Ukraine v Russia II

I actually think Balkanization should be on the table

 

I think it is a credible way to guarantee Russia never gets within 100 miles of the Polish border ever again. I also think it's a plausible way for genocides to break out when subjugated former peoples of Central Asia decide they don't like their ethnically-dissimilar neighbors. How we navigate that will be really important.

A large part of me wishes Putin would board his helicopter to Dubai shouting "next time, Avengers!" and flies off. So much of this war is his personal narcissism, we could easily work with the rest of the Russian elite.

 

They’re all complicit

I hate how messy this world is sometimes

 

Russia's history has gone downhill since the Novgorod Republic fell to Muscovy. Maybe this can be the start on a way up.

 

That's a great alternate history, where Novgorod becomes the dominant Russian power.

I recommend the video game Europa Universalis IV, if alternate history is your thing.

 

Yup!

 

I feel that some territories will break off if Putin is toppled no matter what, i.e. Chechnya. Splitting up the whole of Russia into smaller nations is a not great idea.

Setting it up like Japan post WW2 sounds good. Take ALL the nukes.

 

I would like to know how you think the world is going to get Russia to agree to a military occupation that gives the occupiers 100% control of all governmental affairs in order for a Japan style reformation to be enacted.

 

Ask nicely?

 

I said it sounds good.

 

Geez...Becker has aged a bit since last I saw him.

 

Director GRIMES has directed me to ask inform you of your appointment as Chargé d'affaires. He really needs you as you are the only one here who appears to not have a mean streak. We're all hoping that is only a temporary flaw.

HAIL GRIMES!!!

 

His kid ran a baaah in Baaaaston.My friend Cliff use ta drink theah.

 

I have just seen photos of five Ukrainian people being hanged by the Russians in the Russia-occupied Luhansk region (2 cases: 2 people and 3 people hanged, respectively). Will not share them here out of respect for the killed ones. In both cases, the Russians put the plates...1/x

— Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M (@sumlenny) December 4, 2022

Warning: the actual pictures are further down in the thread.

Another argument against the tankie rhetoric of "Ukraine should just surrender to end this war".
Not that we needed any more than we already had.

 

Special request from Pootin:

 

Off the top of my head, Chechnya, Dagestan, and Ingushetia are the only ones that pose a severe threat to the territorial integrity of Russia because, being Caucasian republics, they're the only ones that could sustain a war against the Russian state (weakened as it is).

The bigger threats to Russia are its international obligations. Azerbaijan is not going to stop until Armenia no longer exists. Russians in Moldavia, Georgia, and Kaliningrad are going to face some really hard times for the next decade as they get expelled. The Syrian opposition are almost certainly licking their chops. Instability caused by Russia throwing away its credibility is going to require either US intervention, or chaos, war, and genocide.

 

Peice cap on Russian Oil now in effect. It will be interesting to see what will be the consequences. Many believes that it won't be affective with workarounds already in place and EU nations will be the biggest losers

The G7 price cap on Russian seaborne oil came into force as the West tries to limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine, though Russia has said it will not abide by the measure even if it has to cut production https://t.co/8EaiCh8eKi pic.twitter.com/lZ7W4HlCyj

— Reuters (@Reuters) December 5, 2022

 

I bet you your password that "many believes" are wrong.

 

Who's Manny?Manny Ramirez?Manny Machado?

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...upplies-subject-western-price-cap-2022-12-04/
Russia can access enough tankers to ship most of its oil beyond the reach of a new G7 price cap, industry players and a U.S. official told Reuters in October, underscoring the limits of the most ambitious plan yet to curb Moscow's wartime revenue.

India won't abide by it
https://apnews.com/article/europe-b...n=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

https://www.npr.org/2022/12/02/1139...rm=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr
Analysts say the price cap, spearheaded by the U.S. Treasury Department, could be difficult to enforce.

Going around the sanctions

Russia has quietly amassed a fleet of more than 100 ageing tankers to help circumvent western restrictions on Russian oil sales. Russia won’t deal with countries enforcing oil cap & aims to use its fleet to supply countries such as India, China & Turkey.https://t.co/c1bqfGlCM6

— Velina Tchakarova (@vtchakarova) December 3, 2022

China has resume their purchase, also already said they aren't following the plan

Oil refiners in China have started to buy Russian crude cargoes again after a short hiatus https://t.co/jG4KbbIMEM

— Bloomberg (@business) December 2, 2022

OPEC will keep the output targets it already set. They are also opposed to this plan

OPEC+ said it will stick to its oil-output targets amid mounting concerns over Covid lockdowns in China and uncertainty over Russia’s ability to export crude https://t.co/a4yJaMrf1L

— Real Time Economics (@WSJecon) December 5, 2022

Plenty of skepticism about this plan to go around.

 

So.. You're saying that a sanction that only involves 8 countries plus the EU and a few other countries won't be completely effective? Shocking.

That being said, shipping is significantly more expensive than using pipelines, so even if Russia is able to replace the loss of EU delivers (it won't be able to), it will be more expensive to do so. Also, just because countries like India and China won't be complying with the price cap, it doesn't mean they'll be paying market value. Russia is already struggling to deliver all of the oil it produces and, reportedly, has filled most/all of their storage, and, as a result, is starting to shutdown extraction across the country. This means that the countries that won't comply will be looking to get a significant price reduction in the price of the oil they do take.

 

In the context of this war, it won't stop it or slow it down, which was the objective. It's most likely going to hurt Europe even more going forward