Yep....Gareth Bale's PK against the US was a perfect example of this....Turner guessed right and the PK's was still too powerful for him to stop. Too many keepers take themselves out of the play by guessing, when in reality many PK's are so poor that if they waited and reacted instead of guessing and diving, they'd stop the PK easily.
IMHO, GKs need to have multiple strategies (as do kickers). The GK isn’t going to stop a well kicked PK unless they guess, but guessing has some risks. It’s helpful to have the kicker know the GK may be guessing, as it puts more pressure on the kicker to put it closer to the post. But guessing too often (hello Spain!) makes the GK vulnerable to the shot straight up the middle—which was 2 of the 3 makes against Spain. I don’t think Turner’s effort is an indictment about guessing at all. I haven’t gone back to look, but I don’t think his was a pure guess, but rather a read during the run up. And had he not gone when he did, it would have only meant he was farther away as the ball sailed into the net. I’d add that it isn’t just guess or don’t guess. When I played HS soccer our coach got a pro GK to come talk to our GKs, and we talked about strategies (back then what GKs could do was more minimal as the Laws/rules required the GK to have feet still until the ball was kicked). GKs can just guess and know they are going to one side. They can just wait until the ball is kicked. But there is a lot in the middle. They can feint at kickers who pay attention to the GK. They can read the run up. They can read the plant foot. The best GKs are doing those different things at different times to keep the kicker off baalanxe as much as possible. A GK who always guesses is going to have those balls just go up the middle (hello again Spain!), but a GK who always waits is going to have no chance at all at even a medium well taken shot. Mixing it up and knowing the tendencies of kickers is how they gain an advantage.
I find it a little eye-opening that PGMOL went out immediately to note the injury and try to put any other theories to bed.
Nothing very insightful from me, other than to confirm that, from my experience, at least the top UEFA guys never view this game as anything more than a glorified "exhibition" match. My reference to it being even less attractive "this time around" is simply a timing thing - coming as it does in the middle of the European season, and in particular how it affects the EPL, where a large number of players likely to play in that game "earn their corn". The EPL has a full slate of games the following weekend, and every club then plays 3 games inside 10 days. Given that, can you see Harry Kane, Virgil Van Dyck, Bruno Fernandes etc playing much of a part, if any, in a 3/4 place game, a week before they then kick off 3 games in 9 days in the EPL? I suspect Messrs Klopp, Conte, Guardiola etc might have something to say about it if their guys played much of a part in that game, and I would therefore expect to see a rather large number of "minor injuries" that rule a good number of players out, and make the game a rather timid affair for those that do play. Not really a Referee issue, as such, but certainly a consideration when discussing the value of the appointment.
And the French league has matches December 28-29 and then January 1-2; the Portuguese league, December 28-30, the Spanish league, December 29-31.
This is one thing that's bothered me, the more I learn about the politics of these assignments. It would take a lot going his way for this to happen, but he has the potential to miss out on a World Cup semifinal or Final because Portugal has a bone to pick with him about a call he made in a previous match, against Serbia. In my view, it's awful that FIFA respects these restrictions. Why? Because it creates a messed-up incentive structure for the referees. Take Portugal vs Serbia, for instance. One of those nations is far more likely to make it to big games at the EUROs or World Cup than the other. So if we assume that screwing up an in-out goal line decision will put the referee team on the aggrieved country's persona non grata list, and if we assume that assignors actually care about such things, there's a systemic incentive to risk that country being a smaller team like Serbia than a bigger team like Portugal. This is just one example, but there's plenty of other situations in which this plays out. A big team vs a tiny team in the Champions League, or even a big team vs small team matchup in the World Cup group stage (think how Elfath, we assume, is out for future Portugal matches). Even at the national level or below, the same incentive structure exists. I think this is a completely messed-up way to run the assignments, because it incentivizes referees to avoid screw-ups that harm big teams more than it incentivizes them to avoid screw-ups that harm small teams. Maybe all the referees at the World Cup are the pinnacle of human altruism and morality and are able to tune out those personal incentives. Nevertheless, the assignors shouldn't dangle these incentives in front of them. The system shouldn't be systemically biased in this way. We talk so much about the politics of assigning because this is the reality of it, but I don't think it gets mentioned enough how messed up this stuff is.
The whole system actively rewards essentially psychopathic behaviour in many, many areas (ofc this isn’t linked to refereeing in particular, it applies many/all bureaucracies generally, but the best comparison for refereeing is Soviet Communist Party - there is only one bureaucracy to climb and if you fall out of it then you are fully out, there is no transfer possible, it raises the stakes A LOT). It’s why the discussions about “I bet it’s weird to not support your national team at the WC” and “isn’t the Elfath SYC a human moment” are so funny to me. No! Referees are simply lying if they say the former, and I guarantee you that Elfath was 100% thinking “I bet this will play well for me and my WC” and zero percent about Aboubakar’s feelings or whatever. Zerooo. And that’s not anti-Elfath - it is the cold, hard reality of elite refereeing. Guys like Mateu who actually find solace in interacting with players are very, very rare. It is a simple fact of refereeing life and the earlier you cotton on to it, the better. And I don’t say that as someone who is bitter having lost out to it; quite the opposite, in fact. (OT: read the excellent Dominic Cummings ‘The Hollow Men of Westminster’ blog post if you can, a fantastic insight on this ).
I fully agree Mikael, even at the lowest levels of the game all the way to the top, the systemic natural selection favors not necessarily the fairest referees, but the ones who are best at avoiding big controversies. And of course, that structure is a reason for concern that the referees who make it to the top are not, in fact, naturally selected to be the the best at tuning out the systemically biased incentives that are presented to them.
I have to laugh. I bust my hump each week to try and find referees to cover games and many are solo. These yahoos now have a crew of 11. At least 4 of which are doing who the hell knows what.
FWIW - and I don't have the track record of others - I'm going with Tello on England-France and Claus on Portugal-Morocco. You have to bet these are the last games you can give to Brazil or Argentinian referees, Marciniak is easily used (if they want) in any Semi now that we're out of confederation neutrality (as is Orsato, and Makkelie, though I think he's done), and two UEFA referees on Day 1 and two CONMEBOL referees on Day 2 is cute enough to get the nod. I think Claus gets the game over Sampaio because Sampaio has worked three times already without separating himself from the pack, and Morocco would likely be fine seeing Claus again, but I don't feel strongly.
Yeah, I think this is perfectly reasonable. Leaving Orsato, Marciniak and Elfath as the top candidates for the final three matches. But I’m just not quite sure Tello needs to happen here. Has his performance warranted it and is he the right fit for that game? Just not sure. And the Brazilian race does seem a tossup. I’ve only shifted to Sampaio because he seems like the favorite but pre-tournament I’d have said Claus. A part of me does like your predictions more than mine! But barring a big surprise I do think these are the four candidates for today.
I think Tello’s ‘in-the-background’ style actually is quite a good fit for ENGFRA, to be fair. FIFA have shown astuteness is pairing styles rather than location with matches (two ‘Euro-type’ clashes with Valenzuela). Claus was reserve for Morocco’s R16, and refereed their final group game. So Sampaio would make more sense than Claus three times in a row, IMO. But, if it is Tello/Brazilian, they are left with only one final candidate from the QFs; IMO it would be smarter to have two. We all know how fiery Portugal can be; it is a quasi home game for Morocco. It wouldn’t be a mistake to judge this is a high risk game. So, I’m going out on a limb with Marciniak for this one. It just leaves the semifinals as a bit messy, unless Marciniak repeats and Orsato goes to bottom bracket, or Elfath/Valenzuela/ARG-BRA options are considered ‘in play’.
I'd imagine the tensions between Oliver and Taylor are relatively thick today unless Taylor's going to get the final (and unless France AND Argentina aren't in it, I have a hard time thinking he would.) The margins are very, very fine at this level, and I wonder if the deciding factor was the management of added time and subsequent send off of Bento in the second South Korea game. If it is, I think that's a real shame. It wasn't that egregious of an issue, and Bento was completely out of line for his conduct and deserved to be sent off (Daniel Siebert, take note).
I obviously don't know their personal relationship, but they're professionals and they almost certainly knew it would come to this. It is noteworthy, though, that after Taylor getting the bigger games in UEFA on a pretty regular basis, Oliver has now beat him out at two tournaments in a row--unless, of course, England lose and Taylor is some shock name for the Final (which, to be clear, I don't think is in the cards). I think Oliver was just better overall and Collina likes Oliver to begin with. If Bento is what "sunk" Taylor, well, as you said, the margins are fine. If Oliver didn't have a misstep at all, it's not really fair to him to flip a coin.
I love that an "in-the-background" referee could have an 11-red card game in his final match before the tournament! Ah, Argentina! Whatever you say about the specific performances in this tournament of Tello and Rapallini, it remains a constant that Argentina produces some of the best referees in the world.
I was just about to write "what if you flip them" and then here it comes - Morocco-Portugal: Tello England-France: Sampaio [#Qatar2022 ]🇲🇦 Marruecos vs Portugal 🇵🇹: Facundo Tello 🇦🇷🏴 Inglaterra vs Francia 🇫🇷: Wilton Sampaio 🇧🇷— ArbitroInternacional (@ArbitroInteBlog) December 8, 2022 (Updates: Barton as Tello's 4th, which is a nice consolation; Mohammed as Sampaio's 4th.)
I doubt FIFA are upset with the Bento send off; that red card all but shows itself (and yes, take note Mr. Siebert) and since it’s a coach and after full time, none of the “keep 22 on the field” dynamics probably apply here. That said, other commenters who tabulated stoppages that happened in added time in URU-KOR noted that he short-changed the Koreans even with the additional minute, and it’s no secret that he blew full time at 93:56 in CRO-BEL after adding 4 minutes, despite the occurrence of a slow Croatian substitution (and perhaps other stoppages, I don’t remember. Check the thread). That CRO-BEL thing is pretty egregious: for a tournament that has, publicly and privately, instructed such a stringent tabulation of added time, the decision to add on no time for a lengthy time-wasting substitution by the “winning” team in a de-facto knockout game seems like a pretty significant insubordination on Taylor’s part. And all that aside, Oliver was just better in his games. Taylor was fine, but Oliver performed really well (as long as you assume that FIFA is ok with him not showing a second yellow or straight red to the player who shoved him in the back, which I think is, sadly, a fair assumption).
I think Sampaio has skated by this tournament and if you go back, I've been critical of him before this event. While I'm not shocked to see his name (as I did predict it for the other match), that's a pretty high-profile game where none of the players really know him. If it stays a tense or nervy affair, he'll continue to skate by. But if that game opens up with some hefty challenges, I don't think he's the right man for the job. It's a gamble. Tello on the other seems fair enough. Will be intrigued to see him in that one.
So Marciniak, Elfath and Orsato seem like your favorites for the final three matches, but it seems like Elfath can't work if Morocco advances. Other names sticking around without a match at all so far: Al-Jassim: 3/4 playoff? Ramos: fourth for Elfath if he gets a game? Rapallini: surely done, I'd say Claus: same as Rapallini Valenzuela: possible surprise name for a match if Elfath can't slot in Taylor: seems done Frappart: 3/4 playoff or fourth for Turpin--or maybe just done Turpin: France has to lose and then he becomes a candidate Makkelie - the Dutch have to lose and, even then... I just don't see it I think matchups are going to determine everything at this point. If you end up with the favorites going through, I think it will be: Argentina-Brazil - ELFATH France-Portugal - ORSATO Final - MARCINIAK OR... Argentina-Brazil - ORSATO France-Portugal - MARCINIAK Final - TURPIN/ELFATH, depending upon who wins
I’m sad for Claus. Sampaio had good moments (especially in POL-KSA, save for the missed second yellow which apparently this committee doesn’t seem to care about for some reason!), but I liked Claus’s style a lot better and I figured they’d at least “split the bill” in the knockout games the way Tello and Rapallini have. Why Sampaio 2 and Claus 0? I am left to conclude that they weren’t too happy with Claus’s first game for some reason, given the low quality of his second appointment. Was it too much added time? Was it one or both of the holding incidents? Or something else completely? No idea. On Tello, today’s news feels like some political horse trading needed to break neutrality on both of the earlier games. Tello was fine in both his games, but he was never truly tested as they were both among the easiest games at this tournament. For that reason, under normal circumstances I wouldn’t have expected a quarterfinal appointment. I wish his second appointment had been better so we could see more of what he has to offer. Nevertheless, now is his chance to show us, so good luck to him!
So Orsato and Marciniak on the semis? They have to work and I doubt FIFA has been saving one for the Final without a KO match. Orsato not getting a match yet throws everything in a mess. The Brazilian and Argentine quotas have been met. Both countries have gotten two knockout games a piece. Loser of France vs. England gets the Final? I guess Lahoz is in play too. I can't believe I'm writing this, but it looks like it might be Elfath's Final if they are not going a UEFA route. If Brazil loses to Croatia then Sampaio for the Final then?
My understanding is that FIFA wanted the first holding sent down and did not want the second hold sent down if the first one was not. In other words, the first one was a penalty and the second one was borderline but a bad judgment given the first non-intervention. This is why Gonzalez never worked again as a VAR. How much of that can be blamed on Claus? No idea. But as we talked about with Taylor/Oliver, the margins are fine. And maybe Seneme just likes Sampaio more--that's an area where I'm completely in the dark.
Marciniak had Argentina-Australia. A very quiet KO match. After a very quiet group stage match. This might be similar to the Kuipers EURO 2020 grand plan. Marciniak might be the favorite here. Or at least, as you suggested earlier, the Eriksson who has a real shot. I think it just gives him a semi. Just a question of which one. Seems a pretty obvious plan. Ah, right! That's the name I should have considered above. I don't think Oliver/Taylor is seriously in play. But Turpin and Mateu Lahoz would be. Can't ignore that possibility. Oh I think it definitely is if they don't go the UEFA route. But Morocco causes problems and so does Portugal, to at least some extent. So is he saved for the final as one of two options or does he get the semifinal on the non-Morocco/Portugal side of the bracket to ensure he gets used? And if it's Argentina/Brazil, is he more or less likely to get that? I think the biggest questions right now are how you handle Elfath because it's clear FIFA wants to use him again. No, as you said they met their quota. Collina, I would imagine, is letting Seneme get what he can here so that this no longer has to happen.
Argentina and Brazil have each had 6 matches assigned to their referees (Rapallini 3, Tello 3, Sampaio 4, Claus 2). Are these new records for a single nation? In previous editions, we had 5 matches for Argentina 2018 (Pitana 5) Uzbekistan 2010 (Irmatov 5) Mexico 2010 (Archundia 3, Rodriguez 2)