Perhaps a different account, but yes. At best, one could be a prince's account that is filled from state coffers, while the endorsements are from another state owned account.
I'll take a run at this one. I say no, it's not a hard cap- it's a very soft cap and here's why. As MLS continues to expand and improve, it sure seems like US Soccer has managed to expand and improve the league's access to quality international competition. This isn't being done through coefficients or within a system. MLS is simply negotiating the terms of new tournaments and then coming up with tie-ins to existing competitions as they go. For one thing, CCL simply expanded and MLS gets to send more teams now. Along with that, Leagues Cup expanded to include everyone from MLS and Liga MX with the top three earning CL spots and effectively gaining slots for their league. MLS is growing, yes- and the number of qualifying slots is also growing, with further growth possible if enough teams are that good. For another thing, 2024 is going to be a big year of preparation ahead of the 2026 United WC. There will be a United Copa America with most of it being hosted in the US, and unlike the last time these confeds teamed up, there is a club component. The top two from the CCL tournament will face the top two from Copa Libertadores in 2024, this will be hosted somewhere in the US, and it will be the first time in forever (if ever) that some of these clubs have taken the field against each other. It's a glorified series of exhibition matches with the outcome being nothing, as of now, but we have seen this before with the beginning stages of Leagues Cup (aka Two Leagues, One Cup). It started as a limited engagement and no tie-in, but then it expanded and it really became something. The Club World Cup is just about to expand, and I think it will be held every 4 years with a lot more teams that qualify. From what I hear. I am guessing that this inter-confed thing will not be a one-off, it will expand, and it will become a secondary opportunity for MLS (and all these other leagues) to get themselves qualified for the Club World Cup. Seattle finally broke through and won the CCL, and they will be playing in this upcoming Club World Cup. I think we're going to see a lot more of this, I know we're going to have a steady diet of international competition that's hosted here in country, and I do believe we can expand beyond 32 teams while keeping the quality of play as high as it needs to be among the best in the league. MLS is not going to qualify exactly 5 teams to their CL every year. That is not written in stone, nor is it written that Liga MX will always win the thing. Those days are over, and MLS is coming with an increasing number of teams that will qualify for it and win it, and this competition with the best of South America is about to enter the conversation. Add to that....this. MLS ownership groups are getting to be scary powerful. Did you know that just a day after Zlatan's contract expired, he became part owner of a Swedish club that happened to be in the portfolio of the ownership group that holds a majority stake in the Galaxy? The Prem may be the most profitable league in the world, but look at who owns all these teams (other than Gulf countries). It's kind of scary to think about from a European perspective, but the pieces are already in place. As soon as the money's right- which will take decades, of course- these American ownership groups have the ability to turn on a dime, take a storied team in the Prem, and turn it into a feeder club for an MLS team that wants to control cost and make favorable deals. This is entirely possible, and the groundwork is Already in place. Today. Just one more thing. MLS executive teams are a bit sparse, aren't they? So many of them are brand new, and legends of the game aren't exactly plentiful. So consider this- think about the biggest fish that are out there. The absolute best players in the world, and some of them may become something like David Beckham or a great coach or an executive or manager. Any of those things- MLS can certainly use more quality in all of those roles. Think of the biggest fish. The most recognizable names. Imagine putting this offer in front of them. Come play for this MLS club and make a lot of money. Do all the winning you can, but while you're doing that, let's start laying the groundwork for what you do after being a player on the pitch. Do you want a significant ownership share in some other club, maybe in your home country? We can arrange that for you. Do you want a coaching, manager, or executive role with the club that you played for? Do you think you can fall in love with this city and then sell the team to them long after you're done on the field? Do you want to have a role in bringing a brand new club into existence within the United States or Canada? Take your pick as you work out what you're doing after your playing days- and I promise you, those options are wide open in comparison with almost anywhere else that you can go in the world.
----------------- I agree with the majority of your comments ! Could you imagine our league if all the rich Americans who are buying EPL teams, put money in our league? As it is, we do have some very well off and connected owners and now with our partnership with Apple, I see things only getting better. I would say we could pass League MX in some degree at some point in some things. Player sales and moves, we have already laid some good relationships with teams and leagues in Europe for example. Another old one that sold many players on MLS coming from certain countries was here you always got paid on time, we have brand new stadiums, excellent training facilities in most markets, health and well being of the players in mind. This allows them to develop , be noticed and then they move on. Been with the league since day one and only more proud as we keep moving forward.
Good discussion about the current level of MLS, I also like the tier system proposed by Filippo; really hard to put a hard rank between different leagues. I believe MLS is top tier 3 at the moment but I expect it to break tier 2 in relative short amount of time; IMHO, 2026 WC will be a massive boost for fan base and MLS growth. I don't see any league outside Europe reaching tier 1 but I would love to be proven wrong.
Tier 1 seems like it's going to be the English Premier League and some sort of pan-continental European Super League sooner than people think. Whether that's good or bad for MLS I'm not really sure, but the global landscape its competing against seems very likely to experience a lot of change over the next decade or so.
I very much doubt ESL (non-UEFA league) will ever happen. I personally hope it doesn't. But the top 5/6 leagues in the world are Tier 1.
I hope it doesn't happen either, but under current market dynamics the rest of those top five leagues and the historic elite clubs within them cannot compete with the EPL and a huge chasm is opening. I have a hard time seeing that being a stable equilibrium, and it's not as if the plot to change it is any secret.
If champions league was the end all be all then explain a move like Aaronson or McKennie from Champion League staple clubs to relegation battling Leeds
McKennie is only there on loan, and was available mainly because of Juventus's accounting scandal. Also, it's not so much that the Champions League trumps money considerations, it's more that clubs that don't have a real chance of playing in the Champions League have to pay a premium in order to get top players.
It will become a bigger deal if teams outside Europe start winning it. I mean, SA teams winning again would spice it up some, but CONCACAF, African, or Asian teams would REALLY say game on. As for MLS, I think it is a legit top 15/20 league in the world. 1-4. Big 4 UEFA: Eng, Spain, Ger, Ita. 5. France. 6-7. Tier 3 UEFA: Netherlands, Portugal. 8. Brazil After that? I mean, there are some leagues that are likely better (Championship, Mexico, Argentina) or possibly so (Belgium, other Tier 3 Euros, Japan, etc). But now there isn't a huge gap. We can see those teams/league from where we are at. I can see top 10 pretty soon. We are co-hosting the next World Cup, and pissibly the next WWC as well. Messi is here. Miami and NYC are building SSS. If Don can get NE & Chicago nice homes, then I think we coukd see more expansion.
MLS is top 15 but I can see it breaking into top 10 in a few years - Rank based on quality of the games The problem is how to break into top 7, in order to break into the top level you need to make a case that MLS can replace the best leagues in Europe... IMHO that is almost impossible to do for MLS or any other league outside of Europe... The Hard Ceiling exists for everybody, not only MLS.
The MLS needs to somehow get into the Champions League. That would really help the MLS attract elite owners that would be willing to spend to create elite teams lifting the whole league.
I like how you think, but IMHO this would be pretty much impossible. There might be a chance for MLS/MX to join Libertadores, MX teams did participate in the past, but travel is a huge problem. Why would UEFA be willingly to help improve MLS quality, why would they do that?
Oh I agree with you on this point. But at the end of the day it comes down to money and market. If it will mean more marketing money then it will happen. And the USA market is huge and wealthy. But I know this for sure, big and little stars care about the Champions League. If Pulisic is to be believed he picked AC Milan because they will be in the Champions League. So that "League" is huge for the top players. But at the end of the day for the MLS to take the next step they need to attract the top players. You do that with money and prestige. And the Champions League is kind of the top of the mountain for "League Soccer".
To respond to the OP, I don't think there is a ceiling. Though it may take a while to get there. But MLS has already come so far, is trending upwards, and the sport itself is growing in popularity, and has massive growth potential in the USA. Apologies, but this is gonna be long. So I am gonna break it down into a couple parts. Assertions first, data second, analysis last. I. Part I: Money Talks It is the reason the EPL is the best league in the world. It is the reason Man City is the best team in that league & the world (though it took a while). It is the reason Real Madrid/ Barca are tops in Spain. The reason Juve/AC & Inter Milan the best in Italy. Bayern Munich in Germany. Benfica & Porto in Portugal, and so forth. The United States contains 5 of the top 10 domestic sports leagues in the world in revenue generation. NFL (1st), MLB (2nd), NBA (3rd), NHL (5th), and MLS (10th). Soccer has 6 of the top 10. EPL (4th), La Liga (6th), Bundesliga (7th), Serie A (8th), Ligue 1 (9th), and MLS (10th). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sports_leagues_by_revenue MLS is the only league on the nexus of those two things. The most popular sport in the world AND the nation that generated the most sporting revenue. MLS is growing in popularity in the States. The last 11 (non- COVID) seasons are the highest 11 seasons in league history for average attendance. The last 8 the highest 8. The last 6 the only seasons over 20k (including this year for all those). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Soccer_attendance The revenue streams are increasing and likely will continue to increase with Messi mania and the 2026 WC coming. As is, MLS is already close to overtaking the NHL in sponsorship revenue: 680 mil to 750 mil. https://en.as.com/soccer/how-much-does-mls-make-from-sponsors-nfl-and-nba-lead-on-revenue-n/ And look at the trajectory of rights deals for TV revenue. 1996-2006: No rights revenue. Though they did get some of the ad revenue. 2007-2014: $18 mil annually + Canada deal. $8 mil per USA + $10 mil per Univision. 2015-2022: $105 mil annually. ESPN/Fox $75 mil per + Univision $15 per + Canada $15 mil per. 2023-2032: $250 mil per season (Apple TV). This figure does not count the $$ from the Fox/FS1/Fox Deportes USA deal and Canadian TSN/RDS deals that run fron 2023-2026. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Soccer_on_television As others have noted, although MLS is improving, it is not even close to the TV deals for other USA sports leagues. The current deal yields (probably) just under $10 mil per team. The last one was under $4 mil. NFL earns over $6 billion annually, NBA $2.66 billion, MLB $1.5 billion, NHL $625 million. The fact that MLS is close to catching the NHL on sponsorship revenue is a good indicator that the next TV deal may be in their ballpark, though we will have to wait a while. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sports_broadcasting_contracts_in_the_United_States All this for a league that is already 4th in total revenue and 8th in total revenue per team. Which leads me to part II.
II. Part 2: MLS is a Top 10 League Financially World-wide. Now, does $$ translate into quality on the pitch? Not directly and not immediately. Do leagues outside of Europe/South America have to overpay a bit to get talent? Yep. Do some leagues have powerhouse teams at the top and weaker ones in the middle/bottom? Yep. Is MLS one of them? Nope. MLS is more uniform in quality, a stronger middle without a huge junp at the top. YMMV on how you rank leagues because of this dynamic. But the dollar stuff, for the most part, is pretty objective. And it is powerfully hard to argue MLS isn't a top 10 league, financially, right now. I am just gonna post the rankings, and the links. Total Attendance: 4th Total Revenue: 6th Average Revenue per team: 8th Transfer Spending Last 6/8 Windows: 8th/8th Median Transfermarket Team Value: 8th Average Attendance: 10th Mean Transfermarket Team Value: 14th Transfer Revenue Last 6/8 Windows: 14th/19th https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sports_leagues_by_revenue https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_attendance_figures_at_domestic_professional_sports_leagues https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/messi/messi-in-miami-where-does-mls-stand-in-the-big-picture For me, the revenue & spending stuff is the most determinative. Avg revenue per team is 8th but very close to 6th, and that is 2022 numbers. Pre-Apple deal, pre-Messi, pre-League Cup expansion. Transfer spending last 6/8 windows is 8th/8th. Total revenue is pretty easily 6th, with only Brazil being in our ballpark. Total attendanance is 4th. Though the # of teams gives MLS an edge. Average attendance is 10th. Those are all objective, and all top 10 or better. The somewhat subjective Transfermarket median team value is 8th. For me, a better indicator than mean value, which is still 14th. Even with that & the Transfer income last 6/8 at 14th/19th outside the top 10, the other 6 indicators are inside, and the last one is trending up. I just don't see how MLS isn't a top 10 league financially right now. Really, top 8 is hard to argue. Now, where it ranks exactly, financially, and where on the pitch are more subjective. Where you come down on the mean v median top v middle issue is likely determinative. Regardless, I'd say the goal should be to best non-big 5 league in the world. With a stepping stone as the best in the Americas. Financially, I think MLS is dangerously close in both counts right now. Brazil being the only real alternative and slightly ahead. But maybe not in the middle. On the pitch? Probably further away, especially at the top. In the middle? Dangerously close right now.
I tried to watch Brazil this summer when I was jonesing for a watch. I do not know how anyone watches that league. The fans are great, the stadiums are pretty full. The talent is good, with a sprinkling of past heros. But damn, the amount of diving and ref stoppages makes it almost unwatchable. Argentina had much better game flow in that regard. I can see why the argies adapt to mls/Europe so well. It's really physical. Also great full stadiums for most part. Very competitive games although river ran way with the league.
The top teams will never compete with the top European teams but the league continues to improve every season. NYCFC 's debut starting XI, March 2015.
What happens if MLS on Apple and the World Cup are huge successes. In a decade we could see a minimum payroll in MLS of $20 million. That would give the lowest spending teams payrolls above all but the top 3 in Eredivisie and the Championship and a third of La Liga and Ligue Un. There would really be no financial reason for any player to move to anything but a top 5 league and we might see a flood of players who don't quite cut it at UCL/UEL level coming to MLS in their early twenties. The question then is what can MLS do to demonstrate that it's a top 6 league given the lack of access to UEFA club competitions?
Over the years many players have talked about our league in positives that are not just money related. Modern new stadiums, modern new practice facilities, safe places for the them and their kids/family can live without being harassed, the fact they get paid in US dollars and get paid on time, good medical and rehab etc.... - I may not have the quote or the person right (I think it was Schelotto with Columbus), when he first saw Columbus Crew training center he said it was equal/better than the Argentina National Team (at the time) - My underlying concern is how does MLS take advantage of the World Club Cup, the World Cup and the Copa all being in this country over the next several years. How do you convert people watching on TV or attending these games into MLS fans if they are not currently?
Once players get past 23 or 24 their prime motivation is probably going to be money. They have ten years left in their career, if they're lucky, at which point they could fall off the edge of a financial cliff. If you get an equal offer from Bulgarian team that trains in a public park and a MLS team that plays in a beautiful stadium with a state of the art training facility obviously the latter is preferable but most will go for the money. Matt Miazga, James Sands, Shaq Moore and Nicholas Gioacchini are "back" because MLS salaries have caught up and surpassed salaries outside the top 5 leagues, plus all the other stuff. Younger players should at least give Europe "a go" but those that don't crack the UCL and UEL will be back in their mid-twenties rather than late twenties/early thirties.
This can already be happening if MLS didn't have so many restrictions to roster building. Teams are already spending big but it isn't distributed proportionally.
MLS can have quality teams like Tigres, America and Monterrey that are spending less than TFC and have deeper rosters with depth. Why does everyone here always think modifying cap rules will have a negative impact on MLS?