French publication though(rating a French player in a world cup final) The outcome will almost definitely be favourable to Mbappe I agree though that Mbappe>Messi In the final at least Comparing their respective R16-SF performances is a apples to pears comparison Mbappe played against better performing teams And in the unique context of Morroco performing way beyond expectation and supported by the entire Arabia/middle east population I would say Morroco definitely was a big team They certainly were a big team in the unique context of that specific tournament I dont give a damn about bookmakers(lessthanjake) Is this William hill or a football forum? The ones who gave 5000/1 for Leicester to win the premier league and refused to pay out when they actually won LMAO There is no scientific way of determining which team is superior on the day Football is played on the day Anthing can happen and if there were no upsets there wouldn't even be a gambling industry to speak of in the first place
Let us continue our analysis of Messi's contribution as a playmaker. In "Developing a Data-Driven Player Ranking in Soccer Using Predictive Model Weights", Brooks et. al applied a supervised machine learning model with a dataset that included every single pass completed for the 2012-13 season in La Liga. Of note, they then excluded possessions comprised of less than 3 passes which biases the model slightly against counter-attacking systems. Using this method, they can accurately analyze and predict the value of any pass in its relative contribution to a shot opportunity - this means they can assess value to a pass even if it is the 5th pass in a shot-taking sequence. This is perhaps the best way to mathematically assess the value of passing contribution. In doing so, they found that the best forwards in terms of the shot value of their passing: Rank (a)Offense 1Cristian Tello 2Cristiano Ronaldo 3Sergio Garcia 4Karim Benzema 5Gonzalo Higuain 6Lionel Messi 7Jonathan Viera 8Angel Di Maria 9Nolito 10Jorge Molina
Do you have Source? Tello also only played the equivalent of 13~ games in la liga 2012/13 It's crazy coincidence you mention this guy though Messi produced the best playmaking performance of his career aiding this guy to score a hattrick I think this is the only hattrick of his career This was one of the ATG playmaking performances I've seen to be frank
I think it is important not to misinterpret what this is saying. It is not saying that Tello is better than Messi or Ronaldo is better than Messi. It is demonstrating the average shot value of the players' passing. Messi passes more than Ronaldo and Benzema presumably, but a lot of that passing is just "garbage possession" and is not POSITIVELY contributing to the offense. That is what this means. It is a measure of passing efficiency. Based on this model, for players who played a MINIMUM of 200 passes, which equals the top 15 players by playtime per team, the most EFFICIENT was without doubt Tello followed by the other names. Ie. when Tello made a pass (he made more than 200, so that is a significant volume), he brought more value with that pass. Ozil also ranks above Messi that season, but he is (rightfully) classified as a midfielder so he does not appear on this list. Here is the source: https://www.kdd.org/kdd2016/papers/files/adf0793-brooksA.pdf It's also important to note that the model EXCLUDED passing sequences less than 3 passes. This means if you make an outlet pass or a long ball in a promising counterattack that increases the shot-taking probability, it was excluded - which is a bias against counter-attacking teams.
The source is here: https://www.kdd.org/kdd2016/papers/files/adf0793-brooksA.pdf And just to try to clarify this for you specifically, it’s basically just measuring the average amount that a player’s passes increase the chance that there will be a shot at the end of the possession (it does not care about the quality of the shot FWIW). Which, as the paper expressly acknowledges (when it says the metric “is biased towards offensive oriented players”), is obviously going to result in much higher values for players who play further forward, since they get the ball in positions much more likely to result in passes that lead to shots. It’s not really a good measure of playmaking, but rather is hugely affected by how far up the pitch a player played. Messi obviously plays deeper than other forwards, so has lots more passes in the middle of the pitch that, like the passes of midfielders as a whole in this model, aren’t as likely on average to increase the chance of a shot happening in the possession. Also, the fact that Messi makes more passes per game than anyone near him in that model and isn’t far behind the very top in the average value per pass is strongly suggestive that his passing as a whole increases the chances of possessions leading to a shot much more than anyone else on a per 90 mins basis (as opposed to on a per-pass basis, which is what this paper is reporting out). Meanwhile, to contextualize this further for you @carlito86, there are other machine-learning models that show quite relevant/related information. For instance see here: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.07127.pdf This indicates that there are a few players who may have slightly more value provided per action, but Messi’s combination of value per action and number of actions per game is a complete outlier amongst all players—which clearly results in him providing way more value than anyone per 90 mins. Which isn’t really different from the implication one can clearly get from the first link above (as I explained earlier in this post). And here’s another complex model measuring player value by actions: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.03882.pdf _____________________________ Also, for what it’s worth and because I’m curious if anyone has access to better/more complete data, there’s also this regarding secondary chances created, showing Messi clearly being an outlier amongst forwards: And this from a source already provided actually, showing Messi being near the very top of Europe (and firmly listed amongst the world’s top playmakers) in expected secondary assists: All of the secondary chance/assist data I’m aware of is a bit silly and should be taken with a grain of salt though, since it’s mostly snippets that have been tweeted/reported out in the middle of seasons, and, either way, is not multi-season data so the sample sizes are low. Maybe someone has access to larger data sets on this? Would certainly be interested in seeing them, but they’re probably paywalled behind OPTA.
As we continue our series of analyses on Messi's offensive contribution and profile, let us take a look at the following article: "PlayeRank: data-driven performance evaluation and player ranking in soccer via a machine learning approach" Here, Pappalardo et al. had access to a dataset of 18 competitions over 4 seasons (includes FIFA World Cup 2018 and Ronaldo at Juventus - so possibly 14-15 to 18-19). Their machine learning model first (unsupervised) learns the performance indicators/features of players relative to the team result and learns to identify (unsupervised) the different player roles on a team. Notably, the model "accounts for the possibility of having hybrid roles" in case a player has more than one cluster of performance. The model then rates the quality of the performance on a scale based on the derived weights of various actions performed on the field. The model then RANKED the players in the ROLES that it identified. What the model then can do based on this huge data set is (1) identify the different player roles, (2) classify players according to role, (3) evaluate versatility of the player (how often they switched roles), (4) performance rating and ranking by position. One of the most interesting things that we discover with this is that the distribution of performances HIGHLY clusters at the average, meaning only a tiny fraction of players produced many excellent performances. So, what do we find? The player that produced the highest percentage of excellent performances was: Neymar (21%) The best players (the one with the highest average performance) are also the players with the highest variability. This means the best players are not always excellent, they just have a higher proportion of excellent performances. Finally, the crux of the question: Messi clusters as a Right Forward In terms of the percentage of excellent performances: Messi (13%) Salah (18%) Muller (17%) Performance ratings: Messi 0.393 Muller 0.392 Salah 0.391 Suarez 0.404 Ronaldo 0.402 Benzema 0.399 Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.04987.pdf
This is harassment. Completely unhinged. You also wrote "I will not be engaging at all with the substance of what this person is saying, despite it plainly being meant to refute arguments that I had made earlier in this thread." and yet continued. You cannot even hold yourself accountable to your word.
How? Mbappe squarely outperformed him in the group stages and provided an all-time goalscoring performance - goals that were legitimately impressive and penalties in the final of extreme pressure. Messi passed around better? Sure. Does it squarely outweigh what Mbappe did, no.
He didn't.he was more lethal as a goalgetter, in everything else messi had the upper hand. I am not into those xxg,xyz,x men or rubbish like that. Have watched all matches from both in full(in world cup 2022) and Messi was more involved, had more touches, lot more passes and better pass accuracy, better percentage of shots on target, more key passes and chances created for team mates. Quite naturally sofascore suggests that as well.
I certainly wasn’t planning to engage at all with what you’d said at that point, but you kept going after that (and are still going). You can’t possibly think it is justifiable to demand I not engage with you while you simultaneously embark upon what you have dubbed an extended “series” of posts specifically aimed against arguments I’ve previously made in this thread (arguments which no one was currently talking about anymore). Maybe such domineering and abusive behavior works for you elsewhere in your life so you think it’ll work here, but I simply don’t get bullied like that. If you don’t want to engage with me, then you should stop plainly trying to refute my prior arguments over and over. It’s that simple. And if you can’t help but constantly do that, then that’s your problem, not mine. Ultimately, if you can’t help yourself from constantly trying to refute my prior arguments and yet, at the same time, me addressing a barrage of retorts to my own arguments makes you upset, then you’re welcome to stop posting in any thread I am posting in. That seems like it may be the only solution for you, and I for one would be very happy if you opted to do that. Lol! We should pretty obviously be very skeptical of the precise ratings spit out by a model that has Aaron Ramsey tied for being the highest-rated player in the world for 2015-2018. As for the positional stuff, there’s no attacking midfield positional cluster in the model, and, perhaps as a consequence, it obviously has a very broad conception of “forward” such that it includes attacking midfielders. Indeed, as we can see, it classifies Kevin De Bruyne as a “forward” as well (not to mention even having Toni Kroos spending a significant portion of his time as a “left forward”): In fact, the positional breakdown it provides for Messi looks *very* similar to Kevin De Bruyne, who is unquestionably an attacking midfielder. So this paper very obviously does *not* indicate that Messi doesn’t essentially play an attacking midfielder role.
I am legitimately disturbed by your behaviour. You throw tantrums, insult, post condescendingly, promise to stop replying, then continue to harass me despite asking you repeatedly to just let go, then write paragraphs of self-victimization. I will escalate this to the moderators of this forum, as this is not normal behaviour. I've been posting about Messi from multiple angles, and I am not at all replying to you but analyzing the player. If talking about Messi is perceived as the equivalent of replying to lessthanjake, then I am deeply concerned for your mental well-being. You have posted several posts and I have not addressed a single one of them, yet you continue your tirades and, yet, I still do not respond to your content. Please, stop engaging me.
Fascinating study from researchers that analyzed players' passing motifs (aka combinations), by analyzing data from 2012 to 2015 for 6 European Leagues (huge dataset). I could post the other figures, but in essence, Messi's passing combinations do not cluster with playmakers.
Your 'old pensioners Croatia' beat Brazil and also your dynamic Morocco in the 3rd place game.Although I have opined 3rd place matches aren't of great value but for nations like Morocco still a great honour is a podium finish.
Croatia scored with their only shot on goal against Brazil, which was deflected in (then won on penalties). However, against Argentina, they played differently, attacking the opposition and got done by a non-existent penalty. When considering the performances and victories, we need to contextualize the relatively weak opposition and the soft-penalties every match! Without those, there is little doubt that it would have been a different story.
Why do you do that? Netherlands defended well. Messi's assist to Molina is one of the greatest passes ever at the big stage. It comes against full defense. Netherlands created a 6 man box within 20 m^2 in front of Messi. Every defender was well positioned and did his job. Ake (Manchester City player) presses Messi, does well, but ultimately Messi's vision, perfect timing, perfect passing line, perfect power behind the pass (with virtually no room for error) puts Molina 1v1 with goalkeeper. The difficulty level of the pass is 10/10. The technical execution of the pass is 10/10. The moment at which it happened in terms of importance and pressure is 10/10.. so rather than trying to rewrite the narrative with Netherlands being one of the worst Dutch team ever and Depay not being present, look at what actually happened on the pitch. It's the moment of genius. Whether its Netherlands, Croatia or Zimbabwe.. it doesn't matter. It was a great, textbook defending destroyed by the asbolute moment of genius. No luck involved. Pure skills. And you are very disingenuous.. you just complimented Robben for scoring 2 goals against Spain.. where was the same level of scrutiny of the Spanish team? There was none, because it doesn't suit your agenda. The best player for Spain Xavi has left serious competitive football only year after the wc14, and was sub for the most part in the very next, last season for Barcelona. Casillas was way past his prime at that point. There is no Villa anymore, and so on and so on.. you are just picking and choosing whatever narrative you like with no consistency whatsoever.
I suppose you're not a professional referee so it would be fair for me to trust the members in the referees' forum considerably more. Most of them agreed it was a valid penalty and then there is my opinion too. It 'was'a penalty. Argentina got 5 penalties and just one of them was a bad call.. the one against Poland that too didn't make any difference.
The penalties Argentina got would have been fine if other teams also got such soft penalties every game. Other teams simply did not get such soft penalties consistently every time. You just knew that a penalty for Argentina was coming up each game. A soft touch somewhere, minimal contact, and there it was...a pen. That was the only way this victory was possible for them, and would have been impossible otherwise.
Perhaps little soft, still they were fouls in the penalty area unfortunately(for you).thus you have to live with your hatred for Argentina for another 4 years at least.
Are you sure? https://www.youtube.com/shorts/zUD8BUZwgtM Likewise, I have never seen anything be called as a penalty of the sort: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bZKUywEZhXc This is a collision not a foul, and it is not uncommon to see this in the sport. Never awarded as pen. By the way, I was cheering for Argentina in the final, but I recognize that you are responding to another poster. You can be for a team, and simultaneously acknowledge if they got an unfair advantage.
Why were those so-called fouls not awarded to other teams? Hatred for Argentina? More like hatred for unfairness, favouritism, partisanship. If they won fair and square, no one would be livid.
Dribbling stats per Opta and Fbref, based on data available to me Messi 2017 to 2023 4.58 per 90 (success rate 65.2) Single (and best) season, age 30, 5.56 per 90 (success rate 72%) Career stats per MessivsRonaldo.com 4.60 successful dribbles every 90 minutes Messi World Cup 2014 Age 29 (similar age to Zidane at Euro, and dribbling peak) 5.97 successful dribbles per 90 (63% success rate!) Zidane 2001/02 5.95 per 90 (success rate 87%) - it was previously claimed that this represented "dribbles and run", but I doubt as the number approaches his dribble rate at the Euro playing for a superior offensive team, more touches, in a more open championship (La Liga with Real). If we make the presumption this includes runs, we can infer based on the difference of 5.4 and 4.8, what proportion are dribbles based on the present opta definition. Euro 2000 4.8 successful dribbles per 90 (per recent article in Opta - attribute 24 dribbles) Back in 2000, Opta calculated 27 dribbles so 5.4 per 90 (rate of 77% success rate) vs. Portugal - completed 9 out 10 attempted dribbles (absurd number at that level of competition).
I think it’s undeniable that Argentina got a few borderline penalty calls—things that were legitimate to call but often wouldn’t be called. They did also have at least one pretty obvious penalty they should’ve gotten in one of the games (off the top of my head, I’m pretty sure it was against Croatia) that wasn’t called, and had two penalties called against them in the finals. But, on balance, I think they undeniably came out pretty well in terms of getting penalties called. The thing is, though, that they were pretty clearly the better team in every match they played (with France being the closest, but France was played off the park most of the game and then only stormed back late). So I don’t think there’s any opponent of there’s that can complain that they outplayed Argentina and lost because of a penalty. Rather, there’s opponents that can complain that they got outplayed but maybe could’ve pulled out a victory against the run of play if Argentina hadn’t gotten a borderline penalty call. Which is to say, I think Argentina benefited from favorable referee calls, but was also still the deserved winner.