I didn't notice AFC has fewer matches. We played 18 games in the qualification for this world cup, 20 games in the previous edition.
While there some tricky ties like Netherlands USA (because of the flu epidemic), Japan Croatia and Morocco Spain to say you don't think there a big chance for the teams that reached semis in the last World cups and Euros seems illogical You seem to put much stock into loses of already qualified teams. The CAF teams that won are still going home and the teams that lost to them still got 1st. Neither Cameroon or Tunisia win vs Brazil and France if this was the 1st game. Also the disrespect to teams like Croatia who reached the final in 2018. The amount of people who think Japan is the favourite....like seriously But this R16 will put some of this enthusiasm to bed
Even with 2 medals in 5 World cups played they talk like we are Costa Rica. We will see in 1/4 finals who is still in the game.
It’s like I predicted after the first couple of games .. the refs are letting too much go . The cynical players know they can whack a few even injure them ( Neymar now Jesus ) without even getting a warning !! Two of the world’s best forwards are now effectively out of the WC . Also Messi and Mitrovic , Foden , Kane plus tigers are all carrying ankle / foot injuries.
Jesus one of the world's best forwards? Not even close. Third tier IMO. But agree that refs have been too lenient. Yesterday's ref in Brasil vs Cameroon did a good game. But for example Uruguay didn't have a player sent off for a blatant stamp. Bah! Didn't even get a yellow.
I clearly have. Started with a bang, then petered out. Hasn't scored in 11 games. More of an attacking midfielder now, then a striker.
4pts in group phase is a mediocre benchmark for a WC team: team showed up at WC, and played Russian roulette to see if 4pts was enough. ECU has failed to enter R16 each time it earned 4 pts in group phase. If "Garbage like Poland just advanced with 4 points", then I wonder how you rate ECU. Historical facts indicate that 4pts in group phase is a poor WC advancement bar (nowhere near 50% chance), because more teams which scored 4pts were sent back home before R16. Since the first 32-team WC in 1998, 112 squads entered R16, 112 squads were eliminated in group phase. Group stage advancement/elimination by points earned: 112 Advanced to R16: +4pts: 91 teams 4pts: 20 teams (17.8% of advanced pool, as of 2022 WC) 3pts: 1 team -3pts: 0 teams 112 Eliminated in group phase: +4pts: 0 teams 4pts: 23 teams (20.5% of eliminated pool, as of 2022 WC) 3pts: 34 teams -3pts: 55 teams Perhaps you would agree that ECU will continue to crash before R16, after WC expansion to 48 teams: more C'BOL teams will qualify, who do not rely on high-altitude venues during qualifiers.
Yep....four points is a 50/50 shot....depends on how the other games in your group ended as well as goal difference. Five and you're in....three and you're out.
You can drop out in group phase with 5 or 6 pts, just hasn't happened in the World Cup. In 1982 Algeria dropped out despite winning 2 games (so 6 points as per 2022 rules).
You can go out with 5 points (three teams have a win and two draws each) or 6 points (three teams have a win each). The first situation happened in 1974 (eliminating Scotland), the second in 1982 (eliminating Algeria)*. * Of course a win was counted as two points back then, but as per 2022 rules it would have resulted in 5 and 6 pts respectively.
So true. Every WC that has a few surprising eliminations in group stage, people start overhyping teams... when will they learn. The semis will still be Europe and South America, as always.
QF and Round of 16 is a better measure of overall quality. No one is disputing the dominance of UEFA/CONMEBOL at the very top levels. But if we start seeing more ROW in the top 16/8 that is still a good improvement on previous years.
I have defended UEFA in the past, but even I've got to say some of the Eurosnob cope in here is getting on my nerves a bit.
What cope? Lol. Results that were supposedly gonna show that the dominance of the traditional regions' end was nigh have happened before, and they've always amounted to some random team making the QFs and no follow up in the next WC, but hey, if you want to get hyped up about nothing, go ahead. Revisiting this thread in a few days will be funny.
I don't disagree necessarily, you just came off snobbish with your line of questioning. It was just a theoretical question, I wasn't picking a side really. But 3 AFC teams in R16 never happened before. 2 CAF teams in R16 only happened once before. For both to happen in the same WC is a little bit more than what happened in previous WCs. This may just be another 2002, it may not be. I don't know.
Clearly CAF and AFC are improving based on the past 3 Worldcups 2nd round advances. Once the FIFA rankings become more realistic you will have more and more ROW teams getting the favorable positions in group draws that they deserve and will have even better advantages.
AFC clearly improved from where they were circa 2014. CAF has had two pretty decent World Cups (2014, 2022) and one fairly poor one (2018) in the last three editions.
Of course the QF will mostly be UEFA and CONMEBOL. No one is saying the top 10 isn't mostly or entirely those confederations. But I do think the top caf and afc sides are more on par with the 2nd tier UEFA sides than previously
I think the top CAF and AFC and Concacaf sides have been on par with the 2nd tier UEFA for more than a decade. I actually think the gap between first and second tier is closing, which may be more of a recent development.
I agree that it seems the best teams of AFC, CAF and Concacaf are about the equivalent of tier 2 UEFA teams, but I am interested to know why. The only reason which comes immediately to mind is that there is a greater number of players from these continents playing in Europe, particularly at clubs which play in UEFA club competitions. It is also interesting to note that the gap between tier 1 and 2 UEFA teams also seems to be narrowing, the presence of Italy and Portugal in the WC2022 UEFA playoffs and Hungary almost winning its NL group ahead of Italy, Germany and England also supports this view. Perhaps we can conclude that by the 2030 WC the gap between the best teams from all confederations - perhaps excluding Oceania - will be the narrowest it has ever been. What is potentially problematic though is that if tier 2 UEFA teams continue to improve, UEFA as a whole might maintain the gap with the other confederations' best teams.