YNT-Eligible MLS Players ('01-Younger) 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Indeed. Plus: Its high time that we view a move to Liga MX for a player like Leyva as a sideways move AT BEST.

I mean, for Pete's sake, Leyva plays for the CONCACAF Champions. He's going to the Club World Cup. He's already on a team better than Pumas. I think there are fans that have a hard time accepting this reality.

[Leyva is more than 2 years older than Vargas. Its OK for us to like the trajectories of both of them.]

A reminder: Bryan Reynolds, who'd actually done very little in MLS.........................was sold for 8 million plus incentives. Its OK for MLS clubs to price gauge. The rest of the world does it. 2 million shouldn't be enough to pry Leyva away from Seattle. Double it to even begin talking!! 4 million plus huge incentives was the deal for Paxten Aaronson.

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for Seattle selling Leyva if the price is right.

 

He has one year left on his contract pretty sure. 2M would be a great deal for Seattle if they can’t extend him.

I’d be curious to see what teams have interest in Leyva. It’s telling that it’s an unimpressive team in Mexico.

 

I think Leyva's father also played some ball in Mexico, right? Club America? Something like that?

Most of the contracts MLS signs players like this to are of the 3 plus 2 options variety.
Since he was signed to start the 2019 season, you're probably right. 2023 would be the fifth season on that first contract. So they do have a decision of extend versus sell. If they choose not to extend that could result in "take the best deal possible."

I just don't like Liga MX as a destination for our young players.

 

Well, being "low ceiling" doesn't mean that won't be right. In fact, if he ended up a good player but low ceiling, it would make sense that he's more effective earlier than most, yet might not have the top-end talent of some others. Maybe thats true. Too early to tell. I think if he doesn't add more end-product, that'll be true, but he's only 19, so we'll see. He has the technique, soccer IQ, and defensive ability. Given he's halfway between a 6 and 8 and not a true deep-lying 6, he needs to be more effective in the final third.

Seattle's biggest problem last season was that their best players are starting to decline and are old/becoming injury prone, if they weren't already. Quite frankly, people try to blame these young players for why they didn't make the playoffs, and its a tired old cliche. Seattle has very obvious problems that anyone can see. When all your key players are in the 27-36 range, it's plan to see why you won't be successful, if you have a bad season. If you rely on these players so much and they don't produce for one reason or another, you'll continue to see the same problem crop up if you don't address it as opposed to blaming the younger players who don't even start regularly and are not counted on for big contributions.

So you're curious to know which teams are interested and then you actually only name the teams that have bid or shown current intent to bid during a small window (when there's no active effort to sell him) in an effort to discredit him?

Why force the guy to Mexico? This reporter has constantly stated he has interest in Europe.

 

I wonder if this played into Lagerway's thinking too. Smart to leave Seattle at its peak and join Atlanta in a relative valley.... I think without Garth they might be more likely to turn the page and use more youth. Can't expect the same hit rate on prime age signings to last forever.

 

sorry meant which European teams. And it will be telling if/when we find out which class of teams those are in terms of how he is viewed by global scouts. Right now we have data point of one and it isn’t very impressive.

I can’t name teams I don’t know and haven’t been reported.

 

For the record, I've seen no one blame the young kids.

Seattle missing the playoffs was a combination of CCL hangover and injuries to key players.

You are right that they are aging, but Morris, Roldan, Paolo, Arreaga are all pretty much in their prime and Ruidiaz at 32 isn't old for a striker. Lodeiro is in the decline stage, and that's an issue.

I do think they are in the last couple of years before a rebuild, but if they come into the year healthy, they will be fine.

The personal issue people see for Leyva is that he's definitely behind Joao Paolo to start at CDM, and he was behind Obed Vargas. I know you don't agree with the latter, but Schmetzer does. Some people put Josh Atencio ahead of him as well, but I think he actually got more time at CB than CM last year.

That said, Vargas is coming back from a back injury, and Roldan may swing back to more of an attacking player once Joao Paolo comes back. There's definitely a backup CDM and/or a backup 8 role for the taking for all three young players. That 8 role may graduate more to starter the less Lodeiro plays (and Rusnak slides forward).

Kelyn Rowe is really the only non-starting, established CM vet if Roldan stays forward.

Pumas is better than anyone else in Mexico, but it's still a bad move. Belgium makes a lot of sense to me if he wants to move, and the $2M is largely meaningless to Seattle, I'd think. I'd take an upside laden deal with a Belgian club -- and I'm sure there's interest -- loan with option or sell on fee -- and I'd push for Belgium as well if I were Leyva.

 

Also............the parity in MLS is such that it doesn't take much to go from champs to chumps. Also, not much to go in reverse.

Seattle is the kind of team that can right the ship quickly.

They finished 11th in the West.....................but had a positive goal differential.
A weird season.

 

Jonathan Perez update: four months since surgery; feels like he's another month away from being game ready #LAGalaxy

— Damian Calhoun (@DamianCalhoun) December 28, 2022

 

Do we have DOBs for the SuperDraft picks? Curious, at least as far as the first round goes because I can't see many beyond that making a roster, let alone a difference in MLS, how many of the US kids are 2001s (or 02s).

I know most of the American GA kids are young enough for the USYNTs, but curious about some of the seniors and redshirt juniors who got picked like Duncan McGuire, Owen O'Malley (GA but can't find a DOB), Abdi Salim, Cole Jensen, Herbert Endeley, Xavier Zengue, etc...

It's a longshot they'd crack the U23 team, but stranger things have happened and if they have a strong start to their pro careers, ya never know.

 

This was the first year that the draft came and went without me even noticing it.
Saw some twitter posts and thought "was the draft today?"
Maybe it's because I expected the 2023 Superdraft to be held in 2023.

FC Dallas did its trick of drafting its own academy players again.

 

RSL joined them this time but with the added trick of paying Atlanta for their pick to do so.

 

Old DA match reports are still online unlike the player profiles. You can get YOB info from them. The following list is incomplete but has a lot of the American players that were drafted.

 

LA Galaxy continue their time honored tradition of signing nearly washed vets who have played for Greg Vanney. We’ll just have to hope that they can find room for both Neal and Ferkranus on Los Dos this year.

Sources: LA Galaxy closing in on a deal to sign free agent center back Chris Mavinga.

Mavinga, 31, made 124 MLS appearances with Toronto FC, a mainstay for the 2017 treble-winning team. Would reunite with Greg Vanney in LA. One of the top FAs, soon off the board. pic.twitter.com/UF13PXW1p1

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) January 3, 2023

 

Here's a move we all like.
MLS again going to the USL to grab intriguing young players.
Something that rarely happened, but we're seeing more of (DIego Luna, Brooklyn Raines, etc.).
Long may it continue.

Sources: FC Cincinnati sign rising left back Isaiah Foster from the Colorado Switchbacks.

Foster, 19, made 22 USL Championship appearances with the Switchbacks last year. pic.twitter.com/YnlDfdNJdq

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) January 4, 2023

 

RSL signs 07 Luis Rivera to a first-team contract. Notable as he just signed to the Monarchs about 5 months ago.

https://www.rsl.com/news/rsl-sign-defender-luis-rivera-as-homegrown-player

I think it's likely RSL will sign another LB before the season starts but FWIW, right now he's the backup LB to 32 year old Bryan Oviedo.

 

With Pierre and Rivera, does that now put 12 homegrown players on first team contracts? Nice.

Let's get to work, Delentz.

— Real Salt Lake (@realsaltlake) January 6, 2023

 

Gave Segal to NYCFC from Koln II reportedly a done deal. Beni Redzic currently on trial @ Koln II. Contract with Dallas expired on New years

report here: https://t.co/BAJdHkSh62

— BLUE BALLS NYCFC (@BlueBallsPod) January 8, 2023

 

Gabe Segal is the son of American soccer power agent Dan Segal of Wasserman, last heard from trying to spin his side of his client, Gio Reyna's, story.

Before Stanford, Gabe Segal played youth soccer for Bethesda SC in Maryland, where one of his coaches was Matt Pilkington, now the head coach of NYCFC II.

 

One of our own, here to stay ✍️ @dumbomoving

— New York City FC (@newyorkcityfc) January 11, 2023

 

Hey everyone, been a little while.

With MLS coming, I was looking at some data. Found a couple interesting things.

I was looking at how many minutes a birth year gets over time. Looking back since 2013, the most minutes by a birth year in MLS are:


I thought this was interesting - 1997 is clearly a big piece for MLS (those 45k minutes are roughly 5% of all minutes available). The other thing I like about this data is that it indicates the real depth of a birth year. 1997 isn't really a year with top end talent - you have CCV and Antonee, but those guys are developed outside of the US. The best domestic product is Miles Robinson, and the only other guy playing at a high level abroad is EPB.

From that perspective, I think you'd consider 1997 to be a roughly average birth year, and yet, I think it's highly valuable to have years like this with lots of depth, even if the top end talent isn't there. It's a better indication of the health of your system than a few outliers. 45k minutes in MLS is a lot of guys filling up roster and making a lot of money. Robinson, Yueill, Parks, Ebobisse, DeJuan Jones, Dotson, Williamson, Glad, Herrera, Lennon, Pineda, Marcinkowski, etc.

What's important here? I think it's important that 1997 was still a year when good players went to college, or did some wacky European route. Very few of the guys above did the normal MLS academy -> homegrown route - from who I remember, only Glad and Sebastian Saucedo had that and became solid pros.

So if we can do this well with a year where guys had their development capped, what about the years that come after it?



1998
1998 is a year of outliers and luck for us. 1997 has 3 players playing in Europe, with one being an American-developed player. With all of those minutes, they produced 1 guy who plays at Troyes now. And yet, 1998 has Pulisic, McKennie, Mihailovic, Cannon, Wright, Trusty, and de la Torre in Europe. That's 7 guys who would all be starters in MLS (probably). Even if they all played in MLS, 1998 is still behind on minutes.

The guys who are in MLS and putting up minutes? Vazquez, Farfan, Kessler, Nealis, Felipe Hernandez. Not a ton of high level talent, but these guys are playing, and still developing.



1999

This is what people traditionally refer to as a bad birth year. It's hard not to agree. There's only Adams, McKenzie, and Vines in Europe - interestingly, those are all guys that took the now traditional route. Aside from them, there's only 5 guys getting 1k minutes in MLS - Pomykal, Maher, Dorsey, Fernandez, and Servania. To me, this is a growing pains year. Only a couple academies were even trying - RBNY, Philly, and Dallas, and they each produced solid players.


2000

A great year with top end talent in Europe that was domestically-produced in every way - Aaronson, Weah, Sargent, Richards, Dike, Sands, and the u20 guys. And yet, still, in 2022 they still had a very strong year in MLS (4th most for an age 22 year behind '91, '97, and '95) with guys like Ferreira, Durkin, Amaya, Cerrillo, and Lindsey, but also a bump from alternate path kids like Celentano, Ian Murphy, and Benjamin Kikanovic.


2001
People consider this to be a bad year. From a USMNT perspective, I'd agree. The European group is only Reynolds, Booth, and Tessmann. And yet, I'd probably argue we got unlucky with top end talent rather than failing to produce players:



It's a lot of player that don't excite many people on these boards - Flach, Morris, Harriel, Bender, the Dukes, Campbell, Vassilev, Pulskamp, Berhalter. That results in by far the most minutes for a 21 year old group. But these guys are solid pros, and it wouldn't be suprising if a couple become high level MLS contributors, and get a few caps. With this many guys getting this many minutes, you're going to have late bloomers. You're also going to get the college kid bump this year, which'll help.

2002 and beyond

Once you get to the younger groups, a pattern becomes clear - we're having record years (2002 has the record age 19 season, 2003 has the record for 16/17/18), but we're selling so many kids at these ages that the minutes aren't growing linearly.

2002 has Reyna, Scally, Busio, and Bello abroad now, the latter two who played a good amount in MLS first (plus Musah). That make sit looks like 2022 was a bad year, but it's only slightly behind the pace of 1997. Even when Tolkin leaves, you'll see many other guys grow to become large contributors. A guy like AOC still has many years to catch up to a guy like Brandon Vazquez.

2003's age 18 year was pretty remarkable, and 19 was pretty good too, but they've sold Pepi, Paredes, Aaronson, Che, Clark, Nyeman, and Sealy. 7/14 of the 2003s that played in MLS in 2021 are no longer in the US. And yet, with guys like Gutierrez, Cowell, McGlynn, Edelman, Pierre, Leyva, and a bunch more, this is still a strong MLS year that will only get better.

The 2004s are mostly a combo of Slonina and Wiley, and to a lesser extent Owen Wolff and Jackson Hopkins.

 

Great data. The creme de la creme of each birthyear goes to Europe by their early 20s. There is a lot of variance there. There should be less variation at the levels below that (which stay in MLS through their prime seasons). And yet there appears to be quite a bit. I'd be curious about the two birthyears slightly older than the 1997s (the 1996s and 1995s).

In addition to the 1997s, the 1987s and 1990s appear to have been very productive at the MLS level. Those were mediocre vintages for national team players with the notable exception of Michael Bradley (class of 1987).

I'm trying to figure out if there is a conclusion to be drawn about the talent in the right-hand tail of the distribution.

 

Jhon Duran to Aston Villa for $18m + 4m add ons for Duran, after Slonina to Chelsea for $10m +5m add ons... the latter opened up a starting job for Chris Brady, do the Fire have any homegrowns who could similarly benefit from Duran leaving?

Aston Villa have announced an agreement to acquire wonderkid Jhon Duran from the Chicago Fire. Deal pending medical and personal terms. Deal is $18m + $4m add-ons, per source.

Duran, 19, is already a senior Colombia int'l and had 8g/3a in 1,363 minutes for the Fire. pic.twitter.com/IugqXs99FQ

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) January 16, 2023

 

If it's anyone, it's Victor Bezerra. 22 yr old who was a goal every other game guy in both college and MLS Next Pro.

He'd still be behind Przybylko at least. And you'd figure the Fire reinvest some of that generous sum on winning some now.