2023 WWC Predictions

I'll go with a few upsets, but a final featuring the two teams most expected to be there. I think Spain could show up anywhere, which will depend on whether their top players and their federation make peace. I am picking Columbia as the team to exceed expectations. But this could just as well be Australia, as they will be playing all of their games on Australian soil, even during the knockout stages. I can't wait for it to start.

1) Norway v Costa Rica
3) USA v Argentina
2) Japan v New Zealand
4) Sweden v Netherlands

5) Australia v Denmark
7) France v Columbia
6) England v Nigeria
8) Germany v Brazil

A) Norway v USA
B) Japan v Sweden

C) Australia v Columbia
D) England v Germany

i) USA v Sweden
ii) Columbia v England

F) USA v England

Winner: USA

I can't help picking the USA as I am a fan.

 

Early prediction

A: Norway, Switzerland
B: Australia, Canada
C: Japan, Spain
D: England, Denmark
E: USA, Netherlands
F: Brazil, France
G: Sweden, Italy
H: Germany, Colombia

round of 16

Norway - Spain
USA - Italy

Japan - Switzerland
Sweden - Netherlands

Australia - Denmark
Brazil - Colombia

England - Canada
Germany - France

QF

Spain - USA
Japan - Sweden

Australia - Brazil
England - Germany

SF

Spain - Japan
Australia - Germany

F

Japan - Germany

 

I have a question for you guys.

As it is relevant to my team the Philippines, What do you think the chances of a team from Pot 4 in the WWC draw(since 2019 when rankings were used as a criteria for the draw instead of geographical/confederation zones) of advancing beyond the group stage and beyond?

I think only Nigeria and Cameroon from Pot 4 in 2019 reached the round of 16 but back then there were only 24 teams and a few third placed teams made it to the round of 16. It is a lot harder now with only 2 teams from each group advancing.

I think making predictions based on FIFA rankings alone is not an accurate predictor of how teams will do in the Final. FIFA rankings is based on a team's performance over a number of years. To me current form close to the Final is more important.

 

FIFA rankings have proven to be the most accurate WC predictor when taken as a whole, i.e. over all teams and all games (not looking at an single game or any single team's campaign), with the exception of CAF teams being generally under-ranked. No purely quantitative system is perfect, but the FIFA version of Elo for the women is about as good as you can get.

Form is certainly important, but form can only get you so far. It's a question I've talked about before - is a recent run of games "above ranking" actually a sign of an improved team, or just natural variability around the team's general ranking? More often than not, it's the latter, so the team is expected to revert to the mean soon enough. The question is just how soon that reversion occurs; the WC is long enough that it's almost better to come into form during the group stage and ride the high through the knockouts, rather than to be "in form" before the WC and come back down during the tournament.

And to be fair, while there is inertia in the FIFA rankings (and any Elo system), the teams that qualify for the WC usually play more games than usual in the lead-up to the WC, plus their good performances in the continental championships take advantage of the weightings within the ranking system, with the overall effect being that WC-bound teams have their rankings reflect their recent form much better than is typical for the rankings.

 

I understand. There are always going to be surprises though in every WC and regardless of rankings, the team that peaks at the right time I feel can ride it's momentum into a decent run in that short term event.

 

Slim to say the least.
A tournament with 24 teams still leaves the hope of advancing from 3rd place with only one win on the board.
With 32 teams, what is realistically needed is a win and a draw plus a favorable goal balance - and that too, may not be enough.

I really don't want to rain on your parade @Pelefan because of your passionate commitment and optimism toward your WNT, however in my opinion Philippines WNT will finish 4th in the group A,
with 0-2 points (I'd say chances: 80% for 0p)
and with GD between -5 to -10

I'd very much welcome to be wrong about it though.

 

Well we all tend to have bias about our favored teams. In this thread alone you have Japan making the finals against Germany which I don't think is the majority opinion on most polls. With the possibility of facing the USWNT in the quarterfinals I think Japan might not even make it past that stage.

I am just going by the performance of the Philippines in recent games against higher ranked teams like Ireland and New Zealand in recent friendlies. They might have lost those games by a goal but they were very competitive even while not fielding their full lineup with NZ only being able to make up for a 0-1 deficit in half time by being awarded a controversial PK early in the 2nd half.

I think if they continue to improve moving forward I believe they would have a chance of getting positive results on many of the teams in their group, two of which are not ranked among the top 20 teams in the FIFA rankings.

The PFF has announced that they have applied to join one of the pocket tournaments in Europe in February (presumably one of Cyprus Cup, the Turkish Women's Cup, the Algarve Cup, the Tournoi de France or the Pinatar Cup) so I think we will get a better handle by then on how they will do in the WC.

 

True, but you almost never get more than one surprise game per team. The only instance I can find from the past three tournaments of a team getting multiple "upset" results (i.e. ignoring by-the-numbers-upsets from games that are basically toss-ups anyway) in one tournament is Cameroon in 2015. Even Japan's "miracle" title in 2011 wasn't that miraculous by ranking, as they came into the tournament 4th. It's actually more common for teams to flail at the WC than overperform - there are two instances of that in the past three tournaments, Canada 2011 and Spain 2019.

Granted, there are usually 3-5 "upsets" per tournament, but they're scattered. If you want to make predictions, it's probably best to pick every game by ranking except for toss-up matches, then pick two or three more "surprises" without doubling up on any given team and just go with that.

 

And here's the thing about peaking at the WC - every single team is thinking the same thing. You can't just peak in general - you have to peak while other teams are holding steady or sliding. It's just not that likely to significantly overperform.

 

There is still 8 months to go before the WWC. The PFF said that the PWNT will probably play 10 more games before then. Hopefully they can raise their ranking so it would be closer to the other teams in Grp A by the time the tournament starts so it would be closer to a toss up rather than a major upset.

 

Spain 12 player's revolt have been a slow train crash. I couldn't help but to take notice. I couldn't even understand what was going on. Even after reading several Spanish news articles.

Spain A, on paper, should be a contender; thus this situation affects 2023 WWC and WoSo in general.

I found this BBC article, which at least to me, explained a lot.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/63318717

The real question is what is next for La Roja; and how this whole mess affect their NT or does Spain have enough quality to be a contender even without Barça players?

 

The article was written after Spain's October window but before the most recent November window. In both windows, Spain has been "depleted" due to this conflict, but they've drawn Sweden, beat USA and Japan, and absolutely walloped Argentina. Seems like their B team isn't much of a step down from the A team, if at all.

 

I predict that the average added time will be 10 minutes per half.

 

Well we just saw one in the men's World Cup with #51 ranked Saudi Arabia upsetting #3 ranked Argentina 2-1 in their group tie stage. Let us see if they can repeat that performance as the lowest ranked team in their group.

 

Saudi Arabia wasn't able to repeat their performance and was eliminated but there were still many upsets by other countries in this tournament with both higher ranked nations Germany and Belgium both bowing out in the group stage.

Argentina though demonstrated their class by winning the final games in the group stage after losing to Saudi Arabia to qualify for the group of 16.

 

Yeah this men's cup is absolutely wild. Everyone is shocked at how many upsets there have been. It's utterly unprecedented. As I mentioned in the "random facts" thread, I'm gonna have to do an analysis of historical upsets at some point soon. (Maybe this afternoon after the men's group stage is over)

 

Lots of drama though.

Pretty dramatic final day for group stage E. At one point both top ranked nations like Germany and Spain were in danger of getting eliminated when Costa Rica took the lead over Germany but the latter scored 2 goals later ensuring Spain's entry into the group of 16. That didn't stop Germany from going out though with Spain and Japan advancing instead with the latter squeaking thru by literally a few millimeters when VAR showed the ball touching the goal line by a few mm before it went thru Spain's goal giving them the one goal win they needed to advance.

 

I sure hope it’s ENG v USA

 

I predict the next WWC will be the most watch WWC in history and have the social media engagements. I'm going for the low hanging fruits...

 

Most of the commentators on the most recent WOSO podcast that talks about Grp A(which is the first group discussed) think that the Philippines will finish 3rd in Grp A which I think is realistic considering all the injuries that NZWNT has sustained and their recent record of 10 straight winless games with the most recent a 0-3 loss to lower ranked Nigeria.

New Zealand have been beset with injuries to key players like Abby Erceg, Anna Green, Ria Percival, Annalie Longo, Rosie White with 3 of those players(Erceg, Green and White) definitely ruled out of the Women's World Cup.

I still hope though that the PWNT can get a positive surprise result(win or draw) in one of their other 2 games against Norway and Switzerland along with a win over NZ to help them advance although I agree that this would be a difficult to do considering this is their first time in the WC.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2fj22xiylovVcahqTe0mwU