Why hasn't New Zealand joined AFC yet?

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by PJ234, Nov 28, 2022.

  1. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    Next year the Women's World Cup is going be hosted in Australia and New Zealand. This is the first time I believe that a FIFA tournament would be hosted between two nations in different confederations since Australia plays in AFC and New Zealand plays in OFC. That just got me thinking why not have New Zealand just try to join AFC. I know the new WC format would give OFC an chance to qualify but in the end its all about experience and the the type of teams you'll play. NZ would definitely get smashed without playing some good teams. Moving to AFC would provide that much needed boost as they would play against some really good teams.

    Not only that but I think interest in football but be boosted due to the fact that NZ are playing against teams like Japan, South Korea, China, Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and their neighbors Australia. Domestic football could take off as the A-League could probably expand more into the nation.

    Another point I wanna bring out is women's football. NZ has never made it past the Group Stage in a women's world cup and they find it difficult to perform in other competitions due to them playing in a weak league. NZ women's team would get to play against much better teams which can result in better performances in tournaments.

    The only issue is that if NZ join AFC. What happens to the leftovers of OFC? It's hard but I see them probably staying together and trying to figure things out as they lose a member. There's no way NZ is gonna develop football if they stay behind in OFC.

    What do you guys think? Just something that was on my mind for the few days.
     
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  2. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Yes I think they should join AFC.

    I said long ago that the rest of the Oceania teams should then just become a sub region of AFC with its own confed competition, and then the champ or qualifier to then move to the main AFC qualifying tournament.
     
  3. svelten

    svelten Member

    N/A
    Jun 22, 2009
    Club:
    Vancouver Whitecaps
    This has been a suggestion for a while and I'm not sure what the holdup is. AFC can get their slot allocation at the WC. NZ would be a fine second tier competitive side in the region and lord knows both them and other AFC teams could use more decent competition.
     
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  4. mfw13

    mfw13 Member+

    Jul 19, 2003
    Seattle
    Club:
    Newcastle United FC
    Some of it may have to do with the fact that the Middle Eastern members of the AFC do not want to have to fly all the way to New Zealand.....not sure what the exact numerical division of members is between the Middle East and East Asia, but I'm guessing that the Middle Eastern members have enough votes to veto New Zealand if they want to.

    I've always thought that it would be a good idea to split Asia up into two smaller confederations....China/India/Mongolia would be the westernmost members of the Asian confederation (which would add Oceania's ten members), and Pakistan/Afghanistan/Tajikstan/Kyrgyzstan/Kazakhstan would be the easternmost members of the Middle East federation.
     
  5. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    If AFC were to add New Zealand they would be at 48 teams. You could divide the region easily then.
     
  6. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    East: New Zealand, Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Vietnam, Bhutan, China, Chinese Taipei, North Korea, South Korea, Guam, Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Mongolia, Northern Marina Islands, Indonesia

    West: Afghanistan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, UAE, Yemen
     
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  7. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    Bhutan would probably go in the West zone since they are in the SAFF (South Asian Football Federation). That would leave 25 in the West zone and 23 in the East.
     
  8. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    True. I mean Northern Marina Islands are not part of FIFA so you could just switch them up then. Northern Marina Islands are an associate member
     
  9. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #9 Paul Calixte, Nov 29, 2022
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2022
    The whole point of Australia's move in the 00's was that they were seeking direct WC access, which the OFC had been consistently denied, most recently (at the time) with FIFA reneging on a promise to revisit the question with the distribution of berths for Germany '06.

    And, most importantly, they left the OFC with the OFC's consent, under an agreement to continue financially supporting the latter.

    In the here and now, neither condition currently exists: OFC's getting their direct WC berth for '26 onward, and there's no way the OFC would sign off on New Zealand exiting without having to contemplate its own dissolution.

    As many here have rightly intuited, the more practical question is when would an OFC/AFC merger + potential AFC split be on the table. From there, the main holdup is what's in it for the OFC bigwigs to convince them to go from having power and budgets to themselves, to jostling with several, more powerful and established fellow bureaucrats in another confederation for benefits.
     
  10. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    Yeah that's true. I do think AFC and OFC will merge eventually. It's just about when it happens you know. I feel like if and when Concacaf/Conmbeol merge then AFC will follow suit and do the same thing with OFC.
     
  11. r0adrunner

    r0adrunner Member+

    Jun 4, 2011
    London, UK
    Club:
    AS Roma
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    I was going to say, this point is almost equally applicable to Conmebol: a ten-member confederation is unsustainable nowadays.
     
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  12. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But that's an even more extreme case: Conmebol execs know how FIFA politics works, and they know that in a Pan-American confederation, they'd lose a significant amount of power just based on sheer numbers.
     
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  13. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    I mean from the looks of it UEFA and Conmbeol are having issues with FIFA lately. Having a Pan American association that can partner up with UEFA could be enough to challenge fifa on certain things.
     
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  14. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    After this World Cup NZ should definitely try to get into AFC now lol
     
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  15. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    Staying in OFC would be pretty shortsighted for NZ football tbh. It is true that in AFC NZ wouldn't have a de facto guaranteed spot, but with the expansion NZ would probably still make every other edition or so from the AFC. They would also be able to participate in the Asian Cup and their clubs could play in AFC competitions.

    It's up to them now, if they want to take the easy route and get their token two WC games every 4 years, or actually develop their football organically over time by competing more regularly against serious opposition. They certainly may well take the first option, but it will do nothing for the growth of the game in NZ tbh.
     
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  16. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    Yep totally agree with this statement. Football won't grow in the nation unless they play against better teams.
     
  17. bigsoccertst1

    bigsoccertst1 Member+

    United States
    Sep 22, 2017
    OFC, and by extension NZL, is doing just fine. It secured a whole WWC slot back in 1991, and will receive a whole WC slot in 2026.

    As opposed to the men's sport, OFC has participated since the start of FIFA-organized women's world tournaments. This is how OFC women's NTs received a whole WC slot decades before its male counterparts did.

    I doubt that NZL is interested in playing women's AFC qualifiers: a confederation where 52% of Asian members participated in 2023 WWC qualifiers.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_AFC_Women's_Asian_Cup_qualification

    By joining AFC, NZL would dilute its number of competitive matches toward a WWC: NZL devotes its women's international friendlies calendar to seek competitive world rivals. We could even argue that NZL would have failed to host a WWC, if it had to compete for hosting rights from within AFC.

    For the time being NZL men's NT is stuck in OFC, due to women's football dynamics in the region.
     
  18. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    Ok but like I explained earlier NZ Women's team haven't made it out the group stage in the world cup and have a very bad record in the Olympics as well. Going to AFC and playing against China. Australia, Japan, and SK will give them more experience. Another thing I pointed out is the growth of football in the nation. Football will never grow in the nation if they are playing against the cook islands or Solomon Islands. That's just my view on things. Yes making the World Cup will be easier but will the sport and interest of the game grow if they stay in OFC?? Most likely not
     
  19. bigsoccertst1

    bigsoccertst1 Member+

    United States
    Sep 22, 2017
    @PJ234 that is why I mentioned NZL's women's international match calendar.

    If it moved into AFC, NZL women's NT would be stuck playing meaningless matches within AFC: remember that you have to play Asian Cup first, in order to qualify into AFC qualifiers. Its current situation allows them to play ANY top-ranked women's NT in preparation towards WWC.

    Too bad for the NZL men's NT, but we cannot expect NZL FA to shoot itself in the foot by undercutting its women's NT so it can bolster its men's NT.
     
  20. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    But the top teams from Asia still play those "meaningless' games and are still highly ranked and do well in the Women's World Cup and Olympics.
     
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  21. bigsoccertst1

    bigsoccertst1 Member+

    United States
    Sep 22, 2017
    You got it backwards: *highly ranked* AFC teams do not play Asian Cup qualifiers.

    While lower-ranked AFC teams played meaningless matches in Asian Cup preliminary rounds, NZL played friendlies against better-ranked teams in AFC and CONCACAF.

    NZL is not ready to throw its women's NT under the bus just because outsiders desire that OFC give up its men's WC slot.
     
  22. PJ234

    PJ234 Member

    DC united
    United States
    Oct 17, 2021
    Asian Teams qualify for the women's world cup via the Asian Cup. New Zealand would probably qualify via that. And even with those friendlies that they play. Are they even improving at tournaments?? No. If NZ played in the Asians women's cup. They would be better prepared for tournaments in the future
     
  23. thewitness

    thewitness Member

    Melbourne Victory, Derby County
    Australia
    Jul 10, 2013
    Club:
    Derby County FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    There was a bit of agitation for an AFC split after the 2023 Asian Cup was awarded to Qatar instead of South Korea after China withdrew it's hosting rights. If the 2027 Asian Cup goes to Saudi Arabia as expected there could be some big nations in East Asia considering their position in AFC, which could lead to an East-West split. Talk of Russia considering a move to AFC (due to UEFA sanctions) would also not sit well with some nations. Money talks and most of that money resides in West Asia.
    Personally, I think the ideal outcome would be UAFA becoming it's own confederation, including WAFF (CAF would probably not be happy), then the remaining Asian federations CAFA, SAFF, EAFF & AFF join with the OFC to form their own new Confederation.
     
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  24. bigsoccertst1

    bigsoccertst1 Member+

    United States
    Sep 22, 2017
    @thewitness , not too sure that RUS will allow itself to be humiliated by affiliating itself with AFC. It would be like letting itself be run out of Europe through the backdoor. I highly doubt that the Russian gov't would count that as a victory.

    West AFC will continue to tell everyone in AFC how things will be done. That is why its Champions League will continue using a West AFC bracket to protect its sub-par clubs.

    NZL won't be interested in losing its influence in OFC, by joining a confed run by West AFC.
     
  25. svelten

    svelten Member

    N/A
    Jun 22, 2009
    Club:
    Vancouver Whitecaps
    AFC can't afford to split. Both east and west asian teams need each other. And an Oceania castoff.

    The top four Asian sides (Japan Iran Korea Australia) are actually really quite good and has the ability to trouble any team besides an absolute behemoth like Brazil or France. Especially Japan who could've beaten anyone if they played their absolute best. They need the matches against each other.

    Besides Saudi Arabia who can surprise and be decent as well the rest of AFC are quite rubbish. I think these top four-five sides need more intercontinental competition, but failing that they need to get more games against each other.

    NZ could help the mid AFC tier improve as extra competition, it's a shame they'd rather be content shelling amateur sides like Solomon Islands and Tahiti.
     
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