It all hinges on whether Rangers want to buy (definitely seems like that is a yes) and whether Bayern decides he's not a Bayern guy based on the evidence, or if there's enough information to justify their buy back option. Considering transfermarkt valued him at 500,000 back in '21 and he's climbed to right around 2.75 million now, I just can't see why Bayern wouldn't pay over to keep him if he continues to produce. What's the Rangers buy price? I never heard that number or maybe forgot it (I imagine it was between 3.5-8 million just spit balling), and considering the current transfermarkt valuation, it wouldn't surprise me if it was as low as 4-5 mill, and for Bayern that's chump change. For a guy with his verstaility (8/10/wing forward/striker/false 9), why not just pay the fee, keep, loan out again to a more challenging environment like the Bundesliga, or Ligue 1 or something, and see how he does in '23-'24 and make a decision then? For now, it seemed like: July-Mid August: Hot start in preseason, champions league qualifying (about 2 goals and an assist in his first about month including the CL qualifying clincher). Mid August-Halloween: Major Dip in form, I believe he got basically 2 goals and 1 assist in 2.5 months of play between mid august and the end of October. January Restart to Present: Has now added 3 goals in his last 6 appearances. Totals: 7 goals, 5 assists in like 2300 minutes. Sounds like the #'s are solid in counting stats per minute, not outrageous, but solid, and that deeper #'s are even better when you look under the hood. I just think as Bayern, I'd keep him for a better price, he's definitely proved to belong as a top player in a pretty crappy league, can he be a solid or a good player in a good league? That's the next test, right now, I do the buy back unless the fee agreed to is much higher than it sounds like it would be (I think Bayern would think about moving on for double digit mill, but why sell for a more likely 4-6 mill? Chump change for a guy w/his potential.
There are several BuLi clubs rumored to be lined up to take Tillman on loan at the end of the season if Bayern makes him available.
They can't buy or sell unless Bayern decides to pass on their option to bring him back, and honestly, I have a hard time seeing why they wouldn't bring him back, as you mention, Tillman is doing well, he isn't bombing out or just looking blah and as such, unless the fee agreed upon was quite higher than that transfermarkt valuation, like orders of magnitude higher, I just would pay the fee they tacked on for the right to bring him back home. Unless Rangers agreed to a quite high fee option, they're probably screwed (at least to me anyway, I can't see why Bayern would agree to sell him for less than double digits which is probably the fee (3-5, 4-6 mill something like that).
It's also kind of pointless. MLS was built and designed in a really odd, hyper non-organic way for a league, like a lot of leagues that pop up in recent decades. All these other leagues have been around for a century or nearly so, and developed organically giving some teams Yankees like level power within the leagues while most of the rest of the sides are in the ----er because none of these leagues developed salary caps or revenue sharing agreements to insure competitiveness opting for relegation and promotion instead. So MLS just stands outside the rest of the world in terms of structure, design, and everything inbetween. It's pointless running comparisons to me for now anyway, what matters isn't where it stands, but in terms of its viability (strong although the new tv deal strikes me as beyond idiotic), and in strucuturing a player development program that works which it has, more or less. So hopefully it continues to grow and evolve and hopefully I'm wrong about how incredibly stupid the tv deal is (the sub is so mindboggingly stupid and self defeating (like USMNT ticket prices for crap friendlies level stupid) but beyond that, yeah, who cares about the leagues. What matters is the league has become profitable and is on solid ground going forward, and seems to be blossoming more or less and has finally 100% embraced the value of being a transfer league. Excellent. Now back to Tillman, a mega steal for us 9 or so months ago, and looking great. I expect Bayern to bring him back this summer, paying Rangers the fee necessary to keep his rights.
The fee has been quoted in Ranger circles as $7M with many ex 'Gers stars saying that they can't afford it. There seems to be a game of chicken being played by Rangers and Bayern.
7 mill is close enough to be tempting, but I'll be honest, I think he's a 7 mill player at minimum right now, it would not shock me at all if he's 15-20 mill by '24. I just don't think Bayern moves on at that price. Pay whatever the over the top number is (7.5, 8? No idea), keep, and then try to sell by '24 for double digit millions if they decide he's not Bayern level (and honestly, I don't see it, I think he's good, but I think he's mid table side in a big 5 league good w/the potential to rise to a fee in that 20-30 mill zone, I dont think he has Reyna/Pulisic level upside, I think he's more McKennie level in terms of pay out (I was gonna add Adams, but I think Adams is gonna make Leeds a ton of money, Adams # was really wonky when it came out, it sounded initially like 13-15 mill before sounding like it got to 20 w/all the add ons, I think he's probably 30-40 mill already in that inflated league, I have a feeling Leeds will end up selling him by '24 w/a total profit of 10-25 million in the bag depending on the total cost of purchase (most likely to me is bought for $20 sell for $35-$50-the key angle with him is not only is killing it over there, he's at the top of the league in all the relevant #'s AND he's a Captain so he has intangibles covered AND he's a flaghship USA marketing guy w/a great sort of Q rating angle-he's significantly more charismatic than Pulisic for example, just like McKennie). I'm going way off topic, anyway, I do think Bayern brings him back and I'd put it at 65/35 they can sell him for double digit millions by sometime in '24, Floor to Ceiling I think he ends up being 10-25 mill in the next 18-24 months in terms of value. 7 mill is a no brainer to me for not selling or close to it (the 2-6 mill was even moreso admittedly).
I would hang on to him too. He's inconsistent still but I can see a pretty high ceiling that I wouldn't want to give away. Another loan to a more prominent club maybe.
The ideal for Tillman is almost certainly neither Rangers nor Bayern, but I'm not entirely certain if that is going to get done given the complexity. I could actually see him playing for Bayern, but I am struggling to see him holding onto real minutes for any period of time without an improvement. It doesn't help that he's clearly best at a central attacking position but he's not in Musiala's class. It'd be nice to get him a step up from the SPL, and the Bundesliga makes a ton of sense. A loan is probably the best to be hoped for.
Worded incorrectly. Like the entire mls is better than the entire Scottish league, not just using a measurement of Celtic and rangers. Because a lot of these arguments are just about those two. When in fact, the rest of the league is not good. At all.
7 million would be up around one of their most expensive transfers ever. As a point of reference, Mikel Arteta was about 7.9 million when they bought him from Barca. I can see why there's some hesitancy. If they were in position to win the SPL and a guaranteed Champions League group stage place (as first place in the SPL is awarded)...............then they'd probably feel financially secure about it. If I'm Bayern, I don't sell at 7. I mean, they sold Chris Richards at 12.
Sounds reasonable but still a game of chicken. $7M is a huge transfer fee investment for current Rangers. Very risky to pay that if in a year Bayern can buy him back for say an additional $10M. Bayern will likely want to season him for another year. Very different for Gers if the upside is to sell Tillman in 2+ years for $35M to $60M to the EPL. I would love to see Malik safely back in the BuLi for a year at a Royal Blue club.
I don't disagree, I just think he's more valuable to Bayern than he is worth it to Rangers. It's kind of like in dynasty fantasy, I can have a guy that's worth the 1.07 rookie pick, but buyers want to trade only the 1.09 or worse for the player, and I don't want to sell for less than 1.04 because I like the guys upside. That's kind of what he is, he's worth more as a hold to Bayern than he is as a buy for Rangers. That's fine, they get a season of a potentially elite player helping them out in an apparently lost season, while Bayern gets him 3500 minutes of regular playing time when he wouldn't have topped probably 800 if he had stuck with Bayern. I agree w/the consensus and tend to imagine that's whats going to happen, Bayern's gonna pay Rangers to get him back (I think that's how the deal works), and then loan him out again a la Richards to Hoffenheim, this time Tillman will probably join a mid table side in Continental Europe (I hope) which would be perfect.
Tillman is still at Rangers on loan so he returns to FC Hollywood in June.. Rangers would first have to exercise their buy option to force Bayern to make a decision. I don't believe that Rangers will take the risk of buying Tillman for $7M due to the low profit upside because Bayern has a manageable buyback clause. Bayern may not want to risk leaving Tillman in Scotland for another year given that the SPL is a break-leg league and it is unclear how much more development he will get there.
Another day another Tillman goal... Great play from @ToddCantwell_10 to keep the ball and send a lovely cross to Tillman who leaves the keeper no chance with a header from close-range.Rangers 1-0 Ross County https://t.co/V1TvCaR99g— Rangers Football Club (@RangersFC) February 4, 2023 MALIK TILLMAN 🇺🇲(2002) OPENS THE SCORING!!! #USMNTpic.twitter.com/Z7vLgWkZQM— Football Report (@FootballReprt) February 4, 2023 Why didn't he start this one 11' SUB: An early change for Rangers as John Lundstram is unable to continue.➡️ ON: Malik Tillman⬅️ OFF: John LundstramRangers 0-0 Ross County pic.twitter.com/6P2m5zCAzW— Rangers Football Club (@RangersFC) February 4, 2023
Remember a month and a half ago when this thread was Tillman vs Roldan (which at least makes some sense) and not Klinsmann vs Arena? Simpler times... Update
Analyze this Michael Beale on Malik Tillman: "Malik has come on and he's been excellent, another goal from him arriving in the penalty box which I'm really pleased with. I'm delighted with Malik. At 20-years-old, every game he's having an impact and that's two goals in two games now." #USMNT pic.twitter.com/jnSvibULKO— Larry Henry Jr (@lhenry019) February 4, 2023
Tillman has a very trustworthy and kind face. I realize I don't recall having seen him speak much if at all. I should look into that, but on top of being a good player he strikes me as a good person... Four minutes later, after a less than extensive search, the only interview I found is this: Yep, fits my prior impression of him.
I like the fact that his accent sounds about 3/4 German and 1/4 American, speaking English to an obvious Scot.
I think some on here are going a little overboard with the valuations and projections. most of their SPL competition would be about the same level as a bad mls team, or worse, while his team’s talent is much higher. He’s also almost 21. That’s not old, but it’s also about the age where you’d expect a guy to start breaking in at the senior level. I can easily see him become a solid player for a mid-level Bundesliga team, but I don’t think he’s the same level of talent as guys like Booth or Paredes.
Not really (in my view), everyone knows he's on 8 and 5 for the season (not great for a crap league) and that he had a big dip in form from around mid august to mid october, did nothing in CL after helping them qualify, not blowing the doors off for the season as a whole. The exciting bit is 4 goals in his last 7 games, and clearly becoming an absolute key component in one of the two flagship sides in Scotland. He comes with a fantastic CV from Bayern's youth teams as well where he was hugely productive, especially pre ACL tear. I think the general sentiment is that his floor is a big 5 roster player and his ceiling is somewhere inbetween regular for a mid table side in a big 5 league and possibly a jump to the next level (Pulisic/Reyna town) but that that next level is probably the least likely of all outcomes. We'll see though. I am a huge Paredes fan as well and have been totally won over by Booth, but its clear to me that Booth is not seen as at the same level as Tillman, period, and that Paredes is much more speculation than Tillman at this point (though I am positive he'll be solid as well at minimum). The great news is all 3 of those guys are ours and all 3 have very high ceilings and have raised their floors substantially w/their play this season.
I’d be very interested to hear why you think Tillman is a tier above booth. booth was player of the month in a much better league, for a team that’s mid table. It took him a couple of months to settle in, but he’s been pretty much the focal point of their attack since October, and he’s delivered the goods against superior opponents. To me, he’s shown more elite characteristics against better competition, and it’s really not close. He’s a bit small, and I don’t think his physical tools are elite, so I don’t think he is a super high potential player, but I think he’s shown a lot more as far as being ready to contribute to a decent team in a top 5 league. Tillman has been good, but he’s not been a central part of their team the same way Booth has, IMO. And doing things with superior talent on his team against far inferior competition is a good bit less impressive. Posters have been talking about him being worth 30 million euros in a few years, and I just don’t see it. He’s been good for a team in a weaker league than MLS. I get why mid table Bundesliga teams would be interested, but that’s based in part on the fact that he’s German. I don’t see him as any sort of lock to be a Bundesliga level starter at this point. Paredes already played pretty well in MLS, which I think is generally more balanced and talented than the SPL. And he did it at a younger age. He hasn’t done a ton for Wolfsburg, but he has been very solid in his appearances, and he’s going against much better competition. His resume suggests that he is pretty much established as at least a decent squad player for a club as big as Wolfsburg. That’s very impressive for a guy who isn’t 20 yet. and I want to emphasize that I’m not down on Tillman. In prior World Cup cycles, he would’ve been a lock for our top 23. I just don’t think the level of competition he’s faced is good enough to say with any certainty that he will be able to stick in a top 5 league, and I don’t think hes been elite in Scotland, but merely very good. I do think he will make it in the Bundesliga in some capacity, but I don’t see elite potential there. I reserve that status for guys like Reyna and Musah, who are already very solid players in top 5 leagues, and are a few months younger than Tillman.
Its purely based on how both players have been handled by the European market. Bayern promoted Tillman to the senior team, they did not promote Booth to the senior team as far as I'm aware of. Bayern eventually moved Tillman to the flagship side of Scotland who'd just made the Europa League Final, Booth went to a middling nothing side in the Netherlands. Tillman was pursued by EPL teams and Rangers, who pursued Booth? The market values/valued Tillman more, and so did Bayern. That's why. Do I think Booth has played better? Kind of, maybe? Honestly, Tillman's performance is hard to evaluate because it's been up and down: July-Mid August '22: Excellent. Mid August-Halloween: Anonymous. '23 Restart: Ridiculously hot. Booth's been much more consistent, so there's that. Transfermarkt agrees w/my valuation (2.75 for Tillman, 1.5 for Booth, neither are remotely accurate in my view), but that's how I see it. I think Tillman has a higher upside and floor, I think Booth is exciting and is laying down a marker right now, and probably the best way to express it is that the perception of Booth summer '22 vs now has grown more than the perception of Tillman has in the same period? So i kinda get your point of view but I definitely see Tillman as a guy whose simply rated more and for a reason, body of work and more but that Booth has done more in this season and definitely grown more in value comparatively speaking (hopefully that bridges the gap between us?).