Perfomance at the WC: Maradona `1986 vs Messi 2022?

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by Gregoire1, Dec 20, 2022.

?

Better perfomance

  1. Messi 2022

    8 vote(s)
    13.8%
  2. Maradona 1986

    50 vote(s)
    86.2%
  1. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    So if Messi won WC2010 and Copa 2011 and he lost WC22 and Copa 21 in quarter finals, he would have a much better international career? If your successes in life come earlier they are worth more than latter?

    To call them NT failures is incredibly shallow because Messi, individually, has one "bad" tournament for Argentina in his entire career and that is 2019 Copa.

    People who thought Messi's international career was underwhelming before Copa 21 and WC 22 are morons. Does people think Robben had had an underwhelming international career? Does Modrić have underwhelming international career? No, becuase It's just standards Messi was up against his whole career. Standards that are not grounded in common sense, but the goat fairytales that one player can win match and whole tournament.

    Messi won WC22 because Argentina was great, as a team, as a whole and with a bit misfortune, the same team, the same Messi wouldn't have won it and then Messi's international career would remain underwhelming?

    You are completely wrapped up in outcome bias. If a player X wins, he has played well, if he doesn't he didn't and he disappeared. Add to that standards that "the goat" has to perform every game you get complete shit show.

    Maradona scored 34 goals in 91 games for Argentina and you don't think that he disappered in many important games? He did but you are not aware of them. Does anyone care that Maradona didn't win 1982 WC during his prime?

    Time erases bad performances and what you are left with is only moments of greatness. You are too close to Messi's career because he is still an active player and you are still aware of bad performances because they just recently happened.

    Wait 30 years and you will realize what Messi has achieved on the international level. What will be left are only moments of greatness, which, as it is pointed out, there are a lot. Probably more than anyone else in history.
     
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  2. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    #677 lessthanjake, Jan 27, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2023
    I think this is probably the best version of the argument—and a sensical way of presenting it. But I think a few things are missing from this sort of analysis:

    ________________

    I think it is true that, prior to 2021, “Messi was considered by most to have had an underwhelming NT career for a GOAT-contender.” But the reason for that was pretty simple: He had not won a major tournament (let alone won one while being his team’s best player). The other main GOAT contenders have that. Maradona had WC 1986. Pele had WC 1970 (and WC 1958, of course, though that didn’t quite meet the “while being his team’s best player” criteria). So, for someone at a GOAT-contender level, Messi’s NT career had, until 2021, been underwhelming, because he had not ticked a large box that most other GOAT contenders had. However, he has now ticked that box—and done so twice, winning both the World Cup and the Copa America.

    After having ticked the box, I don’t think it makes sense to penalize him because there was a time when he had not yet ticked it. That’s not a level of scrutiny that other GOAT contenders are put under. For instance, no one says “Well Maradona’s NT career was underwhelming until 1986.” This isn’t a level of scrutiny anyone is put under, because it is an unrealistic one. There’s no one in history that was constantly winning major tournaments as their team’s best player. Having done that twice puts Messi in rarified air, and so to effectively say that his NT career was underwhelming if you don’t consider either of those tournaments is to apply a level of scrutiny that would leave any player in history looking underwhelming. If you take out Maradona’s two best tournaments, he’d be left with an underwhelming WC where his team crashed out in the second group stage, a WC he got kicked out of, and several Copa America losses where he was not the best player and did not make the finals. If you took out Pele’s two best NT tournaments, you’d be left with a guy who was best player at a Copa America his team got 2nd in, experienced very unfortunate injuries in a couple world cups in his prime, and played great in various international friendlies. All of those would be “underwhelming” NT resumes by GOAT-contender standards, but that’s because anyone is underwhelming by such incredibly high standards if you don’t consider their best achievements. It should be no surprise that no one stacks up well with a greatest-of-all-time standard if you take out their greatest achievements.

    ____________________________

    The other theme I see in your post is the idea that Messi played a lot of NT tournaments, so there were “many NT failures.” This is something that could in theory distinguish Messi from others in terms of the above discussion. That is, you can say that taking out his best two tournaments leaves a more underwhelming NT resume because there’s more missed bites at the apple left than for other players. I just fundamentally disagree with that kind of logic though.

    For one thing, Messi actually played great in the vast majority of those “failures.” He won player of the tournament in two of them (WC 2014 & CA 2015), he played undeniably amazing in another one (CA 2016), he won best young player of the tournament in another (WC 2007), and, more generally, the only tournament where he can be said to have not played really well was CA 2019. You can quibble about performances in specific matches in these tournaments, but that’s definitely not a level of scrutiny other GOAT contenders are put under either (in part because we don’t even always have video of all their matches).

    More importantly, though, I just fundamentally disagree with the notion that having the longevity and consistency to play in tons of NT tournaments as an elite player somehow should be used against him. Messi was an elite player as a teenager, as a 35 year old, and every year in between. And he played for his NT in every major tournament they had during that time. Having consistency/longevity as an elite player over a long period of time (and deciding to always play for your NT) is a massive part of being a NT legend. Does that give you more bites at the apple to get NT wins as an elite player? Yes, but he had a lot of bites at the apple because of his own greatness!

    The only way that having lots of bites at the apple could be a negative is if he legitimately was a negative contributor in some of those “failures.” But he wasn’t. His team simply did not win, and his performances ranged from garden-variety-pretty-good-but-not-great (i.e. CA 2019) to multiple player of the tournament performances. In all instances, his team was certainly not worse off for having him, so I don’t see how those should be used against him.

    In other words, if Messi’s NT successes stack up favorably with pretty much anyone else’s successes (which they do, and you essentially acknowledge that above), and the criticism is just that he had more “failures” too, then that’s effectively penalizing him for having additional tournaments where he was a positive contributor (and sometimes even the best player in the entire tournament) as compared to other players who simply did not have the longevity/consistency/etc. as an elite player to even play in that additional number of tournaments. I guess it can make sense if you’re trying to measure who had the highest average success/achievement level when they played for their NT, but that doesn’t seem like the best way to measure NT greatness when a player’s own individual greatness (i.e. through consistency, longevity, etc.) is a huge determinant of how many chances they get.
     
  3. PrimoCalcio

    PrimoCalcio Member

    Milan/Napoli
    Italy
    Oct 14, 2019
    Messi is compared to his own standards, yes, which are GOAT level standards. And by those standards, he came up short on multiple occasions. You don't think Messi ever struggled to replicate his Barca, GOAT-level form for Argentina?

    I don't think I am wrapped up in outcome bias. Messi played really for most of WC14, though he had a poor final when it really mattered and missed a chance that by his standards, would be buried probably 7 or 8 times out 10. The tournament isn't a failure for him in general, but Messi did not show up anywhere near his best level in the Final. I put a lot of weight in Final and knockout performances. It's not the only time that happened in Messi's career, let alone NT career. In CA2021, Messi played really well but had another poor final, just that time his team won and now many forget about it. It can be okay to not perform great in the Final if you played great all the previous matches like CA2021, but Messi not performing in Finals for Argentina was a pattern. I think the WC2022 Final is probably the only NT Final I've seen Messi play to anywhere near his standards. That was his 6th major Final for Argentina (not counting Finalissima).

    It may seem like I'm being overly critical of Messi here, but this is just how I feel as a legitimate fan of Messi. He plays such beautiful football (to my eyes) that I've pretty much always been rooting for him when he steps on the pitch (unless Milan or Italy were the opponents). The truth is is that, as a fan, I was disappointed on quite a few occasions by his most important performances for the NT. For the WC22, in the absence of Italy, I was cheering for Messi and Argentina because I wanted to see him put the struggled past behind him and gain the glory at NT level that I thought his level deserved. I'm glad he finally did, though I don't forget the other times when I was left feeling disappointed either. Maybe I would feel the same for Maradona if I experienced his career as intimately as Messi's, but there is no arguing that there were significant disappointments in Messi's NT career. If somebody wants to put in perspective Diego's NT disappointments, be my guest though.
     
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  4. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    Well said. This is the point that most of us are aware about, but somehow the WC win erases history. In fact, I think his prior struggles only elevate his WC performance. It makes it that much more beautiful.
     
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  5. PrimoCalcio

    PrimoCalcio Member

    Milan/Napoli
    Italy
    Oct 14, 2019
    When you look at Messi's many bites of the tournament apple, he often plays well (though still below his best), but if look at the many tournament Final bites at the apple, he arguably doesn't play very well or make a difference in any until WC22. That is a big deal to me. I was left feeling disappointed by Final performances so many times, and performing when the stakes are highest is a huge criteria for greatness in sports for me. You see in basketball one of the reasons MJ is considered the GOAT is because he won 6 out of 6 Finals and was MVP in all 6. That is greatness. Probably no footballer measures up this well in Finals compared to MJ, but somebody like Pele is definitely closer to it than Messi.
     
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  6. PrimoCalcio

    PrimoCalcio Member

    Milan/Napoli
    Italy
    Oct 14, 2019
    His previous struggles are part of the beautiful narrative of his ultimate achievement: finally lifting the World Cup (and playing great in every knockout match to boot)!. Agreed.
     
  7. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    The goat standards dont mean being perfect and not having unimpressive performances. You simply have to be better than anyone else in history, which is not argument here because nobody is claiming that Messi has a greater international career than Pele...

    Argentina is not Barcelona, that's why he didn't replicate his Barcelona form in Argentina early on. As a player raised in one system his whole early career and being used to a high level football from his teammates, it took him years to adjust and get used to playing with lower quality teammates and different playing styles.. that's rather normal, but eventually he figured it out proving he is capable of playing for Argentina. Since Copa 2011 (when Messi was 23 btw), he was the best player in every tournament except for WC18, in which he really didn't get an opportunity to prove anything, and Copa 19. 5 out 7 tournaments. That's insane.

    Just look at what you are saying.. based on your criteria, why do you get sense that WC22 is the only final in which he performed at the goat, good enough level? After all, he scored the penalty that he didn't earn, was involved in a great TEAM goal for 2-0 and scored a tap in for 3-2. There was no Messi goal vs Mexico moment in final against France yet you get the sense that he finally performed well? That's not outcome bias?

    Messi performed extremely well in Copa 15 and Copa 16 finals. Just as well as in WC22 final if not better.

    Higuain scores this and you have completely different sense about Messi's final and Copa 15 performance:


    That's the goat level right there, that's Messi from Barcelona performing for Argentina, that's clutch, that's Messi leading his team..

    The mentioned final vs Brazil 2021 is honestly the only bad performance Messi had in elimination games for Argentina that I can think of. He was good against Germany, but unimpressive. If you know nothing about football and you watch Copa 15 and 16 finals, you get the sense, this Argentina's #10 is somehow different, better than the rest.



    Your sense is skewed by outcome bias.
     
  8. PrimoCalcio

    PrimoCalcio Member

    Milan/Napoli
    Italy
    Oct 14, 2019
    If my sense is skewed by outcome bias, your perspective is skewed by trying to divorce outcome from performance entirely in order to arrive at a pre-concluded opinion. Any non-football fan can watch Messi in any game for five minutes and see he is not like the others; he is a special talent. Likewise, any non-football fan can watch those two CA finals and see that Messi didn't manage to find a solution to win the game, and ultimately lost. And seasoned football fans can see in these Finals that Messi did not perform to anywhere near his best. And they will remember the same from his other NT Finals, and see the pattern.

    Messi in NT Finals before WC2022: 5 matches, 0 goals, 0 assists, 0 MOTM, 1 win.

    You're going to come to me with a straight face and say this is performing "extremely well" or even near his usual standards?

    In the WC2022 Final, Messi scored a high-pressure penalty, was crucial in the counter-attack goal, and showed character ET, where he scored and grew in influence, when in the past, he has sometimes drifted out of the game in similar situations. And he scored his PK in the shootout, stepping up first, displaying more character. He made the difference for his team this time. The only criticism is him losing the ball before Mbappe's second goal. It's a better Final that either 2015 or 2016.
     
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  9. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    #684 lessthanjake, Jan 27, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2023
    I get your point, but this is an unrealistic standard. No one in history was consistently equalling Messi’s Barcelona standards at NT level for 16 straight years.

    And this gets to a crucial point actually: I think Messi’s NT performances can simultaneously have been disappointing in a sense but also amongst the very greatest ever. And that’s because the sense in which his NT performances were disappointing was always based on an expectation that he’d consistently reach a level at his NT that no one else consistently met. The expectation was basically akin to expecting Messi to be Maradona 1986 all the time. Judging by his club form, that wasn’t actually a totally unrealistic expectation*, but failing to meet that expectation is simply not mutually exclusive with being one of the top few NT players ever.

    _____________

    * Note: It’s not totally unrealistic as an expectation, but it kind of is when you realize that Barcelona almost always had a much larger talent gap with its opponents than Argentina ever did. It’s objectively easier to perform great for teams with bigger talent gaps—for instance, it’s notably easier to score, assist, etc. That’s context that has to be acknowledged (and is certainly acknowledged by me) regarding his club play, but is also something that simultaneously needs to be acknowledged with regards to an argument that his NT career was disappointing for failure to be as dominant as he was at club level.

    I get the point about performances in finals, but I think you’ll find that it’s not at all uncommon for great players to not perform great in major NT tournament finals. Those matches are really cagey matches against great teams and the best players get game-planned around—especially in the more modern era where football tactics are very complex.

    To give some examples: Maradona was not very good in the 1986 WC finals—despite that tournament being the very peak of his career (and probably the greatest NT tournament ever from anyone). Maradona also was not good in the 1990 WC finals (so, since those were his only two finals, Maradona actually never had a really good NT finals match). Cruyff had easily his least effective match in the finals in 1974, in a World Cup that is probably the other main contender for best ever WC performance. That was his only NT final in his career. R9 was great in the 2002 finals, but was famously poor in the 1998 WC finals—which came when he was at the peak of his powers. Zidane was great in the 1998 WC finals, but he was only okay in the 2006 WC finals then was sent off, and was not particularly good or decisive in the Euro 2000 finals (which was otherwise his very peak as a player IMO, and a tournament where he was genuinely fantastic). Romario was fantastic in the 1994 WC, but he was not very good in the finals. I could go on. Honestly, there’s virtually no one that has been great in multiple major NT tournament finals. Pele is the only big example I can think of (and maybe Xavi or Iniesta, but I don’t think they were great/decisive to the level you’d be expecting of Messi). Maybe Gerd Muller in 1972 and 1974, though his performance in the 1974 WC finals was nothing special outside of his goal. And it is much more common for all-time great players to have pretty muted performances in major NT tournament finals—mostly I think because they are very cagey matches, typically with no big talent gap to the opposing team, and the great player is game planned against heavily in terms of tactics (particularly in the more modern era).

    _______________________

    * One other quick note: I definitely don’t think it’s even close to correct that that chance for Messi in 2014 “would be buried probably 7 or 8 times out 10” by him. This is where xG is pretty instructive. Di Maria’s goal in the 2022 finals—which was definitely an easier chance than Messi’s shot in 2014—still only had an xG of 0.38 (i.e. a 38% chance of being scored). Messi’s chance would’ve surely been notably lower than that. And while Messi outdoes his xG more consistently than anyone, even he only outdoes his xG by about 4-6%. So I think it’s fairly safe to say that that WC 2014 chance was probably only about a 30% chance at best, even for Messi (and probably closer to 20%).

    I think the above covers this, but since you mention Maradona, I’ll just mention a few things to put things in perspective here. Maradona was well understood to have been disappointing in the 1982 WC—with Argentina crashing out in the second group stages and Maradona not having been particularly great. He also crashed out early with Argentina multiple times in the Copa America—only even making the semifinals once and never being the tournament’s best player or anything. He got kicked out of the 1994 WC for PED usage. The level he showed in the 1990 WC was nowhere near the 1986 WC (and more in line with performances Messi had in his most disappointing NT tournament(s)), and he was not good in the finals loss. And, even in the 1986 WC, Maradona was not particularly good in the finals. And yet, despite all that, we (correctly) consider Maradona to have been an incredible NT performer. That’s because the bar for being an incredible NT performer isn’t to be Maradona 1986 or Messi-with-Barcelona all the time. No one has done that, so that can’t be the bar.

    I mostly addressed this in depth above, so I’ll just refer you to that.

    The only thing I’ll add is that I don’t think the analogy to basketball is a particularly informative one for these purposes. Unlike in football, it actually is very common for the all-time greats to perform extremely well in the NBA finals. The sports are different and great players in basketball are simply more decisive and harder to stop. Furthermore, those are multi-game series—such that a great player can have many memorable moments in a finals even if they had entire games where they were bad (see, for instance, Steph Curry last year, where he was great in the finals overall but legitimately bad in Game 5). Finally, not that this matters for purposes of this discussion (the prior two points—particularly the first one—are most important), but even with Michael Jordan it’s not really true that he was always great in the finals. I’m a big Jordan fan (I lived in Chicago during all of those Bulls titles) and regard him as the pretty clear GOAT of basketball, but he actually wasn’t very good in the 1996 Finals. He only shot 41.5% for the series (with almost no threes, so this was definitely inefficient). The Bulls basically won anyways despite Jordan (and Pippen) being brick machines, because Dennis Rodman had 41 offensive rebounds in 6 games (Rodman was never going to get Finals MVP over Michael Jordan, but he probably deserved it that year). Jordan also wasn’t particularly good in the 1998 Finals either—again being very inefficient as a scorer. He did have that great sequence at the end of Game 6 (one of my personal favorite sports moments ever), but the overall performance in the finals was not great—he just put up big numbers anyways because he was taking almost 30 shots a game. Over time, people have forgotten all this, though, in favor of remembering the greatness that Jordan did display, and the same is the case with Maradona and will very likely be the case with Messi.
     
  10. PrimoCalcio

    PrimoCalcio Member

    Milan/Napoli
    Italy
    Oct 14, 2019
    The bolded part: I don't think this is an accurate representation of my point. I did not claim anyone needed to be GOAT level for NT for 16 straight years. It's that Messi didn't, with any kind of consistency or in the biggest moments, reproduce his club form at NT level. To expect that he should have at least once in 5 major finals is not unreasonable, and is far away from "16 straight years". It's important to me for great players to be able to perform at least near their best at all levels.

    I did not claim Messi does not a have a great national team career. I think he does, but with caveats. He has a list of great achievements and a list of disappointments to consider.

    About the Finals of other great players, I don't think any of these are at all comparable to Messi playing well below his level in 5 straight Finals. Maradona '86 wasn't a great Final, but it wasn't poor, and I already said that it can be excused if the player was great in all other matches. The difference is that it wasn't a pattern for Diego, but was for Messi. None of the other players had a pattern of under-performing in Finals. Cruyff's Final was perhaps his least good game, but far from bad and he created and scored his PK. R9 had a great Final and was obviously not well for the 1998 Final, which is a freak circumstance and cannot be glossed over. Zidane too had a great 1998 Final, didn't come up short in 2000, and 2006 was obviously a poor decision to get sent off... I just don't see the comparison at all to a pattern of 5 straight Finals below usual performance.

    About the 2014WC chance... I really don't think xG here is so instructive. That kind of chance was Messi's bread and butter at that moment in his career. Most chances have low xG, even chances that are considered good chances. What is the xG equivalent to a mid-range turnaround jumper while double-teamed? Definitely much lower, yet that was MJ's bread and butter, and he still did it in the most crucial moments. I get basketball is only somewhat applicable to football, and I'm not trying to drag Messi here for Messi one decent chance, but I really don't think any statistical argument is going change my mind that Messi missed a solid chance to score in the WC Final that he would back himself to score most of the time. It's the kind of opportunity you know Messi was just praying for.
     
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  11. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    #686 lessthanjake, Jan 27, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2023
    I don’t disagree that “Messi didn’t, with any kind of consistency or in the biggest moments, reproduce his club form at NT level.” But again, I think that’s an unrealistic standard that virtually no one else has met either. For instance, at NT level, Maradona certainly didn’t, with any kind of consistency, produce a form comparable to Messi’s club form. He did it in one tournament (and even there, his final wasn’t any better than multiple finals of Messi you’re referring to as not meeting the mark). So, as I noted, I think you can be disappointed that Messi didn’t reproduce his club form consistently for Argentina, while also recognizing that he is still one of the very top NT players of all time. Those just aren’t mutually exclusive, because basically no one has consistently and in the biggest moments produced a form comparable to Messi’s club form at NT level.

    It’s also a bit odd to talk about it not being unreasonable to “expect that he should have [been great] at least once in 5 major finals,” when that just ignores that he’s played in 6 finals and definitely was great in one of them. We shouldn’t make an argument premised on ignoring a really important data point. So the question more accurately should be whether it is unreasonable to expect him to have been truly great and decisive in *two* out of 6 major finals. And that question seems harder to answer in the negative when you look at: (1) how few players have been truly great and decisive in multiple major NT tournament finals; and (2) consider that a player being unable to make the finals certainly isn’t better than getting your team to the finals and not being amazing there. More on both of those below.

    _____________________

    This is kind of besides the point, but in terms of explaining this phenomenon, I also refer you back to my point about it not being as easy to produce for Argentina as for Barcelona. Barcelona generally had a substantially bigger talent gap to its opponents than Argentina did—particularly as compared to Argentina in finals matches. That makes it significantly easier to generate goals and assists. And that’s ultimately the difference we are talking about. We aren’t talking about Messi being unable to be an alien in terms of dribbling and ball control for Argentina. He was certainly able to do that, including in finals. The difference is primarily just not producing as many goals and assists in these matches. But, given the difference in talent gap, it’s not as easy to do that for Argentina as for Barcelona—particularly when Messi very often had to drop deeper for Argentina to help the midfield (something he also had to do a fair bit in latter CL stages with Barcelona, by the way—where they also didn’t have such a huge talent gap—which also caused him to have fewer goals/assists than normal in those matches). To me, it’s basically the same player but in a context that makes producing goals and assists much more difficult. And he still played really well (as evidenced, for instance, by winning more NT player of the tournament awards than anyone ever). He’s just not as dominant as he was for a team where things were easier. That’s not a surprise, nor is that sort of dominance something others have consistently exhibited for their NT either.

    I’m not sure I understand the idea that “it wasn’t a pattern for Diego, but was for Messi” with regards to NT finals performances. Diego Maradona played in two NT finals. He was not very good in either of them. In fact, the 1986 final was his better one. Messi undeniably has at least one really good major NT final, and Maradona does not, but not being amazing in NT finals is a pattern for Messi and not Maradona?

    More generally, you seem to not really be arguing that all-time great players usually have great performances in major NT finals (and nor could you, since it’s not the case), or that there are many other NT greats with more great finals performances than Messi. Rather, what you’re saying is that Messi had more finals where he wasn’t great. But this just seems to fall into a fallacy commonly used in sports discussions that somehow losing in the finals is worse than losing before that (which is unambiguously the opposite of the case). Is it somehow better for Maradona that he was disappointing in WC 1982 (or various Copa Americas) in earlier matches such that Argentina went out before the finals? Would Messi have been a better NT player if he hadn’t dominated in the 2015 and 2016 CA knockout stages prior to the finals and/or hadn’t assisted Di Maria to beat Switzerland in extra time in WC 2014, and therefore hadn’t made those finals? Obviously not. Making a final is unambiguously superior to not making a final, and it just doesn’t make sense to penalize someone for making a final and not dominating it as compared to someone who fell short before the final (or who wasn’t even elite enough at that stage in their career to have played for their NT in a given tournament). If Messi had more finals than other players where he wasn’t amazing, it is because he made more finals than other players, not because those other players were great in more of them (Messi was great in at least one NT final, and almost no one has been truly great in two NT finals—Pele being one of the few exceptions). Making more finals is a good thing.

    ___________________

    * Two other very minor things: First, Cruyff was not the scorer for the penalty goal in the 1974 final. Second, saying Zidane “didn’t come up short in 2000,” is pretty obviously outcome-bias, since that certainly doesn’t mean he played better in the finals than Messi did in some of the finals he lost. Indeed, we don’t even need Zidane to understand this, as Messi won the Copa America in 2021 with a finals performance that wasn’t as good as his finals performances in losses. You are (correctly) not counting that as a great finals performance, and indeed are including it amongst the 5 finals where he disappointed by not matching his club form.

    We can agree to disagree on this I guess. I personally didn’t even get out of my chair with excitement when I watched that chance live. Didn’t think it was a particularly great chance in the moment, and I still don’t, and I think xG would almost certainly bear out that sentiment. Messi is a better, more accurate finisher than anyone of his era, but no one is such a great finisher (or so loves a particular type of shot) that that was a chance that they’d score most of the time. Messi may have scored shots like that quite often in his career, but he also missed shots like that way more often than that. I’m not saying it wasn’t a “good” chance. It was. But that’s because our instinctive definition of a “good chance” is basically just one that has at least like a 10%+ chance of being scored. There’s a very massive gulf between a “good chance” and one that has a 70-80% chance of being scored (even by a player of Messi’s quality). 70-80% chances are basically just penalties and point blank shots.

    __________________________

    * This doesn’t really matter (and is mostly me just ranting because I think football vs. basketball analogies are interesting), but the analogy to a basketball shot is not really apt, for a couple reasons: Even the most contested jump shot has a higher expected FG% than all but the best chances in football. For instance, even that clear-on-goal Kolo Muani shot at the end of the 2022 final (a substantially better chance than Messi’s in 2014) had just a 30% xG, while the average NBA player would probably still make about 30% of very contested turnaround jump shots. Jordan wasn’t taking shots that had an expected FG% as low as that Messi shot. And even if he was, it’s not really analogous, because we basically know that great players essentially outdo expected FG% much more in basketball than great players outdo xG in football. One of the most interesting lessons of xG is that virtually no one actually systematically outdoes it, while the ones that do only do so by quite small amounts. Indeed, many really great strikers, such as Lewandowski, don’t outdo their xG at all. Meanwhile, Messi, who is the one I am aware of that outdoes xG the most of anyone, still only does so by 4-6%. In contrast, while I’m not aware of actual data on this, I think the best basketball players surely outdo their expected FG% by a lot more than that (the best players are often more than 4-6% above league average FG% for a given range of shot, despite generally taking *harder, more contested* shots than average). Football just isn’t anything like basketball, where superstar players regularly and pretty consistently make shots that average players wouldn’t even try. In football, the best players mostly just produce easier chances for themselves, rather than being better at scoring the chances they get.
     
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  12. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    #687 lessthanjake, Jan 27, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2023
    @PrimoCalcio My above post was long and maybe too unwieldy for us to keep going back and forth with, but basically the bottom line is that, for purposes of evaluating Messi as a NT player, I think we should be comparing Messi’s NT performances to the NT performances of other great players, not comparing them to Messi’s club performances. If we compare to his club performances, then I agree that his NT performances were disappointing, since they weren’t as ridiculously good (which I think is for reasons I’ve discussed in more depth above). But if we compare to the NT performances of other great players, I think he comes out above almost anyone. Those two things can be (and, I think are) simultaneously true because no one else’s NT career met a “play consistently as well—including in big moments—as Messi did for Barcelona” standard either.

    When we get to the actual question of comparing his NT performances to others’, that’s when we get to this idea that, while he may have achieved/won more than virtually anyone, he should be penalized for having “failed” more times, both in terms of number of tournaments he didn’t win and in terms of not being great in more finals. And that’s where we get to the points I’ve made (both above and in prior posts), that (1) longevity/consistency in being an elite player over many years is a good thing and a huge part of being a great NT player; and (2) getting your team to the finals and not being *amazing* there is actually better than not managing to get your team to the finals in the first place.
     
  13. PrimoCalcio

    PrimoCalcio Member

    Milan/Napoli
    Italy
    Oct 14, 2019
    I can't respond to everything here, but the major points:

    It is not unrealistic to expect a great player to produce something near their best at NT level. Maradona is not necessarily the benchmark here. Many lesser (but still great) players have performed as good, or sometimes even better, for their NT than their club. I rate this very highly, because it demonstrates football intelligence and personal character to adapt to circumstances. For these players, the talent gap exists between their club and NT too.

    Next, I said "5 major finals" not in an effort to ignore an important data point which goes against my argument - clearly, I've already praised Messi's 6th final and have insisted that it brings his NT legacy a major boost - but to establish that there was, indeed, a slew of disappointments in Messi's NT career before his 6th final, which, it is apparent, was being argued against. Again, I will reiterate to avoid confusion: the disappointments of Messi's NT career should be considered in tandem with successes. So no, the bar isn't about which players have had 2 great finals. All I am saying, which quite obvious to be honest, is that Messi had 5 finals in a row before eventualy winning which were not so good, and that I, quite reasonably, think that something to consider in evaluating his NT legacy.

    And no, I don't believe I'm holding Messi making finals against him. Indeed, I'm actually intrinsically saying that this is better than not making the final. Refer to me saying that Messi's 2014WC is not an overall failure (obviously, he got the golden ball), but that his poor Final was part of a pattern of poor finals, which to me seems quite uncontroversial to say, is a disappointment for a player of his calibre. He may not have had this pattern of poor Finals without actually making the Finals, but I would consider this even worse for his legacy.
     
  14. PrimoCalcio

    PrimoCalcio Member

    Milan/Napoli
    Italy
    Oct 14, 2019
    I think maybe we're not quite on the same page, still. I am not comparing other great player's NT career to Messi's club form. I only compare Messi's NT to Messi's club form, because I value players that can play at a similar level in NT circumstances as it shows supreme football IQ and personal character to adapt. That is vice-versa as well; good NT players playing well at club level too. So I compare Pele's NT level to his club level, and see that he was consistently great at both. I compare R9 NT's level to his club form; again consiistently great. Even a lesser great player like Pirlo - he was easily as good at NT level as he was at club level, while players like Totti and Del Piero struggled to adapt. I place a lot of value on this. So no, I'm not comparing anyone's NT level to Messi's Barca level except Messi himself. And I don't expect him to replicate it consistently, but only to have gotten close to it once in first 5 Finals, which no matter how we spin it, is the most important, crucial, legacy defining moments when everything is on the line.
     
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  15. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    I think you may be misunderstanding what I meant (apologies for any confusing wording). I wasn’t suggesting we should compare other great players’ NT careers to Messi’s club form. What I’m saying is, in evaluating Messi as a NT player, we should be comparing Messi’s NT performances to other great players’ NT performances, not comparing Messi’s NT performances to Messi’s club performances.

    In any event, ultimately I think you’re making a different evaluation than I am here, such that we are talking past each other a bit. I think it’s fine to like if a player plays as well at NT level as they do at club level. And so if you want to see Messi not consistently doing that as a kind of amorphous knock against him, that’s also fine with me. But what I’m talking about is evaluating how good a player was for their NT in absolute terms, not in relation to their club form. And I’m saying that in absolute terms Messi has been one of the greatest NT players ever. These two things aren’t actually mutually exclusive though. For instance, to illustrate: Let’s say Messi is a 10/10 for his club, and a 8/10 for Argentina, and let’s say that some other player is a 7/10 for their club and an 7/10 for their NT. What you’re pointing out is that Messi’s level goes down with Argentina (while that other player’s level does not—something that you like), while what I’m pointing out is simply that 8/10 is still better than 7/10. In that illustration, both of those things are simultaneously correct. And I think they’re both correct in reality too. I think you’re right that Messi’s performances with Argentina were not consistently as good as his performances for Barcelona, and that I’m right that Messi’s NT career was still better than almost anyone else’s NT career.

    I think the above mostly addresses the first paragraph here.

    In terms of the second and third paragraph here, I’ll just explain a bit more how I’m conceptualizing this, and why I think you must be holding Messi making finals against him in order to conclude what I think you’re concluding:

    The way I see it, Messi’s best achievements for his NT stack up favorably with almost anyone else’s NT achievements. He won a World Cup and a Copa America, winning the player of the tournament award in both, and having a really great final in one of them. That stacks up really well against the NT achievements of virtually anyone else. Indeed, there’s almost no one else in history that has won two major tournaments as the player of the tournament (as well as very few that have had more than one truly great major tournament final). So all that, by itself, pretty clearly makes him one of the top few greatest NT players ever. Therefore, to say he is not one of the greatest NT players ever would require seeing the rest of his NT career as a negative that significantly brings him down. And I don’t really see how it’s possible to see the rest of his NT career as a negative unless you’re holding him losing in finals against him. After all, the rest of his NT career actually involves making four major tournament finals, winning two player of the tournament awards in major tournaments, winning a best young player award, etc. While those achievements aren’t as good as winning tournaments as player of the tournament, those achievements are nevertheless objectively positive additions, rather than something that should bring him down. Indeed, you admit that making the finals is better than not doing so (as, of course, is winning player of the tournament rather than not doing so). And, crucially, not making finals is what virtually all other NT greats were doing every time if you ignore their top two tournaments too. So it’s very hard for me to see how these other tournaments should bring down Messi as compared to other great players, unless making the finals and losing (while not playing amazing in the finals) is somehow worse than not getting your team to the finals in the first place. But of course that’s a premise you and I both reject (you having stated above that you reject it). So, having rejected that premise, it doesn’t make logical sense to me to conclude that the rest of Messi’s NT career besides CA 2021 and WC 2022 is a negative that brings him down compared to other great players. And if it doesn’t bring him down, then I don’t see how it’s possible not to conclude he’s one of the greatest NT players ever.

    Of course, the answer here might be that you do think Messi is one of the greatest NT players ever, but simply don’t like that he didn’t consistently hit his Barcelona form with Argentina. In which case, then perhaps there’s not much of a meaningful difference of opinion between us, since I’m merely arguing that he’s one of the greatest NT players ever while simultaneously agreeing with you that he didn’t consistently hit his Barcelona form with Argentina.
     
  16. carlito86

    carlito86 Member+

    Jan 11, 2016
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    #691 carlito86, Jan 27, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2023
    Players who replicated their club form at international level


    Eusebio WC 1966

    Benfica players in the 1966 Portuguese NT

    Eusebio(benfica)

    António Simões(benfica)

    Coluna(benfica)

    José Fernando Ferreira Pinto(benfica)

    Jose Torres(benfica)

    Jaime Graça(benfica)

    Germano Luís de Figueiredo(benfica)

    Baptista(went on to play for benfica in 71)

    6 of Eusebios benfica teammates were with him in the 1966 world cup





    Gerd muller

    Bayern Munich players in the German NT at some point between 1970-1974

    Gerd muller(Bayern Munich)

    Sepp maier(Bayern Munich)

    Franz beckenbaur(Bayern Munich)

    Paul brietner(Bayern Munich)

    Uli hoeness(Bayern Munich)

    Jupp Kapellmann(Bayern Munich)

    Georg Schwarzenbeck(Bayern Munich)

    6 of Gerd mullers teammates were with him at either all or some of his major NT triumphs namely WC 74, Euro 72 and the WC golden boot in 70






    Johan Cruyff in the 1974 WC

    Ajax players in the dutch NT who Cruyff had played with just prior to his move to Barcelona


    Johan neeskens
    Wim Suurbier
    Arie Haan
    Krol


    Feyernoord players in the 1974 WC squad
    Bearing in mind feyernoord won the 1973/74 eredivisie title

    Van haegenem
    Johnny rep


    Did these players really replicate their club form at international level or did they just play on national teams that resembled their actual club teams?





    Zidane in WC 1998


    Zidane was obviously either overrated,wildly inconsistent or both in Serie A 1997/98

    Juventus Players ranked above him in Serie A 97/98

    Alessandro del piero
    Torricelli
    Peruzzi
    Antonio conte
    Angelo di livio
    Flippo inzaghi
    Luliano
    Didier deschamps
    http://www.dbscalcio.it/sn-risultatiMediaVoto.php

    French players in Serie A 1997/98 ranked above Zinedine Zidane

    Lilian Thuram
    Didier deschamps

    ESM gives him a free pass i think


    We can say the majority if not all players who replicated their club form at international level actually played in teams which fielded many of their club teammates

    or
    with players who were at a very high level

    Rob rensinbrink, Krol,Rep were great players with or without Cruyff
    As was van haegenem


    Zidane is probably just a myth all over
    He was the best player in the world (1998)while at the exact same time not being the best player on his own team(juventus) while not even being the best French player in Serie A 97/98 and not even being the second best French player In Serie A 97/98

    So i think in Zidane unique case he outperformed his normal level by far In international tournaments

    He was nowhere near that good at club level in the first place


    Cruyff,Muller and eusebio performed outstanding at intl level (Not all the time but their best I mean)

    However they weren't AS good as they were at club level simply because while their NTs fielded alot of their club teammates they didn't exactly have ALL of them

    the team as a whole(even the insignificant bit part players) allowed those superstars to be who they were in the first place
    We should remember this


    For the record as good as Cruyff was in WC 74 I don't think that was peak Cruyff.
    The finishing was nowhere near his peak level for one
    neither was the athleticism the same as he was against inter Milan just 2 years prior


    He was a devastating dribbler/athlete here

    Not as much in WC74 IMO

    I say this despite knowing he was the tournament leader in ball progression statistics in 74
    That says more about the players he was competing with then it says about him

    I think 1972 Cruyff completes 7 dribbles per 90 in the 1974 WC instead of less than 5

    Neither do I think Maradona replicated his club form at international level
    Was Maradona ever as good at club level as he was in the 1986 WC?

    Dbs calcio has him as the third best napoli player in Serie A 1986/87 behind bagni and ferrara

    I do mention dbs calcio alot and they can get it wrong sometimes

    However I look at Ronaldinho and he is the DBS highest rated player in la liga during his best seasons
    This goes hand in hand with the public perception at that time

    I look at Cristiano Ronaldo and he is either the best or second best player in the premier league/la liga every season between 2006/07 and 2011/12( and also 2014/15) according to dbs calcio
    The media ratings go hand in hand with the public perception at the time (and of course the sites like whoscored enforce this)

    The media ratings never paint a favourable picture of Zidane
    Not at real Madrid or at juventus
    Not even in one season

    Maradonas highest media ratings came pre 1986 WC which completely conflicts with the idea that he was some outstanding player that led napoli to titles

    He was an outstanding player when napoli were not winning anything and Zidane was probably not an outstanding player at all (beyond a dozen matches)
     
  17. SayWhatIWant

    SayWhatIWant Member+

    Jan 10, 2015
    Imagine claiming one of the greatest goalscorers of all time, a guy who scored 90 plus goals in a year, and scored at an outrageous rate per game who did not have a single goal in knockouts of the WC in his whole career was not disappointing at a NT level.
     
    Doc_Exec repped this.
  18. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Alas, much to your apparent sadness and eternal denial, we are talking about a player who is also so astoundingly good at other parts of the game that he has managed to be player of the tournament in two major NT tournaments that he did not score a knockout-stage goal in. But you of course would judge him only based on whether he’s scored or not—in a desperate quest to find arguments to salvage the last vestiges of a thoroughly defeated and broken agenda.
     
  19. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Perhaps an interesting post on Football-Ratings Blogspot, detailing Spanish average ratings in Classico games between 1970 and 1976 (I know Cruyff played some more after that of course)
    Football Ratings: Average ratings in 'Clásicos' 1970-76 (football-ratings.blogspot.com)

    I have a feeling Zidane's Champions League average ratings would be pretty good for 97/98 but I'm not sure I've seen a breakdown of them - perhaps because it was an Italian team various Italian newspapers would have rated the players in the games though. Maybe @Vegan10 will get to 97/98 and find some ratings from those games even (IIRC he is not that far in yet, but may have more things to add on his Serie A ratings thread, and sometimes before he has found some ratings for Champions League games).
     
  20. lessthanjake

    lessthanjake Member+

    May 9, 2015
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    #695 lessthanjake, Jan 28, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2023
    There’s some interesting stuff here. I do think it’s intuitively almost certainly true that it helps a player perform as well at NT level if they play with a bunch of their club teammates. You could add Xavi and Iniesta to the list of players who replicated club form in a manner that was surely helped by playing with multiple club teammates.

    I will note, though, a slight clarification regarding Gerd Muller. You correctly identify Bayern players who played for Germany in the 1970-1974 tournaments. But Muller actually probably played his best in the 1970 WC, which was a tournament where Germany was only playing two other Bayern players, and one of the two was the GK. The other was Beckenbauer, of course, and even just that connection with another all-time great on the team would’ve been quite helpful, but I just wanted to note that Muller put in a great performance for Germany without having a bunch of club teammates with him.

    In any event, more generally, I think there’s many other factors at play too, in terms of how well a player replicates (or even exceeds) club form for their NT. A few others:

    - Relative Talent Gap: How does their team’s talent gap at club level compare to their team’s talent gap at NT level? A player who plays for a club super team will probably not do as well for their NT (which is of course even more true the worse the NT). This is probably at play for players like Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Meanwhile, a player who plays for a smaller club and a strong NT might actually find NT play easier for this reason. For instance, this is probably the case for someone like Dunga.

    - Creative Freedom: Is the player the center of attention for their club? Often, such players find it hard to replicate the same quality at NT level, because they usually aren’t the center of attention for their NT and therefore do not have the same creative freedom and cannot exert the same influence. This the case IMO for players like Totti, Gerrard, and Lampard. In theory, the opposite could also be the case too—with a player who gets more creative freedom for their NT. Am having trouble thinking of a great example, but Hagi may be a good example, as may Zidane himself actually? Either way, in a lot of cases, this factor would tend to go in the opposite direction as the first bullet point above (since you tend to get more creative freedom on a less talented team), so in some cases the effects might cancel out.

    - Fit of Personnel: Does the player’s NT have players who suit their style of play and fit well with them? At club level, if you’re a great player, you’re pretty likely to have a team that’s intentionally built to work well with you. But your NT can’t really choose their players, so some players simply get this at NT level more than others. Xavi got Iniesta and a team of players very skilled with tiki-taka, for instance. I’ve talked about how Zidane worked best with an elite DM to win the ball back and allow him to have fewer defensive responsibilities and more creative freedom. Basically all of his club trophies were won with Makelele or Deschamps, and he happened to have them for France as well, which was surely a big help. A negative example of this may be Cristiano Ronaldo not necessarily always having the athletes on Portugal to run with him and utilize his great athleticism on the counterattack. This factor is pretty intertwined with your point about having club teammates with you—typically your club teammates will be players that fit well with you.

    - Luck & Randomness: There’s also just sheer luck/randomness. We judge players based on NT tournaments that are a short period of time every couple years. Injuries can keep a player out or affect their form a lot. More generally, someone just having a bad month of form could have that month be their whole major NT contribution for years. And vice versa for a player just having a great month. Furthermore, in short tournaments, big moments matter a ton, but big moments often involve a lot of randomness/luck in football, so you can get lucky (or unlucky) and have that moment define your NT career. For instance, I think Robben and Iniesta experienced the two sides of this coin with regards to the 2010 WC finals.

    - Manager Tactics: Managers matter in football, and I think they can really affect how a player’s form for their NT is perceived. For one thing, I think there’s a higher level of variance in manager quality at NT level than at club level. At club level, the very top teams (where virtually all the top players play) do sometimes have bad managers, but they usually fire them quickly and keep the good ones for a while and so they typically have someone good. On the other hand, NTs tend to have manager selection be a very political process that doesn’t always result in getting a good manager, and the nature of NT play means that even a bad manager often stays on for a while (i.e. at least one major tournament). Getting a bad manager for even one major tournament can result in a player looking relatively ineffective because their manager’s tactics are ineffective and/or make bad use of them. Argentina in 2010 is an example of this, but there are others too. Relatedly, even a generally good NT manager can give a player a suboptimal role for them (perhaps to accommodate having all the country’s best players in at once or something), which might make that player look less good. Or maybe it’s not necessarily a suboptimal role, but is one that doesn’t produce the numbers of the player’s club role, and therefore creates a perception that the player is playing much worse compared to their club form than they necessarily are. I think Messi in WC 2010 is a good example of this—Maradona had him play a much deeper role than he was at club level (i.e. one that was much harder to score from), and while that’s actually a role Messi can play well in, the lack of goalscoring for Messi in that role certainly affected perceptions of how he had played.

    There are surely other factors too, but just mentioning some.
     
    Gregoire1 and PDG1978 repped this.
  21. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Actually, I remembered Bugs Bunny already did provide those Zidane 97/98 Champions League ratings from two prominent sources (it's possible Vegan10 would have them from Guerin Sportivo though for example too and/or other sources), so.....

    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39970643
    La Stampa 7; Gazzetta dello Sport 6.5
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39970654
    La Stampa 5; Gazzetta 5.5
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39970657
    Gazzettta 6.5
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39970662
    Gazzetta 6.5
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39970666
    La Stampa 4.5, Gazzetta 5.5
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39970670
    La Stampa 7, Gazzetta 6.5
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39972760
    La Stampa 6.5, Gazzetta 6.5
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39972962
    La Stampa 7.5, Gazzetta 7.5
    (I think Inzaghi is getting the hat-trick bonus from both sources there probably to be fair!)
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39973383
    La Stampa 7.5, Gazzetta 7
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-9#post-39973415
    La Stampa 6, Gazzetta 6.5
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/zinedine-zidane-review-1996-2006.2006080/page-10#post-39975577
    La Stampa 6, Gazzetta 6.5

    I guess the remaining La Stampa grades wouldn't deviate much from the two 6.5 ones handed by Gazzetta (the trend seems that La Stampa is more likely to move away from a 6.5 in both directions, which might be true in general rather than just for these Zidane CL ratings I think, and it might be he did have a 7 from them in one or both matches, but equally it could be he had a 6 in one or both). Anyway the calculations for La Stampa from 9 matches, and Gazzetta from all 11 are as follows:
    La Stampa average: 6.33
    Gazzetta average: 6.45

    And the combined average, going game by game (in effect assuming La Stampa gave 6.5 for the missing ones, which would bump up the La Stampa average a little to 6.36...but like I say it could be higher although could even be lower too - it does seem when a performance is deemed good La Stampa more likely goes a bit higher though; in reality the calculation is without those two La Stampa grades anyway, but with the weighting done as if they were 6.5 grades or as if the ratings for those games have the same weight as the 2-source ratings from the other games anyway, not less) = 6.41

    As a comparison, Del Piero's combined average (also in effect considering the missing La Stampa grades to be the same as the Gazzetta ones which might be a bit out) = 6.4 (nearly identical: from one less game as he didn't play the home game vs Manchester United that Juventus won 1-0, with Zidane assisting Inzaghi).

    So a good to very good average for Zidane (and Del Piero) - not spectacularly high, and with a couple of lower grades in 'dodgy' Juventus performances/results dragging things a little lower (and keep in mind that Italian sources don't go crazy with high grades, unless there is substantial end product and seemingly goals scored help more than assists by default with that - Bugs Bunny has picked out some of the positive comments and highlighted the footage etc though of course in that thread). It's up on Zidane's Serie A average from the DBS Calcio sources (that will include both these plus at least a couple of others; probably Guerin Sportivo ones too I assume for example which like I say Vegan10 perhaps will be able to show for the Champions League games although I'm not sure....and I didn't double check today he hasn't already or exactly what point he got to on his thread....).
     
    lessthanjake and Gregoire1 repped this.
  22. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Good points I think, though I would say don't forget 'player form' which is a factor in and of itself I think (and player fitness sometimes has an impact on it). Not to say that a player will be able to shine as much at Intl level as for a stacked club necessarily (or "look as good" perhaps - that's one up for debate to an extent though maybe, in some/most cases I guess), but sometimes they'll just be in bad form or shape compared to their best times anyway....
     
  23. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    I don't want to seem like I 'completely' agree with everything in the post, but also don't want to get into any petty arguments anyway lol (but I might deviate to some extent on how much C.Ronaldo's team-mates were a negative factor for Portugal, or in how much credit Iniesta might get from me - perhaps a little more than implied I mean actually for WC2010....while not entirely discarding the comments made...if that makes sense, for example).

    Just clarifying since I gave the rep and said good post, so it can seem like a 'total' agreement.
     
  24. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    In general I think Messi has rarely played at super-ATG level in World Cup games (Nigeria 2014 might qualify for example though?), though did seem closer to that kind of 'special' level in some CA 2015 games I thought (I didn't see as much of CA 2016) in the way he was playing. How much of that is about his own form and how much about the circumstances is up for debate/discussion perhaps. He didn't play at super-ATG level in every Barcelona game of course, but sometimes did play extremely well or seem a truly out of the ordinary player. There is a difference in that stats were easier to accumulate for Barcelona of course though, even when not playing especially brilliantly.
     
    SayWhatIWant repped this.
  25. Sexy Beast

    Sexy Beast Member+

    Dinamo Zagreb
    Croatia
    Aug 11, 2016
    Zagreb
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Croatia
    #700 Sexy Beast, Jan 28, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2023
    Results:
    Germany 1-0 Argentina
    Chile 0-0 Argentina
    Chile 0-0 Argentina.
    Argentina 1-0 Brazil
    Argentina 3-3 France

    Do you see patterns and differences?

    Again just look at the words you use.
    And "beautiful", "narrative", "showed character", "scored first penalty", etc

    I dont have to argue for CA finals I just have to stay on the point you yourself made that WC22 final was great enough performance. Compared to performance against Real Madrid in 2011 in ucl, its bs performance. Compared to performance against Bayern Munich 2015 ucl, its a bs performance. Compared to performance against Liverpool 2019, its a bs performance.

    Anyone who saw Messi at his best for Barcelona knows that a tap in, penalty, "Showing character" and being involved in a team goal is underperforming. YET, you get the sense he was great, hmm. He found the way to win. I guess.

    Yes. He telekinetically moved the ball towards Martinez's foot in 120+ minute:


    Kolo Muani scores that and you are here arguing that Messi played bad.

    It's like this:

    Messi's performance + his teammates' performances + opposition's performance + random element (luck) -> outcome -> narrative -> sense of individual performance.

    There are 4 things that influence outcome of the game and as you can see, Messi's perofrmance is just one of 4. There are also 10 other teammates of his and 11 oppositions with equal amount of legs and level playing field. Plus good old luck.

    The only way to judge player is by judging every moment for itself. Did he make good decisions and was he technically proficient.. you add up those and you get the sense of performance regardless of goals, assists, outcome or whatever because certain matches are tough and defensive with minimal risks invovled that have 3, 4 fairly good opportunities to score and thats it. And there are more open games with pelnty of room to operates as an attacker.

    Try to guess which final was which.

    He missed a good opportunity to score against Neuer but its not like he has never missed a chance for Barcelona. Give him multiple, 4, 5 half chances against that Germany and he will score, but he didnt have that.

    And if you are going to say thats not possible in wc final.. watch Ronaldos 2002 performance vs Germany:


    Ronaldo misses 3 great chances in the first half then scores a tap in and then finally does something of quality for the 2nd goal.

    And you are probably thinking, look Ronaldo scored 2 goals in final. He found the way to win. He was great for Brazil.

    Outcome bias devoided of any analysis and context.

    This Ronaldo btw, is apparently one of those players Messi doesnt have a better international career because Messi hasnt performed as well in finals.. come on man.

    "Messi missed a chance against Germany" is the kind of standard Messi is up against on international stage. Come on.

    Thats not last second layup to win a basketball match. Chances in football are missed all the time. As demonstrated by Ronaldo
     

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