Rank the USMNT forwards

I think Sargent was dealing with an injury towards the end of the season and couldn't be called in but I agree with this. Sargent absolutely improved as a player after that September window.

Even though they play completely different, I feel like Jesus and Sargent are similar players in that they both do the little things that improve the team, even though they miss chances they should make.

I feel like there's a pretty reasonable chance Sargent provides everything Jesus does from a pressing and possession standpoint along with a better aerial threat.

If he gets to play forward at Norwich (who knows at this point) I think Sargent will have a decent season as he's shown he can score consistently at sub-Big 4 league levels.

 

I think Jesus is a better striker right now -- perhaps I am wrong but the last time I saw Sargent he just wasn't effective getting in dangerous places, and I don't think Jesus' finishing is as bad or a persistent flaw. He hits it too soft but otherwise this is a lot of perception, IMO.

That said, I think bringing in a bunch of forwards who are statistically hot but are part of the mediocre blob when you watch them -- Wright, or say, Brandon Vazquez (although I do like his hold up game) -- does not necessarily translate to a strong improvement in scoring versus someone like Pepi or Jesus. People talk the hot hand, but I've seen little evidence the hot hand works. The hot hands in 2010 are often cited; no one mentions that none of them scored.

So yeah, I wonder if we're going to play roulette, why not at least get a dude who defends and passes, etc.? If someone really pops, great. If not, let's go with an all-around contributor or try out someone from another position.

 

Do you know how the multiple works? It's not the Fotmob * multiplier, or else Pepi would be 10. something.

Our perhaps a calculation error?

 

Somebody asked in the reddit thread already (may have been you but just in case), and he said it starts off a base of 6, which is what your score is for walking onto the field. So for example if you score a 7.0 with a 1.5 multiplier it's a 7.5 (so basically 6 + (1 x 1.5)).

 

Given the general way models like these are developed this data shows pretty clearly that the differences between the top 10 guys is actually pretty small. Plus it doesn't take into account the eye ball test and how they have actually performed with the Nats. If we had a must win game tomorrow no way Pefok is my first attacker off the becnh. And shoot Pepi is not even anywhere to be seen as he barely cracks the top 20.

I don't know anything about this model but I suspect it is almost totally weighted toward goals and assists. I get that is the #1 job of your #9 but I think way less than many think. Todays game is way more fluid than having a statue stand around the PK spot to bang goals.

 

I think it is interesting how bunched up our forwards are in terms of quality and it rings pretty true to me. No one has made the position their own because no one is clearly better than the rest. It makes me wonder if we would have been better off making a decisive decision on who will lead the line and letting them gain familiarity with the team and how to work within it rather than constant rotation. If no option is a clear winner, would we get a better ultimate outcome letting a single player take most of the minutes and getting better at reading his teammates rather than constantly swapping to no real benefit? I'd guess it would get the fan base even more annoyed at Berhalter for not giving their guy a chance, but it might have been a better way to get the best performance in the position out of several mediocre choices.

 

A striker scores goals or they don't. It doesn't matter whether they run like crazy or stand like a statute. Goalscorers score goals. We can, however, be a bit more discerning. We can look at (1) the ability to control a pass on a dime, (2) the shot selection and accuracy, and (3) off-the-ball movement to find goalscoring positions. Look at those criteria to find the best striker.

We have no "World Class" strikers, but Ferreira, Dike, and Pefok stand out to me, in that order. With 4 months to go, this order may change. Pepi still has a chance. I don't think anyone else does.

 

Totally disagree with that statement. And apparently you do too since you go on to explain the rest of the story.....lol.

 

I do and I don't. A striker who never scores any goals is useless. A striker that scores some goals and creates goals for others is useful. A striker that scores goals in every match is gold. The bottom line is there has to be some production. It can't be an academic exercise. It's not a Hollywood feel good film. It's more like Johnny Depp vs Amber Heard. If you poop the bed, you're out.

 

Agree. The key is to figure out how they score goals and why they don't. Do they score because they are continually in good places? Do they score because they are great receiving the ball and shielding it to work for a shot and then just deadly when they shoot? Do they score because the talent they are typically facing sucks? Do they do those things really well but can't finish? Do they not score goals because they never get in good positions? Etc etc etc.

Certainly you want your striker to score goals. Patently obvious. But what is not so obvious is that they still may be the best option you have for other reasons even when they don't score. Right now Ferreira has stepped up better than anyone else. Not that he's been a scoring machine. Far from it. But he's still #1 on my depth chart today.

 

Vasquez, Jesus, Pefok, Those are my three. Then chasm

 

I'm interested in knowing if you voted earlier, closer to when the poll was put up, and who you voted for. Personally, I voted very early on after the poll was set (May of 2022) and voted for Ferreira, Pepi, Dike and Ebobisse.

I see this poll is set to expire in 5 days. I'd love to see a new poll set up immediately after, expiring just before the September camp, followed by a final one (for this cycle) expiring on the date that the WC rosters must be submitted.

 

I think Pepi is in real danger of missing the World Cup. Ferreira and Pefok are tops right now. Jordan Pefok is a clear Bundesliga starter who played 78' and 70' minutes and has a goal to his name. I think Pepi is going to need to score a couple of goals to get into the September camp, and that's going to be tough with limited minutes. If I'm Berhalter, I don't take a striker to the WC who hasn't scored for club or country in the past year. Meanwhile, Brenden Vasquez is going to get called into camp as will Malik Tillman. Berhalter is only going to bring 3 or 4 strikers.

It's not that Pepi has played badly, he's just not been outstanding, and that is what is needed to push his way into the starting lineup. Pepi, if you're reading this, put the ball in the back of the net no matter what it takes. It will change the trajectory of your career.

 

This poll is, to me, exactly like a preseason college football poll. Pointless. Need data on which to base a poll. Having a poll on who is your best 9 for the national team is silly especially when players are included who have never even worn the National team jersey. Now I could see some interest in a poll right before the September call up announcement. At least we would have 6 weeks of club play by which to make a somewhat educated guess.

 

Interestingly, preseason polls are generally more predictive of end of season rankings than early season polls.

Looking at teams/players' overall talent and skillset is more accurate than overreacting to small sample size performance, as a whole.

I think about this in terms of what @MarioKempes posted. I don't know there's any real difference between Pepi scoring 1/2 goals and Pepi not in terms of actual ability and performance ... but it could make miles of difference in terms of him going.

 

Think about it from Pepi's POV. He will have confidence if he has scored in the Bundesliga. More confidence if he scores twice or more. He will know he can do it. On the flip side, if he still hasn't scored but goes to Qatar anyway, he will be questioning his own ability. He will overthink or try too hard.

Now think of it from Berhalter's POV. If he brings a Pepi who has not scored in over a year, he will be lambasted. If Pepi doesn't score, people will say, "You idiot. Why did you bring a striker to Qatar who hasn't scored in over a year? What were you thinking?"

 

I'm not disagreeing with the psychology here.

I'm just commenting that overall ability and talent tends to play out over small sample size evaluations. And finishing is particularly subject to wild variations on the latter.

That said, the World Cup is basically small sample size theater anyway. A lot of what we put up as clutch or brilliant choices tend to be things that could have gone either way and happen to go the right way.

 

I also find it odd that we discount penalties in those metrics, as if that skill isn't important.

Put the penalties back in.......................and the US-eligible goalscoring chart is:

Vasquez 15
Ferreira 14
Ebobisse 14
Arriola 9

By the way, close your eyes when looking at the assists chart. USMNT-eligibles far off the pace. Unless we want to claim Diego Fagundez. If we discount dual-nats that haven't played for us, Julian Araujo, etc......................is our leading assist man Ben Bender of Carolina?

 

I think discounting penalties is fine. Certainly the ability to score a penalty is important but it also depends on the rest of your team. If player X isn't one of the say top 2 guys who will take penalties during a match then its not a very important skill compared to what they can score during a match.

If player A and B are pretty equal in a coaches determination of their overall play then yes how good they are at penalties would be a tie breaker. But that isn't at important as to what they bring during 90 minutes of play.

 

You need to have balance of looking at what players are doing with their clubs in a given timeframe and understanding the individual qualities of the players involved. I feel like we get carried away with who scored each week, which is especially difficult to use as any reliable sort of barometer when we have guys playing for very different teams in very different leagues. It is simply not the same for guy who are struggling to score in top leagues versus guys getting goals in lesser leagues. Who's scoring at the moment will often be the guy who faces the lowest level of competition. There is no apples to apples way to compare our guys. And this is why player evaluation is such an important part of a coach's job and involves more than just browsing recent statistics.

It will all boil down to who Berhalter rates highest in the end. The tricky part right now is you usually have a pretty good idea who a coach prefers by this close to the cup after a four year cycle but we have very few answers for who will play up top for this team. I mean Ferriera looks like a good bet right now, but he wasn't even in the team until the home stretch. If anything, I wish Berhalter would be more bold and make his calls earlier and get guys working together as a unit over constantly re-evaluating each week and calling in a rotating cast of guys at a similar level. It all seems a bit reactionary and you end up where we are right now with little idea who will be the guy with the Cup getting closer very quickly. In Berhalter's defense, such a young squad makes identifying guys up front more difficult than when you have a more stable group and the younger players are such a clear improvement, you have to bring them in with less to go on than what you would have for guys who have been around for several years. But, we do have several important spots on the field still up in the air with only a couple friendlies to go.

 

I think Pepi should study this fellow, Pippo Inzaghi, the ultimate goal poacher.





Pepi Inzaghi

 

If you want to give credit to a player for scoring penalties at a higher rate than standard (75%), go for it. If you want to give a player credit for drawing pens at a higher rate than standard, that's great.

But who takes a penalty is a discretionary act, and giving someone a full goal for it is way overstating their contribution when it's basically expected.

 

I dont think I voted, but Im pretty good at hindsighting it from when this poll was made.

I think I would have said Pepi, Pefok, and Hoppe.

But, Ive always known forward is the most volatile position and the on that could be shook up the most, so I feel no shame in that assessment. Nor do I with my current one. Scoring goals is scoring goals. Just like shot stopping is shot stopping for a keeper. Honestly, if a forward brings literally nothing else to the table but bag goals and has a niche for being at the right place at the right time, dont really care about hold up game, ball control, athleticism, etc. I mean, forwards like that have actually existed; out and out poachers. Guys you cant explain it that just have the instinct. Luckily, all of the aforementioned at least have some of the aforementioned strengths. Thats why I like Vazquez as the complete package. I like Jesus for his false 9-ness and nose for goal. I like Pefok for his proven track record in Europe. But I also like Pepi for producing when it counted for the nats. And I still love Hoppe's X-factor-ness. But........the first three are the ones cranking goals, so, thats where my current vote goes.