close to Messi in the overall statistical picture—and he really does get quite close. See below:

Average WhoScored Rating League + CL + Major NT Tournaments

Peak Neymar: 8.58
Messi (2009-2010 to present): 8.52

Average SofaScore Rating League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 8.31
Messi (2015-2016 to present): 8.29

Goals per 90 minutes Club + WC

Peak Neymar: 0.822
Messi (whole career): 0.888

Non-Penalty Goals per 90 minutes Club + WC

Peak Neymar: 0.651
Messi (whole career): 0.780

Goals above xG per 90 minutes League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 0.111
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 0.150

Expected Assists per 90 minutes League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 0.425
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 0.410

Big Chances Created per 90 minutes League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 0.815
Messi (2015-2016 to present): 0.883

Dribbles per 90 minutes League + CL + Major NT Tournaments

Peak Neymar: 6.07
Messi (2009-2010 to present): 4.64

Dribble Success Rate League + CL + Major NT Tournaments

Peak Neymar: 62.59%
Messi (2009-2010 to present): 61.03%

Shot-Creating Dribbles per 90 minutes League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 1.06
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 0.99

Goal-Creating Dribbles per 90 minutes League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 0.240
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 0.177

Expected Threat (xT) per 90 minutes League

Peak Neymar: 0.32
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 0.34

Expected Offensive Value Added (xOVA) per 90 minutes League

Peak Neymar: 0.58
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 0.61

Progressive Passes + Progressive Carries per 90 mins League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 17.33
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 15.80

Passes + Carries into Attacking Third per 90 mins League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 12.97
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 12.36

Passes + Crosses + Carries into Penalty Area per 90 mins League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 6.29
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 5.71

Progressive Carry Distance + Progressive Passing Distance per 90 mins League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 508.20
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 454.02

Shot-Creating Actions per 90 mins League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 7.61
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 7.06

Goal-Creating Actions per 90 mins League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 1.47
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 1.12

Touches per 90 minutes League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 82.35
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 76.46

Tackles + Interceptions per 90 minutes League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 1.24
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 0.78

Miscontrols + Dispossessed + Failed Dribbles per 90 minutes League + CL + WC

Peak Neymar: 11.39
Messi (2017-2018 to present): 6.88

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The overall picture here is one of a player that is shockingly close to Messi. In a large portion of these stats, Messi is the best of this generation and no one else has really come close…except peak Neymar, who actually briefly equaled or even surpassed Messi’s averages. And it’s certainly true that no one else in this era has come even close to combining this level of (1) elite goalscoring; (2) incredibly high volume of dribbling and danger creation with dribbling; (3) elite final-ball playmaking; (4) elite progression of the ball to more dangerous areas; and (5) high involvement in overall play. Overall, I tend to think the picture is one of peak Neymar still being a very small bit below Messi, mostly due to losing the ball a lot more often (see the last stat above) and being a bit lower in non-penalty goalscoring. But the fact that there is a genuine statistical debate is something that can’t really be said about any other player of the era, even Ronaldo.

Of course, Neymar missed a lot of time during this era. And IMO that by itself ultimately puts this peak time period for Neymar below the peak time period of a player like Ronaldo (or others as well, honestly). Availability is a very important attribute. But when he was actually able to play, it seems to me that peak Neymar was at a level that arguably no one else of this era reached except Messi. And that fact makes one wonder what might’ve been if he’d been able to stay healthy during this time period and to perhaps keep that form going in later years too.

Of course, one other counterargument to all this is that he was playing in Ligue 1 for PSG, so these numbers were arguably easier to rack up than for other players. I’m not entirely sure that’s right, but it does raise valid questions. That said, it’s worth noting that, in that era, PSG racked up league points at a 84-point pace without Neymar and a 102-point pace with Neymar. So it wasn’t a team that totally dominated without him. And it’s also worth noting that Neymar played really well in the Champions League and the World Cup in this time period as well. For instance, his average WhoScored rating in CL + WC in this time period was 8.514 and his average SofaScore rating in CL + WC in this time period was 8.154—both of which are incredibly high and not hugely different from his average ratings with league matches included too.

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* NOTE: I’ve generally defaulted to including League + CL + WC matches in the stats where I could (since that’s what Neymar played in in this time period), but I differed from that where that data doesn’t exist or where it was much more convenient for me to tabulate a slightly different way (for instance, where WhoScored was my source, I included all major NT tournament matches, because it would’ve been a bunch of extra work to extract out the CA matches from Messi’s stats there). These differences shouldn’t really matter in any meaningful way though, and were definitely not meant to manipulate the stats in any way.

 

I think you’re extrapolating quite a lot from 340 minutes.

Anyways, I’m actually not really of the view that playing for PSG really juices a players’ numbers above playing on other top teams. Their average league opponent is not quite as good, since Ligue 1 isn’t quite as good as the other leagues, but PSG also isn’t quite as good as the very top teams (teams like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, etc.), and often has a pretty unbalanced squad. So it’s not exactly clear to me that there’s a bigger gap in quality for PSG in Ligue 1 than there was for teams like peak RM/Barcelona/Bayern/etc. in their leagues. And, also, a good bit of these stats come from Champions League play (indeed, a higher percentage than for lots of other players, since Neymar missed so many league games), and PSG definitely doesn’t have an advantage there as compared to those other teams. Meanwhile, I don’t really see systematic evidence of great players’ numbers being noticeably higher at PSG than when they’ve been at other teams. So, while I get the point about Ligue 1, I’m not really convinced it’s right. Neymar was in a good situation to rack up great stats, but I just don’t know that it was a materially better situation for that than the rest of this era’s top players have had.

 

Yeah, I agree that Neymar has ultimately had a bit of a disappointing career (through a combination of injury issues and bad luck, IMO). The raw ability in his peak years is absolutely outrageous though, and IMO is far better than one would think just looking at his trophies and individual accolades. I genuinely don’t think anyone in history has clearly been at a higher level over a three-year span than Neymar was in 2017-2018 through 2019-2020. It’s just that he didn’t sustain that level, and even in those years he wasn’t able to play much more than half the matches.

 

It’s not really about the goals though. It’s about the all-around game. It’s extremely rare for a player to be an elite scorer, elite dribbler, elite final-ball playmaker, and elite at progressing the ball. That kind of elite impact across the board all at once is basically only seen amongst the very top players in history. Except that Neymar also did it. He couldn’t stay healthy of course, but when he was able to play in those years he was genuinely playing like one of the greatest players of all time—as evidenced by the fact that he was at a similar level to Messi.

 

I’m not really arguing against this—he’s underachieved and that’s kind of my point. When he was at his peak level, he was actually up there with Messi in terms of how good he was, but he couldn’t stay healthy even in those years and certainly couldn’t stay healthy after that. So the result is that he hasn’t really achieved nearly as much as he probably should have. He hasn’t been the best player on a CL-winning team (though he did play extremely well in the 2014-2015 campaign). He hasn’t even had all that much time of his career where he was the best player on his club team (because of Messi and then later Mbappe). He hasn’t won a major national team tournament, and has only even been a top 3 player at one major national team tournament. He hasn’t played in a World Cup semifinal or final. He’s gotten 3rd in Ballon D’or voting twice and that’s it in terms of podium placement. All of that is true, and it’s not a picture of a top-tier all time great. But I also think it’s true that his actual ability in his peak few years was up there amongst the greatest of all time (unless we count health as part of ability). I don’t actually think those things are mutually exclusive.

 

Those aren’t overlapping time periods. That’s the point that everyone has made to you a million times. Ronaldo was a great dribbler early in his career. One of the very best in the world at the time. And he was a great scorer for most of his career. One of the top few of all time. But there was little to no overlap in those time periods.