Hard Ceiling for MLS

Discussion in 'MLS: General' started by Rick Sanchez, Feb 16, 2022.

  1. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The thing is there is no need to worry about such a ceiling because MLS isn’t even close to reaching it,

    The current goal for the league should be to be the clearcut best league in the Americas, which isn’t a place where it is currently at.

    One of the other things that is going to help raise that ceiling would be developing and raising the level of the rank and file American player in the league.

    The top players are always going to want to play at the highest level and MLS won’t be able to match that for the foreseeable future. But it also doesn’t have to anytime soon as it isn’t close to maximizing its potential. The other great equalizer would be if it could get the TV ratings going and get a TV deal along the lines of other major US sports.
     
  2. canammj

    canammj Member+

    Aug 25, 2004
    CHINO, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    ======================
    EPL is 20 teams
    We will be at 32 teams in the future
    NFL is 32 as well
    SO does NFL money for MLS guarantee MLS would automatically challenge the EPL as the top league in the world? That would be fun to find out.
    I think at some point, the money is going to run out and the NFL will have a harder time getting the money they are now. Sure, the USA is a big relatively well off country and we can support 5 major sports, but there is not unlimited TV and corporate money in every city.
    Frankly, if MLS average attendance keeps slowly rising and good stadiums and markets, if MLS were to pass NBA and NHL just on average attendance and also beating out some MLB teams as well, that is only one measure.
    I am afraid with out the TV money which is typically only paid if there are a lot of eyeballs watching will be a very, very long time coming for MLS.
    I think the MLS is smart to try the Apple streaming thing- thats the future, just wish we could get consistent over the air coverage even if the money is not quite there.
     
  3. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    An MLS where its top 4 teams would be contenders for CL spots in England or Spain would require something completely unforeseeable in this moment. However, an MLS where the median team would be mid table in Spain or France or Italy, the 3 leagues with the least parity, that’s a stretch but feasible. Even split in 2, New York and LA have many more potential fans than any city in Europe, because those big cities are already split at least 2 ways and smaller.* Houston, Chicago, Dallas, and Philly all have more people in their catchment area than almost every club in Europe. Nobody thinks of Denver as a big city in this context, but Wikipedia says its metro population is 3 million. Wikipedia pegs Liverpool’s metro at 2.2 million. Wikipedia says Marseilles is France’s second largest city, and its metro population is a bit more than half of Denver, at 1.8 million.

    Here’s my point…people who don’t live in the US rarely really, truly understand how many cities we have that are population afterthoughts in the US, but would be leading cities in any European nation. And so they don’t understand the potential revenue for MLS teams.

    Of course, as they saying goes, potential is Latin for “ain’t done shot yet.”

    *I think. Paris has at least one other club, but I don’t know if it has any chance to be a Ligue 1 staple.
     
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  4. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Sacramento Republic FC
    United States
    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #54 Elninho, Aug 17, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2022
    There is no hard ceiling. But I think MLS improvement will eventually run up against a tough barrier to overcome, which happens when MLS reaches the point of spending like upper-half clubs in the big four leagues. I think we can get to where every MLS club looks like a mid-table club in those leagues. But at that point, even though MLS would be able to compete financially, it can't offer an equivalent to European continental competition. At that point, MLS would have to pay a premium to get players to forgo the Champions League, and incremental improvement slows to a crawl. I suspect that premium only disappears at the point where the MLS playoffs approach the quality of competition in the Champions League knockout stage. It would take a massive amount of concerted spending, distributed league-wide, to get over that hump.
     
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  5. STR1

    STR1 Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    May 29, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    MLS can spend all it wants it won't change much with all the roster building restrictions it has. Most of the money is designed to go to 3 players on the team. That really doesn't help bring overall quality for the league. Sure, money is being spent just not distributed correctly. All other spots on the roster have a cap.

    If MLS could relax its roster building rules and not necessarily increase even more spending, it could easily compete with leagues like Eredivise, Portugal, Belgium or France, minus of course the big teams from those leagues.
     
  6. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I’d argue it already competes with all of Belgium and all but the top 2-3 teams in Portugal.
     
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  7. STR1

    STR1 Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    May 29, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    How would a TV deal along the lines of other more popular sports help MLS? They won't increase spending because they have already agreed on the CBA on how much would be spent, salary budget wise, for the next couple of years. They could of had a $1B per year contract with Apple and spending would be the same as if they would of gotten a $200M per year contract with Apple.
     
  8. STR1

    STR1 Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    May 29, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    I could agree with you too but we really can't find out. Definitely the top teams in Portugal, Belgium and Netherlands are better then all of MLS. Just don't know how a DC United would fair against the lower teams in those leagues.
     
  9. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There’s actually a provision in the CBA which increases the spending if the TV money goes up. There will be a bit of an increase because of the Apple deal, but something more in line with more popular sports would have seemed a much larger increase.

    The owners also can and have increased spending outside of the CBA process via mechanisms like TAM and GAM, which increased TV money would likely lead to more of.

    And then you’d also see more money spent in future CBAs as well.
     
  10. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well a good but not All-Star LB went from the Rapids to the current top team in Belgium and is starting every game. That’s at least an indicator that MLS could hold its own like for like (top teams against top teams, bottom teams against bottom teams).
     
  11. STR1

    STR1 Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    May 29, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    True but same is said when they try to discredit MLS. They use a player that couldn't make it in one league and then comes to MLS and shines. There are many variables on why a player works in one place and why he doesn't in another.
     
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  12. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In this case though he’s working/worked in both places
     
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  13. STR1

    STR1 Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    May 29, 2010
    Club:
    Real Madrid



    He ain't lying.
     
  14. Fighting Illini

    Fighting Illini Member+

    Feb 6, 2014
    Chicago
    The unchallengeable superiority of the Big Five leagues and the Champions League is a recent financial reality, it's not an iron law of thermodynamics.

    The story of the MLS' rise to global prominence would by definition also have to be the story of the decline of the top end of the European game, that's an instructive thing to keep in mind.

    I don't think that's a terribly difficult thing to imagine, tbh. They're doing pretty well making themselves a smaller, worse, less special product all the time these days.
     
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  15. JoePanther2001

    JoePanther2001 New Member

    Portland Timbers
    United States
    Apr 7, 2018
    Considering Ronaldo is likely signing an utterly ridiculous contract in Saudi Arabia kinda proves that European players don't care about the CL as fans think they do. It's all about $$$$. If MLS teams start to outspend Euro Clubs for players, then you'll see them come here. That's obviously not happening anytime soon, but $$$ talks.

    As for the Saudi Arabian club, I guarantee they're going in the red. $207m a year is completely insane. Zero way they generate half of that revenue, and the owner is spending big bucks out of pocket for this, and I doubt that it's going to work. Worst part is, I bet that Saudi Arabian club could've offered half that and no club would've matched it. That's terrible business if I've ever seen it.
     
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  16. KCbus

    KCbus Moderator
    Staff Member

    United States
    Nov 26, 2000
    Reynoldsburg, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think this is a somewhat unfair generalization.

    To say players don't care about the Champions League is a little harsh. And using Ronaldo as an example is lame. This guy's won the Champions League five times. To expect him to care about winning it for a sixth time as much as the others is a little silly. He's also 37, and only has a few years left to make big money. If someone is willing to basically bankrupt themself to get him, I don't blame him for doing it.
     
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  17. shizzle787

    shizzle787 Member

    Apr 27, 2015
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Juventus FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If you had tried to rank MLS against the rest of the world's league 10 years ago, the league might have just cracked the top-20. Today, it is knocking on the door of the top-10.

    Here is my top-12 leagues:
    1. Premier League
    2. La Liga
    3. Bundesliga
    4. Serie A
    5. Ligue 1
    6. Eredivise
    7. Brazilian Serie A
    8. Argentinian Primera Division
    9. Portuguese Liga Nos
    10. Liga MX
    11. MLS
    12. Belgian Pro League
     
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  18. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Meh. AGING Euros may not care about UCL, put young players absolutely do. Not only do the young players care about UCL, but so do their national teams. Rightly, or wrongly, Euro national teams see MLS as a backwater (slowly improving, but still backwater) so any player that comes to US over the top 4/5 leagues will need to not only be good, but exceptional to make their national team's radar..

    Yeah. Gotta overspend and, tbh, Saudi teams don't care about money.
     
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  19. Fighting Illini

    Fighting Illini Member+

    Feb 6, 2014
    Chicago
    #69 Fighting Illini, Dec 5, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
    Access to national teams is a good and underrated point.

    It's fair to say I think that "compete at the absolute highest level" and "make the most money possible" are two important goals players have which mostly don't conflict with each other, but where they sometimes do players might differ in their responses.

    Also, "play in the Champions League" and "meaningfully compete in the Champions League" are different things, and the latter is becoming the province of an ever-smaller number of clubs.

    The idea that playing for Celtic or Feyenoord or Galatasaray or something means you're at a "Champions League club" is pretty notional at best at this point, and that line keeps creeping upward. That isn't going to be the factor that keeps those players from bigger money offers elsewhere.

    There's other stuff that keeps the centripetal forces of "European Football" going, but it's all weakening over time.

    If MLS keeps getting better, MLS will keep getting better.

    For better or for worse, Cristiano to Al-Nassr is a project of the Saudi state, and should be understood as such.
     
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  20. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You aren't wrong, but they also need to take into account their future earnings as well. Coming into MLS to get a bigger paycheck likely means that once the MLS contract ends, their offers from Euro teams will be less than it would have been if they stayed in Euro and made UCL appearances.

    Depends how low in quality the team is. Even making appearances in UCL can be huge for players as bigger clubs absolutely scout the clubs that play in UCL. So if that player does well in UCL, that absolutely drives up their price on the global market.



    Absolutely correct.There's a reason why the big money contracts in Saudi Arabia dry up when the oil price drop and why they go up during price increases.
     
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  21. Fighting Illini

    Fighting Illini Member+

    Feb 6, 2014
    Chicago
    This stuff is all real, I don't want to denigrate the frictions and transaction costs you're pointing out which would muddy up the transition of MLS becoming a higher quality and higher profile league than, like, the Eredivisie.

    But situations as diverse as Miguel Almiron, Gaga Slonina, Thiago Almada, Zlatan, etc, show that these are bumps, not walls. The elite need talent, and if parochial concerns get in the way of them accessing it they will lose to their competitors.

    If MLS can keep taking steps forward, and other leagues frankly keep taking steps backward, all of this stuff will fall away over time.
     
  22. Elninho

    Elninho Member+

    Sacramento Republic FC
    United States
    Oct 30, 2000
    Sacramento, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #72 Elninho, Dec 5, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2022
    Apparently the majority of that money is sponsor deals, not being paid by the club. It's akin to the sensationalist reports that Beckham's MLS contract was worth $250 million, when that was actually his total estimated income during his time in the US including commercial sponsorships.

    BTW, it was reported in August 2021 that Al-Nassr had $108 million in revenue and $138 million in expenses for the previous fiscal year, and that the board was announcing a plan to reduce expenses by 30 percent. Of course, this was long before Ronaldo suddenly became available, and Prince Khalid has pumped money into the club before.

    But the point that I made above was that anyone without access to the Champions League has to pay a premium to induce players to forgo the Champions League. That's exactly what Al-Nassr is doing, even if most of that money isn't salary. The need to overspend to get top players probably does not go away until the quality of competition in the MLS playoffs and/or CONCACAF Champions League approaches that of the UEFA Champions League.
     
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  23. Fighting Illini

    Fighting Illini Member+

    Feb 6, 2014
    Chicago
    Absolutely true, though there's a spectrum between needing to overpay by 10x in order to get Ronaldo to Saudi Arabia versus needing to pay, say, 2x as a premium to get players to MLS. I don't know if 2x is a correct figure, but it isn't 10, and more to the point that premium is a dynamic measurement of the relative standing of the competition.

    Over the big big picture, long long term an ascent of MLS up the power structure will be easily visible in these sorts of terms.
     
  24. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's worth noting that the Saudis didn't actually spend $211m for Ronaldo. The number is reportedly similar to how Beckham's deal was announced. A VAST majority of the $211m is actually from guaranteed sponsorships.
     
  25. Fighting Illini

    Fighting Illini Member+

    Feb 6, 2014
    Chicago
    Sure, though unlike the Beckham money, in Saudi Arabia that's all ultimately being drawn from state funds. Pulled from the same well, so to speak.
     
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