Olympics and Copa: Do We Prioritize One?

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Maximum Optimal, Jan 29, 2023.

  1. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Indeed.

    Getting overaged players released for the Olympics from Europe can be a big problem. The Olympics interfere AT BEST with a key part of the preseason. At worst, in some cases, with actual first team matches. We haven't had to worry about this issue in forever. :) But if I remember, the Olympics at times interfere with early qualification rounds of Europa League/Champions League. Just as a for instance........

    There's a reason that in 2008 we took 36 year old Brian McBride. Our pool wasn't as deep as it is today, but we did have a group of players that would have made more of a difference. Brian stood out like a sore thumb amongst a group of 21 year olds.
     
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  2. theboogeyman

    theboogeyman Member+

    Jun 21, 2010
    The 2024 Copa will be in America, against much better competition than we face in concacaf. It’s going to be a very realistic preview of what the WC will be like for the involved players. Knowing what the crowds, camp vibe, media attention, etc will be like will be very helpful to preparing for 2026. Also, more experience playing teams like Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil in that environment will help our guys know what to expect in a way that they really were not prepared for against the Netherlands. Those are things that even playing in the Euros, and especially some Asian tournament could not simulate.

    also, our guys are still relatively young, and will not get competitive matches through qualifying. More reps, as a team, against non-Concacaf opposition in competitive matches will not be possible before 2026. This is pretty much it.


    And you bring up guys like Lletget and Zardes, but getting the bench guys reps against elite comp is a good way to see whether or not they can cut it. For example, Ferreira being so quiet against the Netherlands knocked him down a peg from my POV. Not enough to write him off completely, but enough to make me want to give other guys shots before going back to him.

    I don’t want to find out that booth or Tolkin or whoever can’t cut it at the World Cup if it’s possible to test them out beforehand.
     
  3. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    That's one end. But the Olympics are a less important end, but still an end to themselves. Silverware is silverware, and since no one has a ton of respect for our continental competitions, and because the public values the Olympics, it has value.

    Like I very clearly said, we're going to prioritize Copa America. But my point is that the people who claim they are pointless or dumb are wrong. And outside of Europe, that's not accurate to the players or fanbases nearly as much as it is a European sentiment.

    I'd also argue that since USSF's mandate is to generally forward soccer, the Olympics will give exposure to a lot of people who don't really follow soccer.

    I don't think it is false.

    Given the nature of releases, @gomichigan24 's point is right, there aren't going to be a ton of choices. Many people are going to be released for Copa American and not the Olympics.

    But there still will be some choices where the club is fine with one or the other, or a player prefers the Olympics. There are real choices between the two, and I doubt anyone is released for both.

    I don't think there will be a TON of overlap, but there may be a little, especially in the overage players.
     
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  4. rgli13

    rgli13 Member+

    Mar 23, 2005
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    you guys can say the copa is the best comp we are going to get before the world cup all you want (as if anyone, anywhere is arguing is against that), but its not going to make it any more relevant two years out when our team will inarguably be different.

    i dont know what to tell you if ferreira being unable to even semi-regularly score on anyone better than grenada didnt tip you off to his ability...

    i bring up guys like lletget and zardes because they were in the first team two years before the world cup...and two years is a long time. who cares about zim and morris in the copa if they arent going to be at the world cup? or let me put it like this- what does finding a cb pairing/chem, or the wing rotation, a year from now have to do with three years from now? its good for players individually, and hopefully a little chem boost in a vague, general sense(akin to guys playing together at the club level)- but its not a straight line to world cup prep. its just not.

    booth or tolkin arent going to be the same players next summer they will be in three years.
     
  5. theboogeyman

    theboogeyman Member+

    Jun 21, 2010
    You’re comparing last cycle to this cycle as if it’s apples to apples, when it’s not. At the time of the 2018 World Cup, hardly any of our main contributors in Qatar had broken through professionally. It was obvious that there would be a lot of roster turnover, and that we would need to give young guys a chance to beat out the Yueills and Trapps if we wanted to improve.

    Pulisic, Weah, Aaronson, Musah, Adams, Mckennie, Dest, ARob, Reyna, and Turner all are likely to be starting or playing a lot in 2026. This is not a rebuild, like Berhalter inherited. It’s a time to continue building on what’s already established by fixing a few holes in the starting 11 and building depth pretty much everywhere. And the depth that needs to be built is not “beat concacaf teams and finish first in qualifying” depth. It’s “rest a few tired legs and still try to beat a top 15 team” depth. Even friendlies against elite teams won’t provide nearly the same learning experience for players or coaches as playing teams like Uruguay, Argentina, or Brazil in a competitive match would.
     
  6. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    It's a very weird argument to me and I don't really get it either.

    People can debate etc, but I'd look to the last generation to play in the tournament for ideas (Davies for instance) about how to handle the overrage players (they definitely disagreed w/the McBride selection). Historically, we've usually sent a keeper, and other options, but keeper isn't necessary this cycle, more than likely, because basically we have multiple high end young keepers coming along including a guy that's considered one of the best keepers in the world in his age cohort. So then you simply decide on which overrage players would help the most and would be available w/o too many problems (or whom it would help, like in a summer transfer) and pick them.

    The Copa America basically gets what our World Cup 23 (or 26 if they're still doing that) would be if the World Cup was in '24 rather than '26, the U23 team gets our best players 23 and under in '24 across that age deadline that are available, plus a couple of overrage players that make sense, and won't be stupid choices like McBride was 15 years ago.

    Seems simple and straight forward to me. The only problem to my mind is going to be around releases for players, and which guys Under 23 are so damn good, they'll just play in Copa America and maybe (probably) not the olympics. Beyond that there are no other issues that seem super problematic to me to solve (other than what overrage guys to take and why). A good example of a former case is a guy like Paredes who may be too senior of a player in 18 months to merit the olympics and/or have release issues too.
     
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  7. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The more interesting question to me is someone like Scally. If he goes to the Copa America he’s probably not playing a ton behind Dest.

    If he’s released for the Olympics (a very open question), he plays a ton of minutes there.

    I’d still say we are prioritizing the Copa America if we send say Dest and Cannon at right back.

    Is it more valuable to have Scally available to give Dest some rest in the Copa America or to let him play in the Olympics where he’s going to be counted on to be one of the key players.

    Most likely he's not going to get released so he might as well go to the Copa America. Ideally when we are making roster decisions we'll have a good sense of what the Olympic release situation is like for most guys.
     
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  8. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    We don't have to ---- on the olympics to prioritize the Copa America. I think some are just exasperated there is even a question here. The Olympics are basically the U23 World Cup, just like this summer we have the U20 World Cup which some of us care about (me) and others only pay attention if at all tangentially.

    The Copa America is the senior tournament, like the crummy Gold Cup this summer which at least isn't an off year B team one (and happily will involve 3-4 solid teams, rather than the usual just 2 with Canada rising, and Costa Rica giving me the finger in the tournament after I kept shoveling dirt on them). It gets the senior players. The Olympics gets the U23's we can get released for it, the next best options and the 3 overrage dudes. That's how it works.

    I also think one of the reasons people have soft pedaled it is the fact that we've not been relevant at an olympics in soccer since 2000, and haven't won a game there in 14 years due to our qualification issues and the grand mal screw up that was the handling of the '08 version by since disgraced Nowak.

    I value the heck out of the Olympics, but gave up on it after the '21 cycle failed because we simply could never send our best players to qualify and as a result, always ended up getting bounced, then our backups trounced the living ---- out of the region last summer :). It will be great to be there, and w/it being hosted by France, it might just be a bigger deal than usual for Europeans, maybe, do they want France to dominate things (as they might?), who knows, but it's exciting to finally be back.

    But yeah? It's the U23 World Cup, so treat it as such. Guys like Musah, Scally and Reyna might get releases for it, but if not, they're clearly Copa America bound.
     
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  9. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    I think that depends entirely on when they schedule it. If they decide to schedule it mid-July to August like they often do the off year Gold Cups, it's going to have little to no relevance because we won't be able to get our A team for it, so a ton of the relevance there is when WC Qualifiers are scheduled in '25, and when the Gold Cup is squeezed in or even if it is at all or if we abandon the off year nonsense finally).

    Between Nations League craziness, and the WC Qualifiers, more than likely that Gold Cup ends up being shoved into July and if it is, it's a B Team tournament for us again, WC in '26 or not.
     
  10. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think that's a good analogy in terms of it basically being the U23 World Cup and the USMNT has always taken precedence over youth world cups. Hence the fact that Pulisic never played in a U20 World Cup, nor did Reyna. And Pepi likely never will either. Paredes seems like he's track to maybe be in that boat too.
     
  11. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The main reason people talk about someone like Acosta or Zimmerman as an overage player is because we are fairly confident that MLS will release him. Whereas it's way less certain for any European based players.

    Two of France's overage players in 2021 for instance came from Liga MX (Florian Thauvin and 35 year old Andre-Pierre Gignac).

    My general philosophy is that the Olympics are a very high profile event in the US and it'd bring a ton of positive attention to the team if we can make a run and medal. So pick the three best overage players who can help you do so. For this team that's likely to be at center back and at the 9 (if Pepi isn't released or if he goes to the Copa America).
     
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  12. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    It does, most cycles it takes place during preseason and elements of the leagues starting and Europa and CL Qualifying start in mid-july, so the Olympics 100% overlaps w/preseason and with early qualifying and generally with the opening of seasons as well.

    Davies definitely feels the McBride selection made no sense. Coming off injury, not match fit, pale version of himself (apparently so bad that Feilhaber made fun of his finishing w/his shins to Davies and Edu), and the team had Jozy coming off a start turn the summer before at the U20 World Cup where he bagged, I think 4 goals, including 2 against Brazil. And then Davies himself played in the Copa America a year before and was breaking out in Europe at the time. And instead, they went with McBride and Adu and it was absolutely not the better choice. Davies was more of a speculative bet, but an informed one, Jozy was a known stud by '08 and him on the bench was 100% idiocy.
     
  13. rgli13

    rgli13 Member+

    Mar 23, 2005
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    thats a good point. i was thinking of it more long term and we didnt always have a ton of guys at clubs that wouldnt release them- its traditionally been a keeper and a bradley or a jozy or two for most of the modern era. im a little rusty on the olympic squad building mindset since weve not qualified in so freaking long...

    despite everyone ignoring it, i know full well who gets released for what will decide what happens regardless of what anyone prioritizes. my thinking is just go for everyone eligible and when they most likely arent released for the olympics oh well, on to copa.

    i think the relevance of neymar, messi, etc playing in the olympics is that, ironically, higher profile players have more influence with their clubs to be released. so a mckennie may be more likely to get a release for the olympics than, i dont know, mark mckenzie.

    all im saying is in the same way my first approach for olympic eligible players would be for the olympics, id approach the overage players in the same way. everyones losing their damn minds cause i just dont think the copa is some huge boost for the world cup, especially compared to some of our kids having a better chance to do well at the olympics being more important for their development than sitting behind our sr team starters.
     
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  14. Maximum Optimal

    Maximum Optimal Member+

    Jul 10, 2001
    The potential conflicts involve the overage players and the U23 guys who are already established as regulars with the senior team. That covers a lot of players.
     
  15. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    Its interesting, but if he's still w/Bo Mo at that point, I see little chance he's released for the Olympics. He's a starter for them, they won't be cool w/losing him for the whole preseason and some of the start of the season.

    I'd be curious for other examples where it's not like that, but I'm not sure who it might be, maybe a Paredes, but he's probably a starter by then too.

    I think it's presorted by the fact that teams wont be releasing guys if they'll miss the opening of the season. I know there are exceptions, and at that point, maybe we do get a guy or two, but I don't know, it depends to me on whether they're marketing them for a transfer more than anything else maybe?
     
  16. Maximum Optimal

    Maximum Optimal Member+

    Jul 10, 2001
    Scally is a good example.

    If I were to pick 3 overage players, it would be a center back to pair with Richards (Zimmerman, Ream and Miles Robinson are leading candidates). Then I could see the likes of Pulisic, McKennie and/or Adams wanting to play in the Olympics.

    I think it will take a certain amount of planning and diplomacy to get this right.
     
  17. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    I agree with your general point, so don't take this particularly targeted at you. But I would say that the Olympics are something more than the U23 World Cup.

    The U20 (and especially U17) World Cup are tournaments that really only interest the most time invested of fans. There's still a disconnect between Europe and the rest of the world -- I find fans in the former are almost dismissive of prospect watching -- but either way, it's the hardcore of hardcore.

    The games has low attendance, almost all local fans, and the crowd isn't exactly raucous. You have a mixture of talent, but while most players are technically professional, it's not necessarily true that there everyone is a consistent first team starter. They might be getting paid, but they aren't all "pros" -- and the play does clearly suffer for it.

    The Olympics have two key differences. One is the audience: it's not just soccer sickos. In the US, it has mass appeal, and if the US is playing, it'll be showcased. We'll get Bob Costas' reanimated face waxing poetically over the El Paso/Juarez roots of Ricardo Pepi for 20 minutes before the game, and a whole slew of people who don't regularly watch the sport will watch it.

    A run would be meaningful in ways the U20 WC will never be.

    The other is that that extra 3 years is extremely meaningful in terms of quality of play. That is absolutely offset by releases causing a decrease in talent/potential, but the % of goals that are basic defensive/gk mistakes goes WAAAY down.

    All this pales in comparison to a WC or a Copa America, but it's still worth something different than just antiseptic tournament youth play.

    I'd love to send a team with players like Tolkin (or Gomez), Slonina, Paredes, Pepi, etc. if they aren't in line for real minutes at the Copa. Let's reprise Ream and Zimmerman in the back and see where we can get.

    I think I just tired of the constant refrain that nothing seems to have any value unless it's against a Brazil-caliber opponent. I don't understand people who follow a team this closely but also don't value ANY competition except the World Cup.
     
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  18. Maximum Optimal

    Maximum Optimal Member+

    Jul 10, 2001
    At the 9 I think it's pretty simple. If two players are roughly equal send the overage player (Sargent) to Copa and the U23 player (Pepi) to the Olympics.
     
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  19. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think in the past that it was also easier to get guys released for the Olympics because it used to be that clubs were required to release any U23 players (and this was the case in 2008 when we last went). Barcelona actually challenged this in the case of Messi and actually won at the Court of Arbitration for Sport. But Pep Guardiola stepped in and made sure Messi could go anyways. But since that point clubs have not been required to release players. And that ruling came the day before the tournament was supposed to begin and it was not realistic for clubs to recall players en masse.

    There are some exceptions still. Spain requires that players get released (this is how Pedri ended up playing in both the Euros and Olympics). It's unclear whether this rule applies to just Spanish players or to La Liga as a whole.

    The stars are always going to be able to use their sway to get clubs to change their minds. Mbappe has already said he wants to go in 2024 when it's being played in France. And I'm sure PSG will let him. I don't know that any of our guys have the star power to force their clubs to release them though.

    The tournament also just happens late. It doesn't wrap up until August 10th. Copa America on the other hand will probably wrap up a month or so earlier. The way to get guys released is to try and negotiate with clubs and see if you can get a guy for the Olympics instead of Copa America (which they'll likely be mandated to release for). But I think clubs would much rather guys go to the Copa since it doesn't interfere with their preseason.

    I do think the Olympics are valuable, I just think the Copa America is more valuable in terms of the experience it provides to our core group. I also think the quality of Olympic soccer is not as high as it once was given that it's hard to get the best players released. I get that you feel differently and that's just going to be something we disagree on.

    We're probably talking about a relatively small group of guys in terms of being good enough to go to the Copa America but also eligible for the Olympics. I think it's Reyna, Musah, Scally, and Pepi. There's also guys like Tillman or Balogun where it's an open question as to whether or not they are eligible. The other three are Parades, Tolkin, and Booth who are not first team guys right now, but might be next summer.

    The easiest decision is thought that it's a much better idea for Slonina to be starting at the Olympics as opposed to backing up Turner at the Copa America. Hopefully he's loaned to a club who is going to allow that.
     
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  20. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Copa America with both confederations, and hosted in the US, is the second biggest event of the cycle, we should be taking it as seriously as UEFA countries take the Euros...

    1. 2026 World Cup
    2. 2024 Copa America
    3. 2024 Olympics
    4. 2025-6 Nations League (qualifying for the Concacaf-Conmebol final four thing)
    5. 2025 Gold Cup (usually the lesser GC, but WC is a year later and no qualifying)
    6. 2022-3 Nations League
    7. 2023 Gold Cup
    8. 2023 U-20 World Cup
    9. 2025 U-20 World Cup
    10. 2023 Pan American Games
     
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  21. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    #71 Clint Eastwood, Jan 30, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2023
    Who the hell knows................but a year from now we might be wanting to send a guy like Bryan Reynolds to the Olympics. Maybe the U20 RB, Cuevas, starts getting playing time at Brugge. Tayvon Gray of NYCFC. We have a bunch of other RBs in the pipeline. Justin Che can play RB or CB.

    Who the hell knows #2: I'm not going to assume that a year and a half from now Scally is behind Dest on the depth chart. :)

    When it comes to overage players, its impossible to predict who would actually get released. So we can predict things until the cows come home. Doesn't matter.
     
  22. RossD

    RossD Member+

    Aug 17, 2013
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Are we seriously saying we shouldn't take a competitive tournament (even if it's U23) serioulsy? How many competitive tournaments do we get to play in every 4 years? I think that's the same ridiculous argument people make about not having Camp Cupcake. So what if the best players can't make it. We get so few opportunities to get players together we should utilize every single one.
     
  23. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think anyone thinks we shouldn't take the Olympics seriously. Just that with them happening the same summer as the Copa America, there's going to be some questions of prioritization that have to be made.
     
  24. RossD

    RossD Member+

    Aug 17, 2013
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Yeah. Think I overemphasized what I was meaning. Also had no idea they will be played at the same time. Of course, focus on the Copa but send the next best squad to the Olympics.
     
  25. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    With all due respect to Olympics, why should we care about those people? They are either know nothing about any sports, or heard something, but definitely prefer softball to soccer.
     

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