Pre-match: USA v Netherlands Round of 16 12/3 10 am ET

I agree with you. Apologies that my quoting of posts didn't come off that way earlier. I wanted to give you credit on the idea.

 

Well, once you disconnect the catheter, check to make sure the blood pressure isn't too high or too low, then feed him the blue pill, and you wait for the magic to happen....


...but yeah, it hasn't been happening, so far, anyway.

 

Gregg prefers Cialis. He's got this.

 

and this isn’t groupthink?

 

I'm not sure i agree or not. Like you, I would expect mostly the same but Berhalter seems to me to be the type that sometimes overthink things. (sometimes it works sometimes not). How many coaches change their centerback pairing in the middle of the worldcup? CCV was a huge surprise to me. Up top he has alternated so, even though I expect to see Sargent start, I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Ferreira start (or less likely Wright imo). Reyna has barely gotten a sniff, but could he start? possibly. (Reyna would probably be more likely than Ferreira imo). Maybe Scally starts instead of Dest?

I don't know. I don't really expect any one of those changes I mentioned but Berhalter frequently seems to do things that surprise and almost nothing will surprise me at this point.

 

Nope, thems the facts:

1. We don't score enough, and

2. The coach is an imbecile. Well, perhaps he's a "foolish imbecile," not just a garden variety imbecile.

These are the reasons that will eventually lead to an exit from the tournament, unfortunately.

 

I actually think our chance creation has improved every match. That may not be saying much, but every game it feels like our passing and movement around the box get a little more dangerous. The other thing to remember is that it's flat out hard to score goals. That's why when people name the "best player of X era", it's invariably just a list of attackers. The ability to unlock the defense is maybe the most valuable skill. Argentina had the ball all game against Poland today and still only found 2 goals. It's hard to put 3, 4, or 5 in the net.

A gambler might say we're just about due for a bit of luck in this department. We've had a lot of near misses, yet the fluke goal hasn't been there. The Dempsey goal from 2010 or the Jermaine Jones screamer from 2014 haven't happened yet. The guys haven't scored a single goal yet where you say, "That really shouldn't have happened." Saturday would be a good time for that to change.

 

Teams look inconsistent on offense in this tournament. Spain, France, England, Belgium, Argentina, etc…everyone is inconsistent. This World Cup is different: teams had to abruptly transition from their club season to national team duty. They are all less prepared. Offensive execution typically suffers in all sports when there is little time to prepare. I think that’s what we are seeing across the board. Teams are finding their way in the heat of battle.

Oddly enough, all of Berhalter’s preparation with getting teammates together on cues and player movement over the past two years is paying off now. We are not scoring goals yet, but we are consistently dominating play in a way that has impressed world observers like we never have before.

 

Quoting myself like a dork.

And if Pulisic is hurt...75% Aaronson, 25% Reyna
And if Sargent is hurt...60% Wright, 40% Jesus

 

Teams like this US team are really dangerous once the knockout games begin. They are young enough to play without feeling pressure, and they are good enough to whip you up and down the field.

It feels like something may be brewing here.

Pulisic’s goal and the injury it took to put it on the board is the type of thing that inspires young peers to go out and take it to another level.

I am excited for this next one. It feels like something is building.

 

That’s definitely not a bad idea, because I don’t see how we win this unless we have a multiple goal lead after 70, if we go with MMA

 

Do we have one of the top defenses in the tournament?

Only three teams have conceded zero non-PK goals - us, Morocco, and Brazil. Those two teams have only played two games thus far.

Is it talent? Coaching? Luck? Small sample size?

 

Trying something for the sake of trying something is generally a bad strategy. I get that a lot of fans like the idea, but if you are actually a decision maker, simply doing something because it is different is out of ideas.

Plus, I think you missed the point. The point isn't to score a bunch of goals; it's to advance. Yes, they help with advancement ... but so does preventing goals.

I have no issues with Gio Reyna and would be happy to see him play. But the idea the playing Gio Reyna at the false 9 is going to work because other things haven't is a massive logical fallacy.

Especially over 20 minutes. It's soccer. The average score is like 1.5-1.

 

You and the others overate the starters and underate the bench. And it's not as though making it through the mediocre Group B was some sort of romp. This team struggled on the offensive end. It has struggled for most of GGG's tenure. Rotation might actually improve things.

 

I'm not betting a knock out game on Luca de la Torre being anywhere near as good as Yunus Musah for a variety of reasons. Especially after basically not playing for the last six months.

Some of our subs are great and I have no issues. Some of them are clearly not as good.

 

I didn't suggest Torre was 'anywhere near as good as Yunus Musah'.

 

A mention had been made of Croatia's 2018 run. Only 3 of their players started each of the first 4 matches. They rotated heavily for the 3rd group stage match against Iceland.

 

I didn't say you did.

I'm just not starting him in a knockout round unless I have to. I've got Reyna and Aaronson that I'm completely comfortable with. I guess Ferreira can't be worse than Haji if Sargent's hurt. CCV is kinda borderline.

Other than that, we're compensating, and I'm leaning hard to let's win until we burn out over trying to find rest for guys with players under the level.

That's all. I get that we are burning guys out. But I'm not going to risk a loss today for a game that doesn't happen if I lose today. Ride or die.

 

My biggest concern entering this match is fatigue. I love the quality of our XI but they’ve logged a lot of hard minutes and guys like McKennie can’t really go 90. So the longer it goes without a US goal, the more ill be concerned about our ability to win the game. A lot of guys looked done at 80 against Iran. I dread ET and having to play 120 minutes.

Also, I don’t believe much in guys like Morris, Acosta, Moore or some of the other subs we’ve seen.

We need to develop a bit more quality depth. Especially at the 6 and 8.

 

On goal scoring at this Cup: so far, 2.43 goals per match have been averaged.
The average for the 2018 Cup was 2.64.
2014 had 2.67.
2010 had 2.27.
So, goals are certainly being scored in the range of previous Cups' averages. The US have simply been garbage in the attack. No excuses.

 

So very little disagreement, then.

 

Turner, Adams, and Ream only ones who need to play every minute.
Dest and Jedi may need subbing in the Dutch match. But fullbacks can marshal their energy by attacking less.
McKennie is nursing a knock. And he hasn't been great. He can be rotated.
Musah looked tapped. He is only in his first club season as consistent starter. He needs rotation.
Acosta has been a capable rotation starter through 2 cycles. Like Kyle Beckerman in WC2014, so long as Acosta is used in the right role, he will hold his own.

 

There are 3 concerns and 1 silver lining for the US against Holland IMO:

1. the US hasn't shown it has a bench nearly as good as its top guns -- and its top guns need to deal with knocks, injuries and question marks regarding their fitness to play. Just being able to suit up isn't enough; refer to Sardar Azmoun against the US before being subbed out at halftime and his comments since.
2. the US, at the level it showed the first 60 minutes against Wales, England and Iran, should be favored to beat Holland. But that is a hard level to repeatedly duplicate. Especially factoring fatigue, injuries and point 1 above.
3. the US has begun creating better chances but still not shown a target forward that will scare its opponents.
4. the good news is that Holland have shown to be at the level of Denmark. Sounds more scary than it ought to be. Ask Tunisia and Australia -- 2 teams around the level of the US in the 2nd half of this tournament when its top guns weren't blazing with top level moves and passes.

 

I mean, I guess.
If you want to go by that logic, our goals allowed PG at .333 when the average is 2.43, our defense is almost godlike. Don't like that? I don't either. Because these are all just numbers.

 

Rewatched the Netherlands-Senegal game last night.... a couple thoughts jumped out at me:

First, Virgil Van Dijk is a freak of nature. He’s like the old Tom Brady of his backline. He has so much physical and mental control of his defense. Everything goes through him. He just has that special command and presence that it’s going to be hard to get our offense going, just because of him. That said, we all know Virgil Van Dijk.

I still need to find a weakness in his game. But I don’t think trying to casually loft balls over the top nor casually dribble past him is going to do much for us. We’ve got to figure out a way to exploit the sides. Move their defense side to side to open pockets of space in order to get this monster to bleed.

Let me tell you, Van Dijk is the main man who scares me on this team.

Secondly, Frenkie de Jong is looking good. He’s got that slick, agile profile combined with some lethal passing. Where he seems to be the deadliest is when he drops back into that deep lying playmaker role.

I don’t know if this will mean that we need our center forward to mark that or if we do one of our midfielders, but I don’t want to pull Tyler Adams out of position to defend this threat. We’re going to need to McKennie or someone like Acosta (which I don’t want to start Acosta - I think that’s thinking too negatively) to get on him.

Maybe this is a game designed for Aaronson who is good at harassing.

Thirdly, they play a little how we do. Slow progression. Moreover, they’re much better at defending in transition than Iran. So expect them to be good at shutting down counters.

Because so, I don’t know if maybe the key to this game is similar to the key against England. Understand there’ll be some back and forth. Expect them to have more of the chances. But understand we’ll have our opportunities too. Just we have to be more clinical when we get our chances.

Now, I’m obviously not going to say ignore Cody Gakpo. You don’t get three goals in three games and be someone who can be ignored. But I didn’t entirely see this 90 minute threat from him like I saw from De Jong and Van Dijk. He just seems like the special kind of player that can take his chances when he gets them.

To me, that means we need to be mindful of him throughout the game. Cut off his chances. But realize, he’s not their engine. De Jong and Van Dijk are.

Furthermore, I would say that De Jong and Van Dijk seem to have a much bigger individual impact than anyone from England ~ who seemed to have their whole team be a threat. But this could play in our favor. If we think of it this way, take De Jong or Van Dijk out of the game, and this becomes a very vanilla Dutch team.

Now, the Dutch have some physical weapons. Most of us know Depay. We’ve all seen Gakpo. Of course, Van Dijk looks like a man playing against children. But this is a more technical than athletic side.

That said, I would say that Senegal’s most dangerous weapon is their physicality. But the Dutch were able to neutralize their attacks quickly because of solid and swift organization.

All in all, the Dutch didn’t look unbeatable against Senegal, but I’ve got to be honest, it’s clear to me that they’re a little more polished than we are now. At least, from rewatching the Senegal game, which of course, they won that game, so that’s example of the Dutch game going well.

I expect that this game is going to be a lot like the England game, and it’s going to be decided based on player errors and based on taking advantage of your chances. I think we have an opportunity to be the more aggressive team, winning our duels and so forth, so that seems to maybe be in our favor. But we’re going to have to dig very deep and bring our A game to this one. If we come out flat, I’m afraid that we could be embarrassed.