Poll: When will we hit a developmental level where our excess talent starts to take over MLS?

Discussion in 'Youth National Teams' started by gogorath, Jul 25, 2022.

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When do we get our Nico Lodeiros, our Sebastian Driussis?

  1. We've already got them, they've just all gone to Europe or are too young: Ledezma, Mendez, etc

    7.7%
  2. It's a stylistic difference. We're not building playmakers at that talent level.

    19.2%
  3. We're still a few years out

    53.8%
  4. We'll never get there, or by the time we do, MLS salaries will be high enough that it won't happen

    19.2%
  1. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    #51 Mahtzo1, Jul 28, 2022
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2022
    I see your point but disagree. I definitely expect the level of foreign talent that is willing to choose MLS over Europe will increase but I also feel that it is important to consider that the talent in other countries is more mature. The best Brazilians, Germans, English etc won't be getting all that much better than they already are. The depth in those countries won't be changing significantly either. As we improve, we catch up.

    What I do believe is the most significant barrier is the fact that the foreign pool is large, but countering that is the huge, still largely untapped population in the US. The whole of the European Union has 500,000,000ish people while the US has 330,000,000ish people which makes us competitive in our domestic league if our talent increases significantly. I believe we are far from "mature" as a soccer nation and fully expect the level and depth of our talent to increase significantly over the next decade at least and I expect that rate of increase to be greater than for the "mature" countries.

    To consider the highest reasonable level of foreign talent, assume that MLS becomes fully mature with a level similar to the top 5 leagues. The top 5 leagues in Europe aren't going anywhere soon, so even if MLS gets to a similar level, we will never take the majority of their best players (imo) and the rest of the world would likely be split fairly evenly among the 6 league (again looking waaay down the line when MLS might potentially be on the level of the current top 5 leagues). Just as all of the top 5 leagues keep many if not most of their domestic talent, I would expect MLS to do the same. considering our size as a country alone, I think it is reasonable to think the majority of the top talent in MLS would be American.

    oh by the way edit: I DO agree that it will be quite some time before the top dp level positions in MLS are dominated by Americans. I still expect most of the top young American prospects to choose Europe. For the time being, I expect very few to go the route that Ferreira has chosen. The first area where I think Americans will begin to show up and displace foreign talent is spots 3-23 in the team. this will happen as the quantity and quality of the depth improves. A guy like Ebobisse, or Eric Williams, or Brandon Vazquez may never be a dp at the level of a Robbie Keane, Nicholas Lodeira or (insert name here) but very well could prove to be a top level MLS player for many years to come. As our development system improves (from u2-u20) we will have more and more players that fit that description. We will also have more like Reyna and others, but they won't choose MLS until it reaches a tipping point in quality and salary. MLS retaining the top prospects is the second stage and if I have to guess, won't occur regulary for another 10ish years, although we may see the return of some top players in 5-8ish years when they reach their late 20's to early 30's. Would Puisic return at 29? I don't know, but I'll ask him. ;)
     
  2. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is a great point. We're too pragmatic in a sporting way to ever produce guys like Lodeiro. Our style is more similar to what European countries produce, and none of the big 5 countries in Europe are producing players like him.

    I think you raise a good point here. There are two variables - the level of the American player, and the level of MLS (which also relates to the level of European leagues, which may shift by the time this conversation becomes relevant).

    The way I see it, MLS will never truly compete with the top, top European teams. Too much history and the lure of things that have existed for a long time like the winning the FA Cup, English leagues, La Liga, Bundesliga, Champions League, etc will always keep the majority of Europeans in Europe. You'll get a few Europeans if you pay well enough, but not a ton. The same goes for TV contracts, and the like - you're just never going to pull more eyes to MLS than the EPL. But you can pull more than Ligue 1, and probably as much as the Bundesliga.

    I think the equation changes for South Americans. I think you can really get some high, high level talent if you're MLS one day from there. They don't have as much of an attachment to European club competitions.

    That, along with the parity of MLS, makes it difficult to ever truly consider MLS a top, top league. You're never going to have a team that's got a roster as good as Chelsea, because then you'd have 30 teams that are going to be really close to Chelsea's level. That isn't going to happen since you won't have enough talent. So what you're going to end up with are 30 teams that resemble mid-table Premier League teams at best, and more likely 30 teams that look like mid-to-low table Bundesliga teams, just based on how much talent you can actually get.

    The only real way to get to the 330 players required to fill 30 starting lineups at that level is going to be with a lot of Americans and South Americans. You're just not going to lure enough Europeans over. So at that point, it's really how we see American soccer developing against, mostly, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia, and Mexico.

    Do we see the US ever becoming so prolific at producing players that owners trying to win a trophy choose to not pluck a player from those countries? I'm not sure I do. I'm also not sure that there won't always be good Americans leaving every year. Every club is a selling club that isn't Real Madrid.
     
    Mahtzo1 repped this.
  3. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    With regards to this, I'm not sure who has the latest graph of U20 and U23 minutes given to American players, but we've seen it on these board frequently enough and it's shown a steady rise over the years. That's really what we care about, and a better indicator. MLS can't control if they're selling all their good players at a young age.
     
  4. ussoccer97531

    ussoccer97531 Member+

    Oct 12, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    I think we also need to have players that emerge later on. It can’t only be the 20 best players at age 20 per birth year. The reason why countries like France or Brazil have so much depth is because they always seem to have a few players at a time that don’t emerge as good players until their mid/late 20’s that end up playing for the best teams in the world.
     
    gogorath repped this.
  5. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For more context. fig.png fig2.png
     
    gogorath, Boysinblue and ussoccer97531 repped this.
  6. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And drilling down on U23s:
    fig.png fig2.png
     
    deejay, gogorath and ussoccer97531 repped this.
  7. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But an American Soccer league has already competed with the rest of the world and lure many great players to it. The NASL eventually folded because most teams couldn't compete with the Cosmos but it does show that if you have the highest salaries in the world you will get a lot of great players. That new golf league is showing that very thing.
     
  8. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I concede on the NASL, but for golf those players can still play in Majors. I think if you take away the Champions league, things change. But who knows what club soccer looks like at that point.
     
  9. Kombucha

    Kombucha Member+

    Jul 1, 2016
    Club:
    --other--
    Also some of those guys are getting more guaranteed than their career earnings over 15 year careers and they are still getting turned down by a lot of players.

    Would be equivalent of paying guys like $100 Million a year to play MLS
     

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