NSR Greece political thread

SF19 · Sep 29, 2022

https://www.ft.com/content/82e279b8-e1fe-40b8-923d-1dfddec670f1

In a closed European People’s party group session, which took place on the island of Crete on Tuesday, Mitsotakis drew a parallel between Erdogan’s rhetoric and Russian president Vladimir Putin’s language before the invasion of Ukraine.

The most likely worst-case scenario, Ülgen said, was an incident “where the two sides came close to a limited military confrontation” over a disputed island or rock formation before international powers stepped in to cool tensions. He added: “To me, that is the possible confrontation scenario but nothing more than that.”
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SF19 · Oct 4, 2022

Another powder keg ready to blow?

https://news.yahoo.com/north-koreas-latest-missile-test-121927942.html

At the root of that tension is the challenge posed by China’s growing military strength and its assertiveness on the world stage — which was loudly displayed in August with Chinese war games that virtually blockaded Taiwan to protest House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-ruled island.

China’s aggressive posture has emboldened North Korea and pushed Tokyo and Seoul deeper under Washington’s security umbrella, analysts say.
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SF19 · Oct 4, 2022

More Turkish threats:

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1194797/turkeys-bahceli-unleashes-fresh-rant-against-greece/

Devlet Bahceli, the head of Turkey’s Nationalist Movement party and government coalition partner, said today:

Sovereignty of the islands of the northern Aegean, therefore, belongs to Turkey, without doubt and legally. The same is the case with the Dodecanese. (...) I am telling the world that we will not allow our rights to be trampled on. We will take out the eyes of anyone eyeing our rights.
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Another day, another threat from the kind of people who must think the Dark Ages was a great time.

SF19 · Oct 5, 2022

Nuclear Annihilation Is a Threat Again

An op-ed for NYT from Michael Dobb, a former foreign correspondent who covered the collapse of communism and the author of “One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/opinion/ukraine-russia-nuclear-war.html

Two nuclear-armed states on a collision course with no obvious exit ramp. An erratic Russian leader using apocalyptic language — “if you want us to all meet in hell, it’s up to you.” Showdowns at the United Nations, with each side accusing the other of essentially gambling with Armageddon.
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In October 1962, it was President John Kennedy who declared a naval blockade, or quarantine, of Cuba to prevent reinforcement of the Soviet military position on the island. This put the onus on his Kremlin counterpart, Nikita Khrushchev, to either accept the clearly signaled American condition for ending the crisis (a full withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba) or risk nuclear war.

This time, the roles are reversed: Mr. Putin is seeking to enforce a red line by insisting he will use “all available means,” including his nuclear arsenal, to defend the newly, unilaterally expanded borders of Mother Russia. President Biden has promised to support Ukraine’s attempts to defend itself. It is unclear how Mr. Putin will react to his red line being ignored.
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What both Kennedy and Khrushchev did possess was an intuitive understanding of the peril confronting not just their own countries but the entire world if the crisis was allowed to escalate. That is why they maintained a back channel to communicate with each other privately (through the president’s brother, Attorney General Robert Kennedy, and the Soviet ambassador to Washington, Anatoly Dobrynin) even as they denounced each other publicly. It is also why they acted swiftly to reach a compromise deal (kept secret for decades) that involved the dismantling of U.S. medium-range missiles in Turkey in exchange for a Soviet nuclear withdrawal from Cuba.
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Kremlin archives show that for all his bloodcurdling rhetoric, Khrushchev was determined to find a peaceful solution as soon as it became clear that his nuclear gamble had failed. Mr. Putin, by contrast, has chosen to raise the stakes at every critical point. Escalation has become his preferred tactic.
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SF19 · Oct 11, 2022

Secretive Turkish intelligence unit set to conduct clandestine operation in Greece

https://nordicmonitor.com/2022/10/s...t-to-strike-greece-in-a-false-flag-operation/

The MIT unit, the existence of which has never been publicly admitted, is a relatively new tool in the arsenal of Turkey’s intelligence agency and will be put to use for the first time in setting up a clandestine, military-style operation against a Western country.

The plot includes several options, ranging from sabotage in Greek islands close to the Turkish mainland to raising a Turkish flag on one or several uninhabited islets and rock formations as well as conducting a false flag operation to justify a Turkish response. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is still considering the alternatives submitted to him by his confidant, Hakan Fidan, the head of MIT, and has not yet decided which course of action he wants to take.
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For decades, MIT had no military-type operational capability, and its mandate had been mainly confined to information gathering operations to provide the best intelligence to policymakers in Turkey.
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Turkey has a well known history of staging false flags. This is also a sign of Erdogan's distrust for some in the military, as evidenced by this trial of 12 ex-admirals:

https://www.duvarenglish.com/turkis...over-montreux-convention-statement-news-61403

In April 2021, 103 retired admirals issued a statement emphasizing the importance of the Montreux Convention for Turkish security.

The statement has drawn a strong backlash from ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) officials who saw it as a direct challenge from the military to the civilian government. The government went as far as to accuse the former soldiers of suggesting a coup.
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SF19 · Oct 14, 2022

I read some Turkish news sources on this story (not just their English language ones). Same boring propagandic talking points from them as always. eKathimerini, a Greek news source, was more to the point.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1195597/greek-and-turkish-defense-ministers-meet/

Greek aides to Panagiotopoulos were reserved about the outcome of the 40-minute meeting, because, they said, meetings between the two are always cordial, but this does not often translate into a de-escalation in the heated rhetoric of Turkish officials, Akar himself included.
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That's par for the course.

Panagiotopoulos, for his part, declared himself satisfied that during his meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, the latter conceded and said so clearly for the first time that Turkey’s disputing Greek sovereignty over areas in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean is unacceptable.
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Erdogan won't like that and that's something the Turkish news sources left out.

SF19 · Dec 14, 2022

Erdogan's likeliest political rival for the next general election has been sentenced to jail.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-imamoglu-sentenced-to-jail-over-fools-insult

İmamoğlu did not attend any trial hearings or the sentencing, and is expected to appeal against the ruling. The appeal would allow him to stay in office in the meantime, but he would remain weighed down by court hearings for up to a year and a half as the country heads towards a general election.
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SF19 · Feb 2, 2024

Greece finally got the F35 deal.

Also Biden is gifting Greece surplus weapons and in turn Greece is gifting her surpluses to Ukraine.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davida...ine-and-pro-russia-republicans-cant-stop-him/

The Americans even offered a reward once the donation is complete. “If these capabilities are of interest to Ukraine, and pending an assessment of their status and value by the U.S. government, we can explore opportunities for possible additional foreign armed forces financing of up to $200 million for Greece.”

The Greek military operates, or holds in storage, an array of Soviet- and U.S.-designed weaponry that would be of immediate value to the Ukrainian military—in particular, S-300 and Hawk long-range air-defense batteries, Tor and Osa short-range air-defense vehicles and ZU-23-2 air-defense guns. Also: ammunition for all these systems.
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SF19 · Feb 2, 2024

Putin will visit Erdogan. It's his first such meeting with NATO country since the invasion.

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1230703/kremlin-putin-to-discuss-ukraine-with-turkeys-erdogan/